Casey D Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 The Bills are now a whopping 9 point favorite over Pittsburgh. Similarly, Denver is a 9 point favorite over Indy--which indicates those in the know believe Indy will be resting its players, notwithstanding published reports to the contrary. Rams opened as a 2 point fav over Jets, but the line moved quickly to make the Jets three point favorites at this time... CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 The Bills are now a whopping 9 point favorite over Pittsburgh. Similarly, Denver is a 9 point favorite over Indy--which indicates those in the know believe Indy will be resting its players, notwithstanding published reports to the contrary. Rams opened as a 2 point fav over Jets, but the line moved quickly to make the Jets three point favorites at this time... CD 181996[/snapback] Thanks for the info...my morning n'paper had several games as "no line", including Bills-Pit and of course Stl - NYJ. They had Den at 9 1/2 favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 The difference between the Colts and Steelers is that the Colts don't have many injured starters that they'd want to rest, whereas the Steelers do. The Colts will also be playing the following weekend so keeping up momentum is more important than for the Steelers, who have a bye week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 The difference between the Colts and Steelers is that the Colts don't have many injured starters that they'd want to rest, whereas the Steelers do. The Colts will also be playing the following weekend so keeping up momentum is more important than for the Steelers, who have a bye week. 182061[/snapback] Plus they have to work on their D...I don't know how the p-o pairings will shake out, but giving up 31 to SD was not so spiffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Plus they have to work on their D...I don't know how the p-o pairings will shake out, but giving up 31 to SD was not so spiffy. SD can score points. The Broncos aren't as good and Plummer turns the ball over with regularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Denver -9 is shocking... guess they remember what happened in week 17 last year. Personally, I've never played any games the last week of the regular season, no telling what'll happen or who'll show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 I've been reloading my book all day waiting for them to post the Rams-Jets line... if the Rams open as favorites, I have to put money on the Jets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 I've been reloading my book all day waiting for them to post the Rams-Jets line... if the Rams open as favorites, I have to put money on the Jets... 182235[/snapback] Very doubtful Ozy. I'm guessing Jets -4 or 5. AFC is 41-19 against the NFC, and the Rams have been blown out in all three interconference games thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdsmith Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Where are you getting these lines? In general 3 point favorite wins 60%, 6 point favorite wins 70%, 9 point favorite wins almost 80% etc.... The Jets have a 40% chance of losing, the Broncos have a 20% chance of losing. For the Bills this is an either or so we add those = 60% The Bills favored by 9 have an 80% chance of winning outright. since we need a Bills win and a Jets or Denver loss 80% X 60% = 48% chance of playoff birth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Denver -9 is shocking... guess they remember what happened in week 17 last year. Personally, I've never played any games the last week of the regular season, no telling what'll happen or who'll show up. 182225[/snapback] Take the 1st half bet. Something like Colts plus 5. You have the benefit of knowing they're starting the game, and don't have to worry about the finish. Made some quick money on Philly +1 in last night's first quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erynthered Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 In general 3 point favorite wins 60%, 6 point favorite wins 70%, 9 point favorite wins almost 80% etc.... 182724[/snapback] I cant believe thats covering the spread too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Take the 1st half bet. Something like Colts plus 5. You have the benefit of knowing they're starting the game, and don't have to worry about the finish. Made some quick money on Philly +1 in last night's first quarter. 182788[/snapback] I've never bet a half or a quarter before. You've got someone that will take those kind of bets??? Super Bowl, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted December 28, 2004 Author Share Posted December 28, 2004 Where are you getting these lines? In general 3 point favorite wins 60%, 6 point favorite wins 70%, 9 point favorite wins almost 80% etc.... The Jets have a 40% chance of losing, the Broncos have a 20% chance of losing. For the Bills this is an either or so we add those = 60% The Bills favored by 9 have an 80% chance of winning outright. since we need a Bills win and a Jets or Denver loss 80% X 60% = 48% chance of playoff birth 182724[/snapback] The lines are from Las Vegas and/or off-shore. But your math is wrong. Assuming the accuracy of your winning % claim, the Jets have 3/5 of winning, and Denver 4/5. To find the chances of both winning, you multiply 3/5 by 4/5, which yields a 12/25 chance of both teams winning, with a 13/25 chance of one or both teams losing. If you say the Bills have an 80% chance to win, 4/5, multiply that times 13/25, and you get 52/125, or about 41.6%. If you are correct on the straight-up probabilities on these point spreads, then 41.6% would be the probability the Bills will be in the playoffs...CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdsmith Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 The lines are from Las Vegas and/or off-shore. But your math is wrong. Assuming the accuracy of your winning % claim, the Jets have 3/5 of winning, and Denver 4/5. To find the chances of both winning, you multiply 3/5 by 4/5, which yields a 12/25 chance of both teams winning, with a 13/25 chance of one or both teams losing. If you say the Bills have an 80% chance to win, 4/5, multiply that times 13/25, and you get 52/125, or about 41.6%. If you are correct on the straight-up probabilities on these point spreads, then 41.6% would be the probability the Bills will be in the playoffs...CD 182819[/snapback] You're right. Jets and Broncos game are independant events, not two possible outcomes of the same even. I am reaching back over a decade to high school math here. I came up with the percentages of outright wins vs the spread, by applying algebra to 3 team teases a few years back. I might be off a little but 3pts = 10% seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 I've never bet a half or a quarter before. You've got someone that will take those kind of bets??? Super Bowl, maybe. 182802[/snapback] I use an online gaming company of sorts. They're a bit slower than most in terms of getting their lines up, etc., but they're very reliable and always pay out when I go over $500 in winnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 I use an online gaming company of sorts. They're a bit slower than most in terms of getting their lines up, etc., but they're very reliable and always pay out when I go over $500 in winnings. 182888[/snapback] That's cool. I'm old-fashioned, I pickup the phone & call Sal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 That's cool. I'm old-fashioned, I pickup the phone & call Sal. 182936[/snapback] You know what I hated about that? I'd call Sal, and he'd run down the spreads of every freaking game, with the ova/undas, and I'm madly scribbling sh-- down, and Sal is giving me the spreads quickly because his phones are ringing with other people, and...and...and... Online is so much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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