A Few Thoughts About The Game

[Coach Tuesday]

. ..I still don't understand everyone's infatuation with Reggie Corner. I don't really ever recall him making a good play.

 

Same here. Whitner is villified, Corner is annointed. Just because of draft position?

[Orton's Arm]

If that's his point then he's really going out on a limb, because he's only comparing completion %, and Fitz's is still improving. Unless you happen to know Warner's completion percentage in college and in the Arena League, I don't know how you can be so sure about their differences.

I don't recall saying I was only comparing completion percentage. Kurt Warner is probably going to be a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. While I'm impressed by Fitz's toughness, moxie, intelligence, ability to read defenses, and on-field generalship, he's no Kurt Warner.

 

A quarterback's yards per pass attempt stat is almost as important as a running back's average yards per rush stat. Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt for his career. This season he's averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt--a solid improvement.

 

Over the course of his career, Kurt Warner has averaged 7.9 yards per passing attempt.

 

That's just one of the reasons why Kurt Warner will be in the Hall of Fame, and Ryan Fitzpatrick won't be.

 

Granted, Kurt Warner's yards per attempt stat is very high. Even Peyton Manning "only" has a career average of 7.6 yards per attempt. To put this in perspective, Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per passing attempt.

 

Obviously, Fitz is playing at a much higher level this year than Edwards ever has. No question there. But the fact remains that Fitz's yards per attempt average for the season of 6.8 is a lot more like Edwards' career average of 6.5 than it is like Warner's career average of 7.9 or Manning's average of 7.6. The reason for that is simple: Warner and Manning will make throws that Fitzpatrick will miss. You can see that when you watch the games. Fitz will throw an errant pass here, or a bad pass there. People tend to overlook or forgive that because of the good plays and good decisions he makes at other times, and because it's obvious he gives the position everything he has. But those bad throws show up in the stats, and hurt the team over the course of the game. A team that gets Fitz-level play from the quarterback position is going to be at a significant disadvantage when facing a team that gets Warner- or Manning-level of play.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Edwards' Arm

[Clippers of Nfl]

i appreciate the opinion. i do. However,

 

why is there so much butt kissing in this thread?

[Ramius]

Same here. Whitner is villified, Corner is annointed. Just because of draft position?

 

This is the truth. If Freddie Jackson was a 1st-2nd round pick and had the same production, most of the board would be focused on running him out of town.

[Peace]

I don't recall saying I was only comparing completion percentage. Kurt Warner is probably going to be a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. While I'm impressed by Fitz's toughness, moxie, intelligence, ability to read defenses, and on-field generalship, he's no Kurt Warner.

 

A quarterback's yards per pass attempt stat is almost as important as a running back's average yards per rush stat. Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt for his career. This season he's averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt--a solid improvement.

 

Over the course of his career, Kurt Warner has averaged 7.9 yards per passing attempt.

 

That's just one of the reasons why Kurt Warner will be in the Hall of Fame, and Ryan Fitzpatrick won't be.

 

Granted, Kurt Warner's yards per attempt stat is very high. Even Peyton Manning "only" has a career average of 7.6 yards per attempt. To put this in perspective, Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per passing attempt.

 

Obviously, Fitz is playing at a much higher level this year than Edwards ever has. No question there. But the fact remains that Fitz's yards per attempt average for the season of 6.8 is a lot more like Edwards' career average of 6.5 than it is like Warner's career average of 7.9 or Manning's average of 7.6. The reason for that is simple: Warner and Manning will make throws that Fitzpatrick will miss. You can see that when you watch the games. Fitz will throw an errant pass here, or a bad pass there. People tend to overlook or forgive that because of the good plays and good decisions he makes at other times, and because it's obvious he gives the position everything he has. But those bad throws show up in the stats, and hurt the team over the course of the game. A team that gets Fitz-level play from the quarterback position is going to be at a significant disadvantage when facing a team that gets Warner- or Manning-level of play.

 

Do that math. 3 completions extra in every 4 games and Fitz is with the likes of Rothlisbeerger in completion %. That criticism is overused and overrated.

 

The reason Fitz's numbers are lower (compared to the greatest QBs of all time) is because the ball is out in 2 seconds so the routes are usually short. And why are the routes short? BEcause the line (esp tackles) can't be trusted. Fitz is doing a lot with minimal help.

 

Fitz is having one of the greatest QB seasons in Bills history and people are on his case. It's really fantastic.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Peace

[Bill from NYC]

Fitz is having one of the greatest QB seasons in Bills history and people are on his case. It's really fantastic.

 

I think that being a Bills Fans has left all of us so astounded over the years that often we don't even know what to wish for. Btw, I am including myself here, no doubt.

 

Last season we had 2 good running backs, yet most fans were delighted when they RAN to the podium and drafted Spiller for virtually no reason. Now, Fitz is lighting things up on a team which is a step above horrible, and I actually find myself hoping they draft Mallett. In essence, this places me in the same category of those who I was (and btw still am) sure were not at all able to see the clear picture of what is wrong with this team.

 

Imo, there is SO much to be determined by what we do in these next 2 games. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if we somehow beat NE or the Jets, especially with this foot video going around. Who knows, we might win both and draft in the middle of the pack! Would this surprise you?

 

One thing I WILL cling to: This team will be a bunch of weak sisters until we have a pair of big, strong, mean offensive tackles. Defenses will beat us until this problem is solved. Period.

[Orton's Arm]

Do that math. 3 completions extra in every 4 games and Fitz is with the likes of Rothlisbeerger in completion %. That criticism is overused and overrated.

 

The reason Fitz's numbers are lower (compared to the greatest QBs of all time) is because the ball is out in 2 seconds so the routes are usually short. And why are the routes short? BEcause the line (esp tackles) can't be trusted. Fitz is doing a lot with minimal help.

 

Fitz is having one of the greatest QB seasons in Bills history and people are on his case. It's really fantastic.

To repeat: my concerns about Fitz are based on what I see on the field in terms of accuracy issues, as well as on his average yards per attempt. I'm not too worried about the completion percentage stat. That stat tends to give too many rewards to guys who dump the ball off a lot--like Trent Edwards--while punishing players who take more high risk/high reward shots down the field. Yards per attempt is a fair way of comparing players from the first category with players from the second.

 

You mentioned that the Bills' offensive line still needs some work, and you're right. But still. In the time Warner spent with the Cardinals, his average yards per attempt were as follows:

 

7.3

7.7

7.9

8.2

7.2

 

He did that with Mike Gandy at LT. When he had Orlando Pace as his LT he did even more; and put up numbers like 8.7, 9.9. and 8.8 while with the Rams. So your point is well-taken: problems with the offensive line will cause a noticeable decrease in a quarterback's average yards per attempt stat. But the Cardinals line Warner had was at least as bad as the Bills line from this year, and probably worse. Demetrius Bell is certainly a better LT than Mike Gandy. But that said, even Warner's worst year with the Cardinals (7.2 yards per attempt) was a lot better than the year Fitz is having for the Bills. Warner averaged about 7.7 yards per pass attempt with the Cards, which is a lot better than Fitz's 6.8 yards per attempt for 2010.

 

Fitz is playing like one of the ten or twelve best quarterbacks in the league. He is not the problem, in the sense that he's doing a good job. The point I'm trying to convey is the difference between the play Fitz is providing and elite quarterback play. If you transition from a guy who's merely above-average (such as Fitz) to a guy who's truly elite (like Warner), it fundamentally alters the dynamics of your entire team. That's why it's worthwhile to pay a high price for an elite QB, even when you already have an above-average QB like Fitz.

[Coach Tuesday]

To repeat: my concerns about Fitz are based on what I see on the field in terms of accuracy issues, as well as on his average yards per attempt. I'm not too worried about the completion percentage stat. That stat tends to give too many rewards to guys who dump the ball off a lot--like Trent Edwards--while punishing players who take more high risk/high reward shots down the field. Yards per attempt is a fair way of comparing players from the first category with players from the second.

 

You mentioned that the Bills' offensive line still needs some work, and you're right. But still. In the time Warner spent with the Cardinals, his average yards per attempt were as follows:

 

7.3

7.7

7.9

8.2

7.2

 

He did that with Mike Gandy at LT. When he had Orlando Pace as his LT he did even more; and put up numbers like 8.7, 9.9. and 8.8 while with the Rams. So your point is well-taken: problems with the offensive line will cause a noticeable decrease in a quarterback's average yards per attempt stat. But the Cardinals line Warner had was at least as bad as the Bills line from this year, and probably worse. Demetrius Bell is certainly a better LT than Mike Gandy. But that said, even Warner's worst year with the Cardinals (7.2 yards per attempt) was a lot better than the year Fitz is having for the Bills. Warner averaged about 7.7 yards per pass attempt with the Cards, which is a lot better than Fitz's 6.8 yards per attempt for 2010.

 

Fitz is playing like one of the ten or twelve best quarterbacks in the league. He is not the problem, in the sense that he's doing a good job. The point I'm trying to convey is the difference between the play Fitz is providing and elite quarterback play. If you transition from a guy who's merely above-average (such as Fitz) to a guy who's truly elite (like Warner), it fundamentally alters the dynamics of your entire team. That's why it's worthwhile to pay a high price for an elite QB, even when you already have an above-average QB like Fitz.

 

I agree with you about using YPA. But the sample size for Fitz is just too small right now.

[Peace]

To repeat: my concerns about Fitz are based on what I see on the field in terms of accuracy issues, as well as on his average yards per attempt. I'm not too worried about the completion percentage stat. That stat tends to give too many rewards to guys who dump the ball off a lot--like Trent Edwards--while punishing players who take more high risk/high reward shots down the field. Yards per attempt is a fair way of comparing players from the first category with players from the second.

 

You mentioned that the Bills' offensive line still needs some work, and you're right. But still. In the time Warner spent with the Cardinals, his average yards per attempt were as follows:

 

7.3

7.7

7.9

8.2

7.2

 

He did that with Mike Gandy at LT. When he had Orlando Pace as his LT he did even more; and put up numbers like 8.7, 9.9. and 8.8 while with the Rams. So your point is well-taken: problems with the offensive line will cause a noticeable decrease in a quarterback's average yards per attempt stat. But the Cardinals line Warner had was at least as bad as the Bills line from this year, and probably worse. Demetrius Bell is certainly a better LT than Mike Gandy. But that said, even Warner's worst year with the Cardinals (7.2 yards per attempt) was a lot better than the year Fitz is having for the Bills. Warner averaged about 7.7 yards per pass attempt with the Cards, which is a lot better than Fitz's 6.8 yards per attempt for 2010.

 

Fitz is playing like one of the ten or twelve best quarterbacks in the league. He is not the problem, in the sense that he's doing a good job. The point I'm trying to convey is the difference between the play Fitz is providing and elite quarterback play. If you transition from a guy who's merely above-average (such as Fitz) to a guy who's truly elite (like Warner), it fundamentally alters the dynamics of your entire team. That's why it's worthwhile to pay a high price for an elite QB, even when you already have an above-average QB like Fitz.

 

You have to stop comparing a guy who didn't start the year to one of the best QBs of all time. It's making your argument silly. Warner also had one of the best RBs ever in St. Louis and not one but at least 3 HOF WRs to throw to during his career. Fitz has Lee Evans and Steve Johnson. Think that has something to do with his Yds per attempt being down?

 

How about you give Fitz Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce with Marshall Faulk in the backfield and Orlando Pace at tackle? Think his yds per attempt might be up? Or how about Larry Fitzgerald and Boldin? With so-so talent in New York, Warner couldn't even crack the starting lineup.

[Acantha]

Please publish a list of the items that TSW members are permitted to complain about. You may consult with Promo the Robot if you like. That way, we'll know in advance which complaints/criticisms are allowed. Thanks.

Only if you publish a list of opinions TSW members are allowed to disagree with. That way no one will have to waste their time having an opposing opinion of their own.

[Coach Tuesday]

Only if you publish a list of opinions TSW members are allowed to disagree with. That way no one will have to waste their time having an opposing opinion of their own.

 

Folks can disagree about anything as far as I'm concerned. But there are 2 people on this Board who go nuts every time any poster has the audacity to complain about or question something that OBD is doing, or call out a player other than Maybin. Enough already.

Edited December 23, 2010 by Coach Tuesday