/dev/null Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Travis Henry: 2001 2nd rounder. Traded 2005 for 3rd Rounder. 3 seasons Willis McGanee: 2004 1st rounder. Traded 2007 for 2 3rd rounders. 4 seasons Marshawn Lynch: 2007 1st rounder. Traded 2010 for 4th rounder + ? Conditional. 3+ seasons Average draft position somewhere in the 1st round. Average Bills' career about 3.5 years Average trade compensation middle of 3rd round (3.5ish ) Extrapolating past performance to future success (or lack thereof) gives CJ Spiller about 3.5 years in a Bills' uniform and a mid 3rd rounder in return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Travis Henry: 2001 2nd rounder. Traded 2005 for 3rd Rounder. 3 seasons Willis McGanee: 2004 1st rounder. Traded 2007 for 2 3rd rounders. 4 seasons Marshawn Lynch: 2007 1st rounder. Traded 2010 for 4th rounder + ? Conditional. 3+ seasons Average draft position somewhere in the 1st round. Average Bills' career about 3.5 years Average trade compensation middle of 3rd round (3.5ish ) Extrapolating past performance to future success (or lack thereof) gives CJ Spiller about 3.5 years in a Bills' uniform and a mid 3rd rounder in return This also means that we'll draft a running back in 2011. Also, Lynch will break the curve. He will perform far better than McGahee and Henry did with their next team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 2013 is our next scheduled RB draft pick, so there's a little window here for Spiller to grow beloved by the staff. Well, at least we're not letting players go for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Was thinking this whilst watching Magahee for the Ravens. Why can't we turn our first round picks into either serviceable players or, well, first round picks. We could offer the same math for corners as well. Winfield- starter, released... still a starter Clements- starter, released... still a starter Opening a need to draft Leodis... which, what, in 2 years will be released an a need for a top tier corner in the draft sought. We lose a London Fletcher, whether good or not and spend a draft pick on Poz his replacement whilst Fletcher can still start elsewhere and we're still debating whether Poz is better or not. The drafting philosophy makes no sense. I'd be worried Kyle Williams will be released in what 2 years, so we can need draft a DT and hope he's a replacement for Williams, who we hoped would be a replacement for Bannan who we hoped would be a replacement for Pat Williams.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBills51 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Was thinking this whilst watching Magahee for the Ravens. Why can't we turn our first round picks into either serviceable players or, well, first round picks. We could offer the same math for corners as well. Winfield- starter, released... still a starter Clements- starter, released... still a starter Opening a need to draft Leodis... which, what, in 2 years will be released an a need for a top tier corner in the draft sought. We lose a London Fletcher, whether good or not and spend a draft pick on Poz his replacement whilst Fletcher can still start elsewhere and we're still debating whether Poz is better or not. The drafting philosophy makes no sense. I'd be worried Kyle Williams will be released in what 2 years, so we can need draft a DT and hope he's a replacement for Williams, who we hoped would be a replacement for Bannan who we hoped would be a replacement for Pat Williams.... Here is a post I had from about a week ago reiterating your point: Justin Bannan Contract: Ravens - 4 years $8.1 million. Denver - 5 years $22 million. Wouldn't have had to draft Troup in the 2nd as Bannan would rotate with Kyle Williams. Ron Edwards Contract: Chiefs - 4 years $7.5 million. I realize that Ron Edwards was somewhat injury plagued while he was here, but the guy showed a lot of promise when healthy. Who would you rather see rotating at DE right now, Aaron Maybin or Ron Edwards? I believe Edwards would even be an upgrade over Stroud with the way he is playing. Antoine Winfield Contract: Vikings - 6 years $34.8 million. 5 year $36 million extension. You just don't let players like Winfield go, and I don't wanna here the how could we afford him excuse. The Vikings are a small market team yet they manage to keep their star players, and sign free agents. The Vikings have extended such stars as Bryant McKinnie, Antoine Winfield, Kevin Williams, and Pat Williams. Not only have the resigned these players, they have added players like Steve Hutchinson and Jared Allen through free agency. Fact is, the Bills could have kept both Williams and Winfield they just chose not to. Pat Williams Contract: Vikings - 3 years $13 million. 3 year $22 million extension. See above. Even with only these 4 players, the Bills probably wouldn't have made the Marcus Stroud trade, we would have Dwan Edwards, Ron Edwards at DE, Pat Williams at NT, and Williams and Bannan could play either NT or DE. That front 3 rotation wouldn't look all that bad, and the Bills would have been able to focus on our LB's and OL through past drafts. I realize a lot of this is flawed because the Bills didn't play a 3-4 then and this is all in hindsight, but most of these players could also play a 4-3. Also, if the Bills didn't switch to a 3-4, you could even add London Fletcher to this list. Letting players like Clements and Greer walk weren't terrible moves, especially Clements, however the Bills are gonna remain in neutral if they keep letting talent walk and drafting replacements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Nice post, but is even more hindsight biased than most. No one at the time cried tears about losing either Bannan or Edwards. Heck, most of TSW was convinced that Bannan stunk and was only drafted because Tom Donohoe was a racist who preferred white linemen. Seriously, that was the level of discussion on Bannan. Here is a post I had from about a week ago reiterating your point: Justin Bannan Contract: Ravens - 4 years $8.1 million. Denver - 5 years $22 million. Wouldn't have had to draft Troup in the 2nd as Bannan would rotate with Kyle Williams. Ron Edwards Contract: Chiefs - 4 years $7.5 million. I realize that Ron Edwards was somewhat injury plagued while he was here, but the guy showed a lot of promise when healthy. Who would you rather see rotating at DE right now, Aaron Maybin or Ron Edwards? I believe Edwards would even be an upgrade over Stroud with the way he is playing. Antoine Winfield Contract: Vikings - 6 years $34.8 million. 5 year $36 million extension. You just don't let players like Winfield go, and I don't wanna here the how could we afford him excuse. The Vikings are a small market team yet they manage to keep their star players, and sign free agents. The Vikings have extended such stars as Bryant McKinnie, Antoine Winfield, Kevin Williams, and Pat Williams. Not only have the resigned these players, they have added players like Steve Hutchinson and Jared Allen through free agency. Fact is, the Bills could have kept both Williams and Winfield they just chose not to. Pat Williams Contract: Vikings - 3 years $13 million. 3 year $22 million extension. See above. Even with only these 4 players, the Bills probably wouldn't have made the Marcus Stroud trade, we would have Dwan Edwards, Ron Edwards at DE, Pat Williams at NT, and Williams and Bannan could play either NT or DE. That front 3 rotation wouldn't look all that bad, and the Bills would have been able to focus on our LB's and OL through past drafts. I realize a lot of this is flawed because the Bills didn't play a 3-4 then and this is all in hindsight, but most of these players could also play a 4-3. Also, if the Bills didn't switch to a 3-4, you could even add London Fletcher to this list. Letting players like Clements and Greer walk weren't terrible moves, especially Clements, however the Bills are gonna remain in neutral if they keep letting talent walk and drafting replacements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBills51 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Nice post, but is even more hindsight biased than most. No one at the time cried tears about losing either Bannan or Edwards. Heck, most of TSW was convinced that Bannan stunk and was only drafted because Tom Donohoe was a racist who preferred white linemen. Seriously, that was the level of discussion on Bannan. I agree with your thoughts on Bannan, but he just wasn't a flashy enough player to really garner respect from the fans. I believe that most NFL front offices, even at the time, respected what he brought to the table. While Edwards was injury prone he showed flashes when healthy and seeing as we had just let Pat Williams walk the year before he wouldn't have been a bad player to re-sign. Seeing as we were playing a 4-3 at the time, there are 3 players who should have never been let go....London Fletcher, Pat Williams and Antoine Winfield or Jabari Greer. You're probably gonna say that Fletcher made all of his tackles downfield, but I think that was somewhat exaggerated by fans. Successful franchises do not let those first 3 players walk without having any replacement in sight. I get where you coming from on the whole fan aspect regarding Bannan and Edwards, but that is why we are fans. Bannan and Edwards haven't become serviceable players just because they left the Bills, they both had enough talent to play the game at an above average level and this should have been recognized by the Bills. We should have spent less time toying with Bannan as an OL and more time giving the guy a shot at DT. I also don't believe that either player is a solid starter, but if you look at my post I said that I wouldn't mind seeing them rotate at their respective positions, and this would have saved us some draft picks over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Willis McGanee: 2004 1st rounder. Traded 2007 for 2 3rd rounders. 4 seasons Don't forget he was already out for the year when he was drafted so really only 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 (edited) Well put, DaBills. I agree that many players can be quite serviceable, and that sometimes shows up when they go elsewhere. Truth is, many players become the object of obsessive dislike that leads to a herd mentality.... from Glenn Parker and Dusty Ziegler to Justin Bannan... Kelsay is actually in that group too, though he may deserve it. I actually would have preferred to keep London Fletcher. As much as it would be nice for Poz to suddenly turn into Shane Conlan (actually, his durabilty rivals Conlan's, but that is another story), it would have been better to keep Fletch and use that pick for another purpose. But there I go being all hind-sighty myself. Edited October 5, 2010 by RJ (not THAT RJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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