Mr. WEO Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 First, I agree that you don't want to use a first round pick on a player who hasn't played much. A player's performance in games is a much more reliable indicator of what he can bring to the NFL than is his performance in workouts. But a lot of that performance in games is subject to random variation. You can see that same kind of random variation at the NFL level. Take Byrd for example. For a long stretch during his rookie year, he was intercepting two passes a game. Had he sustained that pace over an entire season, he would have had 32 INTs for the year. An INT rate like that is absolutely ridiculous, and is probably twice as many INTs as anyone in the NFL has ever had in a single season. But he had just one INT his second season, because the same random variation which had worked for him his rookie year worked against him his second year. Someone who looked just at his rookie year tape would overestimate Byrd's effect as a ball hawk, while someone who looked just at his second year would underestimate it. That's why, when evaluating college players, it's so important to look at multiple years of play, rather than focusing on just one good year. In Green's freshman year, he had 963 receiving yards, which led the entire SEC. In his injury-shortened sophomore year, he had 751 receiving yards. He followed that up with a very good junior year. (Though he'd been suspended his first four games for having sold his Independence Bowl jersey to some guy.) In his junior year, his team's offense averaged 24 points per game without him, and 40 points per game with him. I realize none of the above guarantees he'll be a success at the NFL level. In particular, he (like any other rookie) will find it a lot harder to do to NFL DBs what he did to college DBs. The only point I'm making with this is that he cannot be dismissed as a one-year wonder. To address your other point: prior to Warner's arrival in Arizona, their quarterback was Matt Leinart. After his departure, they went back to Leinart, as well as to other guys of that same caliber. Fitzpatrick isn't within shouting distance of Warner as a quarterback, but he's considerably better than guys like Leinart or the QBs Detroit has had recently. If we get an elite WR, it's not like his talents will be completely wasted, as they would have been with Leinart at QB. That said, I think that an upgrade at QB needs to occur within the next two years or so, and has to be part of the long-term plan. The Bills could attempt an upgrade this year, for example by taking Ponder in the second round. Or they could attempt one next year by trying to position themselves to take Luck. The latter would involve trading away as much as they can in this year's draft for first round picks in next year's draft. If the Bills walk into the 2012 draft with multiple picks in the top-10, and at least one pick in the top-5, they'll be in a position to make someone a very tempting offer for Luck! But to achieve that, they'll have to turn their first (and probably second) round in this year's draft into picks in the 2012 draft. Obviously going down that road would prevent the Bills from drafting Green. As for the effect Green could have on the offense, consider the effect Randy Moss had! In 2006 (the year before Moss arrived), Tom Brady averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt. In 2007, with Moss around, that average jumped to 8.3! Brady's career average is 7.4 yards per attempt, so you can see that Moss played an important role in helping Brady perform at well above his usual average. My point is that Green may not be the best WR in college this year. Blackmon had insane numbers--nearly 150 yards a game. He had over 100 in every game he played. Green was held to under 100 in 6 of the 9 games he played this year. He was "on pace" (if you will) for a 1200 yard season. No doubt when Blackmon comes out next year we will see a discussion of him as "a once in a decade/generation/lifetime WR". We have a solid receiving corps, I think. They are young (other than Lee). Unless you think Evans is washed up, I don't see why replacing him as the number 1 WR (or Stevie for that matter) with Green adds significant value. If we draft a "franchise QB" (or upgrade) in the next year or two, adequate receivers can be found everywhere for him to throw to and win with. Brady had one big year with Moss, but after that, he realized he didn't need Moss as a primary target--or need a primary target at all. Moss faded into oblivion as Brady ran away with the League Offensive MVP. God bless Fitz but the comparisons with Warner are impossible in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 My point is that Green may not be the best WR in college this year. Blackmon had insane numbers--nearly 150 yards a game. He had over 100 in every game he played. Green was held to under 100 in 6 of the 9 games he played this year. He was "on pace" (if you will) for a 1200 yard season. No doubt when Blackmon comes out next year we will see a discussion of him as "a once in a decade/generation/lifetime WR". We have a solid receiving corps, I think. They are young (other than Lee). Unless you think Evans is washed up, I don't see why replacing him as the number 1 WR (or Stevie for that matter) with Green adds significant value. If we draft a "franchise QB" (or upgrade) in the next year or two, adequate receivers can be found everywhere for him to throw to and win with. Brady had one big year with Moss, but after that, he realized he didn't need Moss as a primary target--or need a primary target at all. Moss faded into oblivion as Brady ran away with the League Offensive MVP. God bless Fitz but the comparisons with Warner are impossible in reality. What would you say if Buddy had DB Peterson on top of his Modrak Board? I know what NY Bill's response will be. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like AJ Green. But how many games has Calvin Johnson won Detroit? About as many as Suh has? By most accounts a better prospect (slightly) than Fairley. And one more if the ref's didn't rip him off on that TD catch. Yeah - we need LB's (no - we really don't need DL - that was last year's draft - give Troup and Carrington a chance). BUT you do not pass on a clear dominating talent. As for the WR's we have? Evans is clearly done. We used to blame Trent Edwards - but after most of 2010 with Fitz, there's no denying the problem with Lee Evans drop in production is Lee Evans. Roscoe had a nice breakout season - until his #170 frame failed him. He's clearly not a strong #1. I love Stevie Johnson - but he's a better set of hands away from being a top WR. He looks mighty nice as a #2. David Nelson is nice - but we aren't calling him our ace threat are we? Most plays you only get 2 WR's on the field - maybe 3. Having a bunch of good ones is not the same as having one who dominates. AJ Green will dominate. On the other hand - who do we draft on Defense @ #3? Dareus? So we sit our last year's second round pick on the bench? Bowers? So one of Carrington/Williams/Edwards sits? If there was a Patrick Willis out there, I'd be all for taking him. I don't see him though. There are good LB's with 2nd and 3rd round grades who would immediately upgrade us. 3rd pick in the draft needs to dominate. Unless you think Evans is washed up, Correct - I think Evans is washed up. He's been mediocre or worse for over two years now, in fact. We've just been kidding ourselves remembering his better days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 (edited) Correct - I think Evans is washed up. He's been mediocre or worse for over two years now, in fact. We've just been kidding ourselves remembering his better days. Isnt it the case he's a FA at the end of 2011 season anyway? If he has a monster year (which I doubt), someone else will sign him ... If he continues to decline (which has been the trend), he won't be resigned. This will in all likelihood be his last year as a Bill. Be real nice to have Green on the roster and not have to be looking for Evan's replacement in a year. Edited February 3, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 About as many as Suh has? By most accounts a better prospect (slightly) than Fairley. And one more if the ref's didn't rip him off on that TD catch. Yeah - we need LB's (no - we really don't need DL - that was last year's draft - give Troup and Carrington a chance). BUT you do not pass on a clear dominating talent. As for the WR's we have? Evans is clearly done. We used to blame Trent Edwards - but after most of 2010 with Fitz, there's no denying the problem with Lee Evans drop in production is Lee Evans. Roscoe had a nice breakout season - until his #170 frame failed him. He's clearly not a strong #1. I love Stevie Johnson - but he's a better set of hands away from being a top WR. He looks mighty nice as a #2. David Nelson is nice - but we aren't calling him our ace threat are we? Most plays you only get 2 WR's on the field - maybe 3. Having a bunch of good ones is not the same as having one who dominates. AJ Green will dominate. On the other hand - who do we draft on Defense @ #3? Dareus? So we sit our last year's second round pick on the bench? Bowers? So one of Carrington/Williams/Edwards sits? If there was a Patrick Willis out there, I'd be all for taking him. I don't see him though. There are good LB's with 2nd and 3rd round grades who would immediately upgrade us. 3rd pick in the draft needs to dominate. Correct - I think Evans is washed up. He's been mediocre or worse for over two years now, in fact. We've just been kidding ourselves remembering his better days. It really sucked that he drew all that double coverage to open things up for Stevie. It would have really sucked to have Evans in the NE game when SJ was a non-factor. I'm sorry, man, you can't show me a game like Lee had against Baltimore this season and tell me he's washed up. You can't. Does he need to find another level of desire? Maybe. But I think with a full offseason of stability in Gailey's system, you don't give up on him. You're selling low on a guy who costs next to nothing for a #1 receiver. That's stupid. Move him and I guarantee you will see him find success with his new team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 What would you say if Buddy had DB Peterson on top of his Modrak Board? I know what NY Bill's response will be. LOL Half the posters are already OK with this---as long as he is the "BPA". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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