Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Bottom line up front: This article is a must-read if you have interest in football beyond the Ooohs and Aaaahs of a deep pass or a sack. (it will start waaaay too basic for you if you're a former DI football player who is now scouting, but there is still some stuff, keep reading). It's unexpectedly technical and down in the x's and o's weeds for an article in The Buffalo Blitz, so if you read it and like it be sure to let them know. If you aren't a subscriber and are interested in this kind of stuff, I'll put it out there: I think you should subscribe just to check it out, there is a free trial. I'll try to summarize some key points, but no way can I do it justice. https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/05/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-dropbacks/ On this board, we've been talking in a couple of threads about 1) Bills pass protection problems, especially off the edge 2) whether that relates to drop depth - could Allen take a deeper drop as Mahomes and Jackson seem to, and help himself? 3) how drop depth is linked to route timing in the passing game 4) Allen's footwork seems inconsistent sometimes giving him a variable depth for the same drop, and does that cause problems? (Brett Kollman, the Film Room guy, did a piece on Baker Mayfield that suggests his drop depth is affecting pass protection Disclosure: I'm probably a bit responsible for the above-linked article because I PM'd some of these questions at Josh Barnett and told him how much I enjoy reading Kubiak's stuff, and maybe in the off-season Kubiak could address some of these questions, ie I'm probably the "reader". My Bottom line: I don't think Kubiak addressed or answered the question I intended to be asking, but that article is solid and unless you've played or coached football, you will learn a ton from it. Go. Check it out. Article Bottom line: Kubiak goes into a ton of detail about pass protection schemes, drop depth, and ends by concluding that the most important factor governing pass protection is time to get the ball out, and the best way Josh can improve his pass protection is to improve his time to release: " Time required to protect the quarterback as well as the defensive rush-schemes matter more to an offensive tackle than how deep the quarterback is in the pocket. The offensive line blocking concepts (Gap, Base, or Slide) must also be considered and understood before judgement of offensive tackle performance on edge rushers. There are different techniques and responsibilities for offensive lineman in the plethora of scenarios. Josh Allen's depth isn't the factor that creates missed blocks. It is the amount of time he spends in the pocket that mostly creates protection issues. Three or more seconds in the pocket is all any quarterback can ask for. " Allen averages 2.94 seconds in the pocket form snap to throw, according to NextGen Stats. Only 11 quarterbacks hold the football longer on average. My biggest question regards how this time is measured. Pro-football-reference lists a stat called "Pocket Time" (click the pressure tab) which they describe as "average time between the snap and either throwing the ball, or collapse of the pocket". PFR cites "Sportsradar" as the source of their "Advanced Stats". For this pocket time stat, the Bills are LAST in the league at 2.3 seconds. It's my understanding that Sportsradar is measuring the POCKET here eg OL performance, not the QB other than to note when the ball wings on its way. This leads me to believe that the 2.94 second time cited by Kubiak does not represent the time Allen has in the pocket, but rather the time between snap and throw (or sack). (I will try to verify this on NextGenStats and come back to confirm or correct). So there's a significant discrepancy here - 2.3 seconds is not a lot of pass protection time, while 2.94 seconds is a ton - and that needs to be sorted to understand what's going on with Allen and the Bills. The second question I have regards how much this time to release is impacted by the scheme. Allen is well known to extend the pass plays with his legs (maybe sometimes bailing on an existing pocket too quickly). In addition, Beasley, Allen, and others have talked about the Bills incorporating Mouse Davis Run-and-Shoot secondary route concepts in Daboll's offense. If Allen is holding the ball and extending the play to allow secondary routes to develop and WR to come open, the issue is with the scheme, not with Allen. Conclusion: I'm sure that Kubiak's point is well-taken that the overall best way to "fix" pass protection is for the QB to get the ball out quicker. Back in the Chan Gailey days, we all saw how much better the OL looked immediately when decisive Fitzpatrick took over for "Trentative" Edwards. And sometimes there are not WR who are open that quickly, but sometimes there are (at least a checkdown to Singletary - can someone buy him a long white pole topped with an orange flag?) and Allen either doesn't see them or overlooks them. I will probably be rude and follow up my own post a couple times (or edit this one if no one has responded), because I have some detailed questions and comments but I wanted to get this out there. Again, I can not do this article justice, go read it - and there is a free trial. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) From what I’m reading, it appears we have an execution/coordination problem between the O line WRs and QB when applying what is in your post to our offense. I guess more detailed work would be required to get timing aligned so as to have a higher degree of success. Lots of homework this off season for the fellas... Nice thread Hap, thanks. Go Bills!!! Edited February 6, 2020 by Don Otreply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 OK, as promised, being rude and following up my own post. This isn't an exact analogy, but work with me here as I give an example of why, as far as I can tell, the QB being where the OL expects him to be consistently matters. This is Bills at Texans, 3rd and 8 at the Buff 47 (the play where Allen fumbled). The pocket has broken down, and Allen has avoided pressure by stepping forward. To his L, Kroft and Singletary have already whiffed on blocking Mercilus, and Dawkins has moved over to help. Downfield, Beasley is about to come open on a 2ndary route. If Allen tucks the ball and runs like hell, he probably has the first. If Allen has an extra moment, he hits Beasley for the first. It seems to me that if Allen stops right where he is in this first film clip, he will be safely protected in the shade cast by D-Dawk's Big Butt. Mercilus, Dawkins, and Allen are on a line, and Dawkins has a chance at enough leverage and position to block Mercilus "long enough". However that's not where Allen stops. He stops here (again, the LOS is the 47) and hesitates before he crosses the LOS, looking to throw. Mercilus can see Allen, Dawkins can not. In this position, Allen (and the ball) are completely exposed; no way Dawkins has position or leverage to block him. Allen is holding the ball in a throwing grip, one handed. Mercilus flies in and smacks the bottom of the ball on the opposite side of Allen's grip with the momentum of his flying body behind it - a pretty reliable fumble recipe. So what were the factors behind the broken play and fumble? Obviously (and to the point of Kubiak's article), time holding the ball matters. Allen is trying to find a pass play, and holds onto the ball long past the time when his pocket has collapsed and when he has a running lane ahead of him. He needs to make a decision. If he tucks the ball into proper running grip and takes off earlier, there's a reasonable chance that he gets the first down and the Bills at least get a field goal. At worst, we punt and pin the Texans deep. But if Allen is trying to buy time and find a pass play, it seems to me his position relative to the OLman trying to give him a block indeed matters. Again, work with me - this is not a pocket example, just one with some relevance I knew I could find - but I think the point illustrated is that it's not so much the depth of the drop per se that matters, but where the OLman expects the QB on a play thus the angle he's taking. The defender has the advantage, he can see where that squishy little QB critter has gone to, and if it's much further back than the angle the OLman has leverage to protect, you either need a tackle with super-quick feet or the defender is gonna blow by him and squish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Again, work with me - this is not a pocket example, just one with some relevance I knew I could find - but I think the point illustrated is that it's not so much the depth of the drop per se that matters, but where the OLman expects the QB on a play thus the angle he's taking. The defender has the advantage, he can see where that squishy little QB critter has gone to, and if it's much further back than the angle the OLman has leverage to protect, you either need a tackle with super-quick feet or the defender is gonna blow by him and squish. Trimming this down, but how does this translate back to our discussion in the Cooper thread - namely are our pass catchers getting enough separation to give Allen a window in which he can deliver the ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Good stuff One other item to consider in such analysis is how often the Bills run up-temp/no-huddle. In general, when you go up-tempo, you’re picking a protection set (Most commonly split or slide) and sticking with it. Very difficult to adjust on the fly, which does give pass rushers a bit of an advantage against OLmen—the prevailing wisdom is that the pace of the offense will exhaust the pass rushers and offset their relative advantage of knowing the protection. But... If the QB is a bit behind in reading the D, then the exposure to the pass rush will be accentuated more so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 37 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Good stuff One other item to consider in such analysis is how often the Bills run up-temp/no-huddle. In general, when you go up-tempo, you’re picking a protection set (Most commonly split or slide) and sticking with it. Very difficult to adjust on the fly, which does give pass rushers a bit of an advantage against OLmen—the prevailing wisdom is that the pace of the offense will exhaust the pass rushers and offset their relative advantage of knowing the protection. But... If the QB is a bit behind in reading the D, then the exposure to the pass rush will be accentuated more so. Really good point, Bandit, especially given how I understand the Bills were implementing the no-huddle, with a one-word playcall that encoded evvything (based on Beasley talking about this in his "17 Weeks Uninterrupted" podcast with Nate Burleson). I *think* I recall that in the K-Gun No Huddle, they had a several word playcall and the ability to flex the protections. BUT The real limitation of the Bills implementation of no-huddle this season was, IMO, the base personnel from which they were executing it. They used a 11 set with Knox and Singletary, and with Brown, Beasley and McKenzie as the WR. Knox has stated the strong desire to be an all-purpose TE in the league, and I think he blocked more than he caught at Ol Miss. But a kind word for where both Knox and Singletary are as NFL-grade blockers at this point would be "developing". Interestingly, although the Bills seemed to be running a lot of no-huddle in the 4 game stretch after Cleveland (and it seemed to the 'eye test' to be working), according to Pro Football Focus it was only used on 108 of their 1018 offensive plays, and our success from it wasn't that great - we passed about 2/3 of the time with 54.7% completion. Issues with pass protection might be one reason for that, and especially so in the Ravens game (after which we seemed to Ju(don)iciously back off it). Good thought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 hours ago, Reed83HOF said: Trimming this down, but how does this translate back to our discussion in the Cooper thread - namely are our pass catchers getting enough separation to give Allen a window in which he can deliver the ball? Good question. From what I've seen it's a mixed bag. I think one reason Allen "struggles" with man coverage is that our WR sometimes struggle to get open (quickly) against man, especially against more physical DBs and in games where the refs are "letting them play". Given enough time, I believe Beasley (and Smoke, too) can get open against anyone, but he needs time. I also think that sometimes Allen isn't sure he's seeing the coverage correctly, and second-guessing/concern for throwing picks slows him down and sometimes costs him the quick throws. I hope with more film-watching and time in the offensive system, his speed will pick up. And sometimes, there are guys open, and Allen simply overlooks or does not see them - the basis for my facetious suggestion about equipping Singletary with a long orange fiberglass pole as are used to mark roadsides in areas with heavy snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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