One approach to judging the BIlls

[Hplarrm]

One of the things which has always struck me about SB winning teams is their depth. Sometimes they simply have a wealth of talented players on the roster at a particular position from the start of the season (One Pittsburgh team went at least three and I think four deep in players who eventually proved to be capable RB starters). Sometimes it is rookies expected to be ST guys at best who step up usually do to injuries and prove to be great plan Bs (or plan Ds like the former UB star who ended up leading the Packers to an SB win.

 

Now that the season is beginning (finally) my thoughts are turning to reviewing the Bills as playing units and judging whether they have not simply real plan A stars (at least potential Pro Bowl recognees). Plan As that appear adequate at best, and on as to what the depth is (or maybe as FA can make a big difference even if the players signed do not make a splash.

 

This is my current sense and I am curious how others react analyzing using this format:

 

QB- Might as well start at this position which I think gets far too much credit and far too much blame for winning the big one.

 

Plan A- Adequate (in fact with the signing of Smith more than adequate)

 

 

 

No one mistakes Fitzy for a proven NFL starting quality quarterback (even after he did demonstrate some promise with how he ended the year after the Edwards false start {which I do not blame Gailey for as Edwards fooled people like Bill Walsh who has forgotten more about good QB evaluation than many of the legends in their own minds on TSW}. Edwards actually showed some good stuff in his initial play with good accuracy, some gutsiness facing the rush and being a bit more fleet of foot than I anticipated at draft time. However, he simply proved to be injury prone (he was dead to us after his concussion) and to add onto this, Jauron continued in Noffense ways and they ruined whatever they had. It was fairly predictable where things would end up with Edwards as starter last year, but given the Bills failings, Edwards contract, initial success, etc I have no problem with Gailey giving him a shot. I actually felt good about how quickly Gailey jumped ship and cut him (though my guess is this likely did not go over well with Mr. Ralph whose checkbook was on the hook for another Bills QB adventure as they have made mistake after mistake in a fruitless and somewhat stupid search for the new Jim Kelly. I like the Gailey proven chops of making playoff achieving productive O teams with previously failed but football smart QBs taking the snaps. He squeezed great real world production out of previously failed QBs like Fiedler, Kordell and Bulger. I think he can do this with a marginal talent like Fitzy. He will not lead this team to the SB, but we gotta crawl before walk and a run to the playoffs with him leading the way is possible.

 

Yet, it is merely possible (and not even likely this year with the bad talent on this squad overall). However, I like Tyler Thigpen as Plan B. There is not way he can be thinking he deserves to be #1 (we routinely in our foolish search for a savior seem to declare someone like JP as our franchise guy when even he admitted he did not earn it or Mr. Ralph foolishly guaranteed RJ stater money without making him prove he was not injury prone. I like Thigpen as a Plan B and hope he even surprises me and steps over Fitzy in camp.

 

Brown and Harris are both disaster QBs but I feel fine about their incredibly unlikely upside at the disaster position. I really like the signing of Brad Smith as our wildcat QB.

 

RB Plan A- Very good

 

Jackson is a very impressive RB in any regard and extremely impressive for a Coe College talent. His age while a question for a player at the high turnover RB position, but in this case his late blooming status does make him older than one would normally like for a go to RB, but also it is due to the relatively low mileage on his body that has not taken years of NFL hits by the age of 30. He has demonstrated productivity not only as a rusher but as a pass catcher and blitz pick-up guy for Fitzy (an important thing with is OL).

 

Plan B- Hopeful-

 

I think the fact folks that are disappointed at Spiller's first year showing says more about the observer than it does about Spiller. He is not a 3 down RB from what I see, but showed both how good he is as an open field runner on ST and also showed some receiving ability. My sense is that this one is on Gailey in that if he finds a way to use Spiller as a WR in a spread offense he would create match-up problems right away for an opponent

 

Plan C- Hopeful-

 

An essential thing for this Bills team given Jackson's age and Spiller's size and usual rookie difficulties he showed last year with blitz pick-up. White however looks like a good choice as the scouting reports on him seem to indicate he may well be an instant contributor on ST and that he is a good route runner in the passing game.

 

Overall, if Jax goes down it will take some work by Gailey to utilize his two back-up well in his stead if they are forced to do this, but I like Gailey's past O success and the diverse talents of his plan B and C.

 

Should a top 10 pick in the draft be more than a back-up in year two? Yep, but my sense of football says the answer for this is lets rum an O that utilizes his demonstrated open field running and rece1vimg skills in a spread O.

 

FB- Whatever. Mot a critical part of the offensive plans. Personally. I would go more toward an H-Back approach but as FBs go McIntyre has shown a lot.

 

OL- Plan A- Not even adequate.

 

The current team is at least a player and a half away from mere adequacy in talent (and then add on this the time needed even if adequate talent is obtained for this unit to develop chemistry

 

Specifically:

 

LT- Demetrius Bell appears to be the likely starter and has shown some athleticism in practice and even some reasonable results in actual play. He seems to have some talent (which has been a nice surprise coming quickly from a 7th round pick. However, having a plan B in place at LY is likely essential and oft-injured as a rookie Ed Wang seems unlikely to be a solid plan B/

 

G- LeVitre and Wood were solid enough at the G positions last year, but this year it seems likely Wood goes to C. This opens up a G slot for the youngster Urbik who appeared serviceable at best in a couple of starts last year. If Wood moves to C the versatile vet Hamgartner is a reasonable plan B for both slots. A replacement or supplement for Urbik seems to be the likely need.

 

C- Wood seems destined to be the anchor of the OL for years we have yearned for since the days of Kent Hull. His recovery from a vicious knee injury year before last was darn impressive. We will need to see a full 16 from him though for him to be a proven leader. Hamgartmer is a reasonable back-up.

 

RY- we need a player here and I hope the Clabo hunt in FA works out. My player and a half count comes from is not only needing an RY but a solid back-up for multiple OL positions preferably a tackle.

 

WR- More than adequate (though this is only true if Evans actually produces more like a real #1 and/or Stevie Johnson keeps developing at the same pace. Gailey has publicly stated he expects big things from Parrish and he has produced a few highlight film events that show why it is true that he feels that way. Has actually produced results a couple of seasons which show he is among the top punt returners in the league exceeded clearly and consistently only by Devin Hester WHEN HE PLAYS. The problem is that he cannot be counted upon to always be relatively injury free/ I have no problem with him as a player though because part of the reason he gets hurt is that he shows no fear of mixing it up. The acquisition of Brad Smith however means that he actually might be in the mix now as plan B with Smith as plan A in a slash role. Ar any rate, the Bills are far more potent at WR now. Add to this several players such as Nelson and Easley who though unlikely to ever breakout have shown episodes where they can do it from time to time and it looks fun. An area which MIGHT have a good plan F.

 

TE- I simply do not understand what we are doing with this slot given the limited talent we have with Chandler and Martin being the best we got. We have a team built in terms of talent with the TE being a player who is an ST guy and the whose primary use is to sit on the bench so we can go 3 wide. Plab A is not to use them in the O.

 

CBs- The potential talent on this roster at CB gives us not only legit plan A, but makes plan A with a nickel package doable IF everybody is healthy. The good news with Florence's performance last year, his resigning and also the drafting of Martin that we are set for reasonable plan Bs as well if the unfortunate but apparently likely injury to either McGee or McKelvin occurs. I like our plan Bs here and we are likely gonna use e.

 

Sa- This is an area where I like the guys we got as players, but outside of an outstanding rookie year for Byrd, none of these players is someone an opposing OC is worried about game planning around. This group ironically may be the one most helped by our acquisition of Dareus to now team with Pro Bowl quality Williams. This group has shown the ability at times to be a force at run stopping and pick up the trash well with INTs. if we get consistent pressure from the DL plan A of Byrd with either Wilson, Scott (who is good but needs to step up to be a true producer, or interesting rookie Searcy give legit hope

 

DL- Perhaps the most intriguing possibility for complete recalibration of our poor performing D. Kyle Williams was sometimes unblockable with triple teams last year. The addition of Dareus who on paper should demand a double team makes even a 3-4 DL look very scary for an opposing OC. The plan Bs give the Bills possibilities (a long way from reality but still possible) that a breakout performance is at least possible by Troop, Johnson, Carrington, or Edwards. I am not so impressed by any of these individuals that I expect one of them to become the next Kyle Williams (a 5th round pick who incredibly becomes a legit starter as a rookie and merited his Pro Bowl nod last year) but if Dareus plays as advertised and if Williams continues to produce as he has the other DL player will have a lot of 1 on 1s to work with. Troop is interesting as he has the demographics to make the Bills going 4 DEs not simply a possibility but a likelihood given the pathetic crew we have at LB.

 

LB- Ahh yes, oh that. A crew that was pathetic got even worse with the loss of Pos (who in my view was not worth the contract which the market provided him). When your best hope for a plan A is the sudden re-emergence of a legit Pro Bowler Merrimen who has not produced due to injury for three years it is bleak. Not only is a Merriman return to quality play at best possible but unlikely we really do not even have a legit plan B. When the best chance you got at LB is that Maybin turns out to be even merely a steady player when the most likely outcome is he proves to be bust speaks volumes. We need an FA big time and there is no obvious candidate (s) on the market.

 

Oh well

 

ST- I like Lindell's production. He did just about everything we asked him to do last year (even 2 for 5 over 50 yards and his directional kicking got as much as you are going to get out of our ST. Moorman has been a stud for years bit finally had a lackluster year last year. He could well come back though but will need to do so or we need to find some competition for him.

 

Overall, there is little reason to expect even a .500 year from this talent. However, the impressive thing which Nix has done IMHO is to acquire a team which the LB unit aside does at least have the POSSIBILITY of individual players stepping up to breakout. On D, I really see enough talent on the DL that I expect a breakout year from one of several legit POSSIBILITIES for a third DL stud. Amongst the DBs, I see the legit POSSIBILITY that given some depth at CB and from several legit choices to breakout at safety this can be formidable.

 

The one problem is that even mere adequacy from the LBs seems unlikely.

 

The O is very much helped by Gailey's track record. Add to this mix legit possibilities (though not realities yet) for outstanding WR play (both Evans and Johnson in terms of actual past performances MIGHT legitimately prove Pro Bowl worthy and the addition of Brad Smith adds great options and legit possibilities for 3 wide sets and also for wildcat formations' The pedestrian QB pool has doubled in possibilities with the acquisition of Thigpen and the proven slash abilities of Smith. The Fitzy issue has been solved in my book not by the unlikely possibility he will prove to be a stud but by the demonstrated success Gailey has had with QBs of limited skill.

 

I think a .500 record is likely the best we can do. However, the good thing for this Bills fan is that at this point where every team is undefeated their are legitimate possibilities for this team to achieve greatness. They probably won't but you gotta dream. We now live in a world of possibilities rather than mere fantasy.

 

Thanks Misters Nix and Gailey!

[tecmobowlbills]

We are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, plain and simple. And somehow we will screw that up.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

We are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, plain and simple. And somehow we will screw that up.

 

You know it's gonna happen. They'll have like two wins going into the last week of the season, in the catbird seat for Luck and they'll pull off a win in the last game to slip them down a spot, and boom no Luck. And all the geniuses here will spew how "it's better to win a game than have draft position."

[JohnC]

I think a .500 record is likely the best we can do. However, the good thing for this Bills fan is that at this point where every team is undefeated their are legitimate possibilities for this team to achieve greatness. They probably won't but you gotta dream. We now live in a world of possibilities rather than mere fantasy.

 

Thanks Misters Nix and Gailey!

 

The Vegas odds-makers who have no sentimental attachment to any team aren't seduced by fanciful hopes. Rebuilding is a long and arduous process. It's not for the impatient and faint-hearted.

 

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_futures_odds.shtml

[Hplarrm]

We are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, plain and simple. And somehow we will screw that up.

Doubtful on several counts

 

1. It likely takes a #1 to get Luck and when was the last time any #1 choice revived a team on a timeline which maintained the job of the GM. Nix needs to show progress on a timeline which may well get him bounced if we finish 2-14 this year. Add to that his team also going 2-14 in 2012 IF Luck were to bring the same level of improvement to the Bills W/L that Peyton Manning brought to Indy/

 

2. Saying a strategy of getting the 1st pick is actually far more reasonable than building a strategy to specifically get Luck or any stud QB. Any college player is one hit away from being a mid 1st round choice rather than being #1. Luck is not a strategy (literally and figuratively).

 

3. My key point (at huge length as I used the writing to think through Bills possibilities) is that though it is unlikely we will do even middling well, a detailed review does indicate that it is possible . The main thing we need is the unlikely possibility that Merrimen recovers AND we find another solid LB. I think it is actually quite likely our offense is productive.

 

We will see.

[KOKBILLS]

You know it's gonna happen. They'll have like two wins going into the last week of the season, in the catbird seat for Luck and they'll pull off a win in the last game to slip them down a spot, and boom no Luck. And all the geniuses here will spew how "it's better to win a game than have draft position."

 

Well the geniuses can say what they want if that happens because I'll never hear it...I've already scouted the local bridges...I know one that is plenty high enough...I'll be long gone...

[BuffaloBaumer]

These not so far off sentiments really have to be delusional at best. This team is the only one around that seems to peak at 7-9 each year only to get worse after more draft and FA years. Not far off? Really? Look at the division the Bills are in....you are most likely looking at 5 out of 6 losses right off the bat. They have not beaten the Patriots in 1,000 tries and the Patriots just stacked themselves even more yesterday. Until someone in that organization builds an elite line, gets an actual NFL pass rush and lands a playoff QB, the Bills will be staring up at a 10 win season forever. Really, ask yourself when the last time you entered the season thinking they would make the playoffs. Any time they have been close, you look back at the wins and they were always against #$it-bag teams.

 

Nobody would be on this board if they did not love the Bills but come on, this team is void of any star talent.....

[Hplarrm]

These not so far off sentiments really have to be delusional at best. This team is the only one around that seems to peak at 7-9 each year only to get worse after more draft and FA years. Not far off? Really? Look at the division the Bills are in....you are most likely looking at 5 out of 6 losses right off the bat. They have not beaten the Patriots in 1,000 tries and the Patriots just stacked themselves even more yesterday. Until someone in that organization builds an elite line, gets an actual NFL pass rush and lands a playoff QB, the Bills will be staring up at a 10 win season forever. Really, ask yourself when the last time you entered the season thinking they would make the playoffs. Any time they have been close, you look back at the wins and they were always against #$it-bag teams.

 

Nobody would be on this board if they did not love the Bills but come on, this team is void of any star talent.....

You are right I am a Bills fan but what that basically has to mean for the past decade is that delusion is what its all about kimosabe.

 

Beginning with Nr. Ralph's foolish football judgment which only he could make with the handshake deal that Jimbo would be rewarded in his next contract, the Bills have made a series of ultimately fatal judgments in our Moby Dick like quest for a franchise QB.

 

Be it overeaching to draft Todd Collins, rushing him to start while he obviously had happy feet, the Hobert escapade, making stupid contractual obligations with BOTH Flutie and RJ, etc etc etc delusion is all we got.

[Dorkington]

We said that after going 7-9, then we went 6-10.

 

We said that after going 6-10, then we went 4-12.

 

We said that after going 4-12, then we went...

[tecmobowlbills]

This is the first year in quite some time that I feel we have no shot. I thought last year we would be respectable and with some luck be in the hunt. This season, not a chance. As my one buddy put it, and hes a die hard, I check my fantasy teams more than I check on the Bills scores now. Sad state the Bills are in.

[Mr. WEO]

We are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, plain and simple. And somehow we will screw that up.

Cincy is the winner already. They may not win a game.

[The Big Cat]

OMFG, enough with the Andrew Luck crap.

[Mr. WEO]

Let's get back to the "defenses will have to gameplan for 5 wildcat plays a game against us!" crap.

[xsoldier54]

You know it's gonna happen. They'll have like two wins going into the last week of the season, in the catbird seat for Luck and they'll pull off a win in the last game to slip them down a spot, and boom no Luck. And all the geniuses here will spew how "it's better to win a game than have draft position."

I would be willing to bet my entire year's salary that this team will win more than two games this year. Forget Luck. Nobody knows what kind of pro he will be. Plenty of great college QB's have busted in the NFL. We need to focus on the players that we have, not some "potential superstar" who has not played a down of NFL football. I could care less about Luck, but I am interested in how Fitzpatrick, Dareus, Jackson, Johnson et all perform this year. Luck might not even make it through his senior season without getting injured.

[Hplarrm]

Let's get back to the "defenses will have to gameplan for 5 wildcat plays a game against us!" crap.

Huh? I am not sure even what you mean by this. Do you think Smith is a good get or not. His pick-up seems to be to be more about what we think we can accomplish with him rather the primary benefit being forcing opponents to game plan for him. He is in a real manner a true slash player who has demonstrated the ability to not only return the ball, but run the ball, throw the pass, and even tackled on ST.

 

His diverse play should liberate Gailey to plan in many ways. This will create the side effect not simply of the opposing DC gameplanning for him but the more important impact of allowing us to do more things. It also strikes me as as a far more significant impact that if Parrish goes down as the #3 WR (which unfortunately has happened too often) we have a back-up plan in place.

 

I think the Smith signing is a very good thing. Simplifying the preparation we must do for the Jets twice a year is a bigger benefit than making preparaation for us more difficult.

[Perk71]

The Vegas odds-makers who have no sentimental attachment to any team aren't seduced by fanciful hopes. Rebuilding is a long and arduous process. It's not for the impatient and faint-hearted.

 

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_futures_odds.shtml

 

I put my 50 down this week lol

[Sisyphean Bills]

Doubtful on several counts

 

1. It likely takes a #1 to get Luck and when was the last time any #1 choice revived a team on a timeline which maintained the job of the GM. Nix needs to show progress on a timeline which may well get him bounced if we finish 2-14 this year. Add to that his team also going 2-14 in 2012 IF Luck were to bring the same level of improvement to the Bills W/L that Peyton Manning brought to Indy/

 

2. Saying a strategy of getting the 1st pick is actually far more reasonable than building a strategy to specifically get Luck or any stud QB. Any college player is one hit away from being a mid 1st round choice rather than being #1. Luck is not a strategy (literally and figuratively).

 

3. My key point (at huge length as I used the writing to think through Bills possibilities) is that though it is unlikely we will do even middling well, a detailed review does indicate that it is possible . The main thing we need is the unlikely possibility that Merrimen recovers AND we find another solid LB. I think it is actually quite likely our offense is productive.

 

We will see.

If the Bills are drafting #1 overall, I for one don't care who the GM is that drafts Luck.