Coach Tuesday Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-5-dvoa-ratings Basically, FO has created a statistical model to rank teams, based on a variety of factors I'm not smart enough to understand. I think the basic concept is a comparison of the team's performance to the mean, in a variety of circumstances. I've never seen a Bills team ranked this highly on FO's model after Week 5 (note that they haven't been charting games for more than about 5-6 years). Teams ranked as highly as the Bills this far into the season tend to continue their success over the course of the season, so this is definitely a good sign. Also, note that our offense is ranked number 2 overall, and our defense and STs are ranked in the middle of the pack, not 30th as many posters here contend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnychemo Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 The 30th ranking is in yards allowed per game, so in that one area, yes, they are 30th. I tend to think you can't judge the D on such a narrow basis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACor58 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Whatever dude. They only rating that matters ins ESPN's all new Total QBR. It proves once and for all that Tim Tebow is better than Aaron Rodgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Whatever dude. They only rating that matters ins ESPN's all new Total QBR. It proves once and for all that Tim Tebow is better than Aaron Rodgers. I love how much over reaction there is to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Whatever dude. They only rating that matters ins ESPN's all new Total QBR. It proves once and for all that Tim Tebow is better than Aaron Rodgers. FWIW, Football Outsiders explains that: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2011/why-espns-total-qbr-favored-tebow-over-rodgers Apparently it has a bit to do with the fact that QBR discounts RAC. Personally, I don't think it should - a QB should be rewarded for hitting a guy in stride and on his way to extra yardage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton Fitzsimmons Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Whatever dude. They only rating that matters ins ESPN's all new Total QBR. It proves once and for all that Tim Tebow is better than Aaron Rodgers. The guy from Football Outsiders was on with Schopp and Bulldog yesterday talking about ESPN's QBR. He said he has friends that work there and he emailed them telling them that when you get an odd result in your system such as Tebow>Rodgers they really need to come out and explain the parameters of their formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 (edited) Clearly, Football Outsiders is behind the times if they haven't factored the Two Bills Drive Theory of Sustainable Winning into their formula. Edited October 12, 2011 by SageAgainstTheMachine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket - according to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable. Then, there's the guy who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. Statistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases. - Theodor Billroth Only one statistic matters... 18 and 1 baby!!!!! GO BILLSSS!!!! "I expect to win every game." - Chan Gailey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Only one statistic matters... Not if you're trying to predict things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Fischer Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 They give the Bills a 16.1% chance of making the Super Bowl. Hell, I would have taken a 1% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Not if you're trying to predict things... Show me the stats that predict the Bills would be 4-1 right now. There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up. - Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 (edited) Show me the stats that predict the Bills would be 4-1 right now. There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up. - Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy I just did. If you'd have read their DVOA article after the Bengals loss, you would've had reason to predict that they would beat the Eagles... I'll add that your Luddite-like hatred of statistics is at odds with your man-whorship of Mike Leach... this is a man who studies trends and tendencies more than anyone: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/04/magazine/04coach.html?ei=5090&en=c9f46201dc95f91d&ex=1291352400&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all&adxnnlx=1165295348-QhCHlsh+0Ca3wU8ESozzZA Edited October 12, 2011 by Coach Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 There are 3 kinds of lies! Lies, damned lies, and statistics! The only numbers that matter are wins & losses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 There are 3 kinds of lies! Lies, damned lies, and statistics! The only numbers that matter are wins & losses... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite (Don't hate something just because you don't understand it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 (edited) I just did. If you'd have read their DVOA article after the Bengals loss, you would've had reason to predict that they would beat the Eagles... Had you shown me stats from the Bengals game that predicted Juqua Parker would bite on a long-count with less than 90 seconds and no time-outs, I'd recant. I do concede, however, that, statistically , 100% of the time that the offense has possession at the end of a game while leading by a touchdown, they win. BTW, good article about Leach. I've cited it at least 10 times on TSW. You should read it. GO BILLSSS!!!! 18 and 1 baby!!!!! . Edited October 12, 2011 by The Senator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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