Eric Moulds ranked 70th, 55th, 54th, 45th

[AKC]

With Eric never reaching higher than the 45th best player at WR over the past 4 seasons- is Moulds that bad or is the system they use to analyze statistics the bigger question?

 

Maybe the question is how does a service with this faulty a set of formulas for statistical analysis convince anyone to espouse its results?

 

Or has Eric Moulds been vastly overpaid for his services in Buffalo?

[taterhill]

With Eric never reaching higher than the 45th best player at WR over the past 4 seasons- is Moulds that bad or is the system they use to analyze statistics the bigger question?

 

Maybe the question is how does a service with this faulty a set of formulas for statistical analysis convince anyone to espouse its results?

 

Or has Eric Moulds been vastly overpaid for his services in Buffalo?

202233[/snapback]

blah blah blah...maybe it has something to do with his QB

[Pete]

Why do opposing defenses double cover Moulds most plays then? I guess they dont read Football Outsiders

[AKC]

blah blah blah...maybe it has something to do with his QB

202235[/snapback]

 

Not by their analysis- his QB was ranked 21st, 30th, 11th and 16th over the same period.

[cashfruit]

the 45th best player in the nfl...or wr? 45th best player i can believe but theres in no way 44 receivers better then him, maybe like 8-10 but 44? thats nuts.

[Like A Mofo]

With Eric never reaching higher than the 45th best player at WR over the past 4 seasons- is Moulds that bad or is the system they use to analyze statistics the bigger question?

 

Maybe the question is how does a service with this faulty a set of formulas for statistical analysis convince anyone to espouse its results?

 

Or has Eric Moulds been vastly overpaid for his services in Buffalo?

202233[/snapback]

 

 

I think its a combo of all the factors in this order:

 

1. QB play

2. Offensive Coordinators (primarily KG)

3. Moulds injury, dropped balls

 

 

Maybe Moulds isnt as great as some think, but I have to think he is better then their rankings indicate.

[AKC]

Why do opposing defenses double cover Moulds most plays then?  I guess they dont read Football Outsiders

202236[/snapback]

 

I'd say Joe Horn and Mushin Muhammed seeing just as many doubles as Eric yet being ranked by the same outfit #2 and #3 this past season would tend to "diminish" that argument.

[AKC]

the 45th best player in the nfl...or wr? 45th best player i can believe but theres in no way 44 receivers better then him, maybe like 8-10 but 44? thats nuts.

202239[/snapback]

 

 

They rank them by position. While their analysis is obviously flawed in major ways, here's the link:

 

WR Rankings by The Football Outsiders

[Pete]

I'd say Joe Horn and Mushin Muhammed seeing just as many doubles as Eric yet being ranked by the same outfit #2 and #3 this past season would tend to "diminish" that argument.

202242[/snapback]

 

You mean like Marvin Harrison? Marvins #s are very comprable to Erics as are Terrell Owens- another elite WR. The main difference between Terrell and Marvin and Eric is Terrell and Marvin have great QBs who throw TDs- unlike Eric

[Alaska Darin]

You mean like Marvin Harrison?  Marvins #s are very comprable to Erics as are Terrell Owens- another elite WR.  The main difference between Terrell and Marvin and Eric is Terrell and Marvin have great QBs who throw TDs- unlike Eric

202249[/snapback]

So does that mean Aaron Brooks and Jake Delhomme are now "great" quarterbacks?

[Pete]

So does that mean Aaron Brooks and Jake Delhomme are now "great" quarterbacks?

202253[/snapback]

They are both better then Drew

[Dawgg]

As I stated in the "other" thread, their methodology in measuring individual players' effectiveness is also adjusted based on the opponent. While I think that is an apt statistical adjustment in measuring the effectiveness of a unit, I do not think it is particularly effective in measuring the effectiveness of an individual player.

 

For wide receivers in particular, it would make more sense to weigh their performance according to the strength of the SECONDARY they faced, rather than their particular unit. For example, a possible enhancement would be to analyze the number of pass plays the defense has faced as a unit, calculate the probability of an interception or pass defend and use that as a coefficient.

 

With Eric never reaching higher than the 45th best player at WR over the past 4 seasons- is Moulds that bad or is the system they use to analyze statistics the bigger question?

 

Maybe the question is how does a service with this faulty a set of formulas for statistical analysis convince anyone to espouse its results?

 

Or has Eric Moulds been vastly overpaid for his services in Buffalo?

202233[/snapback]

[AKC]

You mean like Marvin Harrison?  Marvins #s are very comprable to Erics as are Terrell Owens- another elite WR.  The main difference between Terrell and Marvin and Eric is Terrell and Marvin have great QBs who throw TDs- unlike Eric

202249[/snapback]

 

They have Harrison ranked 13th. Still a WHOLE lot higher than 45th or 55th or 70th. Marvin also has admitted accepting a lesser role in their offense to help the team.

[AKC]

As I stated in the "other" thread, their methodology in measuring individual players' effectiveness is also adjusted based on the opponent. While I think that is an apt statistical adjustment in measuring the effectiveness of a unit, I do not think it is particularly effective in measuring the effectiveness of an individual player.

 

For wide receivers in particular, it would make more sense to weigh their performance according to the strength of the SECONDARY they faced, rather than their particular unit.  For example, a possible enhancement would be to analyze the number of pass plays the defense has faced as a unit, calculate the probability of an interception or pass defend and use that as a coefficient.

202258[/snapback]

 

You endorsed the methodology of The Football Outsiders and also claimed Eric's #45 ranking was based on one bad year. Can you share with us which of these (45, 55, 54, 70) was the "bad" year in your mind- that might help me clear up this football mystery!

[Pete]

So does that mean Aaron Brooks and Jake Delhomme are now "great" quarterbacks?

202253[/snapback]

 

 

Bledsoe 113 TDS in his last 96 games 1.18 TD passes game

Brooks 98 TDs in his last 64 games 1.53 TD passes game

Delhome 48 TDs in his last 32 1.5 TD passes game

[Coach Tuesday]

Here is the explanation of their "rankings":

 

"Wide receivers are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level WR in the same game situations. DPAR (and its cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

 

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

 

DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

 

The simple version: DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play. "

 

 

As you can see, it's not an overall ranking of receivers. It's a ranking of points production relative to other WRs. Therefore, it's not a measure of "true value," unless you define "true value" to consist of points-above-replacement. AKC continues to display his utter lack of intelligence by insisting that these rankings represent something they do not (i.e., the absolute value of a player). Anyone with a brain, on the other hand, would recognize that a statistical measurement is only useful if you explain its assumptions.

[AKC]

Anyone with a brain, on the other hand, would recognize that a statistical measurement is only useful if you explain its assumptions.

202263[/snapback]

 

You like to throw a lot of insults around, but the subject here is the Football Outsiders service you claim makes you intelligent in football matters. Excuse me if I question that but:

 

You're saying anyone with a brain accepts your preferred services rankings of Eric Moulds as the 70th, 54th, 55th and 45th best WR in the game of football the past four seasons?

 

Just a simple YES or NO will suffice- you can pretend it's a really big button you just have to touch!

[Alaska Darin]

Bledsoe 113 TDS in his last 96 games  1.18 TD passes game

Brooks 98 TDs in his last 64 games  1.53 TD passes game

Delhome 48 TDs in his last 32  1.5 TD passes game

202262[/snapback]

So? Individual stats can be manipulated to mask anything you want (which is pretty much the point of this futile thread). BR threw 16 TDs in 15 games.

 

I'm not defending Drew or Eric Moulds. Both have been disappointing over the last couple of seasons - at least some of which is due to each other.

[Coach Tuesday]

You like to throw a lot of names around, but the subject here is the Football Outsiders service you claim makes you intelligent in football matters. Excuse me if I question that but:

 

You're saying anyone with a brain accepts your preferred services rankings of Eric Moulds as the 70th, 54th, 55th and 45th best WR in the game of football the past four seasons?

 

Just a simple YES or NO will suffice- you can pretend it's a really big button you just have to touch!

202267[/snapback]

 

NO. I'm not saying that. Are you really this dumb? I'm saying you need to explain what the rankings are. I've posted their explanations. Do you even understand what they are? Or do you just think that anything labeled "rankings" means, "Best Player to Worst Player"?

[AKC]

So?  Individual stats can be manipulated to mask anything you want (which is pretty much the point of this futile thread).  BR threw 16 TDs in 15 games. 

 

I'm not defending Drew or Eric Moulds.  Both have been disappointing over the last couple of seasons - at least some of which is due to each other.

202268[/snapback]

 

Not on this board Darin- Moulds can only be hurt by the QB, the kicker can only be hurt by the QB, the defense can only be hurt by the QB, but the QB can't be hurt by NO ONE! He must be ONE TOUGH MUTHA!