JDG

I don't know why I am wasting my time. 1) How many teams have gone from 3-13 to winning the Super Bowl? And do we really expect to duplicate them. 2) Do Spikes and Fletcher and everyone else over 30 really only have one more year of valuable contributions left in their career, or might they still be productive players 2, 3, or 4 years from now - when you ostensibly plan on winning the Super Bowl? 3) If Ralph Wilson dies during an extended period of terrible football (i.e. 3-13 terrible), how likely are the Bills to remain in Buffalo? And if the Bills win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles, will you care? 4) What is the highest number of great players an NFL team has added in a single year through the draft and undrafted free agents? If the Bills add to their holes by cutting Spikes, Fletcher, and every other player over 30 could the Bills seriously expect to fill all of those holes with Super Bowl-caliber talent in just one or two offseasons? For the most part in the NFL, winners are *built*, they are not just flashes in the pan. There's the occasional exception like Carolina or the original Rams, but teams build up to Super Bowls, they are rarely just flashes in the pan. And only the original Rams, who caught lightning in a bottle with Kurt Warner truly went for abysmal depths to the Super Bowl in just a year like you are proposing - and the Rams had a lot of core veterans like Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk... they weren't getting rid of all their 30+ year-olds. The draft is a crap shoot dude, and just giving a player "experience" isn't always going to make them better. You don't get better by creating more holes to fill. Dude, there are 32 teams in the NFL, and the Bills will need a bit of *luck* as well as skill, to be on of the 3-max teams that will win a Super Bowl in the next three years. I know you're bummed out about this season, but while cutting everybody and replacing them with undrafted free agents who look good in training camp will make you feel better - it ain't gonna make the Bills better, and when the Bills are drafting #1 overall next year, you will feel even worse - and the Bills will be even further from the Super Bowl than they are now. JDG

Agreed, cutting Spikes and Fletcher and everyone else over 30 has to be one of the dumbest ideas proposed by anyone on the Board ever.... JDG

Why are you so convinced we couldn't be 3-13 next year? With Losman as the starter anything is possible..... JDG

Milloy looked like cap bait to me long before the Cover 2 came along. He got burned way too many times this year, and had too few big hits and big plays. Considering that cutting him saves a couple mil against the cap, his time was probably numbered... JDG

Bill Parcells refused to deny that he had told his players to fake injuries.....

Those are some good players, but if they bring Frerrote, Feely, or comparable in at QB, or go with a rookie, I won't be too worried. JDG

Why *can't* I tell you that Saban isn't an excellent coach? Is it because of his whopping 9-7 record this past season? And please tell me if Cleveland was one of the teams they weren't supposed to beat? I'll be honest, and I'm *not* going to say that Saban is definitively not an excellent coach. I will say, however, that Nick Saban did *not* demonstrate that he is an excellent coach this past season. Let's be honest here. If Matt Kassel completes his last pass against Miami, there is *no* six game winning streak, the Dolphins finish 8-8, and there probably isn't much of a Nick Saban boomlet among Peter King, Len Pasquarelli, and the rest of the National Football Media. And its pure garbage anyways that Belichick was playing Matt Kassel, as he *should* have been fighting for the #3 seed and a realistic opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game. But it is what it is, and so please forgive me for not fawning over Nick Saban's ability to beat Matt Kassel. JDG

Doh! Yes, he's at NC State, or at least *was* at NC State last season. Sorry.....

The Nick Saban/Fish boomlet is one of the most baffling things about the National Media's coverage of the NFL. Let's consider their vaunted "six game winning streak": 4-win Oakland, 5-win Buffalo after the Bills blew a 21 point lead, the 9-win Chargers who were suffering a let-down game amidst the toughest schedule in NFL history, the 4-win Jets, the 4-win Titans, and the Matt Cassel & Co. New England Patiorts - who still took the Fish to the final play of the game! So, please don't talk to me about the "6 game winning streak", what people really mean is that they are projecting the Fish to be good solely on the basis of upsetting the San Diego Chargers on the road in a major, major, "let down" game for the Chargers - who were looking ahead to playing the undefeated Indianapolis Colts for their playoff lives the next week. Meanwhile, conveniently forgotten in the Nick Saban lovefest is 22-0. To the Patriots? Nahh.... to the Cleveland Browns. Think about that for a moment. To put it short-and-sweet, the 2005 Fish are the most over-rated NFL Team since..... well, the 2004 Buffalo Bills. JDG

Marc Trestman would be an interesting pick. I don't know if Miami would give permission for him to go within the division. Caldwell is another interesting choice, but it would be highly unusual for a team to hire a failed HC candidate as a Coordinator. Thus, I think he is unlikely. Another name, albeit one we won't get, is Paul Hackett. Hackett is famed/reviled for his ultra-conservative approach to offense, but has developed a number of QB's, including Chad Pennington in New York and turning around the career of Rich Gannon (who could be a good moulds for Losman.) His ultra-conservative approach would also match Jauron's style very well. The only downside is that he's currently employed in the Tampa black hole, and they will almost certainly not give him permission to leave. JDG

Well, I tried to keep the analysis as objective as possible - and talent evaluation is inherently successful. What is interesting to note, however, is that I don't think there is really much disputing of the groups I established for the coaches. i.e. you can't really take many of the ones in "Group 4" and argue that they should have been in "Group 5." Maybe Joe Bugel just never had any talent to work with - but on the other hand, it seems unlikely that he ever could have been a "savior" type coach in Group 4 - had he gotten a third chance. So, I think the analysis is still usefull. JDG

I think that in about 6-10 years, it is going to be veeeeeery interesting to redo this analysis, with Gregg Williams' second HC'ing stint factored in. And we'll always have to wonder how things would have been different had not Donahoe thrown Gregg Williams "under the bridge" by letting him play out a lame-duck contract, and using the 1st round pick on a guy who couldn't even play in Gregg Williams' contract year. JDG

Two more names to add to the list: Tim Brewster, TE Coach, Denver - Signed and coached Antonio Gates as an undrafted free agent. As a college coach at North Carolina, developed Freddie Jones and Alge Crumpler. Recruited Vince Young to Texas. Was given big money by Denver after his contract expired in San Diego, and spent last year working with Gary Kubiak and Mike Shanahan. Ken Zampese, QB Coach, Cincinnati - Developed Carson Palmer over last three years in Cincy. Spent previous three years in Asst. Offensive positions of increasing responsibility with the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams. Was a QB Coach and passing game coordinator at Miami U. in the Fun'n'Gun MAC, when Miami averaged 37.4 ppg.

The more I think about it Kultarr, the more I keep coming back to your post. I think I have to agree that there are a few coaches who were very successful at inheriting outstanding programs, and keeping a good thing going. These coaches either don't have the "boot-strapping" skills to be a "program saviour" or else their previous HC'ing stints simply never developed these skills in the first place. In any event, I'll definitely be even more cautious about looking to inheritors of "Golden Ages" as recycled HC'ing candidates in the future. JDG

Bruce Arians, WR Coach, Pittsburgh - The guy took Kelly Holcomb to the playoffs as OC in Cleveland, and they put up 36 points on the road against the Steelers in the playoffs. He could be a great guy to catch lightning in a bottle again with Holcomb, and the Steelers have been awesome the last two years. Mike Heimerdinger, OC, NY Jets - 'Dinger has made it abundantly clear that he wants out of New York and no part of the Mangini regime. Taking a coach from a division rival is often a decent idea. 'Dinger helped turn Steve McNair into an NFL MVP in Tennessee, and had many great years there. He's also a guy who will probably want to run his own show, which is exactly what the Buffalo situation offers him. Unfortunately, it looks like he's going to go to Denver, where his former college roommate is the HC. Peter Vaas, QB Coach, Notre Dame - He's a Notre Dame guy, and he's only been there one year, so its hard to know if he'd leave. Still, just look at what he did with Brady Quinn this year, and even one year with NFL Nobel Prize winner Charlie Weis is a recommendation. Vaas also produced a lot of success with the pretty thankless job of being an NFL Europe Head Coach. His earlier coaching stints in the lower college ranks, and two years as an ND Asst. in the early '90s are all marked by success as well. Mark Whipple, QB Coach, Pittsburgh - The job this guy has done with Roethlisberger is simply amazing. Last year they went 15-1 with a "just don't lose philosophy" with Big Ben. This year, he's completed the devlopment, turning Big Ben into a true NFL starting QB who has just led his team to three straight road wins in the very, very, tough AFC and a Super Bowl berth. JDG

LeBeau was a free agent when he left. JDG

Exactly. Marv's in the Hall of Fame, and the HOF is forever. So he isn't exactly in an "all in" situation like George Seifert, who went from near surefire HOF to basically "no shot" by taking the Carolina job. JDG

True. But I started off my analysis by only including "recycled head coaches" who were hired for the second time in the modern era of the 12-team playoffs for consistency. And going further, I decided that I really needed to exclude those "recycled head coaches" whose first stint occurred back in the 1970's, also in order to preserve the fairness of the comparison. Thus, while the list does exclude Levy, it also excludes Jack Pardee, so I hope that it more-or-less balances out. JDG

Thanks. Its a shame that Leo Roth didn't hire me to do this before writing his column this morning, such as when he wrote: "History shows that head coaches given a second chance generally do better their second time around. " Actually, history shows no such thing. JDG

For sure, though in fairness, JJ set those own expectations for himself. Dave Wannstedt is another one, who off hand we would probably consider a failure in Miami, but in reality had a very strong overall record. Both JJ and Wannstedt's perceptions are probably affected by their perceived tendency for late-season collapses, which of course does not come out in this data. I actully was curious as to what definition of "success" I would use, and was a bit surprised to see that success darn near defined itself. Leaving aside my "Group 2", a successful coaching stint was generally an average of 8, and usually 9, or more wins with playoff berth in 50% of seasons. Unsuccessful coaching stints involved less than 8, often much less than 8, average wins, with only one playoff berth, if any. There were very few borderline cases. I have to disagree with your proposal that a Final Four appearance is required for a successful season. For one, that sets the bar for success too high - only 4 out of 32 teams. And it would completely skew the data, turning Bill Parcells into a near-failure in Dallas, and making others harder to judge. Moreover, I don't think that corresponds to reality - yes Indy fans are hungry for a Super Bowl - but how many fans of other teams wouldn't get on their knees and beg for a run like Indy's current one? Finally, I think it fails to control for strength of competition compared to other measures. For example, if you get to 10 wins and miss out on the playoffs because its a very tough year, I'm not going to hold that against you. (But in the converse, if you do make the playoffs with a weak record, I do count that in your favor, because just playing in the postseason tournament can take the sting off of a lot of other shortcomings.) So, while there is no doubt some disappointment in Indy, I think that overtime they will appreciate being the first team to clinch the #1 seed undefeated since 1972 (I think) and recognize that they still had a great run. Four months of ecstasy, followed by one month of disappointment is still superior to the four months of disappointment that Bills, Lions, and Cardinals fans are suffering through. Indy is just the victim of an extraordinarily unbalanced League, one in which 6 (Colts, Pats, Steelers, Broncos, Bengals, Chargers) of the Top 6-8 teams (Seahwaks and Panthers) were all in the AFC. If the Colts were in the NFC, they would have cruised to the Final Four - ditto if the Colts were playing in the early 90's AFC our Bills played in. So, I keep that in perspective. JDG

Eh, actually apparently I have one..... ;-) And its only ancient history in the NFL, where the game has evolved a lot since then..... JDG

A very fair point. Although Wannstedt might be a really good coordinator - he certainly had a great run in Dallas, and his Miami defenses as a coordinator were pretty good too. But it certainly is worth pointing out that Jauron did not make a case for himself as a "standout coordinator" during the last two years in Detroit, during which the Lions' defense was sub-par. I think we can pretty comfortably say that he has not shown evidence of being a Belichick or Shanahan scale "genius." So, what else can be said from this? This was an interesting analysis, especially since I didn't know how it would turn out once I started. For example, by pure numbers alone, Parcells isn't the most standout of the "Group 1" candidates until you realize *where* he did what he did - and certainly I had a new appreciation for Marty Schottenheimer's accomplishments. And it is amazing to remember that George Seifiert went from probably being a *lock* for Canton to probably no chance of getting in after three short seasons in Carolina. Anyhow, I've tried to look for some other trends. Among "Group 1" Coaches, all of them, except Dan Reeves and with a very borderline case in Schottenheimer, were coming into "cupboard is bare"-type situations. Well, the pre-Holmgren Packers were at least excitingly mediocre - but no playoff berths to speak of - and Bill Parcells came in after the 1981 strike, the year before which the Giants had (barely) made their first playoff berth in aeons. Still, Johnson, Mora, Dungy, Ross, and Coughlin, however, were all true "saviours." So, that's a minimum of 5 out of 9, and arguably as many as 8 out of 9. In other words, if a first-time Head Coach turns around a flailing team, there is a vert strong indication that they might be really good. Among "Group 5" coaches, 3 out of 7 were clear heirs to a previous "Golden Age" of the franchise - Seifert, Mariucci, and Kotite. Dennis Green also came into a franchise that was hardly "down on its luck", having just come off two mediocre years following three straight playoff appearances. Meanwhile, Mike Ditka came into a team that was comfortably mediocre. Only Dom Capers and Buddy Ryan were true "saviors" in this group - and some might quibble with my assessment of the pre-Ryan Eagles. So, to twist the analysis around, at least 5 out of 7 and arguably as many as 8 out of 9 or 10 "savior" first-time head coaches went on to be really, really, good. 3 out of 3 first-time coaches who found success as inheritors to a "Golden Age" went on to become failures - which doesn't bode well for Mike Sherman's future success, as he is a clear "Golden Age" inheritor. Toss Reeves and Green into that mix, and it becomes 4 out of 5. Still pretty disheartening for Sherman's prospects. So, what about the "Group 4" coaches? Belichick started off with a bad year, but then was trudging along in mediocrity, finally pulling an 11-5 with a playoff win in his fourth season. The next year, the rug was pulled out from under him with the move to Baltimore, and the city change almost demanded a head coaching change. Shanahan, meanwhile, got less than two years, remaining firmly mired in mediocrity for those two years, before the mercurial Al Davis dumped him. Pete Carroll only got a year, after which I believe that new ownership of the Jets forced him out. Finally, the most mysterious of the group is Dave Wannstedt. The best thing he had going for him were two 9-7 years, one of which produced a playoff win. He somehow went on to future success in Miami - but that may have been a product of inheriting the oustanding franchise of Don Shula and Jimmy Johnson. Still, that means 2, and arguably 3 of the four "Group 4" coaches were forced out of their positions due to external factors, management changes/conflicts. As for Jauron, as I see the case for him, after two sub-mediocre years he pulled the "miracle" 13-3 year. As someone else pointed out - when Mularkey got a great schedule, the best he was able to do was 9-7... with arguably much more talent.... Jauron after all was coaching a team that blew high draft picks on Curtis Enis, Cade McNown and David Terrell In the middle of this, a new GM comes in who wants to hire his own guy, but politically is unable to do so after Jauron goes 13-3 with Jim Miller and Anthony Thomas. The next year, the Bears had to play all of their games in Champaign, and the wheels came off, producing Jauron's worst record as a HC. Once again, however, the new GM can't fire Jauron just one year removed from being Coach of the Year and coaching under such circumstances. The next year, Jauron starts turning the ship back around, but only gets up to 7-9, and the GM has the opening he needs to get rid of him and bring in Lovie Smith. I'll admit that its not a *strong* case. His "resume capsule" I wrote up, and his average of 7 wins, for example, are most comparable in the below list to Dom Capers and Norv Turner. That's hardly inspiring. Take out the Champaign year, though, and his average wins rises to a much more respectable 7.75. Meanwhile I do feel, however, that there is at least a chance that he could be good in Buffalo (at least enough to put him into "Group 2" if not "Group 4") - and I believe that there is a higher chance of him being good in Buffalo than Mike Sherman, based on the analysis above. Moreover, I do think that he's the right "fit" for Marv Levy, and as long as we are stuck with Marv as GM (a decision I do not and did not endorse), I think that the Bills, as an organization, at least make the best of the situation by picking a HC who is a good fit for the GM team in place. I just hope they make something of it. JDG

I'm given this its own thread, but it is really inspired by SDS's post: Unable to resist a suggestion for analysis, I decided to take a look at Recycled Head Coaches of the past decade or so. I've divided them into a number of groups. Scott is definitely right to the extent that the group of coaches who have been consistently successful is a long one: Parcells, Jimmy Johnson (his years in Miami were a success by any normal measure), Schottenheimer (a success by objective standards), Holmgren, Dungy, Coughlin, Jim Mora vs. 1.0, Bobby Ross, and Dan Reeves (had a rough stint in New York with the Giants, that was maybe too short bsed on his success in Denver and Atlanta). After this group, there is a small group of recycled coaches of short tenure that are a mixed bag of results - Wade Phillips and Ray Rhodes. Phillips and Rhodes fall into this group because neither their 1st stint nor their 2nd stint can readily be described as a clear success nor as a clear failure. I also include Dick Vermeil in this group, who couldn't really produce clear-cut success in the killer AFC West with the Chiefs, and who probably would have been an utter failure with the Rams had he not caught lightning in a bottle with Kurt Warner. The third group is the complete and utter failures both times around. There's five of these: Norv Turner, Dennis Erickson, Lindy Infante, Bruce Coslet, and Joe Bugel. The fourth group, however, the "Cinderella" success stories, is similarly small. I can find only four of these: Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan rose from mediocrity to sterling heights. Pete Caroll had a rough year and went on to success in New England, before being dumped once New England had a shot at Bill Belichick. And perhaps surprisingly, Dave Wannstedt, who actually had a solid run with the Dolphins. It is interesting that of these four, two had only very short stints in their first gig. Only Belichick and Wannstedt had extended stints of mediocrity before reaching success. Finally, there are the successful coaches that went on to failure. There are some spectacular collapses in here: George Seifert, Mike Ditka, and Steve Mariucci. Other failures include Dennis Green (so far), Buddy Ryan, Rich Kotite (surprise!), and Dom Capers. Not Rated: Ted Marchibroda, Tom Flores, Sam Wyche, perhaps a few others I'm missing (but all would fall into "failures" category if rated.) So, what does all of this mean? Leaving completely aside the "unrateds" and "mixed bags", I've rated 16 "recycled coaches" as having had success in their first stint. Of these, 9 went on to further success, and 7 went on to failure. Toss in Marchibroda, Flores, and Wyche and that goes to 9-10. Meanwhile, I've rated only 9 recycled coaches as having failed in their first stint. Of these, 5 went on to further failure and four went on to further success. The data on this latter group, however, is definitely hampered by the fact that only Belichick and Wannstedt have recently gotten chances after a multiple-year stretch of mediocrity. Overall, however, I do not find strong historical evidence that in a comparison of two fired first-time head coaches that the one who had previous success is the one most likely to be successful in his second HC'ing stint. The evidence is that a first-time recycled successful HC is only a .500 proposition for future success, while there isn't much data on recycling a mediocre HC (but that data does sit at about .500 for what it is worth.) I'll close with the raw data I used for this analaysis, including Jauron's and Sherman's numbers for reference: Dick Jauron Chicago - 5 Seasons, Avg 7 wins, 1 Playoff Berth with 13-3 year Mike Sherman Green Bay - 6 Seasons, Avg 9.5 wins, 3 Playoff Berths First, those recycled Coaches who have been consistently successful: Bill Parcells: NY Giants - 8 Seasons, Avg 9.6 wins, 2 Super Bowl Wins, 3 Playoff Berths New England - 4 Seasons, Avg 8 wins, Lost Super Bowl, 1 Playoff Berth NY Jets - 3 Seasons, Avg 9.7 wins, 1 Final Four Dallas - 3 Seasons, Avg 8.3 wins, 1 playoff berth Jimmy Johnson: Dallas - 5 seaons, Avg 8.8 wins, was 1-15 in first season, Avg is 10.75 otherwise, 2 Super Bowl wins and one other playoff berth Miami - 4 seasons, Avg 9 wins, 3 playoff berths Mike Holmgren Green Bay - 7 Seasons, Avg 10.5 wins, 1-1 in 2 Super Bowls, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoffs, 6 Total Playoffs in 7 Seasons Seattle - 6 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 1 Super Bowl ?, 3 Playoff Berths Marty Schottenheimer: Cleveland - 4 Seaons, Avg 10 wins, 4 playoff berths, 2 Final 4s Kansas City - 10 Seasons, Avg 10.1 wins, 1 Final Four and 6 Playoff berths Washington - 1 Season, 8 wins San Diego - 4 Seasons, Avg 8.25 wins, 1 Playoff Berth Tony Dungy Tampa - 6 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoff Berths Indy - 4 Seaons, Avg 12 wins, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoff Berths Tom Coughlin Jax - 8 Seaons, Avg 8.5 wins, 2 Final Fours - including one 14 win seaons, 2 Playoff berths, finished with three straight sub-500 records NY Giants - 2 Seasons, Avg 8.2 wins, 1 Playoff Berth Jim Mora New Orleans - 11 Seasons, Avg 8.5 wins, 4 playoff berths, finished 8-8, 7-9, 7-9, and 3-13 Indy - 4 Seaons, Avg 8 wins, 2 Playoff Berths Bobby Ross San Diego - 5 Seasons, Avg 9.4 wins, Lost Super Bowl, 2 Playoff Berths Detroit - 4 Seasons, Avg 7.75 wins, 2 Playoff Berths Dan Reeves: Denver - 12 Seasons, Avg 9.5 wins, 3 Super Bowls, 1 Final Four, 2 Playoff Berths NY Giants - 4 Seasons, Avg 7.75 wins, 1 Playoff Berth Atlanta - 7 Seasons, Avg 7.3 wins, 2 winning seasons, 1 14-win season with Super Bowl berth, and one first-round playoff loss on a 9-6-1 year Next comes a small second group of "mixed-bag" records: Wade Phillips: Denver - 2 Seaons, Avg 8 wins, 1 playoff berth at 9-7 Buffalo - 3 Seasons, Avg 9.7 wins, 2 playoff berths Ray Rhodes Ray Rhodes - 4 Seasons, Avg 7.25 wins, 2 playoff berths with 10 win seasons, finished with 6-10 and 3-13 years Green Bay - 1 Season, 8 wins Dick Vermeil Philadelphia (ancient history) - 6 Seasons, Avg 8.5 wins, 1 Super Bowl Loss, 3 Playoff Berths St. Louis - 3 Seasons, Avg 7.3 wins, 1 Super Bowl Win KC - 5 Seaons, Avg 8.8 wins, 1 playoff berth with a 13-3 record Third group are the complete failures: Norv Turner Washington - 7 Seasons, Avg 7.3 wins, 1 Playoff Berth Oakland - 2 Seasons, Avg 4.5 wins Dennis Erickson Seattle - 4 Seasons, Avg 8 wins and 1 playoff berth (had the infamous Vinny Testaverde helmet play been called correctly) San Francisco - 2 Seasons, Avg 4.5 wins Lindy Infante Green Bay - 4 Seasons, Avg 6 wins, Once 10 win season without playoff berth Indy - 2 Seaons, Avg 6 wins, 9-7 and 3-13 with 1 playoff berth Bruce Coslet: NY Jets - 4 seasons, Avg 6.5 wins, 1 Playoff Berth with an 8-8 record Cincinnati - 4 seasons, Avg 4.4 wins Joe Bugel: Arizona - 4 Seasons, Avg. 5 wins Oakland - 1 Season, 4 wins The fourth group are the success stories: Bill Belichick: Cleveland - First 4 seaons, Avg 7.75 wins, one 11 win season with playoff berth. Was 4-4 in 5th season when Modell announced Browns were moving New England - 6 Seasons, Avg 10.5 2ins, 3 Super Bowl Wins and a playoff berth Mike Shanahan: Oakland - 2 Seasons, Avg 7.5 wins Denver - 11 Seaons, Avg 10.4 wins, 2 Super Bowl Wins, 1 Final Four, 4 Playoff Berths, 7 total playoffs in 11 Seasons Pete Caroll NY Jets - 1 Season, 6 wins New England - 3 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 2 Playoff Berths Dave Wannstedt: Chicago - 6 Season, Avg 6.7 wins, two best years were 9-7, 1 playoff berth, fired after successive 4-12 years Miami - 5 Seaons, Avg 9 wins, 2 playoff berths, a 9-win and 10-win season without playoff berths, followed by a 4-12 season in which he was fired The fifth group are the success stories who went on to failures: George Seifert: San Francisco - 8 Seasons, Avg 12.25 wins, 2 Super Bowl Wins, 3 Final Fours, 2 Playoff Berths, and a Partridge in a Pear Tree (only playoff miss was a 10-6 season) Carolina - 3 Seasons, Avg 5.3 wins, finished 1-15 with 15 straight losses Mike Ditka: Chicago - 11 Seasons, Avg 9.6 wins, won Super Bowl, 2 other Final 4's, 4 other playoff appearances, 7 total playoffs in 11 seasons New Orleans - 3 Seasons, Avg 5 wins Steve Mariucci San Francisco - 6 Seasons, Avg 9.5 Wins, 1 Final Four, 3 Playoff Berths Detroit - 3 Seasons, Avg 5.3 wins Dennis Green: Minnesota - 10 Seasons, Avg 9.7 wins, 2 Final Fours - including a 15-1 season, 6 playoff berths, total 8 playoff berths in 10 seasons Arizona - 2 Seasons, Avg. 5.5 wins Buddy Ryan: Philadelphia - 5 Seasons, Avg 8.6 wins, 3 Playoff Berths Arizona - 2 Seasons, Avg. 6 wins (8 and 4) Rich Kotite Philadelphia - 4 Seasons, Avg 9 wins, 1 Playoff Berth NY Jets - 2 Seasons, Avg 2 Wins Dom Capers: Carolina - 4 Seaons, Avg 7.5 wins, 7-9 as expansion team, Final 4 appearance in second year of expansion, last two seaons were 7 and 4 wins, respectively Houston - 4 Seasons, Avg 4.5 wins JDG

Actually, this is a great point in Jauron's favor. Mularkey took a cupcake schedule, a relatively healthy season, and some decent talent and eeked out a 9-7 season culminated by one of the most embarassing losses in Bills History. Jauron took a decently easy schedule and a talent-deprived roster and went 13-3. That alone should be cause for hope for improvement. Its not luck just any bum can go 13-3 in this League, especially with a bad team, no matter how lucky they are. JDG

Three: San Francisco and a sweep of Tampa Bay. Four other teams were 8-8 or 7-9. Still, considering the talent he had on that team, 6-10 was a reasonable goal, and even with a few fewer bounces he would still have pulled 10-11 wins out of that team. JDG