Who would do better with the Bills Luck or Newton?

[Hplarrm]

Actually my sense is that the Bills perform better with a vet QB in 2011 than with either rookie as the Bills O game is going to be defined by however the adventure of OL development turns out (the Bills current OL is at least 1 and a half players away from adequacy and a starting RT talent and a swing guy capable of allowing us to deal with injuries to starters are going to have to be acquired). Even with this acquisition, 2011 is gonna be about building chemistry between the players. Even if Luck or Newton turns out to be the real deal career wise, one thing that the far less physically talented Fitzy brings than these notable rookies is a vets ability to:

 

1. Read NFL Ds and not be fooled by opposing DCs as easily as any rookie QB will be no matter how good he is.

2. Be able to help Hamgartner or Wood change blocking schemes to fit the defense likely blitzes. Until the rookie sees a bunch of games and learns how truly fast the game is as a pro as a;; rookies express wonder at this. The C is gonna be on their own for awhile with any rookie QB.

3. No one can judge right now how quick the rookie's release is going to be (even P. Mannings lightening release was not as fast as a rookie and it would be football foolish to make claims that any rookie QB is simply going to turn inadequate OL talent into marvelous stuff merely by his presence.

 

If the Bill were disciplined enough to sit the rookie QB and let him watch and learn his rookie year that would be a good thing for the Bills to do. However, I doubt seriously whether Mr. Ralph would withstand the whines and rants of Sully and WGR and a small but vocal screamers who will claim any 1st rounder not starting is bust.

 

Since I think the Bills might well allow themselves to pick a "franchise" QB with their first pick I am wondering whether this team would do better picking Luck or Newton.

 

My sense is from watching the highlights and looking at the stats that actually Luck is a more complete QB and even if I am certain the main feature of his game next year is that he will be a rookie, I like him as a more complete QB than the dynamic Newton.

 

However, I am given pause by the fact that basically any rookie QB picked by the Bills is going to have to run for his life behind this OL. Luck appears to be the better QB to me. However, he is a significantly smaller boy than Newton. Further, though Luck dies have very good wheels, they are no where near what Newton has.

 

The sad thing about Luck is that I think he is the real deal but is likely killed by a sack behind this OL pr ;ike HOFer Steve Young or Brett Favre gets run out of town as a bust behind our OL.

 

I think Luck is gonna have a better career overall, but Newton has a far better chance of survival and production with this team.

 

The smart football move would be to use fitzy for the the things a vet can do and allow the rookie to become a vet before we do what we did to JP, Collins, (and even Edwards to some extent) which is to rely on them to start before they are ready and instead use the 1st rounder to build the trenches for this team.

 

However, I am curious if we make the mistake of taking a QB whether folks think that Luck or Newton would be less of an error.

[bowery4]

Luck will go 1st and I seriously doubt we will have the 1st so this is a non issue.

[brenty]

i think neither, because we wont have none of those guys. Luck will stay in one more year, newton will be drafted late 1st round. then the following year bills wont grab luck either.

[VADC Bills]

Actually my sense is that the Bills perform better with a vet QB in 2011 than with either rookie as the Bills O game is going to be defined by however the adventure of OL development turns out (the Bills current OL is at least 1 and a half players away from adequacy and a starting RT talent and a swing guy capable of allowing us to deal with injuries to starters are going to have to be acquired). Even with this acquisition, 2011 is gonna be about building chemistry between the players. Even if Luck or Newton turns out to be the real deal career wise, one thing that the far less physically talented Fitzy brings than these notable rookies is a vets ability to:

 

1. Read NFL Ds and not be fooled by opposing DCs as easily as any rookie QB will be no matter how good he is.

2. Be able to help Hamgartner or Wood change blocking schemes to fit the defense likely blitzes. Until the rookie sees a bunch of games and learns how truly fast the game is as a pro as a;; rookies express wonder at this. The C is gonna be on their own for awhile with any rookie QB.

3. No one can judge right now how quick the rookie's release is going to be (even P. Mannings lightening release was not as fast as a rookie and it would be football foolish to make claims that any rookie QB is simply going to turn inadequate OL talent into marvelous stuff merely by his presence.

 

If the Bill were disciplined enough to sit the rookie QB and let him watch and learn his rookie year that would be a good thing for the Bills to do. However, I doubt seriously whether Mr. Ralph would withstand the whines and rants of Sully and WGR and a small but vocal screamers who will claim any 1st rounder not starting is bust.

 

Since I think the Bills might well allow themselves to pick a "franchise" QB with their first pick I am wondering whether this team would do better picking Luck or Newton.

 

My sense is from watching the highlights and looking at the stats that actually Luck is a more complete QB and even if I am certain the main feature of his game next year is that he will be a rookie, I like him as a more complete QB than the dynamic Newton.

 

However, I am given pause by the fact that basically any rookie QB picked by the Bills is going to have to run for his life behind this OL. Luck appears to be the better QB to me. However, he is a significantly smaller boy than Newton. Further, though Luck dies have very good wheels, they are no where near what Newton has.

 

The sad thing about Luck is that I think he is the real deal but is likely killed by a sack behind this OL pr ;ike HOFer Steve Young or Brett Favre gets run out of town as a bust behind our OL.

 

I think Luck is gonna have a better career overall, but Newton has a far better chance of survival and production with this team.

 

The smart football move would be to use fitzy for the the things a vet can do and allow the rookie to become a vet before we do what we did to JP, Collins, (and even Edwards to some extent) which is to rely on them to start before they are ready and instead use the 1st rounder to build the trenches for this team.

 

However, I am curious if we make the mistake of taking a QB whether folks think that Luck or Newton would be less of an error.

They both can do well in this organization. The Bills will have to build there offensive line so sacks should factor less in the equation. I think with Chan Gailey's history of developing QB's he could bring out the best in both. Both QB's seem to be more gifted than Fitz, Stewart, and Thigpen. Providing they both enter the draft, one of these guys will be available when we pick.

Not sure I agree with the assessment that Luck will be better in the pro's when he hasn't showed to be better in college. Could Luck go undefeated in Auburn this year??? Both these guys will need to develop by knowing their play book and reading defenses but I think Chan will work great with either one.

[Thoner7]

It really is a shame that with the terrible year we are having we wont be rewarded with the top pick. That pick is going to draw a kings ransom in a trade from one of the QB desperate teams out there. Carolina could either take the best prospect by a wide margin, or trade it for multiple high picks in multiple years - literally rebuilding their team with 1 draft pick. But man, were those Cincy and Det wins worth it.

[brenty]

It really is a shame that with the terrible year we are having we wont be rewarded with the top pick. That pick is going to draw a kings ransom in a trade from one of the QB desperate teams out there. Carolina could either take the best prospect by a wide margin, or trade it for multiple high picks in multiple years - literally rebuilding their team with 1 draft pick. But man, were those Cincy and Det wins worth it.

 

OF COURSE THEY WERE WORTH IT!!

 

see what you made me do? i used all caps...

 

I am sorry, i want my team to win no matter what. I actually hope we win out. If that means my team moves to 6th in overall pick, then so be it. But i will never want the bills to lose just so we can have a better pick. I cant wait till we win today! I trust my coach, and front office, to pick the best player that will help us win. I already like their picks so far, and i believe they will shine in the on coming years.

[bisonbrigade]

We have OUR QB! Build a top five defense. Draft LB's and DL.

[markj]

We have OUR QB! Build a top five defense. Draft LB's and DL.

+1

[Astrobot]

If we wanted Newton we can still draft a very strong OT like Marcus Cannon or Jason Pinkston. What it prevents us from getting is one of the best batch of defensive front 7 guys we've had. I'd rather go defense with pick 1 (Dareus, Bowers, Fairley) and O-line.

 

As an aside, the combine will move some OLB's up in the second round, but right now I don't see an OLB I like in RD#2.

[flmike]

Yes, I think people forget that our SB years featured an awesome defense. I think that comes first. Seems that we are scoring points right now. We just can't stop anyone from scoring.

[FreakPop]

To answer the question........Luck, he is the better QB.

[Astrobot]

Luck is the better QB right now. I think Newton has the potential to be even better, but will have a longer break-in period. That's why he'll go to a team later in the first round who already has a Pro Bowl QB in place.

[JohnC]

If we wanted Newton we can still draft a very strong OT like Marcus Cannon or Jason Pinkston. What it prevents us from getting is one of the best batch of defensive front 7 guys we've had. I'd rather go defense with pick 1 (Dareus, Bowers, Fairley) and O-line.

 

As an aside, the combine will move some OLB's up in the second round, but right now I don't see an OLB I like in RD#2.

 

The rebuilding process is certainly more than a one year or two year prcess. If you could draft a Newton (assumption is Luck is not available) and get your franchise qb on the roster then you can start addressing your other numeruos needs.

 

Do you think that the Steelers regret drafting Rothlesberger? I don't. Now he is one of the central components for their long term success. The mistake that many fans have is that they believe the Bills are going to turn it around in one year. That is not going to happen. When you have an opportunity to draft a talented qb with exceptional skills then you should seize the opportunity.

[MikeSpeed]

Newton is the typical great college QB that relies mostly on athletic ability. His threat to run with the ball opens up the passing game. History has shown that this type of QB does not translate well to the NFL. All rookie QBs need to learn to read defenses, but I'm not sure he has ever had a need to try while in college. He's got a strong arm and he has thrown some pretty passes, I just think right now he is more like the old Michael Vick instead of the new Michael Vick.

 

I have not seen enough of Luck to make a comment.

[Thoner7]

OF COURSE THEY WERE WORTH IT!!

 

see what you made me do? i used all caps...

 

I am sorry, i want my team to win no matter what. I actually hope we win out. If that means my team moves to 6th in overall pick, then so be it. But i will never want the bills to lose just so we can have a better pick. I cant wait till we win today! I trust my coach, and front office, to pick the best player that will help us win. I already like their picks so far, and i believe they will shine in the on coming years.

 

Well you know that while you are rooting for them to win some games this year, you are in turn rooting for them to be worse next year, right? You are saying those two wins are more important to the franchise than taking 2 first, a second, and maybe a 3rd in draft picks in a trade.

 

Meanwhile, I want to take my lumps this year and get the opportunity to truely rebuild a winner, either with Luck or the insane amount of draft picks he will bring.

[JohnC]

Newton is the typical great college QB that relies mostly on athletic ability. His threat to run with the ball opens up the passing game. History has shown that this type of QB does not translate well to the NFL. All rookie QBs need to learn to read defenses, but I'm not sure he has ever had a need to try while in college. He's got a strong arm and he has thrown some pretty passes, I just think right now he is more like the old Michael Vick instead of the new Michael Vick.

 

I have not seen enough of Luck to make a comment.

 

Your response was very smart. I agree with you. You probably are not going to get an immediate return on him. The Steelers didn't get a lot of productivity out of Big Ben, although they were winning a lot of games for other reasons. They had a good OL and running game and they usually had an excellent defense.

 

Your Vick comment is also another reason why I would want Newton taken with our first pick. We have a solid qb under which he can develop. That is the best way to bring him along. Aason Rogers is one of the best qb in game. He sat his first few years before he got on the field as a starter. That investment in talent has paid tremendous divididends for the Packers.

 

Drafting a qb such as Newton with our first pick still allows you to address other needs with the remaining picks. In addition, the judicious use of free agency is another method to address the many multiple needs.

[Armchair GM]

Luck is the better QB right now. I think Newton has the potential to be even better, but will have a longer break-in period. That's why he'll go to a team later in the first round who already has a Pro Bowl QB in place.

Exactly why I see the Bills trading out of the top 10 and picking up Newton in mid-late 1st round. He fits the mold for a Gailey QB, and thensome with his size...Let him develop under Fitz for another year or two (rebuilding is a 3 year process). Any which way about it, we have options in the draft this year.