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What's the over under on TD passes to Fitzy in '12 season?


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My GUESS is that Gailey will dial up 2 TD attempts to Fitzy early this year. One will come from Smith lined up in the Wildcat and the other will be from Vince Young who surprisingly will be on the field at the same time as Fitzy.

 

My guess is that this will suceed once when an opponent gets confused and simply fails to cover Fitzy in the pattern. Even though the other attempt may likely fail, simply by showing the look the opposing DCs will be forced to gameplan for the scheme and run a couple of reps for his team taking away valuable practice time looking at the Bills base O and it tendencies.

 

The over/under for the season will be 2 and the actual number of successful Fitzy pass receptions for TDs will be 1, (the gimmick stops being a gimmick if we use it to much so 3 is pretty doubtful) but Fitzy is a pretty mobile athlete and this season should be fun watching Gsiley use a pretty rediculous amount of threats now that VY is in the fold with a couple of dynamic talents like Spiller and the new speedy WR.

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I think youre absolutely right. The thing is, if we know this particular gimmick will be used, so do all the opponents on our schedule. Everyone will be expecting it. Just amounts to more predictable playcalling from Chan Gailey.

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My GUESS is that Gailey will dial up 2 TD attempts to Fitzy early this year. One will come from Smith lined up in the Wildcat and the other will be from Vince Young who surprisingly will be on the field at the same time as Fitzy.

 

My guess is that this will suceed once when an opponent gets confused and simply fails to cover Fitzy in the pattern. Even though the other attempt may likely fail, simply by showing the look the opposing DCs will be forced to gameplan for the scheme and run a couple of reps for his team taking away valuable practice time looking at the Bills base O and it tendencies.

 

The over/under for the season will be 2 and the actual number of successful Fitzy pass receptions for TDs will be 1, (the gimmick stops being a gimmick if we use it to much so 3 is pretty doubtful) but Fitzy is a pretty mobile athlete and this season should be fun watching Gsiley use a pretty rediculous amount of threats now that VY is in the fold with a couple of dynamic talents like Spiller and the new speedy WR.

 

This sounds about right

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Remember Fitzy actually is near the top in rushing yards for QB in 2010 he was #2 in yards per carry for a QB.

 

I would love to see VY, Fitz and Brad Smith on the field at the same time with FJ and CJ and Chandler.

 

Put Smith and VY in motion, Then watch the defense freak out and just run a normal TE seam route to Chandler.

 

I actually doubt this happens but it would be awesome to see.

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I think youre absolutely right. The thing is, if we know this particular gimmick will be used, so do all the opponents on our schedule. Everyone will be expecting it. Just amounts to more predictable playcalling from Chan Gailey.

But why would this predictability be a bad thing? My sense is that one of the things I feel better about our Bills now than I have since the glory days of the past with the K-Gun is that for once we actually seem to have the potential of having a relatively small number of sets, which in fact offers multiple (though still not a huge # of plays)options.

 

There appear to me to be several problems confronting Gailey:

 

1. One of the strengths of the K-Gun was that you basically had a relatively standard set of players but they were capable of performing at an extraordinary level doing many things. No one knew whether the Kelly/Thomas/Reed crew was going to be smashmouth or deep threat because they could do either incredibly well. The OL was always solid and the add-ons like Lofton or even Metzalaars did their one thing extraordinarily well and if the D overemphasized stopping Thurman or Reed this left an add-on one on one to do his thang. The '12 Bills squad has soe talented guys but does not necessarily offer the diversity of talent at all aspects of the game the K-Gun crew offered. If Smith is in they might pass but probably will not. If VY is in then focus on him and pressure him because it is doubtful he is going to routinely make the right decision to get the ball to someone else. Will our personnel selection pretty clearly tip off what we are likely to do?

 

2. Is the depth there? The K-Gun crew was extraoerdinary in part because even though there was no way to replace and HOF caliber talent like Thurman consistently, I had no problem with going with Plan B Kenneth Davis not only to give Thurman a chance to recover after a long run, but if TT went out for 3 games or so I had no problem counting on Davis. Likewise, plugging in Beebe for Lofton on a short-term basis and most wild even counting on Reich for three games or less. As exciting as our individual talents are, I do not think we will see the depth assembled which allowed the Bills to get to 4 SBs in a row ever again.

 

3. Well someone step up or will this actually become a TEAM? The thing which really set the K-Gun Bills apart in my mind was actually the fact that there was no one leader. The simple fact is that in real life no one person can do it all on their own. We like to pretend being simple minded folk that Peyton Manning is Indy or Tom Brady is NE, but actual fact is that football is really a great TEAM game because no single player is even on the field for the majority of plays. Even if a Brady is necessary he is simply way far away from sufficient (and even at that a Brady can make an unforced error in delivering a safety which was the margin of victory to his opponents in the last SB.

 

The real challenge for Chan is whether he can pull off the same trick that Marv led the Bills to (with the necessary role of Polian, Butler, Kelly, etc) in making this team a TEAM.

 

I want my Bills to be pretty predictable in what they MIGHT do (be it sometimes using Fitzy as a receiver, playing smashmouth behind Fred Jackson, or going vertical to a difficult even for a Revis to cover Stevie Johnson or getting the ball in space to Spiller). The important thing is not whether the opponents can expect the Bills to run a particular play but for us to prove we can run anyone of a dozen plays at any time but the scheme we are set up in or the personnel we have selected does not tip off the opponents on what to expect that specific play.

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My GUESS is that Gailey will dial up 2 TD attempts to Fitzy early this year. One will come from Smith lined up in the Wildcat and the other will be from Vince Young who surprisingly will be on the field at the same time as Fitzy.

 

Um, no. When you look next to Fitz's name in the roster, it doesn't say "WR" for good reason.

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Sorry, I don't see it, or understand the point. Of course they are going to cover Ryan. The only time I see them throwing to him is when the coverage is blown. Any DB or LB should be able to cover him one on one, no problem. They don't neeed to somehow push our opponents to gameplan actually covering him.

 

Yes, I can see RF having a reception this year, but that's likely a fluke play and/or blown covereage, not the result of some master plan.

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