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"How lessons from Josh Allen’s rookie year propelled him to stardom in 2020"

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12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm - I want to add something that makes sense in the way Buddo was just talking about it. 

 

I agree that Allen wasn't consistently accurate early on.  There were multiple throws that left you scratching your head, wondering why he threw it like THAT!   He needed to get consistently accurate.  The problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected; the problem was that he more or less didn't have any habits.  That is, he had to learn to just dial it back a bit.  

 

What Beane and McDermott and their organization figured out is that Allen was kind of a wild mustang that hadn't been tamed yet. They didn't have to break a bunch of bad habits.  They just had to teach some habits, period.   They saw that Allen really wanted to be tamed, so they didn't see the risk. 

 

 

Shaw, it would be reasonable to think that "the problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected," if it weren't for the fact that we have dozens of interviews from Jordan Palmer and from Allen himself talking about the bad mechanical habits he had that they were working on correcting, specifically over-striding, stepping in the wrong direction, not rotating his hips into the throw, etc., and that it would help his accuracy.

 

Was some of the work they've done with Allen that they needed to tame him, calm him down? Absolutely. Without question. But was taming him anything to do with his accuracy? I don't think so at all. The taming part was much more towards getting him to take checkdowns when it made sense, to go with the design of the play rather than hanging on to the ball in hopes something would come open later down the field, and so on. And those changes have definitely made Allen a better QB. He's improved in so many areas it's incredible. Startling and wonderful.

 

But he also had a lot of bad mechanical habits he'd fallen into that they have largely corrected that directly affected his accuracy.

Edited by Thurman#1

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11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Comparing rookie Allen with Tom Brady or Drew Brees is silly.

 

 

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

 

This is the post you replied to:

 

On 11/21/2020 at 4:17 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

There aren't reasonable grounds to say that Allen was accurate coming out of college, or early in Buffalo. He wasn't. He had plenty of times when he made the right read, made the right decision, and airmailed the ball or threw far in front or far behind the reciever. He did this at a much higher rate than pretty much any successful pro QB did. He had to improve his accuracy a lot. 

 

 

Could you just quickly point out where I mentioned Brees or Brady? No, right?

 

I said, "He had plenty of times when he made the right read, made the right decision, and airmailed the ball or threw far in front or far behind the reciever. He did this at a much higher rate than pretty much any successful pro QB did." Neither Brees nor Brady were anywhere near as inaccurate as Josh - even in college or early in their careers - and that's the comparison (to "any successful pro QB") I was making. 

 

Clearly, I was also comparing him to guys much further down the QB ladder, guys like Dalton or Derek Carr. Very very few QB as inaccurate as Allen was in college and early have done well.

Edited by Thurman#1

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Shaw, it would be reasonable to think that "the problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected," if it weren't for the fact that we have dozens of interviews from Jordan Palmer and from Allen himself talking about the bad mechanical habits he had that they were working on correcting, specifically over-striding, stepping in the wrong direction, not rotating his hips into the throw, etc., and that it would help his accuracy.

 

Was some of the work they've done with Allen that they needed to tame him, calm him down? Absolutely. Without question. But was taming him anything to do with his accuracy? I don't think so at all. The taming part was much more towards getting him to take checkdowns when it made sense, to go with the design of the play rather than hanging on to the ball in hopes something would come open later down the field, and so on. And those changes have definitely made Allen a better QB. He's improved in so many areas it's incredible. Startling and wonderful.

 

But he also had a lot of bad mechanical habits he'd fallen into that they have largely corrected that directly affected his accuracy.

It really doesn't matter, but I don't think you're correct about this.  Jordan Palmer is a football player, not a writer.  So when he said Allen had bad mechanical happens, it's quite possible that's just poor word choice.  A football player is less likely to make distinctions in his language that capture the difference between "bad habits" and no habits.  

 

I didn't see Allen doing anything wrong consistently wrong.  I never saw a QB whose mechanics were bad.  Every throw was unique.  He didn't do the same thing wrong every time.  A habit is something that you do the same every time a situation arises, and that wasn't Allen.  Rolling left, for example, sometimes he threw a pass that only a half dozen NFL QBs throw, sometimes he was a disaster.   That's not a bad habit; that's just a situation that requires awareness and consistency.  

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8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You did state it. Unfortunately, that doesn't affect the fact that you didn't prove anything there but that when you look at film you came up with an opinion that is very very different from nearly everyone else in pretty much the NFL world.

 

You went back and looked at old film from a lot of guys. You then gave us your opinion on what happened. And that's what it was, your opinion. Which is fine. You've proven what your opinion was by going and looking at film. 

 

 

Pretty objective actually.

 

I broke it down by simply catchable vs uncatchable for the WR.

 

Ball within reach of the hands or not.

 

No judgment on ball placement... just if it was a catchable football or not. And ultimately Allen threw a LOWER percentage of uncatchable footballs than some surprising rookie QBs. Basically, Allen looked like every other promising 1st round rookie QB starting in year 1.

 

I can't speak for the national pundits other than to say it's hard for anyone to admit they were wrong and it's even harder when it's on national TV.

 

Just listen to Troy Aikman's analysis of Allen as he commentated on him during the KC game.

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

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14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I get it.

 

You have an opinion, and nothing else. And you're telling us that opinion. Which is fine. But again, we knew your opinion before.

 

Thing is, other than that opinion of yours, backed up by ... well, your opinion, there isn't any evidence or really anyone else saying the same thing.

 

Allen had accuracy problems, which he has really successfully addressed. You don't think so. Both of those things are just fine.

 

 

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14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Pretty objective actually.

 

I broke it down by simply catchable vs uncatchable for the WR.

 

Ball within reach of the hands or not.

 

No judgment on ball placement... just if it was a catchable football or not. And ultimately Allen threw a LOWER percentage of uncatchable footballs than some surprising rookie QBs. Basically, Allen looked like every other promising 1st round rookie QB starting in year 1.

 

I can't speak for the national pundits other than to say it's hard for anyone to admit they were wrong and it's even harder when it's on national TV.

 

Just listen to Troy Aikman's analysis of Allen as he commentated on him during the KC game.

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

 

 

First, dividing things up by how many catchable and uncatchable footballs a guy throws is in no way measuring his accuracy. Accuracy is far far more nuanced than that, it has to do with how well you hit a guy in stride, how well you lead him away from defenders, whether you hit him between the numbers and so on.

 

You're not measuring accuracy there. You're measuring whether or not some guy on the internet thinks your balls are catchable or not. And that's fine, it's just quite far from accuracy.

 

As for whether your method is objective, it couldn't possibly be clearer that it is absolutely not. Saying that your method was objective is a joke.

 

The fact is that we often have people on these forums arguing whether the ball in a given case is catchable or not and disagreeing violently. It's an opinion. Now, some cases are obvious and everyone would get them the same, but many are not. Many are very subjective. And it's a simple fact that beliefs, opinions and prejudices affect perception.

 

You could've made your analysis bulletproof by pointing out what you thought of which plays. I challenged you many times to do that. You refused, for reasons that seemed pretty obvious to me and many others.

 

And again, you're a guy who did many of these little studies, all of which seemed to produce results showing that Tyrod was a franchise quarterback back when that's what you believed. Which was basically the whole time he was here, except the long period of time when you thought he'd gone far beyond a franchise QB and was "near-elite."

 

If you want to continue believing that Allen was as accurate as others, that's fine, but you have never given us any reason to believe it. You're pretty much alone on that.

 

He certainly has improved a great deal on decision making as well, but that's not that unusual. Nearly every QB coming into the NFL takes quite a while to improve that, and if they don't, they fail. Impovement of deicision-making isn't that big a deal, as it's common among guys who become successful.

 

Improvement of accuracy is far far less common. Many pundits, coaches and scouts have argued that it's not possible to do. That argument never made sense, as plenty of QBs have improved accuracy to some degree, from Brady and Rodgers on to many others. But very very few have improved it to a really large degree, which is I think what those pundits are really talking about. Luckily for us, Allen is one of those very very few exceptions who have made really large improvements in accuracy.

 

But yeah, you're right, decision-making, too.

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, I get it.

 

You have an opinion, and nothing else. And you're telling us that opinion. Which is fine. But again, we knew your opinion before.

 

Thing is, other than that opinion of yours, backed up by ... well, your opinion, there isn't any evidence or really anyone else saying the same thing.

 

Allen had accuracy problems, which he has really successfully addressed. You don't think so. Both of those things are just fine.

 

 

 

Same ole Thurm.

 

Glad to know you haven't changed.

 

If you want to dismiss the exercise then do it by watching every single pass from all 7 of those QBs in their rookie years, collate the data, and let's compare.  I make the methodology as objective as possible without considering ball placement... you can find it here:

 

I doubt you'll find anything other than the fact that Allen was no less consistently accurate than your typical NFL rookie 1st round QB starting in year 1

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11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

First, dividing things up by how many catchable and uncatchable footballs a guy throws is in no way measuring his accuracy. Accuracy is far far more nuanced than that, it has to do with how well you hit a guy in stride, how well you lead him away from defenders, whether you hit him between the numbers and so on.

 

And yet it's pretty obvious that any ball that is UNCATCHABLE would also be inaccurate and Allen threw a lower percentage of UNCATCHABLE passes (when excluding Throwaways) than Wentz, Watson, Mayfield, Watson, Jackson, and Rosen.

 

I'm guessing those would be those "wildly inaccurate" passes you referred to with Allen.  If you actually watched him and watched all those other rookie QBs their rookie years, you would realize that Allen was not any less consistently inaccurate (since that's a term I'm sure you'd agree one doesn't need to quibble with as there's no variance of an uncatchable ball with good ball placement

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

You're not measuring accuracy there. You're measuring whether or not some guy on the internet thinks your balls are catchable or not. And that's fine, it's just quite far from accuracy.

 

Not when you remember that any uncatchable pass is also obviously inaccurate.

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

As for whether your method is objective, it couldn't possibly be clearer that it is absolutely not. Saying that your method was objective is a joke.

 

The fact is that we often have people on these forums arguing whether the ball in a given case is catchable or not and disagreeing violently. It's an opinion. Now, some cases are obvious and everyone would get them the same, but many are not. Many are very subjective. And it's a simple fact that beliefs, opinions and prejudices affect perception.

 

Passes within reach of at least one of the WRs hands is a catchable football.  Fingertips and beyond is not.

 

That's it.  It's significantly less difficult to evaluate that than it is ball placement.

 

Of course there's some subjectivity.  But I used those same measurements for every single QB, so the standards  for the others were the same.

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

You could've made your analysis bulletproof by pointing out what you thought of which plays. I challenged you many times to do that. You refused, for reasons that seemed pretty obvious to me and many others.

 

What I thought of which plays?  I provide examples in that thread.

 

 

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On 11/22/2020 at 4:31 AM, Thurman#1 said:

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.


so typical of him if I must say. 
 

He didn’t like Josh at first and now it seems he’s heat over heals with praise 

And why keep reposting the this?  blob.png.146550e702d0eb617636e34d6d9b79d3.png

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On 11/22/2020 at 11:58 PM, Shaw66 said:

It really doesn't matter, but I don't think you're correct about this.  Jordan Palmer is a football player, not a writer.  So when he said Allen had bad mechanical happens, it's quite possible that's just poor word choice.  A football player is less likely to make distinctions in his language that capture the difference between "bad habits" and no habits.  

 

I didn't see Allen doing anything wrong consistently wrong.  I never saw a QB whose mechanics were bad.  Every throw was unique.  He didn't do the same thing wrong every time.  A habit is something that you do the same every time a situation arises, and that wasn't Allen.  Rolling left, for example, sometimes he threw a pass that only a half dozen NFL QBs throw, sometimes he was a disaster.   That's not a bad habit; that's just a situation that requires awareness and consistency.  

 

 

No, Shaw.

 

It really was not even close to a misunderstanding. He didn't just say that Allen had mechanical problems. He went into detail over and over again about what those mechanical problems were and what he was doing to fix them.

 

As one of several examples, here is an excerpt of a pre-draft interview with Jordan Palmer, but after Palmer had spent months working with him. And it's very very clear that he sees at least one very very specific problem (though he's talked about several others at different interviews at different times as Josh developed.

 

 

 

"Of course, the big question with Allen is his accuracy and his 56.2 completion percentage, which scares the heck out of offensive coaches. But guess what?

" 'We've fixed it,'' said Palmer.

"He said with Allen's poor completion percentage 'there are two ways to look at it: one, what he's doing mechanically, and then two what's happening around him, receivers and the concepts and the coverages that they're seeing and there's a lot of complexities that go into both of those.'

" 'From a mechanics standpoint you have to be athletic enough take an old muscle memory and create a new muscle memory. Take something that was an old habit and replace it with the new habit. With Josh, it was tied to his base and kind of where his feet are placed and how short his front stride is. And so making a small adjustment has made a huge impact.''

He said "the growth in accuracy that you're going to see throughout the draft training process and throughout his transition into the NFL and to being a franchise starter, is going to be tied to that.''

 

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2018/03/jordan_palmer_on_browns_candid.html

 

He's referring specifically to the low completion percentage when he talks about other things than accuracy, like "... what's happening around him, reciever and the concepts and coverages ..."

But he very specifically addresses accuracy, specifically in terms of replacing bad old habits with good new ones. There was no mistake in communication here. Palmer is a very erudite, well-spoken guy, specific and educated in what he's talking about.

 

More:  "When the ball comes out of a guy's hand crappy on a good player, it's the sequencing,'' said Palmer. "You actually have to fix the sequencing and build muscle memory around that. If he has a bad throw, he'll follow it with a really good one because he has the fix.''

 

And again, this is one of several times he's mentioned various mechanical problems he and Josh were working on and changing.

Edited by Thurman#1

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On 11/24/2020 at 6:31 AM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:


so typical of him if I must say. 
 

He didn’t like Josh at first and now it seems he’s heat over heals with praise 

And why keep reposting the this?  blob.png.146550e702d0eb617636e34d6d9b79d3.png

 

 

 

Um, no, Transplant was the guy who hated him with a wild and unceasing passion. Until about a week after the Bills drafted him.

 

As I said earlier in this thread, and Trans will back me up - because he was arguing with me telling me that success by Allen was not even a possibility - I thought he had a good chance to succeed. I wasn't convinced he would, but I thought he had a good chance, and thought him being a top ten guy was reasonable.

 

So, nice try.

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