Nick Fairley

[jumbalaya]

Pardon me if there is a Fairley column, I went back quite a few pages and did not find one. Early on in mock drafts everyone had Fairley gone before we picked 3rd. Now everyone has Dareus as the favorite DT. With a lot of hype going to Newton. I am starting to believe that the Bills are being coy and are hoping that the hubbub around Gabbert, Newton, Peterson, Bowers, Miller, and Dareus mask their desire for Fairley. Good article by Doyel to that effect. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/14812120/suh-wrong-again-disregard-fairley-chatter

 

I would love for us to get Fairley and actually prefer that the Bills had the guy that plays dirty for a change. Let's put Fairley back on top as our favorite draft option. if he is half the player as N Suh he will be great.

Edited March 15, 2011 by jumbalaya

[Bangarang]

Don't see us drafting Fairley. He doesn't fit what we're trying to do and isn't a Nix type of pick. The flavor of the month is starting to fade away.

[Thoner7]

I fell the exact same way. I rarely change my opinion on a player after the season is over, and at the end of alst season Id say 90% had Fairley as far and away better. I still feel that he is the better of the two, and I hope thats who we get. If he is gone, my second option is Dareus, so it is close, but Fairley is better.

[NoSaint]

I fell the exact same way. I rarely change my opinion on a player after the season is over, and at the end of alst season Id say 90% had Fairley as far and away better. I still feel that he is the better of the two, and I hope thats who we get. If he is gone, my second option is Dareus, so it is close, but Fairley is better.

 

to that effect - how much of that 90% was just knee jerk off the title game, with no actual familiarity with his film, lack of a body of work, or personality question marks. they saw three big plays and got real excited.

 

i would say among the people that saw a lot of college ball during the season, and last year the consensus was much more split. i know at times i had to toe the line to even broach the subject of liking dareus, because if i in any way suggested fairley wasnt perfect the discussion would devolve real fast. i had a strong feeling as everything played out they would get to about even, or even dareus SLIGHTLY ahead. fairley just had such a huge bump from the title game, that he was bound to settle back down to the rest of the pack once emotion dipped. i think in a 43 fairley is your man, and 34 dareus is the choice at the top. i dont see either going 1st, and 3 of the next 4 picks are 34 teams, so i wont be surprised if dareus is the first off the board. either could slide out of the top 5 easily though. we will see how visits go and how things start slotting when players come off the board.

 

ive said it quite a few times but i would say that this draft has no clear top 5 but about 15 guys that would fit into that 5-10 range any given year. with so many being so tightly grouped, and no clear picks at the sexy positions of QB, or LT... if a team passes at a guy at 2-3 he could slide to 10 really quickly, and if somebody decides a guy fits their system i think they will be willing to reach a little further then normal as the gap between 2 and 8 is smaller then normal.

 

it wouldnt be jaw dropping to see 2 qbs, and dareus in the top 3 picks and if thats the case you are looking at bowers, fairley, green, peterson -- all sure thing #1 best player in the draft guys at some point this offseason slipping to atleast number 7 assuming they are the next 4 off the board. slide in guys like von miller, quinn and suddenly one of those guys could slide to 9. where as most years you see small groupings of 3-4 guys that may shuffle between each other but you know who the top 3 are, who 4-7 are roughly even if you cant put them in order, again the same for 8-12 but this year it it appears this year is just one big group of about 10. right now fairley could go 1 or 8 just as easily. itll make for an interesting draft i think.

[....lybob]

I like Dareus slightly better than Fairley just because I think he will be a little more versatile, maybe play the run a little better, and keep the LBs a little cleaner but Fairley dropping from #1 to #9 on some peoples rankings seems a little bit stupid and seems to be what everyone says they won't do which is make huge adjustments based on the off-season workouts not what's on tape. Also these player rankings won't be settled until all the pro days are done - I predict when it's all said and done Bower and Gabbert will be the two players taken ahead of us.

[Typical TBD Guy]

IMO the author of that article, Gregg Doyel, focuses too much on the stats to suggest that Fairley is clearly the better player. But stats - especially college stats - are often misleading. Dareus played 3-4 DE in rotation, while Fairley played 4-3 DT for the vast majority of snaps.

 

Here is my current rank of the top five 3-4 DL/LB players in the draft:

 

1. Dareus (3-4 DE)

2. Fairley (3-4 DE)

3. Miller (3-4 JOLB)

4. Quinn (3-4 SOLB)

5. Bowers (3-4 DE)

 

As you can see, I think the Bills can't go wrong with either of the two mentioned in the article.

[robertpaul49]

I think Dareus will definitely be more versitile than Fairley, and he is more likely to hold up blockers; however, Fairley would be more of a penetrating DE. I think Fairley also slipped because he is smaller than the teams expected. I do not think this will be too much of issue for the Bills since he would be expected to play DE. I also think that he would pair nicely with Kyle Williams who also more a penetrator.

 

I absolutely do not like Quinn. I think he was a one year wonder, and I think picking this high could cause problems, i.e. Mike Williams. I think Newton would be a giant risk because the Bills are small market team, and I could definitely see a similiar attitude as Willis McGahee. If he becomes good, he will want to leave so he can become an entertainer and icon.

 

The Bills need to build up the team, and especially the offensive line before they select their quarterback of the future.

[1billsfan]

Fairley and Suh both dominated in their last year on college. I think the key at #3 is too get someone who actually dominated at his position in his last year. That's Quinn, Fairley, Peterson or Green.

 

Dareus made his name off of that one hit in a bowl game a couple of years ago. People say his stats suck because he was double teamed, well I'm sure that Suh and Fairley were double teamed often as well. If you can't beat double teams in college then you certainly will never do it at the next level. I agree that he's this year's Gerald McCoy.

[Dexter]

Sometimes those from warm weather climates don't respond well to moving to Buffalo...

 

 

Trade down and take JJ Watt instead...

[Thoner7]

to that effect - how much of that 90% was just knee jerk off the title game, with no actual familiarity with his film, lack of a body of work, or personality question marks. they saw three big plays and got real excited.

 

I don’t think much of it was knee jerk, but my 90% estimate im sure is a bit high. There is a good 5-6 week lead up to that title game and a lot of that talk was before the game – so obviously it couldn’t be influenced by it because it pre-dated it. After the game everyone did jump on his bandwagon though – but for good reason. Id like to have people get behind a draft pick after a GAME, rather than after a combine workout or pro day. IMO post combine is when Dareus over-took Fariley. I think that 99% of that is because Dareus weighed in at 320 and Fairly 290 something, because they were both equally impressive in the drills.

[jumbalaya]

I don’t think much of it was knee jerk, but my 90% estimate im sure is a bit high. There is a good 5-6 week lead up to that title game and a lot of that talk was before the game – so obviously it couldn’t be influenced by it because it pre-dated it. After the game everyone did jump on his bandwagon though – but for good reason. Id like to have people get behind a draft pick after a GAME, rather than after a combine workout or pro day. IMO post combine is when Dareus over-took Fariley. I think that 99% of that is because Dareus weighed in at 320 and Fairly 290 something, because they were both equally impressive in the drills.

Look at Fairley's pic, he sure doesn't look soft as was reported and he has a frame that can easily support another 30lbs without looking heavy.

[EldaBillsFan]

Fairley is overated

[1billsfan]

Fairley is overated

 

 

Go ask the quarterbacks in the SEC about that...LOL

[Drifter]

The few times I watched Auburn this year Fairley was the best player on either side of the ball. He stood out as someone I wanted to draft before the draft hype began. The Bills could do much worse than drafting Fairley e.g. Newton or Miller.

[Dexter]

Fairley is a tremendous talent, but has a lot of "risk," especially playing for a losing team in extreme cold. He is also much more "penetrator" than gap filler. 3-4 DEs are usually more the latter.

[NoSaint]

Go ask the quarterbacks in the SEC about that...LOL

 

I think he's very good but I'm not sure who the premiere guard or center he lined up against were. I also would say more then a handful of those qb hits cost his team yards.

 

I would be happy with him at 3, but like I said, theres no clear front runner in this draft. I also worry about building a 34 line based on penetration not gap control. Im not saying he or Kyle Williams can't hold the point but it certainly doesn't play to their skills that are special.

 

I don’t think much of it was knee jerk, but my 90% estimate im sure is a bit high. There is a good 5-6 week lead up to that title game and a lot of that talk was before the game – so obviously it couldn’t be influenced by it because it pre-dated it. After the game everyone did jump on his bandwagon though – but for good reason. Id like to have people get behind a draft pick after a GAME, rather than after a combine workout or pro day. IMO post combine is when Dareus over-took Fariley. I think that 99% of that is because Dareus weighed in at 320 and Fairly 290 something, because they were both equally impressive in the drills.

 

I think that if you realistically go back to November mocks you'd be hard pressed to find him higher than 7-8 and many in the teens. That said, it's a November mock so I'm not arguing he's the 14th best player - just that his stock bumped up a lot. That Georgia game left a foul taste in a lot of peoples mouths and he certainly wasn't in many top 5s at that point.

 

I also think you saw analysts starting to back dareus before the combine. I know a few high profile guys did in feb and made it much easier to discuss the two comparatively. It seemed the mood here changed early February - or atleast dareus was picking up momentum while fairly started to dip.

 

In the end I think they are pretty even with dareus maybe fitting our schemes better

[Stl Bills]

Fairley is overated

Anybody who says he is overated hasn't seen him play. He's the best player in the draft, he's much better than Dareus IMO and we'd be LUCKY to draft him at #3.

[1billsfan]

I think he's very good but I'm not sure who the premiere guard or center he lined up against were. I also would say more then a handful of those qb hits cost his team yards.

 

I would be happy with him at 3, but like I said, theres no clear front runner in this draft. I also worry about building a 34 line based on penetration not gap control. Im not saying he or Kyle Williams can't hold the point but it certainly doesn't play to their skills that are special.

 

 

 

I think that if you realistically go back to November mocks you'd be hard pressed to find him higher than 7-8 and many in the teens. That said, it's a November mock so I'm not arguing he's the 14th best player - just that his stock bumped up a lot. That Georgia game left a foul taste in a lot of peoples mouths and he certainly wasn't in many top 5s at that point.

 

I also think you saw analysts starting to back dareus before the combine. I know a few high profile guys did in feb and made it much easier to discuss the two comparatively. It seemed the mood here changed early February - or atleast dareus was picking up momentum while fairly started to dip.

 

In the end I think they are pretty even with dareus maybe fitting our schemes better

 

 

"I also worry about building a 34 line based on penetration not gap control."

 

So you're wanting to pick a gap control player at #3? To me, that's a crazy thing to do. You can find gap guys in the later rounds if that's what you want. The #3 pick is supposed to be all about having a huge impact and playmaking ability, not gap control.

 

Players like Quinn, Fairley, Peterson, Green, Miller (though I'm not big on him), and even a guy like Newton. These are all #3 overall "impact" type players, not role players like a gap filler. Dareus is this year's Gerald McCoy, nice player but will never be an impact guy like Suh.

[NoSaint]

"I also worry about building a 34 line based on penetration not gap control."

 

So you're wanting to pick a gap control player at #3? To me, that's a crazy thing to do. You can find gap guys in the later rounds if that's what you want. The #3 pick is supposed to be all about having a huge impact and playmaking ability, not gap control.

 

Players like Quinn, Fairley, Peterson, Green, Miller (though I'm not big on him), and even a guy like Newton. These are all #3 overall "impact" type players, not role players like a gap filler. Dareus is this year's Gerald McCoy, nice player but will never be an impact guy like Suh.

 

sorry? a guy that holds the point and sets the edge while making plays against two lineman, and is versatile enough for 2 schemes would not be a terrible 3 pick (now which one i just described probably depends which you like more), but yes - i understand your point. a guy that just stands in one place is not a great value at 3. I dont think there are any of those being discussed though. Both guys are premiere talents in this league potentially. One has a rep for the flashier plays in the backfield out of a 43, and one has experience as a 5 tech end in a 34(which coincidentally is what we need!). I think that they are far closer in value than fairley fans on this board like to admit. that is not to say that fairley is a bad talent or wont be wildly successful. I just think that some people have fairley a notch high, and dareus a shade low, and as the offseason goes on the "experts" will balance the guys out. ive been saying that since the week of the title game, and i think its proven to be an accurate assessment so far....

 

i also dont think that what our line needs is another KW penetrator. If we get a guy that can do that, and keep linebackers clean, it would give some nice versatility, but at some point, those linebackers need to not be taking on 300+ lbs lineman. at three you want a complete player for your scheme, and not just a penetrator either. so which has the best balance between the two sets of responsibility?

 

when you are looking at our talent, scheme, etc.... dareus might be a shade ahead, when you look at rareness of skillset fairley might be a shade ahead. im all for bpa, but i dont think the gap between them is huge, on a 34 line especially.

[PDaDdy]

Isn't Fairley a 4-3 DT? Sounds like someone didn't get the memo we will be playing a 3-4.