jdsmith

Kirby Puckett was in the OJ, Rae Carrth, Category http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/.../11/si_puckett/

Does Chris Mortensen say anything about the Bills in his chat?

You're right. Jets and Broncos game are independant events, not two possible outcomes of the same even. I am reaching back over a decade to high school math here. I came up with the percentages of outright wins vs the spread, by applying algebra to 3 team teases a few years back. I might be off a little but 3pts = 10% seems about right.

Where are you getting these lines? In general 3 point favorite wins 60%, 6 point favorite wins 70%, 9 point favorite wins almost 80% etc.... The Jets have a 40% chance of losing, the Broncos have a 20% chance of losing. For the Bills this is an either or so we add those = 60% The Bills favored by 9 have an 80% chance of winning outright. since we need a Bills win and a Jets or Denver loss 80% X 60% = 48% chance of playoff birth

The Bills hit the 30-point mark for the sixth straight game. Their 228 points over the last six games are just 15 fewer than they scored in all 16 last year. The Bills got four turnovers overall, giving them 26 in six games, the most in a six-game span by any NFL team since 1991. The Bills are 9-1 with McGahee as the starter, 0-5 in the games he didn't start. He has rushed for 100 yards in seven games. The Bills won four straight road games in a single season for the first time since before the AFL-NFL merger. The AFC is 32-12 against the NFC this season...... The AFC is 32-12 against the NFC this season.

As of now Dallas gets the 23rd pick overall form us. If we get in, it will get even worse.