BrooklynBills

Is Mario still a talented player? Absolutely. But even if just maintained his previous 2 years production into this past season, we would still be here talking about releasing Mario. At his cap number, he should be producing at a top 5 non-QB player in the league, at that just has not happened at point in his time here. The fact of the matter is that he has the 2nd highest cap number for a defensive player and he's not close to being in that class of player, even in his best years. The writing was on the wall last off season when nothing was done with his contract as far as an extension or a restructure. That was the time to bring down his cap number and extend him a few years. But either the Bills made their decision on this or he balked at an extension. Also, it is much more likely that Mario too saw the writing on the wall with regards to his contract, realized that the Bills are not going to pay me $19 million next year, and mailed it in. He knows he'll get a nice new contract based on his reputation and he can chalk up this bad year to Rex using him incorrectly. All his scheme-hating in the media is purely so that he can take that into the off-season when he is negotiating with other teams. The Mario situation has WAY more to do with money than Rex running him out of town.

His defenses without Rod Marinelli as DC are pretty awful. I think he very overrated as a defensive coach.

Pete Carroll basically runs the defense in SEA. Mike McCarthy won a Super Bowl as the primary play caller for Green Bay. Ditto Sean Payton with the Saints. Arguably the best team in the NFL, Arizona, has a HC who is also the de facto OC. Mike Holmgren won a Super Bowl calling plays. Jon Gruden also. I think this point is overblown. And Pete Carroll isn't scheduling 15 minutes for anything. That guy is more laid back and casual than anyone in the NFL.

It took Carroll a year to get his defense going also. And he had back to back 7-9 seasons to start his tenure there. If the Bills simply wanted to keep the defense rolling, they could have easily promoted Schwartz to HC (which by all accounts he would have accepted) and brought in a new offensive staff. But they probably realized that he had a terrible record as a HC and that his defenses never had sustained success year to year. Also, hopefully they realized that their defensive model in which they invest so many resources on the defensive line was unsustainable. They have to give Ryan more than one season to figure this out.

In Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, Pettine's D ranked higher than Schwartz's D, mainly I think because the Bills offense was a total tire fire under Marrone in year 1.

Not a Marrone fan, but I think Graham comes off worse in that story.

I like Clay. I thought was very good last year. But his production does not warrant being paid as a top 5 TE.

Part of the problem is that they needed to go out and sign Mario because of serious lack of developing any pass rushers on their own at the time that they signed him. Same with Clay. The Bills had so neglected any kind of development of a TE that they needed to go out and overpay for Charles Clay. Now releasing Mario will help get them back into shape, but restructuring Clay will still put him as one the top 3-4 cap numbers for a TE in the NFL.

i would take April over Crossman, but I hope we make a play for Miami ST coach, Darren Rizzi, if he gets let go in a regime change. Their ST has been consistently good the last few years.

It took me a little research. The NFL salary cap is so convoluted, I feel like there is a new cap thing I figure out every offseason.

We are this close to the cap ceiling while pay our QBs a combined ~6-7 million. We are still paying Chris Williams almost 2 million against the cap next season. We are paying Charles Clay the 4th highest paid TE. Aaron Williams is paid $500,000 less than Kam Chancellor. We have 2 of the top 4 and 3 of the top 17 highest paid contracts for DL at a combined $41.8/yr(and that's if you count Hughes as a OLB). No one else is even close to this. And not one of these contracts is going to expire before we need to cut one of them at minimum. We are paying a FB a 2.3/yr contract.

If we hang on to Mario until June 1, the 14.5 million that we save is not available until then, which is after the free agent period when we will need to re-sign Glenn and Incognito or sign a few low priced free agents to replace them as their replacements are not on the roster. If cut Mario now and designate him a post June 1 cut, again, the 14.5 million does not become available until June 2, when there will be little left to sign and our own guys will have signed elsewhere. This designation was designed to help players who were going to be cap casualties in camp sign on with team during FA to increase the chance they could sign somewhere. If we cut Mario now, specifically before March(I think) when he is due a roster bonus, we save the 12.9 million right away and can use it to improve the team or re-sign our own guys.

No. Any cap savings from releasing him won't be available until June 1st then and it moves dead money into the 2017 season, pretty much negating any benefit from cutting him. The only thing I would say regarding the Bills is that we have little cap room, but have 53 players signed to the roster. When we release Mario we will be $12 million under the cap with 52 guys signed. The Saints, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Jets, and Lions will all be around the same free space figure with roughly 40 guys signed. I don't think we have been great at managing the cap, but we are not in situations like the Saints or Dolphins.

Chip Kelly. He almost took the job 4 years ago.

Greg Roman may be a HC candidate if they hire Chris Polian. They were teammates at John Carroll and have remained friends. They also have offensive guys that already fit alot of what he likes to do.

I think some holdovers from Marrone will be gone. Danny Crossman, Jason Rebrovich(LBs coach from Schwartz's staff). If Rob Ryan comes in, I'd imagine it would be to coach LBs as we have a guy from Schwartz's staff(Rebrovich) and a pretty young coach(April III) there right now and that position was somewhat of a problem last year. This would be a good move IMO. Tony Sparano's son is our staff coaching TEs and Rex has a history with Tony Sr. going back to NY and I could see him coming on to help with TEs and OL. If Miami brings in a new staff, I'd be trying to grab their ST coach. He has been very good.

It will just affect how much is guaranteed IMO. Won't affect his overall value, but rather they will build in ways to get out if he has issues with his health.

Mathis also came on the market after the initial FA period, when teams had less money to spend or had already made roster moves to bring in OL. His All Pro season was in 2013, also, although he did make the Pro Bowl in 2014. Last year, 3 Gs in their 31/32 year old season signed new contracts before or during FA(all were re-signs/re-negotiations): Marshall Yanda: 4 years, 32 mil, 8/yr, 56% GTD Jahri Evans: 3 years, 18 mil, 6/yr, 50% GTD Ben Grubbs: 2 years, 10 mil, 5/tr, 50% GTD Yanda is widely regarded as one of the best Gs in football and has made multiple Pro Bowls and is a 2 time All Pro so he is in another tier altogether. Evans and Grubbs both renegotiated contracts against their previous deals as they were both under contract with years left so I think they are overpaid a tad each. Now Richie will be 33 at the beginning of next year while these 3 are a bit younger. Mathis will be 35. I think Richie is looking at something like a 2-3 yr deal, roughly 4.5/yr, with 50% GTD, with the idea being they will cut him/restructure in the last year, trying to keep his cap numbers lower in years 1 and 2.

http://www.spotrac.com/research/NFL/extension-projection-russell-okung-533/ This is a good read about where Glenn's contract could slot in. Glenn is a top 15 LT, but I don't think he's in that elite category. Trent Williams is a 4 time Pro Bowler, and was named a top 50 player in the NFL in 2015 and has been on the NFL's top 100 list for the last 3 years. He was also a top 5 draft pick so he also had that pedigree going for him in negotiations. And he just signed his deal last year. Glenn will not be getting Trent Williams money. Castonzo is a good barometer in that they are similar players in pedigree, but i would think that would be around the ceiling for Glenn's contract, with less guaranteed money going to Glenn, but something that puts him in the top 10 of LT contracts. But they could also look at a deal like Nate Solder's and give him less money and less years but fully guarantee it. Also, just because Glenn's average annual salary will be around 10 million, that doesnt mean his cap number will be 10 in his first year. Solder's was around 5 million; Castonzo's was 6.8. Also, because Glenn is so young, his deal will be designed to be renegotiated after a few years, probably keeping his initial cap numbers lower.

There are many people still left in FO who have been around forever.

Release Mario: 12.9 million Convert Charles Clay roster bonus into signing bonus: 7.5 million There's 20.4 mil in cap space gained. The following guys are overpaid to be backups or are simply not in the plans moving forward: McKelvin: 3.9 Urbik: 1.7 Dixon: 1.1 Jarius Wynn: 1 Goodwin: .7 Duke Williams: .6 That gets us to 29.4 under the cap. These guys are older, had little impact on the team, and may be released due to age: Kyle Williams: 5 Manny Lawson: 2.6 Corey Graham: 2.6 Thats gets us to 39 IF we go that route, but I think thats less likely to happen. Most likely, we release Mario, Lawson, McKelvin, Duke Williams, Urbik, Dixon, Wynn, and Goodwin, and restructure Clay to get 32 mil under the cap. With that space, we: re-sign Glenn(~10 mil/yr) re-sign Richie(~5 mil/yr) This gives us roughly 15 mil in FA to play with to grab a few 2nd tier free agents like Demario Davis, Damon Harrison, Courtney Upshaw, Mark Barron, or Jermaine Kearse. Then, we can cut the following players in camp/after June 1, to fit in a Tyrod extension before the start of the season: Corey Graham: 3.6 Dan Carpenter: 2.3 Jerome Felton: 1.6 Cyrus Kouandijo: .8 Garrison Sanborn: .9 That frees up about 9 million if we want to get Tyrod locked up.

Manuel has offset language in his contract so if he signs on with another team, the Bills and their cap are refunded with amount he signs for.

That would make less sense. Rex is signed to the same amount of years and for more money. This is simply saying "you are in together because no other GM candidate is going to take this job with Rex already here and I'm not firing him after one season. Here is some extra money in case I do fire both of you next year."

This actually makes sense with the other report. Tie them together contractually. Keeping Rex will limit who they can bring in as GM. Whaley is not going to accept a shorter deal.

We will cut more players than just Mario Williams.