Astro's Top Ten

[Astrobot]

I'm doing my own value boards now, separate from DraftTek, because it helps me define what I'd like to see from the draft, and where. These aren't carved in stone. Some players aren't there because they will be picked before we get to ours. Some changes are still being made to our Big Board as we sort combine results. My Top Ten for each Round 1-4:

 

RD1 (Philosophy: Get dominant defensive player to get out of rush-defense basement, or get franchise guy)

Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama - Three down player, can go to DE too, a hybrid dream

Nick Fairley DT43 Auburn - He's better as a 4-3 but so dominating

Patrick Peterson CB LSU - Best CB in several seasons, including Revis IMHO

Cameron Newton QB Auburn - quick, agile, size, a winner, may be our chance, groomable

Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri - more pro-set ready, best decision-maker, great TD to INT ratio

Cameron Jordan DE43 California - best run defender at DE? size, speed, agility, dominated

Da'Quan Bowers DE43 Clemson - could be Bruce; could be injured his whole career

Robert Quinn OLB34 North Carolina - Best rush LB, risk/reward isn't Nix's style though

Von Miller OLB34 Texas A&M - explosion. 2 TFL at Sr Bowl with Bills coaching. 16 sacks in 12 games

Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska - with rare break to the ball, may be great safety as well

Just Missed due to philosophy: Anthony Castonzo OT and Tyron Smith OT)

 

RD2 Philosophy: Get BPA up the middle of D, get LB, get 1 OL or groomable QB (no reaches)

Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin - Best for a run game team, Could be best RT in the NFL pretty quick, very cut

Marcus Cannon OT TCU - Size is hard to teach, could be a 15 year RT.

Phil Taylor DT34 Baylor - Likely the best nose guard in the draft and could go earlier

Stephen Paea DT43 Oregon State - Strongest ever bench press, bench a max of 550, injury makes him RD2

Brooks Reed OLB34 Arizona - Reed>Kerrigan>Watt. Elmore had more sacks but Reed was double teamed

Mark Herzlich OLB43 Boston College - storybook tale (bone cancer), fiery player, Disney Spirit Award

Jake Locker QB Washington - athleticism, movement; needs Gailey, Mayock has him #2 & rated>Bradford

Christian Ponder QB Florida State - Crisp at combine,Senior Bowl; one of best at leading the receiver

Christian Ballard DE34 Iowa - Ballard can play line for 4-3 or 3-4, scheme-versatile

Jason Pinkston OG Pittsburgh - Wanny boy,Tough, move Wood to OC permanently

(Just Missed: Akeem Ayers ILB, Cameron Heyward DE43, Kyle Rudolph TE)

 

RD3 Philosophy: Get Player Not Drafted Above in This Order: ILB, QB, RT, DT, OG

Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU - Made calls at Gailey's Sr. Bowl win,Mike LB (3-2-6), INT vs McElroy for win

Casey Matthews ILB Oregon - He's a Matthews. Will fall due to injury but not due to heart

John Moffit OG Wisconsin - run blocking is his strength, ferocious, can back up at OC

Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada - mobile, threw for 20 TD & ran for 20 TD (3 QB's ever did--2 are in draft)

Mason Foster ILB Washington - instincts and production, may be better than Ayers when moved inside

Drake Nevis DT43 LSU - Alualu II, occupies 2 blockers on every play

Marcus Gilbert RT Florida - Bills got a good look at him on line at Sr. Bowl, strong push, nonstop

James Carpenter OG Alabama -mauler in run game, solid in pass, Acho's toughest match-up he said

Rodney Hudson OG Florida State - leader, great leverage, needs to get bigger

Owen Marecic ILB Stanford - I love throwback lunch pail types; he played both ways on >80% of downs

(Just Missed due to philosophy: Austin Pettis WR)

 

RD4 Philosophy: Pick TWO: Fill In Depth (RT, OC, DT, DE, TE, QB), get LB, or get high-vert CB

Julius Thomas TE Portland St - Buchanan loves this guy, basketballer, caught TD+2pt in Shrine Game

Tim Barnes OC Missouri - three year starter, hiked to Gabbert, probably #3 Center

Andy Dalton QB TCU Went 42-7 as a starter, including 25-1 the past two, will be at top in Wonderlic

DeMarcus Love OG Arkansas - Love fits in with the Wood - Levitre jokes. run blocker: coach up at RT

Lee Ziemba RG Auburn Always in play, Wood-like motor, 52 consec. starts, mauler, great hands, locks on

Kenrick Ellis DT34 Hampton - Ellis fits 3-4 scheme at NT, some baggage but talent up the waz

Greg Romeus OLB34 Pittsburgh - Wanny boy,6-7, 285,should've come out in '09 after he was BigEast POY

Shareece Wright CB USC - Gailey saw in Sr. Bowl, fluid hips, anticipation ability

Kendric Burney CB North Carolina good instincts, ball skills 3 INT day on Thurs

Chris White ILB Mississippi State - led team in TT (110), solos (56), TFL (15.5)

K.J. Wright ILB Mississippi State - size, speed, wingspan, long arms, good blitzer

Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State - scary fast, quick closer, great vertical,3 yrs.,not a press CB, thin

Orlando Franklin OG Miami (FL) - strong run blocker, good tech, more likely guard, has played some OG

Korey Lindsey CB S. Illinois - athletic playmaker had productive seasons, 4.5 speed, only 5'10"

Greg McElroy QB Alabama - 24-3, national championship show his game management skills, but avg.arm

Marvin Austin DT43 North Carolina - surrounded by great players at NC, wouldn’t be so at Buffalo

Chykie Brown CB Texas- injuries kept him from reaching potential, but UT was #1 in rush defense

 

Lawrence Guy DE34 Arizona State - physical, agile, needs seasoning

[truth on hold]

If you're right on Peterson, then by all means take him if he's there at 3. And with his big play ability to make a pick and take it to the house (like Deion), I see the case why he'll be better than Revis.

 

Did Green drop out of your top 10 after the combine?

 

Also, is Wilkerson not in top 10 Rd 2 because you see him drafted in Rd 1?

 

I'd love to see us get Peterson in Rd 1 and Wilkerson Rd 2.

[Astrobot]

If you're right on Peterson, then by all means take him if he's there at 3. And with his big play ability to make a pick and take it to the house (like Deion), I see the case why he'll be better than Revis.

 

Did Green drop out of your top 10 after the combine?

 

Also, is Wilkerson not in top 10 Rd 2 because you see him drafted in Rd 1?

 

I'd love to see us get Peterson in Rd 1 and Wilkerson Rd 2.

 

AJ Green wasn't in there just because he didn't fit my philosophy about need. I bet he's on Nix's Board in the top 7 because none of us saw the Spiller pick.

 

Wilkerson's flying up our board and is now at #26. We have him now going to the Chargers. Our Chargers Analyst says, "The loss of Igor Olshansky a few seasons ago, coupled with the loss of Jamal Williams this past year, really hurt the Chargers DL. Teams have now focused their attention on Luis Castillo since his linemates provide little help. ..The Chargers are an ideal fit for the former Temple big man, who can demand double teams at the point of attack thanks to his strength. He is a great penetrator too, capable of collapsing the pocket. Wilkerson would provide an instant DE upgrade."

[Thoner7]

Good list, but our draft could be anywhere from great to terrible based on some of the guys you listed.

 

PS I love Herzlich but dont see him going until the mid 3rd at earliest with a 4.9 40. I think he will be a stud someday and hope we take him in the 4th, but 2nd is high for him. Carpenter is also a stud OLman and we should go out and get him in a "reach" scenario - whever that is. our 3rd may be too late.

[Dr. Fong]

That's a good list. Carimi would be a no-brainer with the second pick. Unfortunately, he won't be there.

[The Senator]

That scenario, Astro, makes it easy...

 

1) Gabbert (if he's gone by #3-pick, then Miller)

2) Carimi

3) Marecic

4) Romeus

 

If only it really was that easy...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

[symbiant]

Really nice job.

 

I would:

1) Put in AJ Green over Prince Amukamura.... i think we'd go AJ Green before Prince.

2) Put in Martez Wilson over Jason Pinkston... unlikely we take Pinkston over the rest of those guys, but if a Locker/Martez/Phil Taylor are there... they would be top options.

 

Colin Kaepernick might not last until round 3 with over 10 teams needing QB.

[MexicanBuffaloBill]

What about this?

 

1- Marcel Dareus

2- Phil Taylor

3- Colin kapernick

4- Chimdi Chekwa

4- Orlando Franklin

 

Well, I would love that draft, and if we have a trading down scenario, for 2 or 7 spots, i´ll do it, and get and extra second round, and pick, maybe kyle rudolph if he is there or martez wilson......

 

What are your thoughts in this, astro??????

[timba]

Great work as always astro!

 

With the above, I'd go:

 

1 - Marcel Dareus

2 - Gabe Carimi (I really don't think he'll make it to rd2)

3 - Casey Matthews

4 - Greg Romeus

4 - Demarcus Love

[Astrobot]

People think Carimi will be drafted in RD1, and that's very possible.

 

Here's how we get Carimi in RD2.

 

When the 32 DraftTek Analysts were asked to put a Priority ranking on LT, nobody gave the position a P1 or P2 rating. Seven teams gave it a P3 rating, though.

 

ARI at #5 is not going to take Castonzo and drafts after us in RD2. I'll put Cam Newton there at #5. NO OT DRAFTED.

 

DAL at #9 will take the first LT (We think Costanzo despite Tyron Smith's vault up the ratings). They have needs on both offensive and defensive lines, and have to get one filled in RD1.I think Amukamara is their other temptation but we'll give them Castonzo. ONE LT GONE.

 

MIN at #12 will have a chance at Julio Jones, AJ Green (depending on which one fell past Washington), a DT, or an OT. In our recent mock Dareus falls to here. That ain't happening, and it's way early for Liuget. If Costanzo/Smith are there, they'll be tempted. We'll cede Smith here. TWO LT's GONE.

 

NEP* drafts now at #17. See below. NO OT DRAFTED.

NEP* drafts at #28, right before Chicago. See below.NO OT DRAFTED.

 

CHI at #29 Note that RT Kevin Shaffer was released, and they're in limbo with Kruetz. This will likely be a line pick, but the big two are gone at OT, and Wisniewski is there. Also, with Tommie Harris being cut this week and the status of Anthony Adams uncertain until the CBA is done we could also see Paea going there, but we'll pencil in Wisniewski. NO OT DRAFTED.

 

GB at #32 have top priorities RT, LT, OLB34. The BPA in our mock at this point is Justin Houston OLB, but some like Brooks Reed as well or better. Marcus Cannon is the RT available, and Solder is our LT best available, although I like Carimi at RT for our run game. Because GB needs RT and LT, they may make a play for two tackles in this draft, and therefore take the LT first. We're giving them Solder.THREE LT's GONE.

 

NEP* at #17 #28 or #33 is the Wild Card. They want OT, RB, DE, OG with a dropping WR being possible (It's not). They will not reach for any player, and the big 2 OT's are gone. We have Sherrod and Solder as LT's over Carimi (who will be best at RT but may surprise) on our board, but I've read the Pats comments on Carimi, and he's a distinct possibility, but there are higher players on the board at #17 and #28. So we'll take JJ Watt DE at #17, Mikel LeShoure RB at #28, and they will trade the #33 pick (Pats* drafting Heyward is possible at #33 if they don't take Watt earlier). NO OT DRAFTED.

 

And that's how Carimi falls to us at #33.

[Pete]

That scenario, Astro, makes it easy...

 

1) Gabbert (if he's gone by #3-pick, then Miller)

2) Carimi

3) Marecic

4) Romeus

 

If only it really was that easy...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

vomit

[Green Lightning]

That scenario, Astro, makes it easy...

 

1) Gabbert (if he's gone by #3-pick, then Miller)

2) Carimi

3) Marecic

4) Romeus

 

If only it really was that easy...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

 

...and finish dead last against the run again.

[boyst]

Chimdi Chekwa

You do not hear much about him and for good reason. He plays in the Big 10 and while one of the best in the conf. he hasn't faced the same competition as the SEC or PAC players. I still like him but do not believe we need to draft him. Another OSU DB on our team, maybe (Whitner -yes he'll resign, and Youboty)?