HappyDays Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said: One question, do you think McCarthy is a top 5 QB talent? Or are you just saying he will get picked there as an extreme over reach. This guy averaged 22 passes pee game in college. The thing that gets NFL teams excited about McCarthy is a lot of those passes came in high leverage situations. 3rd and long gotta have it moments, etc. There is a projection there for sure but 3rd down success rate is something NFL scouts and executives value much more than the general public, because that's what wins championships. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: My only nitpick is, if the board does fall like this, I think the Chiefs end up with Franklin or McConky over Polk. Out of those 3, I'd be happiest if the Chiefs went with Polk. That's why if I'm the Giants, I'm looking to trade out of that spot and pick up an extra 1st for next year. They're stuck with Jones this year no matter what. Trade down, use picks to build the roster around the QB. Then use that extra 1st to maneuver around next year to get a QB. There are just soooo many teams taking QBs this year, and the pool is not nearly as deep as those folks are hoping. Yeah I would consider that too if I was the Giants. But I mocked them moving up as there seems to be genuine interest. But they could also be trying to leverage that interest to get Vikings, Broncos, or Raiders to bite and give up multiple firsts to swap spots with them. My main issue with the concept of the Giants trading back is that I have a hard time seeing them passing on one of the big 3 WRs if they don’t go QB. Which is why I feel like the interest in JJ has at least some merit. But this is why this may be my favorite draft in years, so many directions I can see it going, especially in the top 5 that can really alter things quite a bit after. There are really no locks after pick 1 on who is going where other than maybe Joe Alt to Titans being close tone as I can’t see the board playing out in a way where they don’t take Alt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 (edited) 3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said: Well done. Excellent analysis. One question, do you think McCarthy is a top 5 QB talent? Or are you just saying he will get picked there as an extreme over reach. This guy averaged 22 passes pee game in college. He is a game manager with good accuracy. Ok but not elite size. Ok but not very good speed. Decent arm. Just curious if you think he is a top 5 talent? No, he's definitely not a top 5 prospect in this draft, but because he is a QB he has a good shot at going 4th or 5th if either AZ or Chargers get the right offer. Now, in NE surprises and either trades out of 3 to a team wanting a WR ir they themselves surprise and just take a WR at 3 instead of a QB then JJ will not go in top 5. But if the first 3 players taken are QBs I think there’s a decent chance someone is gonna try and move up and get him with 4 more very QB needy teams between picks 4 and 13. Edited April 22 by Alphadawg7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said: I think Bowers is a steal for anybody outside the top 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes before at least 1 of the big 3 WR’s I think Bowers only real shot at single digits is bears at 9 or someone trading up to get him. Giants, Titans, and Atlanta at 6, 7, and 8 aren't going to take a TE. Giants are going QB or one of the big 3 WR's, Titans are a near lock to take Alt at OT, and Atlanta doesn't need a TE with Kyle Pitts there to work with Cousins and more likely to address their very needs defensive front 7. Bears though are interesting...ive mentioned already it wouldn't shock me to see them take Bowers. WR would be a luxury pick with DJ Moore there as a legit WR1 long term and Keenan Allen as a short term bridge opposite of him. TE can be a young QB's best friend, so wouldn't surprise me at to take Bowers or OL instead of WR. Also, with only 4 picks (although a good 4 picks) a trade back isn't out of the question and then who knows who that team is targeting. They could be trying to get ahead of Jets for Bowers. But more than likely I think its most likely Bowers goes somewhere from 10 or later personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: Here is my official version 2.0 on a first round Mock. Not sure I will do a v3.0, this one took me 3 days and a lot of hours of research and calls to some people I know and trust with actual insider insight. I would love to update one before the draft Thursday, but not sure I will have the time to put in between now and then to make a meaningful stab at it. I still want to expand it to a 2 rounder at some point as well and do have a working draft, however, since this one took me 3 days with lots of changes along the way as new info came about, it kept affecting my 2nd round and I didn't want to just throw up a round 2 without properly working through it. So hopefully I can find some time to finish that as I was enjoying round 2 as well. CLICK HERE FOR LINK TO v1.0 NOTE: Trades are color coated. The two teams linked in the trade are marked with *TRADE* in the same color to easily track who that trade played out on both ends of it. Compensation in bold of the same color on the higher pick of the trade. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC: No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC: I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done. And as we get closer, the odds for this pick being Jayden are going down while Mayes are going up...just saying. New England - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: In v1.0, I previously had them passing on a QB to take MHJ as I kind of thought their eyes were set on Maye, but now there is buzz and stuff I am hearing that they like both Maye and Daniels, so with that in mind, NE now makes the smarter choice and goes and gets a QB. *TRADE* - Giants (via Arizona): JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: This is the same trade I made in the TSW mock draft as GM of the Cardinals, moving back to 6 with NY Giants, who know Jones ain't their guy, and that teams at 11, 12, and 13 who are all looking for a QB. So Giants take their shot here and move up to insure one of the other teams doesn't leap frog them at 4 or 5 and gets their guy. Giants have been doing a LOT of homework on the QB's and reports are that they have had great meetings with McCarthy and a great dinner with him at Ruth's Chris and are high on him. Cardinals already armed with 2 first rounders and 3 third rounders don't need a bounty on a move back here, so they opt to take the smaller offer and stay within range to still get one of the big 3 WR's. Comp received: ARI gets 6 & 70 - NYG gets 4 Chargers - Marvin Harrison, Jr: Chargers win the lottery here landing what is seen as the best player in the draft thanks to the Giants move up to McCarthy as they give Herbert an elite talent after losing their top 2 WR's. (Odunze wouldn't surprise me here either). *TRADE* - Cardinals (via Giants): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington: Previously, I have had Nabers here, but I am hearing more and more that there are teams who have Odunze as the 1st or 2nd WR in this draft. Murray had his best success with a big WR with excellent hands and catch radius in Hopkins, so I am starting to think Odunze could be the pick here. Having lost their top WR's, they still add an elite weapon for Murray while adding some extra draft capital along the way. Cardinals are in a great position to really reset their foundation with the amount of draft ammo they have in the first 4 rounds of this draft. (Would be MHJ if Chargers went Odunze) Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame: Not a lot to say here, maybe the safest mock pick in the draft outside Caleb...Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select. Atlanta - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas: Atlanta looks to bolster their DL with the best DT in the draft who is a guy that just moves different than the other DT's in the draft, who can get off the ball and shoot the gaps to wreak havoc. He is as much a force against the run as he is the pass as well and who could become an anchor up front for Atlanta for years to come. One of the edge rushers could be in this spot too such as Turner or Verse. *TRADE* Colts (via Chicago) Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: While I know WR is a popular pick here, but its a bit of a luxury pick based on the needs of the team already having a long term WR1 and Keenan Allen for at least this season. This is a deep WR draft, they can find a guy to play opposite Moore later with the draft pick ammo they just added. There is just more and more buzz I am seeing about Bears maybe looking OL early, especially since Caleb has even been on social media about the importance of OL and having that been an issue for him at USC. And if they are willing to pass on Nabers, they can move back here and still snag a premiere prospect on the OL and add more draft capital given they only have 4 picks. For me, I think to move back and pass on one of the big 3 WRs, there needs to be enough draft compensation to do it, so I am looking at Colts here who are now staring down the barrel of a loaded Houston team in a loaded AFC conference in general. So they make a move here to get an elite weapon to pair with Richardson and Pittman. Comp received: CHI gets 15, 82, 117 - IND gets 9 NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: With the Jets spending in FA on the OL (albeit short term help) I think it's a pretty good bet they look to appease Aaron Rodgers and go Bowers here, who is a mismatch nightmare, and maybe the best TE prospect of the past decade. If one of the big 3 WR's land here, then may be that player over Bowers. But I think they will be gone inside the top 10. Although I still wouldn't rule out OL here either as there are some real talented guys they could take to help anchor that line for years, but given they are in a win now mode, I think with the short term OL help addressed some already in free agency, they go ahead and take Bowers. Vikings - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: After not matching what Arizona wanted to move for a QB, Vikings stay true to their board and add what many regard as the top corner in the draft who has been lighting up the offseason. Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon: Originally had Penix here, but after reading more into it, seems there is more Denver interest in Bo and it feels like his accuracy and intelligence will be something Sean Payton will be more intrigued by given his days with Brees where those were 2 of his strong suits. Raiders - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington: This is another change for me, there seems to be a lot of growing buzz about Raiders and Penix. And HC Pierce has been vocal about the need to get a QB in a division with Mahomes and Herbert. There are a lot of injury concerns with Penix though, so while this may feel early, there is also the fact that Vikings pick again at 23 and with Nix gone here, Penix could easily be in play there. And trading back up above 23 would be costly. If they really like Penix as much as being stated, then trading back up in bottom of first or waiting and hoping he falls out of the first would be a huge gamble for the Raiders. I try not to get too caught up in buzz, but I have a hard time believing Raiders feel good about Aidan and Uncle Rico as their 2 QB's this year, so the Penix interest feels plausible. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St: With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. *TRADE* Bears (via Colts) - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington: As I mentioned in pick 9, there seems to be a growing sentiment the Bears may look to bolster their OL to help their young QB who has already been on social media about the importance of OL. Adding Troy who can come in and push someone like Bates who struggled last year on the inside or compete to start as an upgrade at tackle is exactly the kind of versatility Bears would be thrilled to add. I was tempted to go Jared Verse here as they need help on the DL too, but for the reasons above I came back to Troy. Seattle - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama: The draft falls favorably for Seattle here as they really need help all along the DL and are able to scoop maybe the best edger rusher in the draft. If Byron Murphy doesn't go to Atlanta at 8, I could see him going here too. Jaguars - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama: My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name to take Thomas, but I think this may be out of the range Beane will go up to for Thomas where it still likely takes our next years first. But I know its probably going to take a first, so not only do I not want to do it, I don't think Beane will either. So, Jags stay put and address their secondary in a division that is starting to have the makings of a high powered juggernaught and take one of the top corners in the draft. Bengals - JC Latham, OL, Alabama: 3 straight Bama guys come off the board as Bengals have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and signing Trent Brown on a one year deal with his injury history isn't enough to keep them from looking to the future here. Bengals are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best RT ones here to hopefully be the long term guy opposite Olrando Brown for years to come. LA Rams - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA: Buzz here is that McVay is gonna go offense in his first ever first round pick, and I get that. And there are some medical concern rumors around Latu as well that put this pick here in doubt. But, they need to bolster their pass rush, especially since they both need help on the edge and they have lost the QB pressure from inside that Donald brought for so many years. Which leads me to Latu here, the hometown star from UCLA staying home in LA. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon: Steelers need a Center and here is their chance to add maybe the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that Center position for years to come. There is some chatter of this being a place Brian Thomas Jr. goes via them picking him or someone like Bills trading up to get him. So won't surprise me to see BTJ go here in some fashion, but I just think JPJ is just a different breed and the kind of player Steelers covet. Miami - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St: With big needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball, they have a lot of options here. Miami did sign like 7 guys on the DL this offseason, but all of them are more suited as role players. So I flipped flopped between Jared and OL help (like Barton, Mims, etc) here several times before settling on Verse, and still tempted to flip again lol as I think this could go either side of the trenches. But I feel the value is higher on OL in round 2 than DL, so I used that as the defacto tie breaker and went ahead with Verse even though I am still torn on this one. *TRADE* Buffalo (via Eagles): Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU: Bills see the chance to lock in and insure they get BTJ moving up to 22 to get him for picks 28, 128, and 2025 3rd rounder. Originally I had Bills trading back from 28, but that was with BTJ off the board in the teens. With him getting into the 20's, Beane felt the value was there to go get a 6'3" guy with 4.3 forty speed to pair with Allen during this next era of his prime and hopefully giving DC's nightmares for years to come. *TRADE* Washington (via Vikings) - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St: Having missed on trying to get McCarthy followed with both Nix and Penix coming off at 12 and 13, the Vikings trade back and add a 3rd rounder (as they have no 2nd or 3rd round picks coming into the draft). Commanders are chomping at the bit to move back up and get one of these OT's, which is why I think if the Bills hold on to 28, Washington is a major potential trade back partner if they haven't moved up already. But, with how this draft played out, this Vikings pick is a great spot for the Commanders to go get a premiere tackle prospect to help protect their new QB, especially with teams looming after this pick that could be looking for OL help as well like the Cowboys up next. Comp received: MIN gets 36 & 67 - WAS gets 23 Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas: There are some guys here at OL that make a lot of sense for Dallas, but Jones and company can't pass up the opportunity on adding this kind of elite speed to his dome team to play opposite Lamb and makes the move to add some much needed firepower to the offense. Packers - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson: With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire and take one of the top corners in the draft in Wiggins. Tampa - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke: Bucs considered bolstering their pass rush here, but were stoked to find Barton still on the board and decided that his versatility and strength was too good to pass up to bolster that interior OL to help Baker succeed. Arizona - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois: In my v1.0 Newton was off the board to Miami, but with Verse falling there in this one it allowed Newton to fall here to where I think is a highly likely destination for him. Newton has even been vocal about loving the Cardinals and if he is here I think this will most likely be the pick as AZ looks to bolster a unity very much in need of the help. *TRADE* Eagles (Via Buffalo): Cooper DeJean: After the trade down with the Bills, the Eagles land the man dubbed the "Swiss army knife" and look to bolster a secondary very much in need of the help. Detroit - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: Lions could very well take Adonai Mitchell here or even someone on the OL, but with a high powered offense already in stow, I have changed my mind and have them addressing their biggest need and taking the talented corner from Alabama to help bolster their defense. Ravens - Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona: I have moved off WR here for Ravens given the fact they lost 3 OL this offseason and if they want Lamar and Henry to be at their best, they need to bolster this unit and Morgan can potentially play RT or G giving them a versatile player to plug in. 49ers - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later and take the mammoth Mims. While someone like Guyton could go here and has maybe a higher floor, the potential of Mims is too good to pass up. Chiefs - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington: A controversial pick I am sure as many think this would be CB, OL, or a different WR. But...I have now had some people I trust tell me several times that Polk is quietly one of the biggest risers in the draft and has end of first, top 10 of 2nd potential to go. One of them told me that both Balt and KC are very high on him. Polk makes so much sense for them both. Chiefs are sick of drops and Polk has some of the best hands, body control, and ball skills in the draft. He also plays physical and go over the middle where they have relied on Kelce for years who is probably in his last season. He is also the best blocking WR in the draft and KC throws the most passes at or behind the LOS in the league and relies a lot on blocking. So while I can see a number of players at CB, OL, and DL here as well along with a different WR too like Mitchell or McConkey, I am gonna go with the Polk as he is also a personal favorite of mine. NOTES: This came about through individually researching each teem, their needs, insight from people I know personally and general chatter, buzz, and rumors online around certain players/teams. And it took me 3 days to get to pick 32 as I was making many amendments along the way as new information was being discovered. One change already that I am eyeing if I do a v3.0 is what to do at 12 and 13. I cover this more in "Surprises" below, but will the Raiders pull the trigger at 13 for Penix is a big question for me and I think it is highly impacted by who ends up trading for McCarthy and maybe even what Denver does at 12. But all the buzz around Penix seems lie mostly with the Raiders. This is a fun draft to mock. There are a lot of scenarios that can play out at the top which impact how this draft falls. Unlike some drafts where the first 7 to 10 picks were highly predictable. I think it is a safe bet that Washington will be trading back into the first as it's been widely reported they want some OL help for their new QB. And if Bills don't trade up for Thomas, I do think they make a lot of sense as a trade back partner, assuming they haven't already traded up before our pick. Im still torn on passing on OL for Miami at 21 and taking Verse. Fastest offense in the league and can't win a playoff game or their division with a 4 game lead late. Why...because it's too easy to disrupt getting to Tua early and disrupting his early reads. But, like I said on that pick, the OL depth is better in round 2 than DL. Surprises: I think the biggest surprises of the this mock are: 6 QB's going top 13 - This is the one thing that is sticking out to me the most as the questionable. Will both Nix and Penix go back to back 12 and 13? Well, to be honest, I think Penix going 13 may come down to whether or not Denver takes Nix at 12. Vikings are looming in this mock at 23 where they could easily take Penix if they wanted after missing out on moving up for McCarthy as I have them in this mock. So, if that happens, then Bo going 12 puts a lot of pressure on Raiders to take Penix sooner rather than later by trying to trade back up into the first. If Denver passes on a QB at 12, then I am not sure the Raiders feel as much pressure to take Penix at 13. If Vikings end up being the one to trade up for McCarthy then I doubt Nix and Penix go back to back as I think the Raiders would feel more comfortable looking to trade back in towards the end of round 1 for Penix with Vikings out of the way at 23 and Denver reportedly preferring Nix. Thomas makes it out of the 12-18 pick range he is most often believed to go to teams like Den (12), Indy (15), Jags (17), Bengals (18) and he very well could. But, my thinking was I would be surprised to see him go to Denver over other players who should be higher on their boards still there at 12, plus the 2 QB's. Indy very well could take him, although I think if they don't trade up for one of the big 3 WR's there are CB's there they would take before Thomas at 15. Jags signed Davis to go along with Kirk and Zay, so while thats not great, its also not their biggest need where they really need a CB, especially with what Houston is doing. And Bengals must keep Burrow healthy, I have a hard time seeing them not go OL at 18. Steelers passing on Thomas at 20. One, I think Bills could trade here with them and there is some buzz about it too. But they have a glaring hole at C and the two best are on the board at 20, and the trenches feel more like a Steelers move than a WR here with a lot of good WR options available later. Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round. I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens and Chiefs offense. His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement those offenses and both teams I believe are very high on him. So in v1.0 (Ravens) and now 2.0 (Chiefs) I have him sneaking in ahead of some of the other guys like Mitchell and McConkey more often seen as going in the 1st. And like with any mock, take it with a grain of salt as I am sure, like just about all mocks, it will look quite different on draft night anyway lol. But it was a real fun exercise getting in tune with all 32 team needs and the prospects that might fit there. Especially since its changed my view on who I really want to see the Bills go after this draft, including finding a way to get some guys in round 3 via trade back at 28 or trade up from one of our 4ths. This is a good write up and as much as i'd like to nit-pick or find something to argue about, i really can't......you've certainly done your homework. Good job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I think Bowers only real shot at single digits is bears at 9 or someone trading up to get him. Giants, Titans, and Atlanta at 6, 7, and 8 aren't going to take a TE. Giants are going QB or one of the big 3 WR's, Titans are a near lock to take Alt at OT, and Atlanta doesn't need a TE with Kyle Pitts there to work with Cousins and more likely to address their very needs defensive front 7. Bears though are interesting...ive mentioned already it wouldn't shock me to see them take Bowers. WR would be a luxury pick with DJ Moore there as a legit WR1 long term and Keenan Allen as a short term bridge opposite of him. TE can be a young QB's best friend, so wouldn't surprise me at to take Bowers or OL instead of WR. Also, with only 4 picks (although a good 4 picks) a trade back isn't out of the question and then who knows who that team is targeting. They could be trying to get ahead of Jets for Bowers. But more than likely I think its most likely Bowers goes somewhere from 10 or later personally. I think Nabers has not insignificant bust potential and I think Bowers vs Odunze is a coin flip. After the QB’s, my big board would be Harrison, then Bowers/Odunze, then Nabers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: My only nitpick is, if the board does fall like this, I think the Chiefs end up with Franklin or McConky over Polk. Out of those 3, I'd be happiest if the Chiefs went with Polk. All good and for sure, I think there are multiple players Chiefs go with at 32, not just at WR either. So totally get your viewpoint there. There are other WR's, and guys on the DL, OL, and Corners that could go in that spot. But the most plugged in person I know with real insider NFL info has been consistently saying that one of the biggest draft risers he keeps hearing teams talking about is Polk. And he also said that both Ravens and Chiefs are really high on him. And honestly, as someone also high on Polk, both Ravens and Chiefs are great fits for him and their offenses where they need a sure handed, physical, big catch radius guy...and the fact he is the best blocking WR in the draft is a big plus for Ravens (who run a lot) and Chiefs (who lead the NFL in the Mahomes era on passes at or behind the LOS and run a big YAC style of offense). So I went with it, but by no means do I think its a sure thing either. I do think Polk is going to go in the top half of the 2nd though if he doesn't sneak in at the end of round 1. And if Chiefs don't go WR at 32, I would keep an eye on both Washington Husky WR's to Chiefs in 2nd, if either of them make it to them (I doubt Polk does, and Jalen might not either). Jalen McMillan is also rising up draft boards from what I hear, and I know he has also met with the Chiefs and he would be a good fit for them as well and I think could be in play for them depending on what they do at 32 and who is there when they are on the clock in the 2nd. But there is a good chance neither makes it to the Chiefs in the 2nd as I think everyone expects a big WR run at the top of that 2nd round and we could see a record number of WR's go in the first 2 rounds because of it (current record is 13 which was the year we traded for Diggs). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sweats said: This is a good write up and as much as i'd like to nit-pick or find something to argue about, i really can't......you've certainly done your homework. Good job. Thanks! I tried to make picks based on research on each team best I could, but we all know come draft day things have many ways to play out. It was fun and interesting to put together and I spent as much time diving in on this because this draft is one of the more exciting ones I have seen in a while, for me at least. So many places it can completely change directions starting at pick 2 on the decision between Maye or Daniels. The first 2 rounds are loaded with talent IMHO at WR, CB, OT, and IOL which are all very deep there. And so many teams are needy at all those spots making it tough to really figure out which position they will lean or even which prospect at that position. The fact there are 7 teams who really need a QB and there are 6 potential guys that could go round 1 also makes it very interesting. Either way, it was fun and glad you enjoyed it Edited April 22 by Alphadawg7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 1 hour ago, HappyDays said: The thing that gets NFL teams excited about McCarthy is a lot of those passes came in high leverage situations. 3rd and long gotta have it moments, etc. There is a projection there for sure but 3rd down success rate is something NFL scouts and executives value much more than the general public, because that's what wins championships. True, plus McCarthy has also reportedly been crushing his interviews and meetings too. Which can really help a team get more comfortable and start to move a guy up their boards. IMHO I think he will be either a Viking or Giant as I think Arizona is gonna most likely trading back. Vikings offer will be bigger but AZ will fall out of range for a big 3 WR. So they would need to then trade back up, and they got plenty of ammunition to do that even before the trade back, and have done that before. Or if the Giants can make the offer good enough they can just move back to 6 and not have to give up assets to move back up and still get one of the big 3 WR's. I will be a bit surprised if Arizona doesn't trade back to be honest, it just makes too much sense for them and there are 4 very QB needy teams between them and pick 13. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 46 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Thanks! I tried to make picks based on research on each team best I could, but we all know come draft day things have many ways to play out. It was fun and interesting to put together and I spent as much time diving in on this because this draft is one of the more exciting ones I have seen in a while, for me at least. So many places it can completely change directions starting at pick 2 on the decision between Maye or Daniels. The first 2 rounds are loaded with talent IMHO at WR, CB, OT, and IOL which are all very deep there. And so many teams are needy at all those spots making it tough to really figure out which position they will lean or even which prospect at that position. The fact there are 7 teams who really need a QB and their 6 potential guys that could go round 1 also makes it very interesting. Either way, it was fun and glad you enjoyed it It's been a long time since i was looking so forward to a draft. They are usually fairly predictable; however, this one has the makings of being something special and i see a lot of action happening within the first 20 picks. And if you include that there are 7 needy teams for a QB, we may see some jockeying around for premium draft positions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 Broncos just trading for Zack Wilson today for 6th and 7th round picks adds an interesting wrinkle here that might impact both picks 12 and 13. I won't rule Nix out totally at 12, but I could easily see the Broncos either taking BPA at 12 or even trading back now to try and set themselves up next year for a QB. And if they still want Nix, there is a good chance he would still be there when they picked after trading back. If I find time to do a v3.0, this will be interesting to think about and play out a little bit. Question is, who is on the board at 12 that a team is going to move up to get and what would that compensation be? Is there a trade there that makes sense on both sides is the question that will be fun to explore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 (edited) FINAL VERSION 3.0 NOTE: This was a rushed, crazy, and more aggressive one just for fun including a 3 team trade rumored but probably doesn't happen. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC: No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy. Washington - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: I have believed this pick to be Drake Maye in v1.0 and 2.0, and I have someone I trust who has insight who told me that both QB's were in play and had supporters inside, and Maye got momentum there for a little bit. I have not gotten a recent update to know for sure if there is still a chance Maye could go here or not, but given most buzz out there is still sticking with Jayden, I am reluctantly changing this to Jayden even though I won't at all be surprised if this was Maye. *TRADE* - Vikings (previous Patriots) - Drake Maye, QB, UNC: In a historic multi team trade...Vikings, Patriots, Cardinals make draft history. Minnesota decides to pull the trigger after Maye gets past Washington and Patriots have deal in place with GM Ossenfort (formerly of NE) to safely go back 1 where Cardinals also go back with Chargers so they can still get their QB and Cards still get MHJ and Chargers going to 11 where they can safely address OL. *TRADE* Patriots (previous Cardinals) - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: With a deal in place with Cards before moving off 3, they still get their QB and net some extra draft ammo. *TRADE* Cardinals (previous Chargers) - Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio St: hNo team has more power in this draft than the Cardinals who brilliantly add more draft assets to an already treasure trove of picks while still getting their guy. Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: Missing out on moving up, they take a major weapon in Nabers to help address what is an anemic offensive group. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame: Not a lot to say here, maybe the safest mock pick in the draft outside Caleb...Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select. Atlanta - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas: Atlanta looks to bolster their DL with the best DT in the draft who is a guy that just moves different than the other DT's in the draft, who can get off the ball and shoot the gaps to wreak havoc. He is as much a force against the run as he is the pass as well and who could become an anchor up front for Atlanta for years to come. One of the edge rushers could be in this spot too such as Turner or Verse. *TRADE* - Bills (previous Bears) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington: Im skeptical we do this TBH, but its a version 3 mock and I am taking a few more risks and liberties here on the news we are being aggressive to move up. Bills get their absolute stud WR who seems built to be in the Bills locker room for the next stage of Allens prime. *TRADE* Colts (previous NY Jets) - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: With the Jets missing out on one of the big 3 WR's, they move back and pick up some extra draft ammo and Colts get maybe the biggest mismatch creator in the draft and a young QB's best friend in Brock. *TRADE* Chargers (previous Vikings & Cardinals) - JC Latham, OT, Alabama: This is best case for Chargers, hey get to trade back adding more picks and land the guy they really covet in JC Latham who should be here at 11. Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon: Broncos explore trading back, but ultimately go ahead and take their QB and not mess around. Raiders - Michael Penix, QB, Washington: After missing out on going up to get Daniels, the Raiders pull the trigger on Penix who by all reports they are also very high on. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St: With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. *TRADE* NY Jets (previous Colts) - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU: Jets get their weapon for Rodgers while still picking up some extra picks from the earlier trade down to probably address OL to help protect Rodgers. TRADE* Eagles (previous Seattle) - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: After giving up the most TD passes in the league, the Eagles need to address CB in the worst way, and if Mitchell getting into the mid teens they see the opportunity to go up and get one many see as the best corner in the draft. Jaguars - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas: Jags need to keep pace with Houston, and not sure Kirk, Davis, Zay combo is scaring anyone and look to add some explosion so they can see if TD Jesus is really the long term answer at QB. Bengals - Troy Fatanu, OL, Washington: Bengals have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and signing Trent Brown on a one year deal with his injury history isn't enough to keep them from looking to the future here. LA Rams - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA: Buzz here is that McVay is gonna go offense in his first ever first round pick and is trying to trade up. Not getting into the top 10, Rams stay put and bolster their pass rush with maybe the best pure edge rusher in the draft. Pittsburgh - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke: Steelers need a Center and here is their chance to add maybe the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that Center position for years to come. Miami - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama - The trenches for Miami are an absolute mess and they could go OL or DL here, but with steep drop off on the DL after the first round, they take one of the best pass rushers in the draft, especially given the plethora of JAGS they brought in FA are nothing more than role players. *TRADE* Seattle (via Eagles) Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St: Seattle has the draft fall great for them after trading back with Eagles and still getting one of the premiere edge rushers in this draft to help bolster their ailing DL. *TRADE* Commanders (previously Vikings, Patriots, & Chargers) - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St: Commanders are aggressively looking to move for an OT and they move up to get one of the best in Fuaga. Chargers, looking to rebuild both sides of the trenches and address WR in this draft see an opportunity to load up more picks here on days 2 and 3 to do just that. Dallas - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: Dallas wouldn't surprise me to take a WR here, but I think the smarter play is address the obvious needs on the OL with the guy with the most upside. Packers - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson: With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire and take one of the top corners in the draft in Wiggins. If Wiggins is gone in the real draft here, I can also see some OL help in bound with this pick as well. Tampa Bay - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St: With pass rushers dropping off soon, Bucs look to bolster that unit with the explosive Chop Robinson. Arizona - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois: As I had in v2.0, Newton has been vocal about loving the Cardinals and if he is here I think this will most likely be the pick as AZ looks to bolster a unit very much in need of the help. *TRADE* Bears (previously Buffalo) - Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri: After the trade down with the Bills, the Bears take the versatile Robinson who can help inside and on the Edge. Detroit - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa: Lions could very well take Adonai Mitchell here or even someone on the OL, but with a high powered offense already in stow, I have changed my mind and have them addressing their biggest need and taking the talented corner from Alabama to help bolster their defense. Ravens - Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona: I have moved off WR here for Ravens given the fact they lost 3 OL this offseason and if they want Lamar and Henry to be at their best, they need to bolster this unit and Morgan can potentially play RT or G giving them a versatile player to plug in. 49ers - Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia: With a major WR run expected to begin at the top of round 2, 49ers look to add one with them looking at having to move Aiyuk possibly at some point. Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas: I still think Ja'Lynn Polk could be in play here, or potentially OL or someone like Kool-Aid, but word is they want to add more speed at WR and have been trying to move up for that, so thinking Mitchell could be a guy here not previously believed to get to this pick. I really did not have the time to put into this third version as I wanted, in fact, its a minor miracle I even got it done TBH. So excuse craziness and any errors that I may have missed as I moved guys and teams around the board. But it was fun to cook up some creativity vs the more likely scenarios. Edited April 26 by Alphadawg7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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