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Rubes

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    Wildcard Weekend Weather

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Rubes

    On 12/31/2024 at 10:34 AM, leonbus23 said:

     

    This is an interesting post. 

     

    Like you, I can get a bit annoyed or uncomfortable with "hobbyists" who make claims outside of their professional fields of study and work. For instance, my field (PhD) is Economics, and the amount of misinformation / speculation that proliferate from hobbyists about something like inflation, for example, is frustrating. 

     

    Regardless, I wonder, do professional forecasters use numerical models to forecast weather beyond the 96 hours, and if so, are their forecasts reputable in any way, or is the 96 hour limit a rule, per se? Do professional forecasters simply qualify their forecasts beyond 96 hours with a disclaimer? In other words, if numerical weather models aren't worth a damn outside of 96 hours, then what do professional weather forecasters actually do? Or are weather forecasters still searching for the best numerical model? 

     

    You don't have to answer these questions, and they may not be reasonable questions (since I know nothing about weather), but it is interesting. 

     

    One guy I know does a nice job explaining his snow forecasts by looking at multiple model runs from a series of different formal models. Different models tend to interpret and predict weather patterns differently, while individual runs within each model have great potential variability out beyond 72-96 hours. So what he does is to look at the precipitation averages of the different model runs, then compare the different averages across the models. Once they start to converge around a common theme, then he gets more confidence in predicting what will eventually happen. That convergence typically happens around 96 hours out when it comes to precipitation, but of course you can see common dry patterns across models pretty easily going out further than that.

     

    The main disclaimer here is that his job is predicting precipitation amounts (inches of snow and inches of water), so he is focused primarily on that, not things like clouds/sun/temperature/etc.

     

    I probably didn't describe that very well, but hopefully that communicated something...

     

    So, how is everyone feeling about this defense going into the playoffs?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Now that all of the meaningful regular season games are done, having seen how this defense has performed the last few weeks against the Rams, Lions, Patriots, and the Jets, how are you all feeling about their impact on our playoff chances?


    It seems to me that this defense is exactly what we’ve come to know: bend and hope they don’t break. Gives up yards and first downs in chunks, forces offenses into long drives, and hopes the other team screws up and either kicks field goals or turns the ball over. Seems to work okay against below average offenses (New England**** or the Jets), not quite so much against very good offenses (Lions, Rams, Ravens). Sometimes does well against certain teams or schemes (eg, Miami, SF), other times not so much.

     

    They say offenses win in the regular season, defenses win in the playoffs. I feel like this defense is going to struggle in the playoffs, where most teams have strong offenses. Seems to me like it’s all going to come down to whether Josh can play out of his mind and carry them on his own.

     

    I’d just hate to see another great season by Josh wasted by a porous defense (and crappy special teams, too).

     

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 5

    On to the JETS

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

    Hyde not elevated again.

    Why did they bother to sign him?

    This game and next week are perfect opportunity to see if he can still play. 

    Looking like more of a PR stunt now than a serious footbal decision. 


    PR stunt? Hardly. He was signed to provide guidance for the young guys, especially Bishop, and it sounds like it has been effective so far. He can be a pull-cord-in-case-of-emergency guy as well, but we’re not quite at that point.

     

    On to the JETS

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

     

    The defensive scheme and play calling has produced abysmal results for weeks... And yes that includes the Pats game. Let's see if they bounce back against, Adams, Wilson, and Hall tomorrow.


    I said this last week before the Pats game but it bears repeating again now: this game will be a good measure of how the Bills defense will be prepared for the playoffs. If they can’t get up for this game and execute well at home with so much on the line against a 4-win team, it’s not a great predictor for January.

     

    On to the JETS

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, jkeerie said:

    Now...as to the broadcast, I tuned in during the pregame simply selecting "Watch".  My brother and I chatted waiting for the games to start...and promptly missed 45 minutes of the game because Netflix started my watching at the beginning of the pregame, not at halfway through when I tuned in.  I had to fast forward to get to the game.  We watched the game from the beginning, FF through commercials and half time to catch up.  On Prime Video, you get the option when you tune in to "watch live" or "watch from beginning".  Netflix was "watch".  Not good.

     

    BTW...I felt really stupid until I read someone's post in the game thread, that he also had to fast forward to get to the actual game.

     

    I had the same experience. The interface totally made me believe I was going to be watching live from the start of the game, then after about 15 minutes I was like, "when is this game going to start?" which is when I realized I was watching the pregame crap. Missed the first two drives of the game. I was not pleased.

     

    Also, I kept going in and out of the game and when I'd come back, it would be the same thing—I'd get the impression I was going to watch "live", but each time the game came on I was back where I left off the last time and had to fast forward every time. Not a great look, Netflix.

     

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 1

    Thoughts on Amari Cooper?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Jerry Jabber said:

    Cooper does take the attention off the other Bills receivers. In the Ravens and Texans games (before we traded for Cooper), the Bills WR’s were blanketed and Allen had no one open to throw to. 

     

    Sounds a little bit like that last game against the Pats****...

     

    On to the JETS

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

    If KC wins Wednesday, let’s see every back up we have. Of course that means no change for the secondary, but get Mitch some snaps and give Josh two weeks to recover from a season of football. 


    Sure, but just because KC wins it doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed the 2 seed. Still need to win one more.

     

    • Like (+1) 4
    • Agree 2
    • Thank you (+1) 2
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