tonyjustbcuz Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Tony's one and only 1st round Mock draft with bonus first 2 picks in 2nd round! This is my updated and greatly changed mock that I posted a couple of months ago. I have done constant analysis, looking extensively at all the NFL Draft publications that are out there, looking at a lot of video of the draftees on various sites including FFTOOLBOX.COM which is a super resource. As I have progressed as a draft guru wannabe (lol) I have learned before you worry about other mock drafts, analyzing all the talent in the draft pool, all the red flags etc...the first thing that I did was figure out the needs of each team. It also requires you to analyze how much greater a positional need may be compared to the same team's 2nd need. Sometimes a team's greatest need is also similar in need to their second need. ie: The Bills greatest need is to stop the run! The Bills have a lot of other needs, but no need is greater than stopping the run, including QB. I'd like a QB of course, but barring a major difference in the best player available when it's our turn at the podium..I'd have to say that stopping the run should take precedence over all else. Unfortunately, sometimes your player isn't there when it's your turn, and I strongly believe that will be the case at #3. I could go on for hours about drafting, as it's much more than just a hobby for me, it's a way of life, and it's a passion. I hope the passion the Buffalo Bills display in this 2011 NFL Draft will reflect the same spirit I have, and bring the team good fortune in both the immediate and long term future! Now here is the long awaited 1st round draft..... 1st round pick# Team Player Position 1 Carolina Marcell Dareus DT 2 Denver Cam Newton QB 3 Buffalo Von Miller OLB 4 Cincy A.J. Green WR 5 Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB 6 Cleveland Nick Fairley DT 7 San Fran. Patrick Peterson CB 8 Tennesee Robert Quinn DE 9 Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE 10 Washington Jake Locker QB 11 Houston Prince Amukamara CB 12 Minnesota Ryan Mallett QB 13 Detroit Akeem Ayers LB 14 ST.Louis Julio Jones WR 15 Miami Mark Ingram RB 16 Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE 17 New England Cameron Jordan DE 18 San Diego Aldon Smith DE 19 NY Giants Mike Pouncey C 20 Tampa Bay JJ Watt DE 21 K.City Gabe Carimi OT 22 Indy Anthony Castonzo OT 23 Philad. Brandon Harris CB 24 New Orleans Adrian Clayborn DE 25 Seattle Tyron Smith OT 26 Baltimore Torrey Smith WR 27 Atlanta Titus Young WR 28 New England Justin Houston OLB 29 Chicago Nate Solder OT 30 NY Jets Bruce Carter OLB 31 Pittsburgh Marcus Cannon OT 32 Green Bay Corey Liuget DT Round #2 (1st 2 picks for now..) 33 New England Cameron Heyward DE 34 Buffalo Colin Kaepernick QB So that's it for now..the first 34 picks...more will be coming...complete comments ahead as well. This mock is fluid and always evolving. No mock is perfect, and actually no NFL Draft is perfect by a long shot ie: Mike Williams, Ryan Leaf, Aaron Maybin, and many other busts! I will get some picks right, and I will get some picks wrong! Some players will never pan out and others may be stars of tomorrow! Informed with knowledge you just want to enhance your ability to hopefully pick'em better than the next team does! I've done my homework, there are several reaches..especially at QB! I'm aware of this..as a run on a positon makes teams that have a player in mind jump the gun to ensure they get their guy! I think that will be the case with Jake Locker, and Ryan Mallett. Defensive ends were flying off the board which is not surprising to me! There was good value in WR's and RB's as the skill positons were slow to come off the board. Obviously I feel that Marcell Dareus is the best choice in the draft and wished the Bills could've selected him! (you never know..) I think Denver quietly wants Cam Newton more than Carolina does, but I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina did select Cam Newton either. Remember one deviation from the anticpated selection a team makes can and will effect the slotting and selections across the board! This was fun, this was difficult to get to a point where I feel I am close to having a very good to excellent mock! I would appreciate your feedback if you have a chance as improvement can always be made. Happy Drafting!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 What happens with Tim T. in Denver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbalaya Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Although everyone has the top three as newton, dareus, miller, I agree with you someone will do the unexpected here and one or two of these will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 NO QB'S IN THE FIRST 2 AT LEAST - ALL D THE FIRST 3 PICKS !!! What happens with Tim T. in Denver? He's going to stay in Denver cause there is no CBA so there is no trading of players until the CBA is complete !!! Get with the program !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) Well Tony, I don't think Ayers goes as high as #13…and I love Torrey Smith as a person but I don't think he goes in the first round. Those would be my two biggest disagreements. Edited April 21, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 NO QB'S IN THE FIRST 2 AT LEAST - ALL D THE FIRST 3 PICKS !!! He's going to stay in Denver cause there is no CBA so there is no trading of players until the CBA is complete !!! Get with the program !!! You must have a tick!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 NO QB'S IN THE FIRST 2 AT LEAST - ALL D THE FIRST 3 PICKS !!! He's going to stay in Denver cause there is no CBA so there is no trading of players until the CBA is complete !!! Get with the program !!! Pretty snappy response to a legit question. Um I don't think he was saying Tim would be moved, he's asking if you think they're giving up on Tebow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thud Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Love this mock. D first then QB. Colin is a gamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyjustbcuz Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 What happens with Tim T. in Denver? Your guess is as good as mine...but I guess they can keep him and let'em compete for a job, or they can trade him after the players are back in business and not locked out anymore. It's been widely speculated that John Elway really wants Cam Newton! Love this mock. D first then QB. Colin is a gamer. Thanks! I worked hard on it...I'm not all excited about selecting Von Miller, as a QB or WR is a more flashy pick. But, I guess when he's on his tenth sack of the season I'll feel great about the pick. Your right...Colin is a gamer...and the trainer he is working with also worked with Cam Newton at some point..and the personal trainer that works exclusively with QB's said that Colin Kaepernick is faster, and a better athlete and he just couldn't stop praising just how game ready Kaepernick is and how much better he is than Cam Newton. I hope he's right! I hope we take'em too! The only other two QB's that interest me if we don't is either Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett. Despite their shortcomings or in Malletts case questionable behavior, I think both have very strong arms that could work in Buffalo's conditions. The other knock on Mallett is he is somewhat slow and is purely a pocket passer similar to Drew Blesdoe. If Marcel Dareus slides to us at number 3 though..I would take'em over Von Miller though as stopping the run is in my opinion are biggest flaw as a team! Thanks for your kind words.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyjustbcuz Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Well Tony, I don't think Ayers goes as high as #13…and I love Torrey Smith as a person but I don't think he goes in the first round. Those would be my two biggest disagreements. You may be right...I struggled to select Ayers where I did..but I kept reading from multiple sources about how Detroit really likes him a lot...and that he is a very good fit with his skillset, so I went with it. It's something I'll look a little closer at it and do a little re-evaluation when I get a little time as I prefer to be as on the money as possible in this multiple guessing game called the mock draft. I don't know Torrey Smith the person, but I do know that there is a big variance in the draft order at Wide Receiver. I've seen a lot of draft manuals put Titus Young right up there in the top few picks and the same with Randall Cobb, and then I'll look elsewhere and see them rated as the 8-12th best receivers. So it's confusing as the opinions vary greatly out there, and it's not only based on stats in College as some players project higher due to the intangibles, or rank lower because of injuries they sustained late in their college careers even though the stats were there. Some receivers that performed are undersized and not as tall as you would like. I know that A.J. Green and Julio Jones are better receivers to date, but I've seen Torrey Smith ranked as high as the third receiver on the board. So again, I'll have to look into it and adjust if necessary. Regardless of where my final draft projections take me I do appreciate your opinion as it helps to make me more focused on providing the best mock I can for everyone's entertainment or to line their birdcage with if they disagree on my whole mock..lol Thanks! Although everyone has the top three as newton, dareus, miller, I agree with you someone will do the unexpected here and one or two of these will fall. Thanks...Starting with Mel Kiper..Todd McShay...so on and so on...we get the anticipated order drilled in our heads! That's why I tried to get off that boat and get on my one person raft and hope to stay afloat! Each year that I stay with the popular assumptions I don't fair too well at my Mock! So hopefully this year I will hit the first 5 or at least 3 of 5 ! You never know, it's a crap shoot and that's why I looked strongly at the needs of each team prior to even thinking about the players that I would fill those needs with. Also, there is no guarantee that since the last snap that the players that were at the top of mocks and then slid drastically will be selected according to our mocks. That is why I would not be surprised if Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers ended up being selected in the top 5 picks of the draft or higher! I know Da'Quan Bowers is recovering from an injury and Dareus lifted weights better than Fairley did at the combine/pro day thing, but I'd be happy to have either of those guys on the Bills roster! Thanks for your feedback it's appreciated! You may be right...I struggled to select Ayers where I did..but I kept reading from multiple sources about how Detroit really likes him a lot...and that he is a very good fit with his skillset, so I went with it. It's something I'll look a little closer at it and do a little re-evaluation when I get a little time as I prefer to be as on the money as possible in this multiple guessing game called the mock draft. I don't know Torrey Smith the person, but I do know that there is a big variance in the draft order at Wide Receiver. I've seen a lot of draft manuals put Titus Young right up there in the top few picks and the same with Randall Cobb, and then I'll look elsewhere and see them rated as the 8-12th best receivers. So it's confusing as the opinions vary greatly out there, and it's not only based on stats in College as some players project higher due to the intangibles, or rank lower because of injuries they sustained late in their college careers even though the stats were there. Some receivers that performed are undersized and not as tall as you would like. I know that A.J. Green and Julio Jones are better receivers to date, but I've seen Torrey Smith ranked as high as the third receiver on the board. So again, I'll have to look into it and adjust if necessary. Regardless of where my final draft projections take me I do appreciate your opinion as it helps to make me more focused on providing the best mock I can for everyone's entertainment or to line their birdcage with if they disagree on my whole mock..lol Thanks! Thanks...Starting with Mel Kiper..Todd McShay...so on and so on...we get the anticipated order drilled in our heads! That's why I tried to get off that boat and get on my one person raft and hope to stay afloat! Each year that I stay with the popular assumptions I don't fair too well at my Mock! So hopefully this year I will hit the first 5 or at least 3 of 5 ! You never know, it's a crap shoot and that's why I looked strongly at the needs of each team prior to even thinking about the players that I would fill those needs with. Also, there is no guarantee that since the last snap that the players that were at the top of mocks and then slid drastically will be selected according to our mocks. That is why I would not be surprised if Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers ended up being selected in the top 5 picks of the draft or higher! I know Da'Quan Bowers is recovering from an injury and Dareus lifted weights better than Fairley did at the combine/pro day thing, but I'd be happy to have either of those guys on the Bills roster! Thanks for your feedback it's appreciated! ] I'm back to add something.. It also would not shock me if Carolina did take Newton, and Denver did take Gabbert! I then would grab Marcell Dareus DT and would be tickled red, white, and blue!!!!!! Go Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyjustbcuz Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Although everyone has the top three as newton, dareus, miller, I agree with you someone will do the unexpected here and one or two of these will fall. Just curious as to who you think the top 3 picks will really be? Plus I'd like to extend the life of this topic if possible because the draft is coming fast..so maybe another frew posts will keep my mock alive a little longer..lol Love this mock. D first then QB. Colin is a gamer. I know we need LB's as well..but I think we need to follow a QB in the 3rd with a OT... I really think it would be wise this year to trade down to the 5-10 range for the right compensation. With the potential of Fairley and Da'Quan Bowers sliding some you could pick up a game breaking impact player while adding a extra early 2nd rounder+ picks! What do you think about the prospects of possibly trading down a few spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammie65 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) I can't see Denver going Newton but I can see them taking Peterson. With Orton and Tebow the QB need just isn't there. Ayers shouldn't go that high. JJ Watt will go before #20 (possibly to the Pats at #17, unless they trade up or down somehow). The rest are pretty solid and a good draft (IMO). I "argued" with a buddy about Denver going QB at #2 since he suggested what you have. Orton's numbers were great last year (and Tebow was pretty good the last three games as well) with a great deep ball. The defense (like the Bills) just couldn't keep the other teams from outscoring them most of the year. Denver has to go Defense. Carolina could take Gabbert as well and then where does Cam go? I'd rather Buffalo take Miller at #3 myself. I started off not being pro Miller but after reading more and more stuff about this player, I'd be happy with him (or Peterson, Fairley, Bowers, Dareus) at #3. DaQuan Bowers will be a steal for Dallas if he goes to them just because of the knee thing dropping his stock some. He will make his mark in the NFL IMO. I'd love Kaepernick in the 2nd rd as well. Edited April 21, 2011 by hammie65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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