What are the top 8 teams going to do? Implications for the Bills

[IgotBILLStopay]

WAS more likely to trade with TB than Jets. Also likelihood of such trade depends on whether a NYG Cards trade for Rosen happens. If so, WAS more likely to trade with the Bills since NYG not a threat to take Haskins but Denver is.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Arizona taking the full 10 min never know Jets might come up to get Bosa (.0001% chance)

[Boatdrinks]

It’s the midget 

[Thurman#1]

Oliver's available!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Fantastic!!!!!!

 

Gotta be the most likely pick there. I hope so.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Thurman#1

[IgotBILLStopay]

I got two picks out of the top 9 totally wrong - Quinnen Williams to the Jets and Clelin Ferrell to the Raiders. Quinnen Williams because the fit is just so bad next to Leonard WIlliams. I guess it just means the Jets will try to trade L. WIlliams or move away from him next season. Ferrell is a stupid pick. When no one else is picking Ferrell why not trade down with somebody and pick Ferrell later? But I am not complaining since it led to Ed Oliver to us.  I also got Josh Allen to Jags wrong - but that was a consequence of the above two mistakes - he was just too good for the Jags to pass up - and it didnt affect the Bills pick relative to expectations since he was always expected to go before #9.

 

On the Flip side, I got 6 picks right (as far as implications for the Bills is concerned). And oh yes, we got Ed Oliver baby!!! Besides, the DT needs being picks below us as predicted, it took a QB reach at #6 (again as predicted) and a surprising pick at 4 to get there - but we called it!! WTG. Let us now enjoy Rounds 2 and 3.

On 4/25/2019 at 3:11 PM, NewEra said:

I’ll bet you whatever you want that Oliver isn’t there at 9

Shd have taken your bet mate! ? But it is all good. Worked out well for us. It is a "New Era"  at OBD.

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I got two picks out of the top 9 totally wrong - Quinnen Williams to the Jets and Clelin Ferrell to the Raiders. Quinnen Williams because the fit is just so bad next to Leonard WIlliams. I guess it just means the Jets will try to trade L. WIlliams or move away from him next season. Ferrell is a stupid pick. When no one else is picking Ferrell why not trade down with somebody and pick Ferrell later? But I am not complaining since it led to Ed Oliver to us.  I also got Josh Allen to Jags wrong - but that was a consequence of the above two mistakes - he was just too good for the Jags to pass up - and it didnt affect the Bills pick relative to expectations since he was always expected to go before #9.

 

On the Flip side, I got 6 picks right (as far as implications for the Bills is concerned). And oh yes, we got Ed Oliver baby!!! Besides, the DT needs being picks below us as predicted, it took a QB reach at #6 (again as predicted) and a surprising pick at 4 to get there - but we called it!! WTG. Let us now enjoy Rounds 2 and 3.

Shd have taken your bet mate! ? But it is all good. Worked out well for us. It is a "New Era"  at OBD.

Should have.  But you knew it was a bad bet.  Thank god for Mayock and Gettleman.  Even the lions royally screwed that up .

 

it worked out SO well

[IgotBILLStopay]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Should have.  But you knew it was a bad bet.  Thank god for Mayock and Gettleman.  Even the lions royally screwed that up .

 

it worked out SO well

Hey you missed the point. It was not a bad bet at all. If so, I would not have put a 60% number on our getting Ed Oliver. If you see carefully, I actually considered Hock to the Lions and Jones to the Giants as probable outcomes while figuring out the chances of Ed Oliver being there at 9. In betting, you have to go with probabilities. Which means accounting for "bad" decisions people might take:). I even posted you that Vegas was showing the Over / Under for Ed Oliver getting picked at 7.5. 

Edited April 26, 2019 by IgotBILLStopay

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Hey you missed the point. It was not a bad bet at all. If so, I would not have put a 60% number on our getting Ed Oliver. If you see carefully, I actually considered Hock to the Lions and Jones to the Giants as probable outcomes while figuring out the chances of Ed Oliver being there at 9. In betting, you have to go with probabilities. Which means accounting for "bad" decisions people might take:). I even posted you that Vegas was showing the Over / Under for Ed Oliver getting picked at 7.5. 

Vegas has it at 7.5 so that means the likelihood of him lasting til 9 is less than.  Detroit passing on Oliver for hockenson is just ridiculous.  The giants taking Jones is even more ridiculous.  The raiders taking Ferrell so high (with other options on the board) is even more ridiculous.  That’s 3 ridiculous (imo) picks that allowed Oliver to make it to 9.  

 

I had a 3rd rd grade on Jones.  So in my world of “probability” there’s little chance he was picked at 6.   They’ll most likely regret this pick based on 3 series that Gettleman aw at the senior bowl (and cutcliffe + Manning’s).  It was the perfect storm for the Bills.

 

If you look carefully you’ll see that there’s a reason that everyone is saying it’s the biggest steal in the draft.  That there’s a reason Beane was shocked that he was available at 9.  That there’s a reason we’re even talking about this.  That reason: because not many people thought Oliver would make it to 9.  He was one of 5 elite players according to most. 

 

I wont be revisiting the probability of drivel 

 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

On 4/26/2019 at 4:40 PM, NewEra said:

Vegas has it at 7.5 so that means the likelihood of him lasting til 9 is less than.  Detroit passing on Oliver for hockenson is just ridiculous.  The giants taking Jones is even more ridiculous.  The raiders taking Ferrell so high (with other options on the board) is even more ridiculous.  That’s 3 ridiculous (imo) picks that allowed Oliver to make it to 9.  

 

I had a 3rd rd grade on Jones.  So in my world of “probability” there’s little chance he was picked at 6.   They’ll most likely regret this pick based on 3 series that Gettleman aw at the senior bowl (and cutcliffe + Manning’s).  It was the perfect storm for the Bills.

 

If you look carefully you’ll see that there’s a reason that everyone is saying it’s the biggest steal in the draft.  That there’s a reason Beane was shocked that he was available at 9.  That there’s a reason we’re even talking about this.  That reason: because not many people thought Oliver would make it to 9.  He was one of 5 elite players according to most. 

 

I wont be revisiting the probability of drivel 

 

 

Again you are missing the point. As I said, the draft set up perfectly for the Bills since very few teams needed DTs. Only 3 of the top 8 teams (Cards, Jets, Jags) went BPA inspite of need. In your mind these are ridiculous picks. But when you are projecting who will be available, you have to assess the chance that GMs will make those picks. Those GMs have an existing roster to add to and they have needs. Hock to Detroit and Jones / Haskins to Giants always had significant chances.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Again you are missing the point. As I said, the draft set up perfectly for the Bills since very few teams needed DTs. Only 3 of the top 8 teams (Cards, Jets, Jags) went BPA inspite of need. In your mind these are ridiculous picks. But when you are projecting who will be available, you have to assess the chance that GMs will make those picks. Those GMs have an existing roster to add to and they have needs. Hock to Detroit and Jones / Haskins to Giants always had significant chances.

Bottom line.  If the Raiders take the best pass rusher available in everyone eyes, Josh allen instead of a top 20 Clelin Ferrell we aren’t talking about this.  Ed Oliver is a Jag

 

Not sure why I’m talking about this.  Oh yeah, because you set the probability of the raiders selecting a lesser player at over 50%.  Obviously.  

[Boca BIlls]

So you got 2 of the picks correct the two that were locked in for a while now.

[IgotBILLStopay]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Bottom line.  If the Raiders take the best pass rusher available in everyone eyes, Josh allen instead of a top 20 Clelin Ferrell we aren’t talking about this.  Ed Oliver is a Jag

 

Not sure why I’m talking about this.  Oh yeah, because you set the probability of the raiders selecting a lesser player at over 50%.  Obviously.  

 

Why would the Jags ever draft Ed Oliver? They just drafted Taven Bryan in the first round last year. If you had followed their games last year, they gave Malik Jackson's snaps to Taven Bryan in the last 4 games. They are excited about Bryan as the 3-tech (Ed Oliver's position) and want to see more of him there. That is why they were comfortable moving on from Malik Jackson.

If Raiders take Josh Allen, there was a good chance Jags were going Jawaan Taylor - so even then  Oliver falls to us.   Alternatively, Steelers might have traded with Jags to get Devin Bush. Heck, even we might have traded up to get Oliver. 

 

If you draw basic decision trees, you will see that chances remain high that we get Ed Oliver regardless of whether Raiders take Clelin Ferrell or Josh Allen. That is the point.

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

So you got 2 of the picks correct the two that were locked in for a while now.

The point of the probabilistic exercise is how many places / paths have the guy you want going before  9  (Ed Oliver), not how many you mock to each team as your best guess. A single mock only offers one path to 9.

 

That said, I am pretty kicked I had Hockenson to Detroit, White to TB and Jones to Giants as reasonably probable outcomes in my tree. Josh Allen going to Jags instead of the Raiders / Jets did not really affect our chances to get Oliver since he was going top 8 anyway and the Jags were not going to take Oliver. The Giants were the critical team: If they had not gone QB, that would have affected chances of Oliver being there (That is why I said we needed no trade up AND at least 2 QBs in the first 8 for Oliver to be there). Even if the Giants had not gone QB, there was a chance they would have picked Devin White so long as Washington had traded with the Bucs for #5 and taken Haskins as was rumored. Even in such a scenario Oliver would have fallen to us. 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

Here is what Brandon Beane had to say about Oliver falling to us:

 

https://expo.newyorkupstate.com/sports/g66l-2019/04/8245878c04d84/buffalo-bills-gm-brandon-beane-on-why-he-drafted-ed-oliver.html

 

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Yeah, we liked where we were at nine. You don't truly know how it's going to fall, there's a lot of smoke about how many quarterbacks are going to go or not going to go. We felt if a couple of quarterbacks went, we were hoping for three, just to make it safe, that we'd get a player that we felt was definitely worthy of nine and that's what we think we did.

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One we had three quarterbacks going before us and he did fall to us. The two-quarterback one I think he did [fall to nine], but when it was one quarterback I don’t think he ever fell. 

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The other part you worry about is you try to figure out what teams are really dying to get. We were worried with Detroit on the clock, even if he wasn’t necessarily a perfect fit for them, somebody trading up and getting him. 

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Once Dave Gettleman and the Giants took the second quarterback, things started to take shape on our board that we’re going to get a player that’s that high on our board.

 

"No one Trades up" plus "more than one QB drafted before us" we get the player we want (Oliver!). Beane's pre-draft scenarios / conclusions were similar to ours!! 

Edited April 29, 2019 by IgotBILLStopay