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KOKBILLS

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Posts posted by KOKBILLS

  1. 23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

    Mitchell to me is an example of why the combine is dangerous for evaluation. Suddenly because of his 40 time he is a 1st round talent. But everything I've read and watched on him shows that he is an inconsistent route runner and struggles against press coverage and isn't a particularly high-effort player. Very impressive 40 time but it changes nothing. The tape doesn't lie.

     

    I don't think Mitchell is a Combine-only stud at all... Brett Kollmann and Greg Cosell both have him as their #4 WR overall... Daniel Jeremiah has him at 33 overall... His tape is fantastic at times, especially in big games... He can be silky-smooth...He has shown effortless movement skills on the field... He ran good routes...

     

    Not sure what you're looking for. He's a College kid. They all have faults. He's an elite athlete at WR who has had huge games vs some of the best College Defenses and comes with a limitless upside. He would be a home run at 28 because he has legit WR1 upside... You just have to coach him up. B-)

    • Agree 2
  2. Up until that Mitchell run I was all but convinced he would slide down to 28 and be the pick...

     

    4.35 with a 1.52 10 yd split... 39.5" vert, 11.33' broad jump...

     

    Let's see what you've got BBB... B-)

    • Agree 1
  3. 1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

    Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin are the fellas I think you're looking at as possible at #28.

    I think Cosell is one of the sharper minds out there. He's very high on Mitchell; likes Franklin as well.

     

    Agree 100%...

    • Like (+1) 1
  4. I think they'll concentrate on Daquan, AJ, and David Edwards first. 

     

    I think Shaq will be back again. Same role as 2023. Maybe he gets beat out by a Rookie. But at least he's decent insurance for that last DE spot. 

     

    Then maybe one UFA around 10 million AAV... Of those I like Darnell Mooney or Sheldon Rankins. 

     

    On the cheaper side I like Clelin Ferrell as a vet DE who should come cheap and was a decent rotation guy for the 49ers last year. He's not without upside and again, I think he'll be pretty cheap. 

     

    I hope they at least talk to Jeremy Chinn and see if it's a possibility. I think that jack-of-all-trades-role he had in Carolina did him no favors. And there is upside with him. Maybe MCd can work some of that Safety magic with Chinn. 

     

    Alohi Gilman seems to be a player on the rise and should not command a huge contract.

     

    There's a lot more... The Cover 1 folks have done a bunch of videos already about bargain UFA's... I know Joe Marino is going position by position too. I do think there are plenty of UFA's to be had this year to fill the roster...even at budget pricing... B-)

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    • Haha (+1) 1
  5. 1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

    Well, played sir well played

    Do you know who else had short arms?
     

    Kyle Williams

     

    I called my nephew last month to tell him how much I liked Fiske... And I said... He reminds me of a bigger KW... B-)

  6. 5 hours ago, DJB said:

    I keep saying it over and over again in this thread. A Mitchell

     

    Now I prefer Thomas and Franklin but I really think Mitchell could be the guy 

     

    Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked ahead of Franklin (and Coleman)... I'm not going to forget how high he was on Kincaid last year. I'm paying a little more attention to his WR takes now. B-)

    • Awesome! (+1) 1
  7. 6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

    I think by the time the Combine is over, Ligette will be and should be a consideration at #28. Don't really like Worthy so much because he is a toothpick.

     

    I really like Legette... I was SO disappointed when he only measured 6-1 at the Sr Bowl... Then you watch him again and forget all about that.

     

    image.thumb.png.b5f1219c6ccc5da4ea67ed5751779f23.png

    • Agree 4
  8. 6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

    Among the 84 NFL WRs to receive at least 50 targets this year, the average YPRR was 1.69. Davis was at 1.34, which was 58th among that group.

     

    Among the 43 college WRs that I pulled into my Excel chart, the average YPRR was 2.39.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit#gid=1244172747

     

    Should also mention you have to consider context with YPRR. It will heavily favor WRs that are the #1 target on their team (for example, it'll be biased towards a guy like Xavier Legette or Malik Washington for example who were by far the #1 target on their team vs. someone like Brian Thomas or Keon Coleman who played in offenses where the ball was spread out more/they weren't featured as much). On the flipside, if you're playing with a poor passer, your YPRR will suffer since you can't rack up yards if they don't get you the ball, so guys like Tahj Washington (Caleb Williams), Nabers/Thomas (Jayden Daniels), and Tez Walker (Drake Maye) are probably at an advantage from that perspective. If you happen to be a WR that played in more of a balanced passing attack and also didn't have a good QB, you're probably screwed in terms of YPRR.

     

      

    I believe those drop rates are probably for their entire careers so it isn't a perfect match to my table which shows the last two seasons, but feel free to check the link above for drop rates on all of the guys you're asking about.

     

    That spread sheet on the link is awesome!!! Thanks!!! B-)

    • Agree 1
  9. On 2/19/2024 at 9:04 AM, Bill from NYC said:

    5) Jermaine Burton - WR

    Burton played two seasons at Bama (transfered from UGA). Jermaine has good speed, very good hands and seems to get open with ease. He would appear to be a terrific target for Josh. I think that his stats were hampered by having Milroe at QB. Milroe did not make quick decisions and runs quite often, and I suspect that Burton was frustrated at times.  Now, a couple of people who claim  to have inside info told me that he is a bit of a head case. I have no idea if this is true but this kid can play. Would I like to see him on the Bills? Absolutely, and I don't see him listed as a first round pick in most mock drafts. I think that he will last until round 2 but who really knows?

     

    You don't have to have inside info to know Burton is a bit of a head case. There is plenty of public evidence. That being said I like him as a WR prospect for the Bills. Maybe he grows up a bit and the maturity stuff makes him slide to an area where he's a no-brainer... We'll see...B-)

  10. 11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    You don't see him as an NFL slot at all? Because he took 40% of his snaps at the College level last season in the Slot.

     

    I'm sorry, but anyone who has that small of a frame and was only split out wide just 60% of the time in College can't be trusted to play exclusively on the boundary in the NFL - which is what we're in the market for.

     

    I think Shorter may develop into something, but he's a total Wild Card. There's no way they think he's ready to take over and start full time. And Worthy in the slot would remove Shakir and/or Kincaid from the field.

     

    Worthy may be fast, but he's at best a tweener that you have to use creatively. He simply does not check enough of the requisite boxes for the role we're looking for.

     

    Worthy fans drool over his highlight videos and ignore everything else. That's not how Beane operates. He'll take the guy who fits all the traits he's looking for and athletic specimens who are sometimes looked at more as work in progresses over simply looking at College highlight reels, every day of the week and twice on Sunday's.

     

    I'm practically positive it will be either Thomas Jr, Franklin, Coleman, Mitchell, or Legette. We can still get speed and talent without having to give up size and true X usage and experience at the College level.

     

    Even Franklin's a little small. But he still has 2.5-3" and 20 more lbs. on Worthy and was used in the slot only 17% of the time last season - compared to Worthy's 40%

     

    I think Worthy will get killed in the NFL if he plays a lot of slot... They'll break him in half...

     

    I greatly...greatly prefer Franklin, Thomas, and Legette to Worthy... Mitchell too if he runs decent... Coleman I'm not sure only because of his separation issues... But I do think he's got great upside...

     

    And the way you are thumbs-downing everyone of my posts on Worthy... I get it... You don't like him...lol...I'm not huge on him either... I just think the Bills may be...He's lightning in a bottle if used properly. And they want explosive traits... At least that's what Beane said... We'll see though... Hopefully we get Franklin and all is good...B-)

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1
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  11. 7 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

    Worthy’s speed is enticing, but wouldn’t he almost have to play in the slot to be most effective?  I think he will struggle big time out wide at 170lbs.  To me, they would be pushing Shakir out of the lineup and still have nobody to play where Davis did.

     

    I don't see Worthy as a slot at all... Unless he's taking a bubble screens... You want him outside... He's is extremely fast...The Bills would use him like they used Smoke and Sanders. 

     

    The skinny stuff is the risk with Worthy. And I'm not saying it's worth the risk at all. I'm only saying his skill set is what the Bills desperately want, and need... B-)

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  12. 4 hours ago, NewEra said:

    I hope your feeling is wrong.  I don’t hate Worthy, I like his skills- I’m just bullish on 170lb players in the NFL, especially with a first rd pick.  
     

    I know I know, but Devonta Smith!  Seems like the exception rather than the rule.

     

    Totally fair... He's very skinny... 

     

    I'd love to add Worthy as part of an entire package, but it's tough to see him as a future #1... I think the Bills are looking for an explosive WR that can play the X and take bubble screens. He fits that profile. I also think they Drafted Shorter for a reason and that reason was specifically to take Gabe's place as the do-the-dirty-work wide out. They spent a 5th on him and that was no coincidence. They see something in Shorter that fits...Anyway... I could be WAY off on this but the explosive X part fits Worthy... That's what he'll be... And there's only one team with Josh Allen's arm...So he will be explosive... JMO of course... B-)

     

     

    • Like (+1) 2
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  13. On 1/27/2024 at 2:31 PM, NewEra said:

    Pretty much this.  I think 1-3 of those guys will be gone by the time we pick.  Most likely Thomas and Franklin are gone imo.  Leggettes combine/pro day could push him up too.  Is it worth trading up for one of them?  Or sit and take Mitchell?  Is he ok trading up like we did last season for one of them.  Those 3 are legit speedsters, while Mitchell is not.  

     

    It's still REAL early... But if Thomas and Franklin are gone by 28, and I think Thomas will be for sure... Franklin I would put at about 65% probable... I think the guy the Bills take will be Worthy... Just a feeling I have... B-)

    • Dislike 2
  14. Just now, Einstein said:


    Personally, I think he will be on the team.

    But they could trade him with a post-June 1st designation for only half the cost. Which I wouldn't be totally shocked if they do.

    Just because of his age.

     

    Right... I could see that... Problem is, that savings does not kick in till after the 6/1 trade... But it is WAY more do-able... B-)

     

    image.png.c637ea8ac0acddde7b7424fa9604578c.png

    • Like (+1) 1
  15. 1 minute ago, Einstein said:


    Just FYI, Greg Tompsett has absolutely no idea what he is talking about half the time. I ran the math 2 months ago and determined the Bills would be -$50M over the cap (before any moves). I pointed out to Greg that his numbers were vastly wrong (he was at -$26M). He argued with me for quite a while, stating OTC was always right, you're an idiot, yada yada.

    Guess what happened? Last week OTC updated their projects to....

     

    image.thumb.png.5265e327ddd0b198dca9a6ebbcc66594.png

     

    I didnt even notice at first, but another tweeter who saw the argument bumped my tweet that was correcting him a couple months ago and pointed out that I was right. Greg must have saw that he screwed up so he blocked me lol.

    Long story short - take what Greg says with a GIGANTIC grain of salt.

    Fair enough, but does that not further cement the fact that Diggs has to stay in 2024? 

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