Why the NFL wouuld need to be careful if it left Buffalo

[Hplarrm]

The experiences of the last few decades have demonstrated in the real world there are a number of things which are quite useful and in fact essential to starting a competing football league to the NFL, Mostly the efforts are failures in an of themselves (the USFL or the XFL) and in one case this effort (the AFL) was a granf success in that it forced the NFL to open its doors to competing owners like Mr. Ralph and the huge at the time but now in Mr. Ralph's lifetime incredibly small investment of 10s of thousands turned into what is approaching a billion dollar property.

 

Any new effort would have to weave together an incredible mosaic of assets in order to survive.

 

An empty fanbase of approaching 50,000 folks who are ready and willing to buy NFL season tickets, a stadium owned by the County and now sitting empty, a the real cash cow for the NFL, the TV networks having a seeming insatiable need to televise even a carwreck like the XFL all sitting out there.

 

An abandoned Buffalo would be an incredible asset for someone trying to weave together the mosaic.

 

Would this effort fail to create a surviving league?

 

Almost certainly.

 

However, what the real world has shown us is several things.

 

1. Even when these efforts are failures in terms of creating a sustainable economic entity, the failures are not only survivable for the cash behind the new effort (the Donald was a big driver behind the USFL) but in fact the driver can make out like a bandit from the failed effort (the MacMahon where the the wife of this team is riding the Tea Party impetus to where she appears about to beat the GOP standard bearer for the GOP nomination and then she will run against the badly wounded Dem for the Senate seat.

 

2. The efforts whether abject failures like the USFL or successes like the AFL have the effect of spurring the old American standby called competition and one effect either way is a huge increase in salaries and power for the players (remember Namath's contract and Jimbo's contract which even though the opposing league was either subsumed or vanquished, the players laughed all the way to the bank.

 

3. There is new capital in town and in the end cash rules.

 

In the old days source of capital like George Halas ran the ship of state and for decades through nickels around like they were manhole covers (as Ditka once said about Halas). However, in the new world sources of pretty large pools of capital capable of not simply owning a team but even starting a league are around.

 

A lot would depend on timing.

 

However, if the NFL were to abandon Buffalo leaving 40,000+ pissed off folks willing to buy season tickets, an empty stadium owned by Erie County, and a sad but compelling story of the car wreck of almost a million folks left crying by the NFL, Buffalo would be place #1 for the new USFL, new XFL, and yes new AFL to set up a franchise for this new entity.

 

Would it be just as good as the old NFL?

 

No way whatsoever.

 

However, would it be as much of flaming carwreck at the XFL to attract network money to get eyeballs looking at the new league?

 

Not a problem likely.

 

In fact, by involving a Buffalo franchise and working as hard as the MacMahon's worked to create a spectacle (they did actually attract athletes who with names like Me So Horny stuck on their jerseys actually got jobs in the NFL) they would build a model which claimed to return to the days when the NFL was a real football league, it would be interesting.

 

What Buffalo has and no one can take away is its 40 year history as an NFL town and a rabid fan base which even if the NFL is choosing between new money in some sunbelt city or maintaining the bird in the hand of the profitable take that is the Buffalo Bills franchise.

 

This equation might not even be a close call between the entry fee which will be paid by the new franchise and what the Buffalo Bills deliver to the NFL (actually I think that as a whole what the Bills deliver is a bird in the hand which would outpace a new entry).

 

However, were the NFL to simply abandon the Buffalo market, it would simply leave a developed market for any new attempt at a league to suck up and scrape up the money that the NFL just walked away from.

 

Yes, by definition the amount of cash from a WNY franchise is less than the amount of cash in whatever the new franchise is.

 

However, the amount of cash walked away from by the NFL is not insubstantial and really offers a nice piece for a new competitive effort to make a start.

 

From making an effort to attract the unused money to the new product by linking to the old tradition (hence the rhyme of the Buffalo Thrills), occupying the former Rich stadium (heck if Ralph is dead keep the name to link to the NFL tradition), and of likely great importance form an alliance with the NFLPA (yes it will compete with the NFL product but if one thing that successful efforts like the AFL showed us and failed efforts like the USFL showed us the winner in both these efforts were the players as competition drove up the salaries of the players.

 

In fact, if the timing of Mr. Ralph's death were to coincide with a pitch renegotiation battle over the CBA, one might have a situation where a ton of player talent is left either as free agents without a contract or the NFL stops paying and a bunch of well capitalized and organized players are free to set up a competing league which will drive up player salaries.

 

In fact, I think the question arises that if the NFL owners lock the players out how long will it take for Troy Vincent, Takeo Spikes and other rich players who went and got Ivy League business education to threaten or try to start their own league seeking TV networks as a cash cow and driving up the cost of players as a side effect.

 

If such a move were to coincide with Buffalo being on the market, the NFL would be in far greater danger for the new competition to be able to steal from the tradition created (and then abandoned) by the NFL.

 

The thing folks in WNY have to realize (and may not figure this out until the NFL leaves) is that the last 40 years of tradition and the 100s of millions of dollars of bird in the hand wealth of a Buffalo franchise is an asset which the NFL would need to think twice (or 3 or more times) about before it abandoned this asset for someone else to sweeo in and try to use it.

 

My sense is that particularly with the likely NFL expansion targets to be eyeballs in Mexico City, Japan, Europe and elsewhere, having a tie to an Americana asset like the Buffalo Bills is not insubstantial. Even worse for the NFL, to create pictures and films of a crying town abandoned by the NFL is not the story the league wants when it works to sell new franchises in Mexico City.

 

I really doubt it will make market sense for the NFL to abandon WNY and if it does, the opportunity created by this abandonment will create a risky situation but it is risk that is an essential part of reward.

 

WNY;s elected leaders actually are loathe to take risks with the identity of the region, but if the NFL were to leave it would force this risk taking on WNY's leaders whether they like it or not.

[JohnC]

The experiences of the last few decades have demonstrated in the real world there are a number of things which are quite useful and in fact essential to starting a competing football league to the NFL, Mostly the efforts are failures in an of themselves (the USFL or the XFL) and in one case this effort (the AFL) was a granf success in that it forced the NFL to open its doors to competing owners like Mr. Ralph and the huge at the time but now in Mr. Ralph's lifetime incredibly small investment of 10s of thousands turned into what is approaching a billion dollar property.

 

Any new effort would have to weave together an incredible mosaic of assets in order to survive.

 

An empty fanbase of approaching 50,000 folks who are ready and willing to buy NFL season tickets, a stadium owned by the County and now sitting empty, a the real cash cow for the NFL, the TV networks having a seeming insatiable need to televise even a carwreck like the XFL all sitting out there.

 

An abandoned Buffalo would be an incredible asset for someone trying to weave together the mosaic.

 

Would this effort fail to create a surviving league?

 

Almost certainly.

 

However, what the real world has shown us is several things.

 

1. Even when these efforts are failures in terms of creating a sustainable economic entity, the failures are not only survivable for the cash behind the new effort (the Donald was a big driver behind the USFL) but in fact the driver can make out like a bandit from the failed effort (the MacMahon where the the wife of this team is riding the Tea Party impetus to where she appears about to beat the GOP standard bearer for the GOP nomination and then she will run against the badly wounded Dem for the Senate seat.

 

2. The efforts whether abject failures like the USFL or successes like the AFL have the effect of spurring the old American standby called competition and one effect either way is a huge increase in salaries and power for the players (remember Namath's contract and Jimbo's contract which even though the opposing league was either subsumed or vanquished, the players laughed all the way to the bank.

 

3. There is new capital in town and in the end cash rules.

 

In the old days source of capital like George Halas ran the ship of state and for decades through nickels around like they were manhole covers (as Ditka once said about Halas). However, in the new world sources of pretty large pools of capital capable of not simply owning a team but even starting a league are around.

 

A lot would depend on timing.

 

However, if the NFL were to abandon Buffalo leaving 40,000+ pissed off folks willing to buy season tickets, an empty stadium owned by Erie County, and a sad but compelling story of the car wreck of almost a million folks left crying by the NFL, Buffalo would be place #1 for the new USFL, new XFL, and yes new AFL to set up a franchise for this new entity.

 

Would it be just as good as the old NFL?

 

No way whatsoever.

 

However, would it be as much of flaming carwreck at the XFL to attract network money to get eyeballs looking at the new league?

 

Not a problem likely.

 

In fact, by involving a Buffalo franchise and working as hard as the MacMahon's worked to create a spectacle (they did actually attract athletes who with names like Me So Horny stuck on their jerseys actually got jobs in the NFL) they would build a model which claimed to return to the days when the NFL was a real football league, it would be interesting.

 

What Buffalo has and no one can take away is its 40 year history as an NFL town and a rabid fan base which even if the NFL is choosing between new money in some sunbelt city or maintaining the bird in the hand of the profitable take that is the Buffalo Bills franchise.

 

This equation might not even be a close call between the entry fee which will be paid by the new franchise and what the Buffalo Bills deliver to the NFL (actually I think that as a whole what the Bills deliver is a bird in the hand which would outpace a new entry).

 

However, were the NFL to simply abandon the Buffalo market, it would simply leave a developed market for any new attempt at a league to suck up and scrape up the money that the NFL just walked away from.

 

Yes, by definition the amount of cash from a WNY franchise is less than the amount of cash in whatever the new franchise is.

 

However, the amount of cash walked away from by the NFL is not insubstantial and really offers a nice piece for a new competitive effort to make a start.

 

From making an effort to attract the unused money to the new product by linking to the old tradition (hence the rhyme of the Buffalo Thrills), occupying the former Rich stadium (heck if Ralph is dead keep the name to link to the NFL tradition), and of likely great importance form an alliance with the NFLPA (yes it will compete with the NFL product but if one thing that successful efforts like the AFL showed us and failed efforts like the USFL showed us the winner in both these efforts were the players as competition drove up the salaries of the players.

 

In fact, if the timing of Mr. Ralph's death were to coincide with a pitch renegotiation battle over the CBA, one might have a situation where a ton of player talent is left either as free agents without a contract or the NFL stops paying and a bunch of well capitalized and organized players are free to set up a competing league which will drive up player salaries.

 

In fact, I think the question arises that if the NFL owners lock the players out how long will it take for Troy Vincent, Takeo Spikes and other rich players who went and got Ivy League business education to threaten or try to start their own league seeking TV networks as a cash cow and driving up the cost of players as a side effect.

 

If such a move were to coincide with Buffalo being on the market, the NFL would be in far greater danger for the new competition to be able to steal from the tradition created (and then abandoned) by the NFL.

 

The thing folks in WNY have to realize (and may not figure this out until the NFL leaves) is that the last 40 years of tradition and the 100s of millions of dollars of bird in the hand wealth of a Buffalo franchise is an asset which the NFL would need to think twice (or 3 or more times) about before it abandoned this asset for someone else to sweeo in and try to use it.

 

My sense is that particularly with the likely NFL expansion targets to be eyeballs in Mexico City, Japan, Europe and elsewhere, having a tie to an Americana asset like the Buffalo Bills is not insubstantial. Even worse for the NFL, to create pictures and films of a crying town abandoned by the NFL is not the story the league wants when it works to sell new franchises in Mexico City.

 

I really doubt it will make market sense for the NFL to abandon WNY and if it does, the opportunity created by this abandonment will create a risky situation but it is risk that is an essential part of reward.

 

WNY;s elected leaders actually are loathe to take risks with the identity of the region, but if the NFL were to leave it would force this risk taking on WNY's leaders whether they like it or not.

 

If the Bills left Buffalo there will never again be a professional football team in Buffalo. When the NBA Buffalo Braves were sold and moved to another city professional basketball never returned. It is as simple as that.

[jj____]

this is probably the most poorly written thing i've read on this dumb-assery of a messageboard. first a lets sign jeff !@#$ing george thread and now this heap of garbage. you start off your argument saying well 50,000 people wont be buying season tickets if they move. WHAT NO WAY HOW DID YOU FIGURE THIS OUT!? do you honestly think they're going to move to a market of anything less?

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

If the Bills left Buffalo there will never again be a professional football team in Buffalo. When the NBA Buffalo Braves were sold and moved to another city professional basketball never returned. It is as simple as that.

 

 

I am afraid John is right on this. It is not doom and gloom but a realization that the days when Buffalo could attract a top-tier professional sports team from scratch are long gone. There are a bunch of fans in the area, sure, but looked at by a hard-eyed outsider with demographic info at hand, Buffalo is no more attractive than Toledo, Columbus, Akron, (towns picked at random, your mileage may vary) or any other number of old industrial towns. Do note that even though the UFL claimed that it was going to put its teams in underserved markets, it still went for NY and the usual sun belt suspects to place its teams. I also do not think it likely that the NFL will do for Buffalo what it did for Cleveland, and guarantee an expansion team.

 

I want the Bills to stay in Buffalo forever, and I am enough of a compulsive optimist to think that there are factors that could keep them there. To try to salve our feelings in advance by believing that the Bills could be replaced by another pro football team, however, is a useless exercise.

[richNjoisy]

If the Bills left Buffalo there will never again be a professional football team in Buffalo. When the NBA Buffalo Braves were sold and moved to another city professional basketball never returned. It is as simple as that.

 

I was able to pop up this comparison using a tool at:

 

http://apps.money.cnn.com/bestplaces_2010/...mp;x=22&y=8

State income

tax rate Auto insurance

sales tax (lowest-highest) premiums job growth

Buffalo, NY $39,500 4.00% 4.00%-8.97% N.A. -6.92%

Cleveland, OH $39,903 5.50% 0.62%-6.24% $1,165 -8.11%

 

I only used this to point out that Cleveland - which has a larger population than Buffalo (433K to 300K) lost and then regained their NFL team. The Bills have been to 4 super bowls which makes them MORE well known. So, this is one reason it is not a slam dunk that they would not get a new team. But before they have to come back, they would have to leave. I agree with the thread-starter here that although economics obviously are the main factor to a team going or staying, the Bills WITHOUT ANY DOUBT have a large and very loyal fan base. We have stunk for over a decade and still this is true. Raising ticket prices would reduce some of the numbers but most, like me, would tighten our belts and still buy tickets and jackets and tee shirts and beer (notice I did not cut back on beer). In this current economy, how many savvy businessmen do you think would fold with a hand like that to draw five new cards? Sure, they MIGHT be able to get a sweet deal from a rival city but how many cities out there are willing and able to fork over enough public cash to sweetheart a deal enough for someone to move the team?

 

I could go on and on but we have enough to worry about folks - the economy, the wars, the environment, 10 years of losing Bills football, etc etc without adding on fearful conjecture about a possible move. Let tomorrow worry for itself. Today has enough worries.

 

Go Bills!

 

-RichNJoisy

(PS: Rich N Rev are one big step closer to moving home----we are in the process of buying land right on Lake Ontario). We are timing the closing with the Home Opener. (of course))

[Wing Man]

As nice a city and as good a people are in Buffalo, the city was 2d in the nation in population decline in percentage terms last decade (Syracuse 3d, Rochester 8th). Corporate interests or members of the corporate community, such as those which might take over the Bills in future years, are interested in profit maximization, often recklessly. Local commitment and ownership will be key to keeping the Bills in Buffalo. If a deal can't be struck and other opportunities present, the Bills might surely move faster than you can say Mayflower.

[Hplarrm]

I was able to pop up this comparison using a tool at:

 

http://apps.money.cnn.com/bestplaces_2010/...mp;x=22&y=8

State income

tax rate Auto insurance

sales tax (lowest-highest) premiums job growth

Buffalo, NY $39,500 4.00% 4.00%-8.97% N.A. -6.92%

Cleveland, OH $39,903 5.50% 0.62%-6.24% $1,165 -8.11%

 

I only used this to point out that Cleveland - which has a larger population than Buffalo (433K to 300K) lost and then regained their NFL team. The Bills have been to 4 super bowls which makes them MORE well known. So, this is one reason it is not a slam dunk that they would not get a new team. But before they have to come back, they would have to leave. I agree with the thread-starter here that although economics obviously are the main factor to a team going or staying, the Bills WITHOUT ANY DOUBT have a large and very loyal fan base. We have stunk for over a decade and still this is true. Raising ticket prices would reduce some of the numbers but most, like me, would tighten our belts and still buy tickets and jackets and tee shirts and beer (notice I did not cut back on beer). In this current economy, how many savvy businessmen do you think would fold with a hand like that to draw five new cards? Sure, they MIGHT be able to get a sweet deal from a rival city but how many cities out there are willing and able to fork over enough public cash to sweetheart a deal enough for someone to move the team?

 

I could go on and on but we have enough to worry about folks - the economy, the wars, the environment, 10 years of losing Bills football, etc etc without adding on fearful conjecture about a possible move. Let tomorrow worry for itself. Today has enough worries.

 

Go Bills!

 

-RichNJoisy

(PS: Rich N Rev are one big step closer to moving home----we are in the process of buying land right on Lake Ontario). We are timing the closing with the Home Opener. (of course))

Congrats Rich on your real estate dealings. i hope it works out for you and yours.

 

I think the Bills/Cleveland comparison is an interesting thing not so much due to the demographics but because consideration of this case actually shows how demographics and certainly not local electoral leadership were not the key factors in what happened.

 

As best as I can tell, if there was one key to point at it would have been the partial anti-trust exemption enjoyed by the NFL and the potential impacts of this move on how 2 senators and a bunch of house members would have played with that. I suspect if the only team playing games in NYS were to abandon the city, the risks would emerge as to the anti-trust exemption and the NFL would do what it deemed necessary to protect that. Whether that outcome would be to Buffalo fans benefit remains to be seen, but the simple case is that no Senator wants it on their resume which they tote to election day that they get labeled in WNY as not fighting for WNY interests.

 

The other factor which I think will come into play is that the NFL reaction to dealing with a potential Bills move is gonna be what generates the most cash for the NFL. I think most brains are actually locked into an old mode which falsely looks at the driver as what is in the interest of the individual team owner like an Art Modell or Bob Irsay. However, I think it became clear with the last CBA that this is old thinking. The NFL long ran kicking and screaming from the individual model when the NFLPA threatened to dissolve itself. Rather than competing in a free market, the NFL saw that there was more money to be made for the individual team owner in a more socialistic system of the CBA.

 

This was underscored in the last CBA negotiation where Gene Upshaw dictated that the final deal would not only have to give a share of all assets (not simply designated assets to the players) but that share needed to start with a 6 (60.5%) was the final deal).

 

I think it is a false conclusion that the Bills will have to be sold to the highest bidder without regard to who that bidder might be. In act it will have to be sold to the highest "qualified" bidder which will be determined by 75% of the current owners agreeing (Osana Bin Laden and Rush Limbaugh need not apply for example no matter how much money they could muster.

 

It really all depends on what is happening when Mr. Ralph kicks the bucket. my guess is if this were to happen at a time when a lot of players were free to play in the free market due to a lockout that one would see the NFLPA move to create more competition for players contracts to increase their take. If the WNY market were open because the NFL walked away then they would be foolish not to exploit the market.

[Hplarrm]

As nice a city and as good a people are in Buffalo, the city was 2d in the nation in population decline in percentage terms last decade (Syracuse 3d, Rochester 8th). Corporate interests or members of the corporate community, such as those which might take over the Bills in future years, are interested in profit maximization, often recklessly. Local commitment and ownership will be key to keeping the Bills in Buffalo. If a deal can't be struck and other opportunities present, the Bills might surely move faster than you can say Mayflower.

You are exactly right that what the NFL would be interested in is profit maximization.

 

Profit maximization comes from exploiting the marketplace.

 

In your grandmother's NFL where decision-making was made or driven by individual team owners prior to the first and second CBAs the marketplace was individual municipalities.

 

Under the new NFL where players became partners in the first CBA and arguably the majority partners under the current CBA where they commanded 60.5% of the total gross revenues the market is the eyeballs commanded by the ultimate cash cow the networks.

 

This plays to WNY's advantage as though flat out Buffalo can not compete with other Sunbelt cities in terms of cash delivery too the individual owner, the actual marketplace is the eyeballs of the entire world.Teams can be anywhere because the real money comes from the broadcast of the story. The worth of the Bills come from its connection to the 40 years of history as part of the story and what new eyeballs in Mexico City, Tokyo, or Europe would be joining.

 

If you asked the NFL whether they would want to exploit the Portland, LA, Buffalo markets, the obvious answer for profit maximization is all of them.

[Coach55]

Okay - if you were to start a rival league (w/ Buffalo) - you would need to go where the NFL is not:

 

Cities w/o NFL and Metro population in mm and rank set up by division. It could be done.

 

 

California

Los Angeles (2) - 12.3mm

San Bernadino (13) - 3.2mm

San Jose (28) - 1.7mm

Sacramento (27) - 1.8mm

 

Pacific

San Antonio (29) - 1.7mm

Las Vegas (36) - 1.3mm

Portland (25) - 1.9mm

Austin (40) - 1.2mm

 

North

Providence (32) - 1.6mm

Columbus (31) - 1.6mm

Virginia Beach (33) - 1.6mm

Buffalo (42) - 1.2mm

 

Atlantic

Nashville (39) - 1.3mm

Orlando (30) - 1.6mm

Memphis (41) - 1.2mm

Louisville (43) - 1.2mm

[BillsWearPajamas]

this is probably the most poorly written thing i've read on this dumb-assery of a messageboard. first a lets sign jeff !@#$ing george thread and now this heap of garbage. you start off your argument saying well 50,000 people wont be buying season tickets if they move. WHAT NO WAY HOW DID YOU FIGURE THIS OUT!? do you honestly think they're going to move to a market of anything less?

 

I know.

 

Being a fan of a persistent (if not permanent) losing team can really mess up your head. I think we're starting to see the 'homeritus' level reach a critical stage now. Delusion has really set in. Shock therapy might be the only hope for many here.

 

The team, much like it's owner, is in a slow, painful death spiral. But you keep buying those ugly jerseys...

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Since there will be no such league, this listing of cities only shows how unlikely it is that Buffalo would ever get another franchise. Look at all those areas in more economically vibrant sectors of the country without an NFL team.

 

Cling to the Bills, my friends. They are all we will ever get.

 

 

Okay - if you were to start a rival league (w/ Buffalo) - you would need to go where the NFL is not:

 

Cities w/o NFL and Metro population in mm and rank set up by division. It could be done.

 

 

California

Los Angeles (2) - 12.3mm

San Bernadino (13) - 3.2mm

San Jose (28) - 1.7mm

Sacramento (27) - 1.8mm

 

Pacific

San Antonio (29) - 1.7mm

Las Vegas (36) - 1.3mm

Portland (25) - 1.9mm

Austin (40) - 1.2mm

 

North

Providence (32) - 1.6mm

Columbus (31) - 1.6mm

Virginia Beach (33) - 1.6mm

Buffalo (42) - 1.2mm

 

Atlantic

Nashville (39) - 1.3mm

Orlando (30) - 1.6mm

Memphis (41) - 1.2mm

Louisville (43) - 1.2mm

[Hplarrm]

Since there will be no such league, this listing of cities only shows how unlikely it is that Buffalo would ever get another franchise. Look at all those areas in more economically vibrant sectors of the country without an NFL team.

 

Cling to the Bills, my friends. They are all we will ever get.

Again its about profit maximization.

 

The real money (and thus the market) is in the TV audience and not from the stadium proceeds.

 

Stadiums and individual markets are an important additional revenue stream, but its all about profit maximization so follow the money.

 

It really is amazing that folks are so strident about comparing individual municipalities and then want to claim its all about the profits.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Beg pardon? I have no idea what stridency you see in the comments, nor do I see a contradiction in what I have said, which is that Buffalo, despite its passionate fans, is not a large or attractive enough market for a professional team. That is not about stadium attendance or TV issues alone, but covers both. As a shrinking metro area and smallish TV market, Buffalo is fortunate to have the team that it does, but would not make the cut today. That does not mean the team has to leave (God forbid!) but simply a recognition that Buffalo in 1959 and Buffalo in 2010 are vastly different places from a demographic, economic, and even an aesthetic perspective.

 

This is rather like the argument that alumni of many colleges would not actually be qualified for admittance today, reflecting an awareness of changing times. Is it that hard to understand?

 

 

 

Again its about profit maximization.

 

The real money (and thus the market) is in the TV audience and not from the stadium proceeds.

 

Stadiums and individual markets are an important additional revenue stream, but its all about profit maximization so follow the money.

 

It really is amazing that folks are so strident about comparing individual municipalities and then want to claim its all about the profits.

[Dr. Fong]

Since there will be no such league, this listing of cities only shows how unlikely it is that Buffalo would ever get another franchise. Look at all those areas in more economically vibrant sectors of the country without an NFL team.

 

Cling to the Bills, my friends. They are all we will ever get.

 

 

I think the factor you're leaving out of that equation is Buffalo is a proven football market with a nationwide fan base. Living in Virginia Beach I can tell you for sure that putting a team here would be nothing more than a crap shoot and would not spark any interest on the national level. I suspect the same is true for most of the cities on that list.

 

Having said that what an interesting list. I know it's nothing more than someone's pipe dream version, but it really would be a cool league.

[yungmack]

Small quibble: Nashville already has an NFL team.

 

And several of the cities mentioned are already tied to an NFL team, making it extremely difficult to bring in another franchise (San Jose for example would impinge on both the Niners and Raiders "territory").

 

Personally, I think the NFL has peaked along with the US. What's ahead for both is a long decline as the US becomes poorer and its population stabilizes and shrinks. Twenty years from now, most of the US will be able to say something like, "We're all Buffalo (or Cleveland, Detroit, etc) now."

[JohnC]

Beg pardon? I have no idea what stridency you see in the comments, nor do I see a contradiction in what I have said, which is that Buffalo, despite its passionate fans, is not a large or attractive enough market for a professional team. That is not about stadium attendance or TV issues alone, but covers both. As a shrinking metro area and smallish TV market, Buffalo is fortunate to have the team that it does, but would not make the cut today. That does not mean the team has to leave (God forbid!) but simply a recognition that Buffalo in 1959 and Buffalo in 2010 are vastly different places from a demographic, economic, and even an aesthetic perspective.

 

This is rather like the argument that alumni of many colleges would not actually be qualified for admittance today, reflecting an awareness of changing times. Is it that hard to understand?

 

Your responses on this topic are not strident; they are factual and insightful. Some people are very uncomfortable discussing the precarious status of our franchise. That is understandable since the owner is in his 90s and is not willing to divulge his intentions on how his estate is going to be handled.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Excellent points. I agree that the NFL has peaked. The automatic growth in TV money to cover all sins is coming to an end, and the next decades will be about managing decline.

 

 

Small quibble: Nashville already has an NFL team.

 

And several of the cities mentioned are already tied to an NFL team, making it extremely difficult to bring in another franchise (San Jose for example would impinge on both the Niners and Raiders "territory").

 

Personally, I think the NFL has peaked along with the US. What's ahead for both is a long decline as the US becomes poorer and its population stabilizes and shrinks. Twenty years from now, most of the US will be able to say something like, "We're all Buffalo (or Cleveland, Detroit, etc) now."

[JohnC]

Small quibble: Nashville already has an NFL team.

 

And several of the cities mentioned are already tied to an NFL team, making it extremely difficult to bring in another franchise (San Jose for example would impinge on both the Niners and Raiders "territory").

 

Personally, I think the NFL has peaked along with the US. What's ahead for both is a long decline as the US becomes poorer and its population stabilizes and shrinks. Twenty years from now, most of the US will be able to say something like, "We're all Buffalo (or Cleveland, Detroit, etc) now."

 

Your perspective on the issue of managing declinging revenues is very keen. There is nothing new about businesses, local and federal governments and foreign governments struggling to manage the very challenging slowing of growth. Look at what is going on in Eurogpe, especially Greece. When expenditures don't keep pace with revenues there will come a point where the crisis of reality will have to be faced.

 

Professional sports have for more than a decade or two been on an unsustainable trajectory. TV revenue was the underpinning of professional and collegiate sports. Now the trend line has been lowered and the recipients of those funds need to adjust.

 

The NFL re-opened its labor agreement to deal with the issue sooner rather than later. The NFL is not the only sports league to face the upcoming financial crunch if structural changes are not made in how the revenue is distributed. The NBA is in a financial crisis. Half the teams are losing money. The LeBron James saga was a reflection on how certain sized markets can't keep up with bigger and richer sized markets. The NHL went on a lockout to force the players and its union to deal with the financial realities of the market.

 

As RJ noted if Buffalo team is moved there will be little opportunity to get back into the league. That is the reality of the market and the reality of business. Some people find it troubling to deal with that marketplace cold reality.

[Hplarrm]

Sorry that the stridency comment was directly linked as a reply to your note as it was actually probably the stridency of the post you were replying to that struck me as over the top. That post declared there would never be another professional football team in Buffalo (as though anyone can see the future with absolute certainty). This totally ignores the asset which Buffalo has that it has enjoyed having an NFL team for several decades.

 

I think that we will likely retain the Bills because the marketplace is not individual municipalities but the marketplace is the TV viewing audience. Our 40 years of history is part of the storytelling which makes the product more real to the marketplace and to throw away an important part of what your selling is bad business.

 

Add to that the business ramifications of endangering the partial anti-trust exemption.

 

Even if the NFL were to choose to throw away this asset, the idea that there is no way we get a franchise back when for anyone who chooses to follow the path which Mr. Ralph, the Donald, the MacMahon followed of starting a competing league would have to be very tempted to try to start their league with a Buffalo franchise in order to harvest the 40 years of WNY market development would make sense.

 

Its not hard at all to understand the argument that if 2010 conditions existed in 1959 the different choices would have been made in founding the AFL and Buffalo would not have gotten a team. I totally agree.

 

However, I think one would also understand that if lets say the NFL abandoned Buffalo (though I doubt this would suit NFL profit maximization to do this though it might suit Ralph's estates interests to do this- but it seems clear that Ralph's estate would be bound by the contractual pledges Ralph made and one of those is that the team would only be sold to someone judged qualified by 75% of the other owners- if someone wants to argue that Ralph's estate could sell to Osana bin Laden or Rush Limbaugh if they are the high bidder then they should feel free to argue that) that this abandonment would not occur in 1959 but 2010 or later.

 

If the Bills left there is no way a team would come here given 2010 demographics in the 1959 situation. However, I am arguing that the truth is not only 2010 demographics but the 2010 situation. meaning any new team here would reap the benefits of a lot of marketing to this area that has built up a habit of slavish devotion to our areas football team.

 

If a new league came along, a Buffalo franchise would get not only its share of the joint TV money (and with its connection to the old NFL history Buffalo's presence in a new league would give it an added degree of credibility and good storytelling), but if it merely garnered half the season ticket sales, sales of local commercials to local businesses that currently do commercials around Bills games, and harvesting merely half of what the Bills benefit from now, would make a Buffalo franchise in any new pro football league a valuable commodity.

 

Would a new league be possible? Sure, new pro football leagues have popped up with the XFL, Arena League, USFL and AFL with some frequency. My sense is that the NFL abandoning WNY (though I doubt this would make profit maximization sense for the NFL to do) would make this general idea even more possible.

 

Beg pardon? I have no idea what stridency you see in the comments, nor do I see a contradiction in what I have said, which is that Buffalo, despite its passionate fans, is not a large or attractive enough market for a professional team. That is not about stadium attendance or TV issues alone, but covers both. As a shrinking metro area and smallish TV market, Buffalo is fortunate to have the team that it does, but would not make the cut today. That does not mean the team has to leave (God forbid!) but simply a recognition that Buffalo in 1959 and Buffalo in 2010 are vastly different places from a demographic, economic, and even an aesthetic perspective.

 

This is rather like the argument that alumni of many colleges would not actually be qualified for admittance today, reflecting an awareness of changing times. Is it that hard to understand?

[Trader]

As nice a city and as good a people are in Buffalo, the city was 2d in the nation in population decline in percentage terms last decade (Syracuse 3d, Rochester 8th). Corporate interests or members of the corporate community, such as those which might take over the Bills in future years, are interested in profit maximization, often recklessly. Local commitment and ownership will be key to keeping the Bills in Buffalo. If a deal can't be struck and other opportunities present, the Bills might surely move faster than you can say Mayflower.

 

You hit the nail on the head wingman. The problem with Buffalo is that it's citizens have left Buffalo not the Bills are leaving Buffalo. It appears likely that the Bills just may follow the citizens out of town. If they do the NFL is not returning.

Some other minor league might though. In the meantime I suggest all of the Bills fans back up their bets and buy some nice Bulls season tickets in addition to their Bills tickets. The current going price 90 dollars for the season. No pre season games either. The Bulls have been far more entertaining to watch in the last three years than the Bills have been.