Rubes
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Posts posted by Rubes
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30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:
I understand the point you're trying to make here, but with this view, most analysis that exists would become irrelevant. So to me it's just sort of an odd point to make. I mean take any stat that exists and I can apply this lens to it. EX: Josh's TD's are up. Well, that's not Josh and his TD's per say, it could be better WR's, better blocking, better play calling.....Lets not really talk about Josh's TD's being up because we are just creating casual narratives.
If you go back to the first page I had a fairly lengthy post on teams, namely our divisional rivals not blitzing Josh anymore or better stated, our offense. Specifically in the 2nd half of last year. Now is it because the line? Poor WR's? Coaching? Josh? It could obviously be any of those things or all of those things, but whatever it is seemed to work rather well and it stands to reason we will keep seeing it until we show we can handle it.
I get that, sure. I'm just responding to the comments in your original post where you were drawing several conclusions about what happened and why. Yes, we know what the end result is, but understanding why is the key to knowing how to best address it.
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14 hours ago, Mikie2times said:
In two games last year, the Jets allowed a combined 352 yards passing. They Blitzed Josh just 9 times in two games. Individually, each match up ranked in the top 4 least blitzed games Allen saw last year.
Allen tried to throw into this look the first game. His air yards per attempt ranking 4th highest for the year in that match up. It wasn't a good result and played right into what the Jets wanted. In the 2nd game, Josh reined it in more averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt which ended up being a full 4 yards less than the first game. In both games the results of those completed passes were in the bottom 5 games as far as length of completion. First game going for 6.4 yards per completion and the second going for a season low 4.6 yards per completion.
The Jets, as much as anybody, do not think Josh is willing to take underneath throws. They won't blitz, they will flood the zone, they will beg Josh to beat them downfield. They play the same style of defense the Steelers used against us in the 2021 opener and that teams started playing more in the 2nd half of last year as Josh saw the Blitz nearly stop completely. When Blitzed 6 times or less last year, Josh passed for 147, 172, 197, 205, 223, and 254. All 6 games happened week 9 or later. Teams do not think Allen is able to take what the defense gives him. They want him to drive the length of the field in boring fashion. On our side we really need to show the NFL early that we will feast underneath if you give it to us. IF we can do that it will open it up deep later on.
A pretty game for Josh is a whole lot of check downs. Underneath throws. About 200 or so yards and a solid completion %. Keep the chains moving. Do not let the first game excitement get to you.
This is a nice analysis, but it's a good representation of the classic problem of having observational data and then trying to generate a causal narrative that explains it.
Did teams realize that Josh does better against the blitz and thus stop blitzing him? Did teams realize that Josh doesn't like the short underneath throws and thus stopped blitzing him to force him to do that? It's hard to say what the cause was just from looking at the data.
We all know that every team, every defense, would prefer not to blitz if they didn't have to. If your four-man rush is effective at getting to the QB, that gives you the ability to keep extra men in coverage, making the passing game more challenging. Sure, they'll throw in a few blitzes here and there to confuse things, but I think it's fair to say that pretty much every defensive coordinator dreams of having a defensive front four that allows them to blitz judiciously.
That said, did teams stop blitzing Josh because they had strong front fours and didn't have to blitz? Did the Bills offensive line get banged up and worse during the season, making even mediocre front fours more effective? In other words, did teams stop blitzing Josh not because he's good against the blitz, or because they wanted to bait him into underneath throws, but because they just didn't have to blitz at all?
That's more along the lines of what you want to try to answer, assuming you're looking for the causal explanation to the data you've observed. Nice work to this point! Generates good discussion, which is what we want.
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31 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:
Apologies if already posted. I've been searching for one of the old channel 2 Ed and the boys episodes for years, and now we have one after RJs passing. RJ, Ted Darling, Jim Kelley.....and Robitaille chain smoking lung darts. Classic!
Wow, I had forgotten all about that show. Great stuff! Seems like they should be playing cards while they're talking.
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12 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
1992!?!?! You were an early adopter. How did everyone compile the stats?
Fantasy football back then was quite the adventure. Required a lot of pencils and calculators, as I recall.
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Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:
But the fans are running away with he's the guy now and that's simply not the case. Gonna be a lot of "when are we going to activate Kirksey?!" posts in the future from a lot of the posters on this thread.
Well, if we get run on badly the first few games, those calls would probably be justified...
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Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:
If they truly felt as fans do that he's an immediate upgrade and needs to be put in the starting lineup sooner than later, they wouldn't have put him on the Practice Squad.
If I had to guess, I'd say they put him on the PS because he's not up on the defensive scheme and calls. Don't want to waste a roster spot until they know he's got everything down and can play. Remember, he's the guy who would be receiving the plays and calling it out to the defense, getting everyone in place. Takes some time to get comfortable with the coaching staff and others on defense.
Keep the roster spot for now for the guys who have been in the system and can jump in on a moment's notice.
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Just a little something to keep in mind...and interesting in light of the Bills losing three of their cuts to waivers this year...
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You'd think this was the start of free agency or something...
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2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:
Can they steal that kid from the Bears? He sounded like he was headed for the Practice Squad.
He's looked good enough that I'd be surprised if the Bears tried to stash him.
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On 8/24/2023 at 4:59 PM, The Jokeman said:
I wonder if it open up for us to trade for Colt McCoy?
McCoy was just released. He's a free agent now.
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@Alphadawg7 is catching some heat for this take, but I for one appreciate the thought-provoking question.
It's true we have a lot of good players at CB right now, but I have to think that the phrase "you can't have too many good corners" is one that can be taken literally.
Then again, everything has its price. If someone is willing to give up a promising player at another position in exchange for him or any of those corners, I think Beane is one to listen. I don't think he's going to get anything worthwhile in a 1:1 trade, but if he is packaged with a late-round pick next year, it might be enough for someone to offer a MLB or OT to make him really consider it.
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3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
And the Ravens 7 year preseason winning streak didn't exactly translate to elite play in the regular season with only 1 playoff win through that time.
Holy smokes. I hadn’t really thought about it before, but if you had asked me before reading this, I never would have guessed it was just one playoff win! Ravens seem to have built an interesting narrative over this time…-
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1 hour ago, QLBillsFan said:
Edwards can fill in well. Always concerned about overall depth when a starter goes down. Kromer needs to really step up this year. He has to get SB on track.
I watched Edwards a bit during that Pittsburgh game, and I have to admit I was pretty impressed.
The Jets starters are a teeny bit different than the Steelers backups, but still...
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I would give the Bills the edge at QB, TE, and probably S. That's about it. The rest are either pretty close, or in the Dolphins favor. Overall I'd say the Dolphins roster is confidently better. Not a landslide, though, especially because of the bonus advantage we have with Josh.
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11 minutes ago, Billl said:
No way. Sacks are just too hard to get these days. The quick passing game barely existed back then.
Agreed. Even though passing has increased over the years, the quick, short passing game is a big part of that, and it decreases the chance of getting a sack. QBs are now routinely rated for their “time to release” with emphasis on those who make quick decisions and get rid of the ball fast.-
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16 minutes ago, JDubya76 said:
Good lord, the dolphins are like the Toronto Maple Leafs, anyone worth a crap is going there first. In the NFL I guess with all trades and FAs Miami gets right of first refusal?
As long as the Pats**** get a compensatory pick, yes.
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Can't believe nobody has said "bUt CaN hE pLaY RT?" yet
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5 hours ago, TPS said:
I used to live a few houses down. Joe, the owner, is a great guy.
Agree, spent a little time talking to him, he’s very cool. -
I think it probably comes down to which of the two, between Isabella and Shorter, are more likely to make it through waivers so they can be stashed on the PS. From what I read, I think Shorter would probably get snatched up before Isabella. My guess is Isabella makes it onto the PS this year and possibly gets called up.
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On 8/14/2023 at 3:32 PM, boater said:
Here's a map I made of where to get good Wings and Beef on Weck. Visit one near your hotel.
Anyone with feedback can reply here.
Cool! I did something like that years ago...looks like it was 2016. I'm sure some of it is way out of date now, but in case there are some on there that you could use...
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On 8/14/2023 at 6:52 AM, TPS said:
If you want the Elmwood experience, and to treat the wife, try this place: https://www.innbuffalo.com/
Stayed there a couple years ago, it's fantastic. And in a great area if you like the hip Elmwood shops and stores. I'd definitely stay there again.
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1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Needless to say, Blindside II will be a great movie.
Now THIS is the content I come here for!
😆
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I'm fine with their offense being spotty to start the season, but that defense is going to cause problems for us like they did last year. I mean, they beat us last year with a powerful defense and a crappy QB. It's not like they need to improve dramatically on offense to take us out. I like our chances but it's not going to be a cake walk even if Rogers is sulking and causing trouble.
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Not me, I've been waiting and waiting for it...hoping it arrives before the first preseason game...
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Past Bills teams' Offensive Plays you would like to see Dorsey incorporate in 2023 Bills offense
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
A screen pass that works.