A positional value chart...to apply to the draft evals

[BADOLBILZ]

I just think you would have to draft exceptionally well rounds 2 through 5 to mitigate the risk that when your franchise guy arrives you are ao talent depleted that you set him up to fail.

 

Peyton Manning is likely Peyto Manning whenever and wherever he is drafted... but beyond him I don't think QBs are who they are... situation and circumstance ans coaching matters hugely for me. Drew Brees was not Drew Brees in San Diego for instance.

 

I don't think your preference for picking Quarterbacks is wrong and I don't think they should be valued 1 for 1 on talent against other positions I just think valuing them over twice as much and taking one in the first every or almost every year would set one who could be good up to fail when he arrives.

 

I look at it this way........IMO the Bills have had at least as much overall roster talent in each of the last 4 seasons as the lesser teams that have actually made the playoffs.........it's hard to argue with that, IMO.....the Bills have sometimes stomped those teams during the regular season during that period.......... but until some very recent successes they had almost nothing at all to show for their top picks in each draft from 2000-2010.

 

They have had more success lately......Gilmore, Dareus and Watkins are excellent players........but in 2011 they had almost nothing to show for the previous decade of first round picks........and from lackluster drafts in general that were very NEED based........AND YET it didn't take them long at all to restock the roster once Buddy started trying to replicate the approach they used in San Diego......build around being bigger and more physical in the trenches.

 

And they could have just as easily done that by focusing on rounds 2-7. I think sometimes teams actually hurt themselves by drafting a position in round 1 and then subsequently passing on value at that same position in later rounds.

 

So if you are strong in the rest of the draft then there is no question in my mind that you could be very successful without addressing regular position players in round 1.

 

Yes you need good coaching and systems to make it work too.

 

But I think sometimes Bills fans fall back on this idea that "well, that great QB wouldn't have amounted to anything if he played for Buffalo" excuse....... rationalizing that the grapes were probably sour anyway........but I think in most systems good QB's will be good.

 

BTW Drew Brees may very well have become Drew Brees in SD. He had something of a down year his last year in SD but he was sensational the year before that and was really just growing into the position more than anything else.

 

He might not have put up the absolutely gaudy passing numbers but I think he would have still been a perennial pro bowl QB.

[BADOLBILZ]

Darby caught on pretty quick.

 

Still I really hope safety or corner isn't the pick in round 1 or 2.

 

I'd love a big talented WR opposite Sammy if one falls.

 

Darby caught on fast because the boundary CB's jobs are very simple in RR D.......the opportunity for great confusion is at the other 9 positions........who are basically trying to confuse the opposing offense rather than beat them mano a mano.

 

I don't think a safety in round one would be a great idea at all........and I don't think there is a S that talented there either.

 

I'd like a big, talented WR. That's their #1 need, IMO. They need to give Tyrod as much help as possible to offset any adjustments that are made by DC's to dissect his game.

 

I'm intrigued by Treadwell because I think he could excel outside if needed but might be even more dangerous in the slot.....with deep threats on opposite sides drawing attention away from the underneath and middle.

 

His modest speed and quicks would be greatly offset by lining up against #3 CB and LB's, obviously.

 

I'm not sure he will even be there or if he's the fit at #19......if there is better talent at those key spots available that's the way they should go because drafting for need is bad policy and he could end up struggling as a rookie anyway..............but in general there is not a lot of other high profile big WR talent in this draft.

 

It's not going to be like the 2014 class where there were many dominant rookies, that I think is for certain.

[Bill from NYC]

i think some of what might have been LT talent in the past could be ending up on the DL and at TE now.

 

I mean........what kid really wants to play a position where they don't get to make plays or even have any stats?

Great point and you are probably correct.

 

Several years ago I had coffee with Jumbo Elliot. He said that because of the huge salary, college kids would want to play LT and many of them lack the ability to do so. It would seem that trend has reversed, and it makes sense with the rule changes.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Bill from NYC

[GunnerBill]

 

I look at it this way........IMO the Bills have had at least as much overall roster talent in each of the last 4 seasons as the lesser teams that have actually made the playoffs.........it's hard to argue with that, IMO.....the Bills have sometimes stomped those teams during the regular season during that period.......... but until some very recent successes they had almost nothing at all to show for their top picks in each draft from 2000-2010.

 

They have had more success lately......Gilmore, Dareus and Watkins are excellent players........but in 2011 they had almost nothing to show for the previous decade of first round picks........and from lackluster drafts in general that were very NEED based........AND YET it didn't take them long at all to restock the roster once Buddy started trying to replicate the approach they used in San Diego......build around being bigger and more physical in the trenches.

 

And they could have just as easily done that by focusing on rounds 2-7. I think sometimes teams actually hurt themselves by drafting a position in round 1 and then subsequently passing on value at that same position in later rounds.

 

So if you are strong in the rest of the draft then there is no question in my mind that you could be very successful without addressing regular position players in round 1.

 

Yes you need good coaching and systems to make it work too.

 

But I think sometimes Bills fans fall back on this idea that "well, that great QB wouldn't have amounted to anything if he played for Buffalo" excuse....... rationalizing that the grapes were probably sour anyway........but I think in most systems good QB's will be good.

 

BTW Drew Brees may very well have become Drew Brees in SD. He had something of a down year his last year in SD but he was sensational the year before that and was really just growing into the position more than anything else.

 

He might not have put up the absolutely gaudy passing numbers but I think he would have still been a perennial pro bowl QB.

 

Let me be clear that I am not saying any good Quarterback would have been bad in Buffalo just because it's Buffalo. My point is more than putting a potentially good professional QB into a situation where the team has minimal talent is setting him up to fail. I have no doubt that there are some guys out there that could have been good Quarterbacks who went into bad situations where they were expected to start early on teams with minimal talent who have failed early and never recovered their confidence. Once you stop trusting yourself and trusting what you are seeing you are done as a QB for me. Alex Smith might be the one exception that proves the rule in being a guy who failed early and recovered to have a decent career.

it

 

I don't think we are that far apart on general draft strategy #Badol..... The only difference is I think if there is someone you think can be elite at one of the other cornerstone positions then that trumps just taking the next QB on your board if you don't think that guy can be elite. If there is nobody on your board at a cornerstone position (pass rusher, corner, LT, offensive receiving weapon) that you think has the potential to be elite then I am always ok with reaching for a Quarterback for a lot of the reasons you have articulated.