mpl6876 Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 This is coming from a very reputable source. According to them, things aren't looking positive for the Bills this season. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/7/12/1564343/football-outsiders-2010-bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 1) The link doesn't work 2) No @#%@#$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/7/12/...ders-2010-bills Maybe that link will work. They predict us to be between 5-11 and 6-10, e.g. the same as last year, basically. A transition season is unlikely to leap you forward, it's supposed to lay the groundwork, unless you get lucky. Here's to getting lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hossage Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 Nothing new. I could post 100 other similar articles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 Football Outsiders do a lot of statistical analysis and it all sounds intelligent but... You can throw it in the trash. The Bills have a new offensive scheme, defensive scheme and coaching staff. While it's true that past performance is often the best indicator of future performance, you simply can't anaylze last year's stats and make good predictions about the Bills 2010 season. Too many changes; too many variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 Football Outsiders do a lot of statistical analysis and it all sounds intelligent but... You can throw it in the trash. The Bills have a new offensive scheme, defensive scheme and coaching staff. While it's true that past performance is often the best indicator of future performance, you simply can't anaylze last year's stats and make good predictions about the Bills 2010 season. Too many changes; too many variables. 98% of all football prognostication is just looking at the previous season and saying that will happen again. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 98% of all football prognostication is just looking at the previous season and saying that will happen again. PTR Amazingly, the philosophy of this front office for the last decade has been the exact OPPOSITE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrFishfinder Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 This is coming from a very reputable source. According to them, things aren't looking positive for the Bills this season. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/7/12/1564343/football-outsiders-2010-bills You are NOT working very hard on your positive outlook, as you said you would. I am watching you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthICE Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 98% of all football prognostication is just looking at the previous season and saying that will happen again. PTR exactly. Let me guess the favorites to go to the superbowl are NO and Indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Northern Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 exactly. Let me guess the favorites to go to the superbowl are NO and Indy? Are you guys familiar with Football Outsiders? Not exactly morons like Mark Schlereth and Charles Davis repeating observations someone else made about teams they've never watched. I get the anger on this board about the ESPN/NFL network talking heads commenting on the Bills when they know nothing about our roster, scheme, etc., but we should also accept the fact that this team has got a lot of holes. 5-6 wins is pretty reasonable baseline estimate given offseason loss of best receiver, new defense, likely loss of best pass rusher, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineMoxie Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 I do respect Football Outsiders for their statistical analysis (though I got annoyed when they went commercial and started charging for everything). At one time they had Poz as the fourth-best LB in the NFL and George Wilson as the best safety - based purely on stats. With that said, what I really don't get is how a team that finished 6-10 last season and played close games against the Pats (on the road!) and has had similar heart-breaking losses to good teams in recent years, would actually get worse under, what is clearly, a better coach. Everyone talks about how bad the Bills players are, but if they were really that bad, how did they win 27 games over the past four seasons (with Dick coaching them, no less)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Northern Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 I do respect Football Outsiders for their statistical analysis (though I got annoyed when they went commercial and started charging for everything). At one time they had Poz as the fourth-best LB in the NFL and George Wilson as the best safety - based purely on stats. With that said, what I really don't get is how a team that finished 6-10 last season and played close games against the Pats (on the road!) and has had similar heart-breaking losses to good teams in recent years, would actually get worse under, what is clearly, a better coach. Everyone talks about how bad the Bills players are, but if they were really that bad, how did they win 27 games over the past four seasons (with Dick coaching them, no less)? Dick Jauron is a clown. But the wins and close games were a reflection of his philosophy of playing not to lose. It was a brand of football where the team tries not to beat itself with turnovers or taking risks on offense. Defensively, the aim was not to give up big plays, but instead force the opponent to drive methodically down the field. We could win 5 games this year and be a much better team that's better positioned to compete for the playoffs (and more) in 2011. Don't let unrealistic expectations prevent you from appreciating what is being built this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 Football Outsiders really deserves a ton of respect (except for their new trend of posting articles on ESPN Insider, in what is a painful irony). But this isn't a situation that they're good at predicting, and I hope they make some acknowledgement of that in the article. The Bills are going to be tough to predict this year (which is good because any logical prediction will be negative). There's a reasonably good chance that they'll end up starting Brian Brohm, who's a big blank slate. Their defense will transition radically, which might work really well and might not work at all - it's going to be very tough to know in advance. They added CJ Spiller, who may have significant but nontraditional value to the roster. And they dumped a historically bad coach. So it's really a who knows at this point. To be good, a lot of things need to work out in our favor. I wouldn't resent an oddsmaker for calling us low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpl6876 Posted July 12, 2010 Author Share Posted July 12, 2010 Are you guys familiar with Football Outsiders? Not exactly morons like Mark Schlereth and Charles Davis repeating observations someone else made about teams they've never watched. I get the anger on this board about the ESPN/NFL network talking heads commenting on the Bills when they know nothing about our roster, scheme, etc., but we should also accept the fact that this team has got a lot of holes. 5-6 wins is pretty reasonable baseline estimate given offseason loss of best receiver, new defense, likely loss of best pass rusher, etc. Charles Davis I really like. Mark S. I really dislike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpl6876 Posted July 12, 2010 Author Share Posted July 12, 2010 You are NOT working very hard on your positive outlook, as you said you would. I am watching you. Thanks Fish, I really appreciate your candor. I am trying but still have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liverpoolkev Posted July 12, 2010 Share Posted July 12, 2010 Charles Davis I really like. Mark S. I really dislike. Charles Davis has zero clue..................Corey Chavous , who is a draft nut since his playing days , schooled davis on our Draft grade. I never seen a guy give an opinion and when challenged by Corey folded like a PIG IN A Blanket............Play The Tape...................Chavous owned Davis when it came to comments on the BILLS DRAFT...................PLAY NFL NETWORK TAPE.........................It was a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpl6876 Posted July 13, 2010 Author Share Posted July 13, 2010 Charles Davis has zero clue..................Corey Chavous , who is a draft nut since his playing days , schooled davis on our Draft grade. I never seen a guy give an opinion and when challenged by Corey folded like a PIG IN A Blanket............Play The Tape...................Chavous owned Davis when it came to comments on the BILLS DRAFT...................PLAY NFL NETWORK TAPE.........................It was a thing of beauty I don't have to play the tape. I seen it live and I liked what Corey had to say. I liked it because he gave the Bills high grades. He said what I wanted to hear thus I liked it. Perhaps, that influenced your thinking too? I really hope Corey is right. I still like Charles Davis. I think he is knowledgeable and well spoken even if he and Corey Chavous disagreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkady Renko Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Do they have a track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineMoxie Posted July 13, 2010 Share Posted July 13, 2010 Dick Jauron is a clown. But the wins and close games were a reflection of his philosophy of playing not to lose. It was a brand of football where the team tries not to beat itself with turnovers or taking risks on offense. Defensively, the aim was not to give up big plays, but instead force the opponent to drive methodically down the field. We could win 5 games this year and be a much better team that's better positioned to compete for the playoffs (and more) in 2011. Don't let unrealistic expectations prevent you from appreciating what is being built this year. Well, maybe, but I think there's more to it than that. Not that I expect them to win 10 games or anything this year. It's just that I think the players have more talent (though maybe not a lot more) than people give them credit for. And it seems to me that Perry Fewell was a little more aggressive on D than just "playing not to lose." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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