Where were they drafted? 2010 starting QBs + JP, Campbell & Raider

[folz]

We always talk about where QBs are found, some say you have to get one in the first round,

others point to Brady going in the 6th, etc. So, I thought I would take a look at the projected

2010 NFL starting QBs to see where they were drafted.

 

I'll post the full list below (and I could be wrong about who some of the starters will be) but it

breaks down like this:

 

Of the 33 potential starters (not counting our Bills...w/2 possibilities each from Clev and SF):

19 1st rounders

5 2nd rounders

2 3rd rounders

2 4th rounders

0 5th rounders

2 6th rounders

1 7th rounders

2 UDFA

 

And just a note: last year Warner and Moore both had starts as UDFAs (I assume CAR will start Claussen this year)

 

So, the overwhelming majority are 1st rounders. Granted some of them are young and may not

pan out...but, for this purpose I'm only looking at if they are a starter, not how good a starter they are,

I'll let you guys debate that if you care to. But, most are indeed 1st rounders, however, 24% are 4th round

or lower and 18% 6th round or lower.

 

 

And on the other side of the coin, you have the 49ers who have 2 not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks,

neither of whom I would feel comfortable with...And then there are the Raiders who before releasing Russell

actually had 4 1st round QBs (Russell, Boller, Campbell, and Losman) along with a 3rd and 6th round selections

(Frye and Gradkowski)...will any of them ever happen?

 

And speaking of the Raiders QBs, I found this interesting article comparing them...

 

http://drafthistory.com/

 

Scroll down and check out the stat graphics comparing the QBs...how much better is Campbell than JP? Maybe not as much as some of us thought (statistics-wise at least)...the article quote on JP is:

 

"And I've overlooked former Buffalo Bill starter J.P. Losman, who won a championship in the UFL last season before joining the Raiders at year end. Look at Losman's career statistics, which in many respects appear better than all the other's except Campbell. Losman completes a fair percentage of his passes, for as many yards per attempt as Campbell, throws nearly as many touchdowns as interceptions, but does have a hard time making decisions which results in an inordinate number of sacks. He was shell-shocked in Buffalo, but as a former number one draft pick, he may be worth the risk of keeping."

 

 

That's it, just a few tidbits I thought I would pass along. Here's the (obviously unofficial) list:

 

Mia Henne 2nd

NE Brady 6th

NYJ Sanchez 1st

Buf Edwards 3rd/ Brohm 2nd/ Brown 7th/ Fitz 7th

Bal Flacco 1st

Cin Palmer 1st

Cle Delhomme UFA/ McCoy 3rd

Pitt Rothlisberger 1st

Hou Schaub 3rd

Ind Manning 1st

Jax Garrard 4th

Tenn Young 1st

Den Orton 4th

KC Cassel 7th

Oak Campbell 1st

SD Rivers 1st

Dal Romo UFA

NYG Manning 1st

Phi Kolb 2nd

Was McNabb 1st

Chi Cutler 1st

Det Stafford 1st

GB Rodgers 1st

Minn Favre? 2nd

Atl Ryan 1st

Car Claussen 2nd/ Moore UFA

NO Brees 2nd

TB Freeman 1st

AZ Leinart? 1st

Stl Bradford 1st

SF Smith 1st/ Carr 1st

Sea Hasselbeck 6th

[Pilsner]

We always talk about where QBs are found, some say you have to get one in the first round,

others point to Brady going in the 6th, etc. So, I thought I would take a look at the projected

2010 NFL starting QBs to see where they were drafted.

 

I'll post the full list below (and I could be wrong about who some of the starters will be) but it

breaks down like this:

 

Of the 33 potential starters (not counting our Bills...w/2 possibilities each from Clev and SF):

20 1st rounders

3 2nd rounders

2 3rd rounders

2 4th rounders

0 5th rounders

2 6th rounders

2 7th rounders

2 UDFA

 

And just a note: last year Warner and Moore both had starts as UDFAs (I assume CAR will start Claussen this year)

 

So, the overwhelming majority are 1st rounders. Granted some of them are young and may not

pan out...but, for this purpose I'm only looking at if they are a starter, not how good a starter they are,

I'll let you guys debate that if you care to. But, most are indeed 1st rounders, however, 24% are 4th round

or lower and 18% 6th round or lower.

 

 

And on the other side of the coin, you have the 49ers who have 2 not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks,

neither of whom I would feel comfortable with...And then there are the Raiders who before releasing Russell

actually had 4 1st round QBs (Russell, Boller, Campbell, and Losman) along with a 3rd and 6th round selections

(Frye and Gradkowski)...will any of them ever happen?

 

And speaking of the Raiders QBs, I found this interesting article comparing them...

 

http://drafthistory.com/

 

Scroll down and check out the stat graphics comparing the QBs...how much better is Campbell than JP? Maybe not as much as some of us thought (statistics-wise at least)...the article quote on JP is:

 

"And I've overlooked former Buffalo Bill starter J.P. Losman, who won a championship in the UFL last season before joining the Raiders at year end. Look at Losman's career statistics, which in many respects appear better than all the other's except Campbell. Losman completes a fair percentage of his passes, for as many yards per attempt as Campbell, throws nearly as many touchdowns as interceptions, but does have a hard time making decisions which results in an inordinate number of sacks. He was shell-shocked in Buffalo, but as a former number one draft pick, he may be worth the risk of keeping."

 

 

That's it, just a few tidbits I thought I would pass along. Here's the (obviously unofficial) list:

 

Mia Henne 7th

NE Brady 6th

NYJ Sanchez 1st

Buf Edwards 3rd/ Brohm 2nd/ Brown 7th/ Fitz 7th

Bal Flacco 1st

Cin Palmer 1st

Cle Delhomme UFA/ McCoy 1st

Pitt Rothlisberger 1st

Hou Schaub 3rd

Ind Manning 1st

Jax Garrard 4th

Tenn Young 1st

Den Orton 4th

KC Cassel 7th

Oak Campbell 1st

SD Rivers 1st

Dal Romo UFA

NYG Manning 1st

Phi Kolb 2nd

Was McNabb 1st

Chi Cutler 1st

Det Stafford 1st

GB Rodgers 1st

Minn Favre? 2nd

Atl Ryan 1st

Car Claussen 1st/ Moore UFA

NO Brees 2nd

TB Freeman 1st

AZ Leinart? 1st

Stl Bradford 1st

SF Smith 1st/ Carr 1st

Sea Hasselbeck 6th

 

 

Clausen was picked 48th overall, and McCoy in the 2nd or 3rd round, can't recall. Good read tho. Very interesting actually. Thanks for the info

[folz]

Clausen was picked 48th overall, and McCoy in the 2nd or 3rd round, can't recall. Good read tho. Very interesting actually. Thanks for the info

 

Yeah, fixed the post..thanks. Don't know how I screwed that up, I guess I still had predraft

talk on my brain.

[earthtobrint]

Another quick correction: Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round, not the 7th. That is interesting, though. Despite all the bust quarterbacks in round one, that round is still where the most starters come from.

[CarolinaBill]

keep in mind QB is easily the most difficult position to play in ALL of sports, so naturally the top of the talent pool is where you should find most of the top performers, every now and then one slips by (brady warner romo) but even the maj of those 2nd rd qbs on that list slipped out of lack of necessity not necessarily lack of talent.

[Dr. Fong]

Another quick correction: Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round, not the 7th. That is interesting, though. Despite all the bust quarterbacks in round one, that round is still where the most starters come from.

 

 

I think that has just as much to do with the fact that franchises have invested a lot of time, money, and a first round pick in these players. Therefore, they are proportionately more likely to be named the starter even if their success on the field might not dictate that they should be.

[Pilsner]

I think that has just as much to do with the fact that franchises have invested a lot of time, money, and a first round pick in these players. Therefore, they are proportionately more likely to be named the starter even if their success on the field might not dictate that they should be.

 

 

Good point. Late round picks can be discarded without much afterthought if they don't pan out. But if you pick em high you tend to keep them around a bit longer to "hopefully" prove to the naysayers that your pick was legit.

[earthtobrint]

I think that has just as much to do with the fact that franchises have invested a lot of time, money, and a first round pick in these players. Therefore, they are proportionately more likely to be named the starter even if their success on the field might not dictate that they should be.

 

That's true. But from the list of starters, the only 1st rounders starting that haven't earned the spot and are playing more by default or due to the investment would be Matt Leinert and Alex Smith. Stafford and Freeman fit under the category of unknown ability. That still leaves largely first rounders starting.

[Dr. Fong]

That's true. But from the list of starters, the only 1st rounders starting that haven't earned the spot and are playing more by default or due to the investment would be Matt Leinert and Alex Smith. Stafford and Freeman fit under the category of unknown ability. That still leaves largely first rounders starting.

 

 

At best I come up with 11 legitimate proven starters that were taken in the first round. That's giving Sanchez the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

NYJ Sanchez 1st

Bal Flacco 1st

Cin Palmer 1st

Pitt Rothlisberger 1st

Ind Manning 1st

SD Rivers 1st

NYG Manning 1st

Was McNabb 1st

Chi Cutler 1st

GB Rodgers 1st

Atl Ryan 1st

 

The original poster said he wasn't debating ability, just pointing out that the majority of the likely starters next season would be first round picks. I'm just saying I don't see it as slanted towards the first round as he does due to certain factors that benefit first round picks getting on the field.

[peteski]

I don't think Clausen will start this year unless there is an injury. The Panthers are pretty high on Moore.

[Pilsner]

I don't think Clausen will start this year unless there is an injury. The Panthers are pretty high on Moore.

 

 

I think they'll start Moore too...for now. But why draft Pike? that one made me think.

[CarolinaBill]

I think they'll start Moore too...for now. But why draft Pike? that one made me think.

IMO the panthers are praying that moore has a good yr so they can trade him next yr for something good and clausen will take over in 2011 leaving TP as the backup

[McBeane]

Colt McCoy went in the 3rd.

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

The other factor which I think needs to figured prominently into this equation if one is considering the question of whether your team should draft a QB in the 1st is not merely how many starter or stud QBs are 1st rounders but also how many of these franchise QBs play for the teams which drafted them in the 1st round.

 

There are certainly a number of prominent examples of players who were drafted in the 1st round such as Trent Dilfer was who proved a total bust for the team which picked him and then after he went FA landed in a situation were this first rounder then went on to win an SB with another team.

 

Granted one can claim in this case that his Ravens gig was a special case, but a good statistical analysis would also include:

 

A. Early round picks like Favre, Young or most recent SB winner Drew Brees who were declared a loser or worth parting with by the team which chose them but went on to storied carriers with SB winners.

 

B. A number of definite 1st round choices who actually did not play with the team which selected them for various reasons but ended up leading other teams to SB victories with draft day or near draft day trades that had them develop elsewhere such as Elway or the more recent Eli Manning. Granted the trades happened so quickly that one might consider these players to essentially have been developed by the teams which acquired them on draft day, but for analysis of the real world situation the impacts on cap issues and items such as the quality of the team they ended up with are relevant to this consideration.

 

C. Another factor which needs to be considered as part of the specific consideration whether a team is better off picking a QB in the first (again quite a different thing than having a 1st round selection leading your team) is the broader consideration that not only are you weighing this option against finding a Tom Brady in the 6th or a Joe Montana in the 3rd is that real world examples of SB winning QBs have been found through a variety of means from plucking Kurt Warner from his previous job as a boxboy for Walmart to finding two time loser Brad Johnson to lead your TB team.

 

The simple facts of the case are that the recent successes in leading a team to an SB win for the teams which drafted them of Peyton Manning and Ben RoboQB are actually relative rarities where the previous successful example of a team drafting a QB in the 1st who led the team which drafted him to an SB win goes back to the late 80s pick of Troy Aikman by Dallas.

 

Rather than picking a QB in the first being an obvious way to get the QB you need, this method was essentially not successful in delivering an SB win during the entire collection of players chosen in the 90s and early in the current millenium until Manning led the team which chose him to an SB win in the later 2000s.

 

In fact if the requirements are that the player chosen by the Bills needs to either be as good as P. Manning or the team need to be as good as the Pitts team which RoboQB fit into then looking at both the quality of the players whom the Bills has a shot at and making an assessment of how good the Bills were then drafting a QB in the first would have been a pretty bad move by the Bills in retrospect since they acquired Jimbo.

[silvermike]

I start to get the most skeptical of QBs after the middle of the 2nd round, until we get into the total who dat category in the 6th and 7th. When there's a guy on the board who has legitimate starting potential (say, better than 50% odds), he'll rarely make it out of the first round, and even Clausen went with a team's first pick. After that, I think the guys drafted in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th tend to be backup types. It's too early to make a very risky pick on a guy who might be Tom Brady, but 10:1 he's just Rohan Davey, so those longshot guys tend to drop. Instead, the names that peek out in that range are the Trent Edwards types - future journeymen.

[bbfan54]

It would also be interesting to know how many QBs are picked in each round. Some rounds may have more QBs selected than others which makes it more likely that at least a few will be successful.

[StamerforPrez]

I could see a QB controversy happening very soon in Oakland if they keep JP. I always thought of Campbell as very similar to JP with the inconsistant play surrounded by subpar personnel, and the flashes of brilliance.

[Mr. WEO]

I could see a QB controversy happening very soon in Oakland if they keep JP. I always thought of Campbell as very similar to JP with the inconsistant play surrounded by subpar personnel, and the flashes of brilliance.

??????

[folz]

Another quick correction: Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round, not the 7th.

 

Yes, fixed...thanks.

 

 

The other factor which I think needs to figured prominently into this equation if one is considering the question of whether your team should draft a QB in the 1st is not merely how many starter or stud QBs are 1st rounders but also how many of these franchise QBs play for the teams which drafted them in the 1st round.

 

Good point. Without looking up each guy, I saw at least 9 starting QBs who are starting for a team

they weren't drafted by (Delhomme, Orton, Cassel, Campbell, Romo, McNabb, Cutler, Favre, and Brees).

Only 3 of those are 1st rounders (one of whom is McNabb who played the majority of his career with the team

that drafted him). So, I guess that goes to the point that others were making, when a team drafts a QB in

the first, they don't like to get rid of them too soon even if they aren't panning out because they want to

prove they made the right pick, or because they spent a lot of money on him, etc. But also, when a 1st

rounder is good, most teams will hang on to them, when they bust then they aren't really worth picking up,

so very few 1st rounders get traded and then help the new team. But obviously teams can and do get QBs

that can help the team via trade.

 

 

At best I come up with 11 legitimate proven starters that were taken in the first round.

 

The original poster said he wasn't debating ability, just pointing out that the majority of the likely starters next season would be first round picks. I'm just saying I don't see it as slanted towards the first round as he does due to certain factors that benefit first round picks getting on the field.

 

That sounds about right 11 out of the 19, although I think a couple more might reach that level (Bradford, Young, maybe

one or two more) but its just still too early to tell. I really just started looking up the info to see how many lower round

guys were starting to see if statistically there was a chance that a 7th rounder (Levi) could be a starter in the future. And

of course all I learned was what we already knew, the odds are low for a 7th rounder to turn into a legit starter (12.5-15.5%

based solely on 2010 starters), but it has and does happen.

 

 

I could see a QB controversy happening very soon in Oakland if they keep JP. I always thought of Campbell as very similar to JP with the inconsistant play surrounded by subpar personnel, and the flashes of brilliance.

 

Yeah, that could be interesting...our former QB vs. a guy some fans wanted us to trade for.

[yungmack]

A. Early round picks like Favre, Young or most recent SB winner Drew Brees who were declared a loser or worth parting with by the team which chose them but went on to storied carriers with SB winners.

Steve Young was NOT "declared a loser." He came out of the USFL when it folded, along with Jim Kelly. Both guys went to the NFL teams that drafted them. Neither was particularly happy about it. Especially Young, who hated Tampa Bay and forced a trade.

 

(For you young'uns who think the Bills stink, you need to go back and check out the Bucs. Now that's stinking it up)