Allocating money to our o-line

[jahnyc]

I think the o-line disucssions on the board have been really interesting. Here are some additoinal thoughts.

 

Some posters have brought up a very good point: with free agency and the cap, it is almost impossible to build strong, cohesive units on both offense and defense. I agree with that to a point. For this reason, I think in analyzing our o-line situation, you need to consider the following:

 

1. Are we allocating our money to offense and defense and the various positions appropriately? and

 

2. Are we getting good value for the money that we are spending on the various positions?

 

Regarding the first, I believe we are spending too much on our safety position with Vincent and Milloy. Milloy has played really well, but most teams do not seem to spend the way we do for these positions. We are also are spending a lot on linebacker, but I think we are getting our money's worth. This merits more discussion and analysis, but I don't think we are overpaying except for one position which leads to the second point.

 

I think we are significantly overpaying for RT (M. Williams). As a comparison, K. McKenzie, the top free agent RT this year, signed a deal averaging $5 million per year. I think our o-line would be stronger if we took the $9 million that we are paying to Williams and allocated it to RT and LT or some other combination of positions. I think M. Williams has improved, but I think we can use the money we are paying him more effectively.

 

Thoughts?

[BillsGuyInMalta]

I dont think anyone here thinks that Mike Williams is worth 9 million bucks a year, and we'd all love to take that money and spend it towards FAs. Sadly, we cant...cutting Big Mike only screws us further with the salary cap and he wont restructure. So we are stuck with what we got for the O-Line.

[Sound_n_Fury]

I think we are significantly overpaying for RT (M. Williams).  As a comparison, K. McKenzie, the top free agent RT this year, signed a deal averaging $5 million per year. 

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MW's contract is a byproduct of being the 4th pick overall in his draft class. No matter the position, top-5 picks are going to warrent large signing bonuses and back-loaded contracts that eventually throw per-position salary allocations out of whack (unless the original contract can be renegotiated, which MW seems unwilling to do).

 

Being good year after year, and drafting near the bottom of the round, is especially important in the salary cap era. You may not end up with a lot of superstars, but if you draft well, the value-per position equation will be much better, helping the team stay together longer before it has to be torn down and rebuilt.

[Bill from NYC]

I dont think anyone here thinks that Mike Williams is worth 9 million bucks a year, and we'd all love to take that money and spend it towards FAs.  Sadly, we cant...cutting Big Mike only screws us further with the salary cap and he wont restructure.  So we are stuck with what we got for the O-Line.

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Good post! The Bills cannot, in all probability, cut Big Mike until after 6/1/06. This season will be his do or die year in terms of staying on this football team.

 

Looking back, MW was a pretty bad choice by TD, but the draft was not especially strong. Also, the OL was SO bad at that time, there was no other direction for him to go.

 

If MW, the highest paid RT in NFL history, plays at a pro bowl level, his cap hit will be easier to live with. Sadly, whether or not he will do so is a crap shoot at best.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I think your good pos raises a couple of points:

 

1. The Milloy spending is a tough one to judge because like it or not folks he has been a contributor to this team and he really has shown that though he clearly is on the downhill side of his career he has proved to be a productive player for the Bills.His tackle numbers have only trailed those of the playmaking Bills LBs, his prescence coincided with far greater productivity from our D and from time to time he has proven to be a playmaker with some crucial fumble recoveries and sacks.

 

Though his gargantuan cap hit makes this good but no great productivity questionable in terms of bang for the buck, people who view this only in terms of tackles/dollar are forgetting the fact that when he came into the maket supply and demand told the story for setting his salary not an absolute assssment of his production. When he suddenly entered the market when BB bollicksed negotiations with him and had to cut him he was the only former pro bowl safety available. This happened to coincide with the Bills agreeing to terms with Cota and then Battles only to see them retire. Add to that the Bears also were in the market for a safety and had tons of cap room and though TD paid a mint for him it was what the market demanded.

 

Overall, am expemsove but necessary signing for us.

 

2. TSW posters routinely over-value the draft as THE key part of a strategy for building a good team. It is an important part because good players have to come from somewhere. However, it offers as many problems as much as advantages because:

 

A. The slotting makes early draft choices a likely negative for a team to have as even if a player does well his cap hit makes it impossible for your team to win (ex: Manning and Leaf have delivered exactly the same number of SB berths and even virtually the same number of playoff wins to the teams that drafted them despite the extraordinary difference in their quality of play(.

 

B. TD estimates it at about 50/50 that a 1st round draft pick will turn out to be a good player in this league and I have seen no numbers to doubt this estimate. Being good is simply not a reliable defense to offset the cap problem caused by 1st round picks.

 

In my view the best thing TD has done is routinely trade away our first round pick, trade down to a lower pick to get and get the guy we want like Clements, or pick a wounded phenom like WM so he can sign him to a reasonable cap number so you don't het hit as often by the likely 1st round disasters.

 

Fantasy league addicion and our fascination with stats makes us fans love the drama of the draft, but it flat out sucks in terms of winning football.

[Bill from NYC]

Other than Warner and Faulk, how would you say that the Rams built their superbowl winning team? Orlando Pace, the 1st pick of the draft, was as responsible as was any player, no?

Additionally, the Ravens would probably not have got it done without draft picks such as Lewis and Ogden.

Imo, one winning method (there are others) is to pay the bucks to blockers such as Ogden, Pace or Jones.

 

Mike Williams makes more than all three of these guys. The Bills will never win while in this situation.

[obie_wan]

 

2. TSW posters routinely over-value the draft as THE key part of a strategy for building a good team. 

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Absolutely incorrect.

 

The Draft need to be THE most important source of building a team because the costs paid to any rookie are lower than what it would cost to acquire similar production in free agency or through trade.

 

Unfortunately, this has not been the case for the Bills.

 

 

The problem with Teflon Tom is that the actual produciton of his draft picks for the most part has not matched his evaluation and their slotted salaries.

 

The problem is not the draft as a tool, it is Teflon Tom's inability to use it to obtain quality players.

 

He did take a chance on Willis - but the evaluation of talent was not the issue with him.

 

Mike Williams, Josh Reed, Ryan Denney, most draft picks after round 3, - all have produced significantly worse than projected. How many mid and low round picks have actually contributed at all?

 

Compare to NE who has OL from the mid-rounds and a certain QB from round 6 starting and producing at high levels. Their top picks, like Seymour and Wilfork are a force on the field.

 

The only reason the draft is not more important to the Bills in acquiring talent is that our front office has difficulty identifying the corrrect players to pick.

[d_wag]

I dont think anyone here thinks that Mike Williams is worth 9 million bucks a year, and we'd all love to take that money and spend it towards FAs.  Sadly, we cant...cutting Big Mike only screws us further with the salary cap and he wont restructure.  So we are stuck with what we got for the O-Line.

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how do you know he "won't restructure"? he may be reluctant to sign an extension at the dollars TD is offering, but a straight restructuring takes no dollars out of his pocket and actually is beneficial to him because it gives him his money today opposed to over the course of the season.......

[obie_wan]

how do you know he "won't restructure"? he may be reluctant to sign an extension at the dollars TD is offering, but a straight restructuring takes no dollars out of his pocket and actually is beneficial to him because it gives him his money today opposed to over the course of the season.......

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any re-structuring that turns base salary into signing bonus will by defintion require that an additional year be added to the contract (otherwise there is no term to which the signing bonus can be attributed)

[d_wag]

any re-structuring that turns base salary into signing bonus will by defintion require that an additional year be added to the contract (otherwise there is no term to which the signing bonus can be attributed)

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not a simple restructuring..........

 

for example:

 

MW is scheduled to earn 4M in salary for '05..........let's say the bills convert 3M of that into a roster bonus and then amortize it over the length of the deal........so the bills would save 2M in cap room for '05 and add 1M to MW cap charge in '06 and '07.......

 

this is what the panthers did with peppers contract.........you don't need to add an extra year to the contract........

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Most free agents signings are going to be paid less than existing player contracts. The first year of contracts are always low.

 

I think we are significantly overpaying for RT (M. Williams).  As a comparison, K. McKenzie, the top free agent RT this year, signed a deal averaging $5 million per year. 

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[obie_wan]

not a simple restructuring..........

 

for example:

 

MW is scheduled to earn 4M in salary for '05..........let's say the bills convert 3M of that into a roster bonus and then amortize it over the length of the deal........so the bills would save 2M in cap room for '05 and add 1M to MW cap charge in '06 and '07.......

 

this is what the panthers did with peppers contract.........you don't need to add an extra year to the contract........

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a roster bonus is not guaranteed and does not get amortized. Player earns it when he makes the roster.

[d_wag]

a roster bonus is not guaranteed and does not get amortized. Player earns it when he makes the roster.

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signing bonus then, whatever.......your talking symatics........the point is the bills can save money on this year's cap by shifting money into future years without adding an extra year to MW's contract.........this isn't that complex and happens all the time in the NFL.........

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

My apologis for not cliffnoting this too long screed, but a is my habit, i started this this morning and came back to it and added on to it throughout the day. hence it probably jumps a little bit but i had fun thinking this through and refreshing my brain with football stuff inserted into work stuff.

 

Absolutely incorrect.

 

The Draft need to be THE most important source of building a team because the costs paid to any rookie are lower than what it would cost to acquire similar production in free agency or through trade.

 

Unfortunately, this has not been the case for the Bills.

The problem with Teflon Tom is that the actual produciton of his draft picks for the most part has not matched his evaluation and their slotted salaries.

 

The problem is not the draft as a tool, it is Teflon Tom's inability to use it to obtain quality players.

 

He did take a chance on Willis - but the evaluation of talent was not the issue with him.

 

Mike Williams, Josh Reed, Ryan Denney, most draft picks after round 3, - all have produced significantly worse than projected. How many mid and low round picks have actually contributed at all?

 

Compare to NE who has OL from the mid-rounds and a certain QB from round 6 starting and producing at high levels. Their top picks, like Seymour and Wilfork are a force on the field.

 

The only reason the draft is not more important to the Bills in acquiring talent is that our front office has difficulty identifying the corrrect players to pick.

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I think you are mostly (rather than absolutely) incorrect.

 

Obviously building a winning team is a mix. The draft is a key part but far from the MOST important part because there are so many factors and so much variability that it simply is never ALWAYS one way of doing this.

 

Even in cases where the draft may be judged to be the leading factor, I think that in these cases at best it would be MOST (though in the modern NFL of moving players it is never even the leading factor compared to other keys to building a winner) it is a plurality of responsibility (1st but less than 50%) rather than the majority of the leading reason (over 50% of the responsibility).

 

I think you are correct in pointing to getting value from the lower part of the draft as the most important part of the draft for building a winner. However, I think this point bolsters my argument that the best thing TD has done for the Bills in the draft was:

 

1. to trade away the 1st round picks for immediate help (getting Losman in 2004 for a 2005 pick was a great move because it allowed us to get a one year training jump on using the 2005 pick for our QB of the future, allowed us to use the 2005 pick on a QB of the future when the 2005 QB class is judged to be poor and allowed us to get our QB of the future as our 2nd pick in the draft eliminating the usual premium that 1st round QB choices get), to trade down and get the help we need from lower picks.

 

In addition, even if you hate Bledsoe, its tough to argue against the fact that we needed a QB after RJ/AVP showed thy weren't the answer, that at least for 2002 Bledsoe merited his reserve Pro Bowl nod with is play on the field (if you disagree fine but if not then who do you say deserved it more that year), and off the field the acquisition of Bledsoe was sold and marketed (even if you think it was falsely) to Bills fans as a rebirth after a 3-13 season and the trade represented TD doing his job for Ralph as GM and helping the product ant the bottomline.

 

2. to trade down and to make picks for need players in the first round lower down. In addition to the great fiscal and now on the field move of picking WM, he also deserves a tip of the hat for reading the draft correctly and getting Kelsay who was promoted by some as a player deserving a 1st round pick with a second round choice and thus lower slotted salary.

 

Your citing of NE is interesting because I think they are example number 1 of the importance of how you mix as the MOST important thing rather than identifying one method of team improvement as the MOST important thing. One only has to llok at the fact of how their run began with their 2001 season win and recognize that they picked up almost a third of this team after June 1st as cap casualties like A. Smith to see the importance of FA as their team building method. True the draft was a key part of the mix, but I think it stretches things to claim this was the MOST important part of their 2001 championship win as most of their draftees like Seymour and Wilfork are good players but easily replaceable cogs in the machine (see Seymour and his injury this year as an example).

 

Amusingly the best case to make for a great draft move by NE was picking Tom Brady in the 6th. He does seak to the importance of the draft as one of the tools, but you have to ignore a lot to recognize that dumb luck and the Jets Lewis who collapsed Bledsoe's lung were the keys to their success with getting Brday into the line-up in time for him even to pull off his heroics.

 

The NE example also brings you smack in the face of high $ FA purchases like Rodney Harrison being a key to the winning ways of this team easily as much as the draft. One need look no further than Roosevelt Colvin to see that FA also is no panacea. The MOST important part is not one single part but how skill and dumb luck allow you to get the right mix.

 

As far as your indictment of Teflon Tom, i just don't think that an examination of all the facts allows this indictment to hold much water.

 

Offhand (and in need of many suggestions and improvement because there will be items I will leave off) I'd judge TD's work as GM as:

 

A. 1st day of the draft- Better than most because he uses this as a tool so he his willing to manipulate it to turn future speculaive resouces into upfront more tangible gains. His upper round picks are thus: 2001 Clements- great pick as he got the guy he wanted and we needed with a lower pick. Schobel- good pick, Henry- good pick who made the Pro Bowl as a reserve, Edwards- failed pick so far but this year is his make or break but we did a get a year as our best DT starter out of him, Jennings- good pick.

 

2002- MW- not worthy of the salary his lofty position brought him but this year is make-or-break for this pick with him starting, Henry's production behind him, and his revival just prior to and during the streak providing any hope here. He is argument #1 why you should trade 1st round picks away rather than make them, Reed, good production his first year had led to extreme disappoinment with his play his next two years. best thing you can say about him is that his prescence and first year play made us comfortable enough to let PP go and get WM for the pick, I am as doubtful about him as I am hopeful about WM, Denney- good pick by TD stealing him off the phone from Pitts as we needed a DE bad but OL worse (MW) and getting a talked about 1st rounder who produced well enough as a rookie allowing us to let PP go for WM, he started bad as he was left inactive, but proved to be the best DE we had deserving his start in 2003 on a team with a top 5 statistical D and though passed by Kelsay allowed us to go with just three DEs last year on top 2 statistical D because of his flexibility, Wire- a failed choice so far also in a make or break year. His failure probably has less to do with his talent (good hitter with good speed and a bright boy) and blatant mismanagement of his development as miscaculation of how much Jenkins had left had him thrown in at safety to start which he had never played at any level of organized ball. TD bears the blame for this because he hired GW, but drafting Wire does not strike me as the mistake TD made with Wire.

 

2003- WM- great choice. Kelsay- great choice particularly passing on him for WM speculation and picking him up in the 2nd, folks would have been disappointed but accepting of him if TD had picked him instead of WM, Crowell- an example that even after two seasons it is too early to draw final conclusions, has been a good ST player on a top-ranked unit but not a starter at LB (we haven't needed one though Posey provides an opening) if one insists that a first day pick should start.

 

2004- way too early to judge though kudos to TD for getting our QB of the future with the 2005 pick a year early. This use of the pick defines getting something (a year of needed training) for nothing.

 

Overall- I think you have to judge TD's first day performance with 1st day draft picks as above the norm (proving me wrong is simple though time consuming to produce actual facts that show my sense of this to be wrong- what 11 teams did better with their 1st day picks during TDs time here?). If you can produce this list of 10-11 then he is average. I don't think this is possible not to mention finding 21 better teams with production of 1st day draft picks that would show him to be worse than average.

 

This calculation doesn't even add the Bledsoe factor which paid off for us in a big way in 2002 as the 2003 pick which would produce nothing for us in 2002 was turned into acquisition of a player who QB'ed us when we went from 3-13 to 8-8, set 11 (I think) single season Bills passing records and qualified for the Pro Bowl (if you disagree name the player who you think made DB the 4th most deserving QB in the AFC of this honor. To me the acquisition of Bledsoe with the 2003 draft pick was a wash at worst because his 2002 was pretty good and his 2003 sucked as bad as you want to suck, He should have been cut in the 2003-4 off-season but (particularly if you want to tanlgle the web with replacing the pick used for Bledsoe with the pick for WM which replaced it) I think it is beside the point of this assessment for the most part as I view DB a wash if TD had not made the mistake of resigning him. I'd give him a B+ at worse and probably an A- for his first day draft work.

 

B. 2nd day of th draft- 2001- Her is where you can begin t show that TD has not accomplished the Andre Reedesque job of finding productive starters late in the draft. I have no idea how prevalent this is in the reat of the league as clearly there are high profile cases where this has been done (Brady- 6th round, Dever;s RB whatever his name was) but generally somone would need to show in a statical way beyond anecdotes like Wilfork that the typical NFL GM produces a starter from the second day picks before credibly faulting Teflon Tom for not doing this. He has not produced these players himself so obviously he is not among the best at second day picks, but the case needs more than simply saying he sucks to really be believable that everyone else does not suck drafting starters on the second day as well.

 

The 2001 2nd day crew amounted to 7 picks (a good thing because we were rebuilding and we needed them). TD failed as none of these 7 are still with the team. However, I don't think you can label this a total failure as he did get 2 somewhat productive years out of the play of Spoon and Sullivan. In addition, 2 of these seven failed due to injuries (Germany) and crime (the flyer Robertson) and it is tough to fault a GM for these choices. TD was not among the best here but without some showing that the norm is better this does not seen anywhere near a firable offense,

 

2002- Only 3 of 6 are still on the roster (with Pucillo only marginally there as a UFA). With these 6, Thomas looks like a good pick who plays a solid backup role which strikes me as consistent with a 6th round player. He merited the tender we gave him. Bannan looked good as rookie, but seems to show more promise as a G in the redzone than for use as the DT he was drafed as. The lose of Phat Pat to FA should give him a chance to show what he can do as a DT.

 

2003- Again too early to tell, but many signs point to the play of these 5 second day players to have been an outstanding job by TD and the crew. The play of McGee who actually made and deserved a Pro Bowl nod last year s he set team records for kick returns is just what you want out of a second day find. If TD had made similar hits with his first two drafts then one could easily judge him in the upoper reaches but he did not so judging him average at best seems reasonable. However, McGee has performed and due to his ST play and injury is essentially contributing like a starter. In addition, Aiken is a back-up who gets field time and has the potential to achieve value as our #3 WR which is not equal to the hopes MW has turned his game around, but nor is it equal to the likelihood of failure of a Reed. Haggan is like Crowell. However, though Crowell has not lived up to 1st day expectatuions and cap hit, Haggan has easily lived up to 2nd day expectations and cap hit with his play on ST. Sape and Sobieski are PS players who TD gets credit for them still being on the roster, but neither shows any signs of being productive Bills though gaps left by the starters on OL and DT make it too early to declare them busts yet.

 

2004- Too early to tell. However, mention should be made that 2nd day choice Smith already has produced a TD and may well be the PR guy we have wanted and allow Clements to risk his neck playing CB rather than risk our CB returning punts, Euhus also has been slowed by injury but his TD and receptions were threatening to give TD and the crew another producing starter taken on the 2nd day.Too early to tell with McFarland but he seems to be ahead of Sobieski in development. He isn't up to the JJ track, but has more in common with his level of production than with the Spbieski non production.

 

Overall on the second day, I think TD easily gets at least a B for the last two year to go with his F the first two years. it's too early to declare victory on the last two drafts, but a Pro Bowl berth for McGee and TDs by Smith and Euhus cannot be ignored either by a real assessment.

 

As far as TD as a draft leader I think you throw in the B+/A- for the first day with the C- for the second day and overall as a GM I would comfortably give him a B (or maybe even a B+) as a draft leader. As I am giving a C to an average drafter. Overall, i think a statistical case which showed other GMs produce a starter a year on the second day of the draft and that other teams in the last 4 years have prodcued substantially more Pro Bowlers from the folks they acquired with 1st day picks (Bledsoe, Henry and Clements have made it), or gotten substantially more starts (though starts such as the Edwards, Denny, Sullivan starts say as much about the weakeness of the Butler left crew as the do about TD's acuman), or some measure of the endorsements of contracts given to draftees (by this measure TD made a great assessment in picking JJ to be drafted though Bills fans may have trouble with his FA management).

 

I just do not think that the indictment of TD being worse than the norm in terms of draft assessment and draft resouce manipulation is based on anything beyond unsbustntiated or episodically substantiated opinion.

 

Overall, my quick sense of TD is this (listed in no order of import as i think hiring an HC is far more important to building a winner than draft management and is the primary failing why TD has produced such a poor W/L during his era.

 

Draft Direction B+ (A- 1st day C- second day). The results of achievement in the last two years of second day choices like McGee, Euhus and Smith provides some great hop here.

 

Hiring HCs C-. think GW was an F inspired by TD needing to hire someone he could fire if they got into a fight like he and Cowher did. i think that MM has proved to be a B- hire after one season. He is a significantly better than average (my C) but did not make the playoffs which would have earned him a solid B in my book even if he made an early exit. Feel free to lower this grade to a D if 3 years of GW weigh more heavily than a year of MM.

 

FA dealing- A- I give TD high marks for gauging the market well and attracting FAs like Spikes here even though it is not the big city. His handling and management of the Sam Adams deal was masterful. The signing of Moorman to a long term deal was brilliant. I agree with his decision not to invest what the market gave to AW, JJ and Phat Pat in these players. They are good players but simply overpriced at what the market will bear.

 

I'm tempted to reduce this grade to a B+ because he has totally misread the kickers market and extending JH and HJ when he got here to simply cut them was dumb. However, these strike me as minor issues compared to the general trend.

 

Managing the Business- A- As best as i can tell on the interstices of returning a dollar to Ralph TD has done all that the master requires of him and more, From hgigh profile individual deals like the partnership with St. John's Fisher to day to day management issues TD seems to be doing a great off the field job and this probably matters as much as his on field production in terms of keeping Ralph happy though us fans couldn't care less and measure his performance by on field stuff.

 

Assembling a staff- B TD has been able to attract and hire quality folks from Tom Modrak to the medical staff that made the right call on WM. Despite the high quality of most of the braintrust, this grade gets pulled down by GW being allowed a bunch of guys who were simply not ready for primetime on his coaching staff. The grade was much lower a year ago as the GW crew (particularly the fire Kevin Killdrive and Ruel) simply weighed down this effort and the good folks generally hired. The Bills seemed to have been able to retain for the most part the good folks from the GW era (error) like Gray while letting the worst go elsewhere.

 

At any rate, overall I think despite the fact many of the particulars are well run TD still gets an overall grade of at best a C-. W/L is the ultimate measure and it is only because the current record is finally a winning one at 9-7 which bodes well for the future that he is not anchored at F because othe massive failure under GW.

[obie_wan]

signing bonus then, whatever.......your talking symatics........the point is the bills can save money on this year's cap by shifting money into future years without adding an extra year to MW's contract.........this isn't that complex and happens all the time in the NFL.........

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to be a "signing" bonus, the player needs to "sign up" for additional time on his contract.

[d_wag]

to be a "signing" bonus, the player needs to "sign up" for additional time on his contract.

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blah blah blah.........you never addressed the point...........the bills can save money on this year's cap by shifting cap hit into future years without adding an extra year to MW's contract...........

 

you have heard the term "simple restructuring", right? that is when you convert salary to signing bonus and amortize it over the the remainder of the deal.......that doesn't add years to the contract but does move cap hit........it's really not that complicated and quite common.........