Reddy Freddy

Love all of these - thanks for sharing. I’ve spent more time than I care to admit looking for the video mentioned in my original post. It’s hard to find! As a side note, one of my other favorite inspirational Bills clips is Marv reciting the Sir Andrew poem (Fight on, a little I’m hurt but not yet slain ...). That one is all over YouTube. Great stuff!

Hello All, As diehard Bills fans, my family and I have often quoted an old NFL commercial (we think?) that included a line that went something like “When destiny strikes, and you know it will, you can say you were there all along.” It was in the context of why fans follow their teams and stay loyal through thick and thin. With the Bills in the middle of a pretty special run, we’ve been trying to find the old commercial, but can’t find it anywhere. Does this commercial ring a bell for anyone else? Any idea where to find it? Thanks very much, and here’s hoping destiny is about to strike!

If this is how it plays out, it won’t really be the Bills’ losses to the Jets or Bengals that bother me. It’ll be the Titans’ losses to the 49ers and Rams. If they had won one of those games, we’d get it under the scenario you laid out above (would put Bills, Titans, and Chargers in 3-way tie at 9-7, which Bills would win). The Titans loss to the 49ers in particular hurt - long, last-second FG by the Niners to win it.

Agree. I think they have a solid chance vs. Rams.

One down, two to go ...

Sorry but we DO get in under that scenario. KC at 9-7 wins the division over the Chargers, so the Chiefs are not up against us in wild card scenarios. If you haven't already, I'd encourage you to play with the ESPN playoff machine. It isn't 100% accurate always, but it's been pretty good lately. Agreed. That Chiefs-Chargers game is tricky, but I think we're in slightly better shape if the Chiefs win. Regarding the bolded part above, it actually doesn't matter what the Chiefs do the rest of the way if they beat the Chargers. All that has to happen are the 3 items I listed in my original post. Assuming the Chiefs beat the Chargers, KC either goes 9-7 or 10-6 and wins the division over the Chargers, or they go 8-8, lose the division, and are below us in the standings anyway (assuming Bills win 2 of 3). In either case, we don't end up in a tie for a wild card with the Chiefs.

Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place. I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in: 1) Bills win 2 of their final 3 2) Kansas City beats LA Chargers this weekend 3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville

It's not this straightforward. We have the tiebreakers on KC and Oak if it's just a two-way tie between us and one of them. If there are 3 or more teams, the tiebreakers are different and head-to-head matters less. I think it's actually better for the Bills if KC wins the West at this point because in a multi-team tie at 9-7, they would beat us out and the Chargers would not.

If the Bills win this Sunday vs Miami, I believe they will be alive entering week 17 no matter what else happens. Tinkering with the various playoff simulators, I can't get a combo where Bills win this week and then have no chance in week 17. Miracle? If Bills beat Dolphins twice and lose to NE, they make it two-thirds of the time, according to the NYT playoff simulator. As it stands today, they have about a 1-in-4 chance. Hardly a miracle. This is so amazingly wrong. They make it at 9-7 65% of the time, according to the NYT simulator, assuming the wins come against Miami. Bills MIGHT need to win out, but it's probable they will only need to get to 9-7.

Thanks for explaining this. I noticed on the NYT playoff simulator that our odds actually IMPROVE if the Ravens beat the Browns next week. I'm still not sure why it would actually help us if the Ravens beat the Browns, but this explains why a Browns win doesn't do much for us.

This is not true.

So this is weird, but the NYT playoff machine actually has us with a better shot at the playoffs if the Browns beat the Ravens next week. I can’t imagine why this would be true.

This is totally false. At 9-7, we’d be better than 50-50 to make it according to the NYT playoff simulator.

The New York Times playoff simulator has the Bills making it about 23% of the time if they win out. Odd as it sounds, I think we have a decent chance of winning out, and I'm not too concerned about passing the Jets and Raiders if that happens. The problem is that KC is almost certainly not going to lose its last 3 games and since Pitt won today it is now very difficult to catch them. Seems very possible that they could lose to Den next week, but it's asking a lot to have either Bal or Cle beat them in the last 2 weeks of the season. The bottom line is that if the Bills and Broncos win next week, things get interesting again.

I agree. In this scenario, we actually have a little better than 50-50 shot to make it, according to the NYT Playoff Simulator.