Spiller's Future in Buffalo

[timba]

More than anything, I'm surprised Chan hasn't been able to find an active place for him in the offense. He hasn't had too many opportunities carrying the ball, but the offense has been running the ball sparingly. We HAVE seen the big play ability in the guy. He had runs of 20+ and 10+ (IRRC). He also had the return for a TD earlier this year. Before I get blasted, yes it is typical to expect more out of a top 10 pick, but to say we haven't seen anything and that he's a bust is a bit premature.

[whodat]

Hard to judge anybody when your o line is in a shambles. But don't let it stop you from making grand pronouncements.

 

PTR

+1 :lol:

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

In a few yrs we will have to draft another RB to be a horse as Spiller can never be more than a ten carry per game guy from what I have seen and Chan has shown.

[DanInUticaTampa]

In a few yrs we will have to draft another RB to be a horse as Spiller can never be more than a ten carry per game guy from what I have seen and Chan has shown.

 

I am thinking the same. It won't have to be a high pick, but we will have to have someone replace jackon whether it be a draft pick or a FA. But I don't see the need of drafting a RB in the first 2 rounds unless spiller turns out to be worthless. But I expect him to be productive.

[whodat]

As well it should.

 

Bulaga at 9 looks pretty good in retrospect. Again, thing about this team that drives me crazy is that polls on message boards would result in better first round performance.

 

Spiller is undoubtedly talented, but his skill set is high risk because it often doesn't translate in the NFL. It's almost like he has to reprogram himself not to bounce it to the outside every chance he gets. Thinking too much slows you down.

 

When I look at this roster, I just don't see how we could afford to take the risk on this kind of project. I also don't think these guys appreciated what they had in a young (in terms of downs played) Fred Jackson.

 

For the risk and need, this WAS a wasted pick, pure and simple.

 

did you need change back with that 2cent observation

[Koufax]

I'm very disappointed with Spiller's contribution this year, and I find it alarming that he has only rushed 48 times in ten games, and never more than 7 times in a game. We have a very good back in Freddie, and I know Chan is not willing to give charity touches or developmental snaps, but is playing to win each game. But I still think his performance on the touches he has gotten have warranted a few more.

 

I would like to know what the % of times he lines up in the backfield he is handed the ball compares to Freddie. I don't have any basis for this, but I would guess that he gets the ball a higher percentage of the time (given that he is an inferior blocker to Freddie), and defenses can key on him a little more when he is there and cheat run. But without data that could be completely off base. Either way he needs to be a decent blocker to be in the game more in potential pass situations and have an easier time running.

 

I fully expect Chan to be able to make this happen, and find a way to use his talents, and I think his talents fall in the Reggie Bush to Chris Johnson level in terms of the type of player, but I think the Reggie Bush side of things is a little more likely. Remember Bush has averaged under 4.0 running the ball every year except for his 70 carry 2009, so I don't think that is too high a bar.

 

I am not concerned about his ability to be a big playmaker for us, even though I am disappointed on his contribution this year. If he doesn't contribute a lot in year 2 though it would certainly make this a questionable pick. I am confident he will contribute a lot next year and be a key part of our offense for years to come.

[DanInUticaTampa]

Even though he hasn't gotten a lot of touches, and has looked downright BAD on some runs, I think he is averaging more than 4 yards a carry right now. That stat alone gives me enough hope that he won't be a bust. Personally, there are other players I wish we took instead. Most of them on the defensive side.

[Koufax]

As well it should.

 

Bulaga at 9 looks pretty good in retrospect. Again, thing about this team that drives me crazy is that polls on message boards would result in better first round performance.

 

Spiller is undoubtedly talented, but his skill set is high risk because it often doesn't translate in the NFL. It's almost like he has to reprogram himself not to bounce it to the outside every chance he gets. Thinking too much slows you down.

 

When I look at this roster, I just don't see how we could afford to take the risk on this kind of project. I also don't think these guys appreciated what they had in a young (in terms of downs played) Fred Jackson.

 

For the risk and need, this WAS a wasted pick, pure and simple.

 

Really? You would rather have Bulaga?

 

Often doesn't translate? Who are the comparisons? Chris Johnson and Reggio Bush? Who else is getting compared as major success at major college program for a small back with unbelievable speed? Can you let us know who your comparables are who often don't translate? I'm disappointed with his contribution, but I am not clear why his talent makes him "this kind of project".

 

I don't see the player you want to make a difference on this 2010 team and make us a playoff contender (because 2-10 or 7-9 are similar with our long term goals of building a winning team). Certainly not Bulaga. We all agree with Ngata over Whitner and Orakpo/Matthews over Maybin. This strikes me as a very different pick and player and situation.

 

So who from #10 to #32 do you really want instead?

 

Let's leave the five defensive backs out of it, because we know they wouldn't be popular choices.

 

On the RBs obviously no. Maybe they will be better players, but picking Matthews or Best over CJ on draft day would have given people a heart attack.

 

I just don't see any OL / defensive front 7 guys from 10-32 that are such no brainers that we should never have passed up.

 

Chan still has some 'splaining to do with CJ, but plenty of time to do it, and I think he will be a good football player for us.

[FreakPop]

in 3 seasons fred has 10 td's and avg 54 yards per game. You might consider sitting that guy.

 

He is an average NFL RB and wont be anything more than that.

 

 

Sure am glad they never decided to sit the guy who avg 4.2 YPC 69 YPG and never had more than 11 TDs in any one year, or Thurman might be in the HOF. Plus he never had to deal with 2 first round draft picks ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

All Fred has done is persevered and overcome. His numbers are pretty good and not to far off Thurmans despite having to deal with 2 first round backs playing next to him.

 

CJ was drafted a couple of picks ahead of Lynch, what makes you think he will be better than Lynch, who oh by the way lost his job to Fred.

 

So no I don't think I would consider sitting him, as of right now he's doing a good job, plus he has leadership qualities and that is huge in the locker room.

[BADOLBILZ]

You can't get by in the NFL with just physical gifts.

 

Correct. Not everyone can be as smart and savvy as a Travis Henry, Willis McGahee or Marshawn Lynch. They were bound to get a slow learner sooner or later.

[Billy in 4C]

Guys, we are 2-10. Our 2 wins are against two of the bottom 3 teams in the league. Our line sucks/is in shambles. Be patient.

[manateefan]

That's not how I remember it. Granted, he really blossomed in his 2nd & 3rd year, but he rushed for 880 yrds, was a starter Game 1 vs. Vikings and relied on and delivered huge as the season wore on and into the playoffs vs. Houston & Cinci his first year.

 

We knew we had 'the guy' for the long haul after his rookie season.

O.J. only rushed for 697 yards his first year. And he came to us as the Heisman Trophy winner.

 

did anybody think that some of it has to do with the offensie line?

 

Look at every single running back drafted AFTER Spiller in the first and second rounds. All of them are performing better.

 

The juice had a bad offensive line his first year. The Electric Company and even the receivers were selected for their ability to run block by Saban (look at JD Hill's comments on being recruited.) Rauch didn't know what to do with him.

And our current offensive line is better?

[HumbleAndHungry]

This thread will quickly devolve into a "what a wasted pick" thread. Bottom line, CJ is very talented kid who is a threat to break one every time he touches the ball. He's got amazing speed/quickness. That said, he needs to learn a LOT about the NFL game. You can't get by in the NFL with just physical gifts. If he learns, I envision him being the next Chris Johnson. If not, the next Reggie Bush.

I couldn't have said it any better. Spot on

[Nasty]

I always thought this was a copy cat league, so why don't we use Spiller in the same way the Vikings use Harvin when he is healthy. Harvin does everything and he is a speedster (WR,RB, and KR). Move Spiller around but keep him on the field for the most part somewhere so defenses have to prepare for him...

[Thunderstealer]

Could be another Joe Cribbs- Could Be another Terry Miller.

 

Unlikely he'll be an OJ or a Thurman. HOF backs just don't come around that often.

[1B4IDie]

Good RB's know how to run the ball regardless. He finds ways. Barry Sanders did it. Joseph Addai does a decent job at it. Ryan Grant doesnt have the best o-line and neither does Rashard Mendenhall. Steven Jackson's been doing it for awhile now. No excuses please. If you're drafted at RB in the top 10, then you BETTER produce your rookie year.

You realize that not all the RBs you quoted had a good rookie year?

 

Mendenhall 19 for 58yards 3.1ypc 0TD

Steven Jackson 134 for 673yards 5.0ypc 4TDs

Addai is the only 1000 yard back in his rookie year and his career is hardly considered a success, he is averaging 880 yards a season coming into this year, and the average will go down since he hasn't been able to stay on the field.

 

So maybe you're being a little too critical of Spiller, too early.

 

Mendenhall was benched the second game of his second year and something finally clicked, but he is still averaging about 60 yards a game, not amazing numbers.

People in Pittsburgh were calling for Mendenhall's head in early 2009, those complaints were too early and too critical as well.

[tennesseeboy]

O.J. only rushed for 697 yards his first year. And he came to us as the Heisman Trophy winner.

 

did anybody think that some of it has to do with the offensie line?

 

 

And our current offensive line is better?

I could not agree with you more that NO ONE is going to be great with a bad offensive line. However Jackson is running better than Spiller with the same offensive line. I would expect our first round draft pick to outplay the guy who is holding the position.

[DreReed83]

Guys, we are 2-10. Our 2 wins are against two of the bottom 3 teams in the league. Our line sucks/is in shambles. Be patient.

 

Good RB's find ways to do well even with a porous line. Spiller doesnt even see the field. So don't blame our o-line for his failures.

[K Gun Special]

Sure am glad they never decided to sit the guy who avg 4.2 YPC 69 YPG and never had more than 11 TDs in any one year, or Thurman might be in the HOF. Plus he never had to deal with 2 first round draft picks ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

All Fred has done is persevered and overcome. His numbers are pretty good and not to far off Thurmans despite having to deal with 2 first round backs playing next to him.

 

CJ was drafted a couple of picks ahead of Lynch, what makes you think he will be better than Lynch, who oh by the way lost his job to Fred.

 

So no I don't think I would consider sitting him, as of right now he's doing a good job, plus he has leadership qualities and that is huge in the locker room.

 

 

Whoa whoa whoaaa. 4.2 career avg.

 

In his prime he was 4.8 and 4.9 and gaining 2000 all purpose yards in one of the best offenses ever.

 

Fred is playing behind a bad oline but this isnt a case of him being an all pro RB hampered by a bad oline. He's 30 years old and isnt going to get any better.

 

CJ might not be the answer but Fred isnt either. He's average.

[DreReed83]

You realize that not all the RBs you quoted had a good rookie year?

 

Mendenhall 19 for 58yards 3.1ypc 0TD

Steven Jackson 134 for 673yards 5.0ypc 4TDs

Addai is the only 1000 yard back in his rookie year and his career is hardly considered a success, he is averaging 880 yards a season coming into this year, and the average will go down since he hasn't been able to stay on the field.

 

So maybe you're being a little too critical of Spiller, too early.

 

Mendenhall was benched the second game of his second year and something finally clicked, but he is still averaging about 60 yards a game, not amazing numbers.

People in Pittsburgh were calling for Mendenhall's head in early 2009, those complaints were too early and too critical as well.

 

First of all Spiller was a top 10 pick. A TOP 10 PICK !!! Jackson, Addai, and Mendenhall were taken late first round. You can't compare a lottery pick with a late first round pick. Theres a reason why they're taken late. When you're a top 10 pick in the draft YOU BETTER F'IN PRODUCE. He was taken with the 9th overall pick. 2 spots ahead of where Adrian Peterson went.

 

The dude can't even do anything for our kick return game. He's not running the ball, he's not returning well, he's fragile, and he's sucking it up. NO EXCUSE. NONE!!