Orton's Arm

Peters had some good games in 2005, just as Mike Williams did in 2004. It's a tad early to say that Peters will be at least average for a starting RT. As for Baker, if he can be beaten out by Vincent, he's not really the guy you want starting at FS. Hence the drafting of Ko Simpson.

UDFAs are an entirely separate source of value from second-day draft picks. I agree Moorman is very good, and Peters had some good games last year. But other teams find starters through UDFAs too. Had TD done a spectacular job with UDFAs, I could see it compensating for a weak job on the second day of the draft. But a Pro Bowl punter and the chance of a starting lineman isn't necessarily that much better than what other teams have achieved with UDFAs over the last five years.

The Original List - Hiring GW instead of hiring John Fox or attracting Marvin Lewis - Extending Bledsoe after his horrendous second year. - NOT trading down in 2002 take Levi Jones and skip but MW (and also semi-bust party animal McKinnie) at tackle - Hiring MM - Keeping Jerry Gray rather than LeBeau - Failing to resign Pat Williams - Gving in to GW who apparently advoated hiring Kevin Killdrive My Additions - Letting Antowain Winfield walk - Cutting Antowain Smith and using a 2nd round pick to replace him - After going 3-13, TD traded away a first round pick for an aging player (Bledsoe) - Failure to look for the QB of the future until late in his tenure - Trading away a first and second round pick to take a step backward at QB, when the defense was built to win either now or never - Letting Clements' contract expire - Failure to find any starter-worthy players on the second day of the draft, except McGee - Too many WRs and RBs taken early on draft day - Using a second round pick on Josh Reed, when the Bills already had Moulds and Price - Failure to select players with the right mental traits (toughness, work ethic, passion, etc.) - Cutting Ross Tucker - Inadequate attention to offensive line on the first day of the draft - Failure to extend Jennings after year 2 or 3 - Other stuff that I'm forgetting

Short-term moves - Signing Pro Bowler Adams for below market rate - First year performance of Bledsoe to replace RJ Neutral/Other - Tagging Peerless and trading this UFA for a #1 - Waiting out the market and getting a 3rd for Henry - Acquiring WM and managing his rehab resulting in him starting - In 2001 trading down the 1st and still getting the 1st CB taken - FA acquisition of NFL tackle leader last 5 years Fletcher Long-term moves - Extending Schobel long term - Managing us out of cap hell a year earlier than expected - Acquiring major FA TKO - Acquiring and long-term signing of Pro Bowler Moorman - 2nd day drafting of Pro Bowler McGee Long-term subtractions - Letting Antoine Winfield walk very early in his career - Cutting Antowain Smith - The first round pick we gave up for Bledsoe - Letting Jennings walk after four years I divided up Pyrite Gal's list of achievements into three categories: quick fixes, long-term building, and those which didn't necessarily fall into either category. Take the fact the Bills traded away Peerless for a #1. In hindsight this worked out well because Price developed an eye problem. But at the time, it was a decision to trade away one young, promising player (Peerless) to acquire another via the draft. That's a neutral decision; one which seemed positive in hindsight due to the unexpected eye problem Peerless developed. Because TD was given five years of draft picks to work with, it's natural to expect some positive results. McGee, for example, is the only starter-worthy player TD found in five years' worth of second day draft picks. You'll also notice a lot of TD's successes involved RBs. He traded down in 2001, and used the extra draft pick to take Travis Henry. Because he'd added Henry, he cut Antowain Smith. Then TD decided Henry wouldn't last forever, so he drafted McGahee with the pick he got from trading away Peerless. Then he traded Henry away for a third. Of the success stories mentioned, four involve running backs: the Clements trade-down, the trading away of Peerless, the drafting of McGahee, and the trading away of Travis. Give a different GM a team with Antowain Smith but no offensive line, and he might spend a little less time looking for success stories at RB, and more time looking for them elsewhere.

The decline of the Bills' free agents was predictable and unavoidable. If you've got a guy as old as Lawyer Milloy or Troy Vincent, you know it won't be long before age starts to take a serious toll. The problem with relying on free agents as heavily as TD did was that guys don't last very long. Take Chris Villarrial. IIRC, he was one of the highest rated free agent guards the year we signed him. But the very next year, nagging injuries caused his play to be very poor. If you have a bunch of older free agent starters--as TD did--it's only a matter of time before stuff like this is going to happen to many of them. If you know you've got a free agent who may be getting close to the end of his career, you need to have a draft pick waiting in the wings to take his place. The Troy Vincent/Terrence McGee situation is a good example of how this is supposed to work. (I'd actually forgotten about McGee when posting my original analysis, so it's good Lori reminded me of him.) Clearly, the unavoidable decrease in the quality of free agent contributions should have caused an increase in the overall contributions from draft picks. Had TD done his job on draft day and in contract negotiations, the team would have been riddled with young, promising draft picks waiting to replace the declining free agents. Instead, the Bills witnessed an overall decrease in the contributions they received from the players TD drafted.

Evans had 843 receiving yards in 2004, and just 743 receiving yards in 2005. He had 9 TDs in 2004, and just 7 in 2005. Are you suggesting Evans played better in 2005 than 2004, but had fewer yards and TDs because of poor QB play? While Takeo was clearly the best player on the Bills' defense, I felt Crowell played well in his absence. The upgrade from Crowell to Takeo would have helped, but I doubt it would have brought in an extra three wins.

There's a lot of truth to this. Jerry Gray's defenses lived and died by the blitz. Inferior offenses--such as those we often faced in 2004--tended to be lousy at picking up the blitz. The better offenses could, which is a big reason why the Patriots killed us in every game except the Lawyer Milloy bowl. While every team's record will be influenced by the strength of its schedule, the nature of Gray's defense made the schedule especially influential for the Bills.

Nor do I. RJ was considerably more accurate.

I regard Bledsoe as a draft pick as we used a first round pick to acquire him. We also used a first round pick on McGahee. I felt McGahee had a better season in 2004 than 2005. Granted, he had slightly fewer yards in 2004, but many fewer starts. You're right to point out the decline of Eric Moulds' production as yet another draft pick disimprovement. I also agree the Bills got more production out of some free agent signings (Schneck, Moorman, and Lindell) which partially offset disimprovement elsewhere among free agent acquisitions. The problem with having too many free agent starters was the team got old in a hurry. Of course, had TD done a better job with drafting, maybe some of those free agent starters could have been younger, better draft picks. But the point I was trying to make was that the overall production from draft picks declined in 2005, which was a serious reason for the team's decline. Maybe you could argue Clements just had an off year, but most of the other declines were permanent. TD wasn't building towards something; he was watching his Band-Aid solutions fall apart.

The 2005 disimprovement was largely due to draft picks leaving or playing worse: Mike Williams 2004: played well, especially in the second half of the year. Mike Williams 2005: usually benched or ineffective. Jonas Jennings 2004: played well. Jonas Jennings 2005: gone. Drew Bledsoe 2004: respectable Drew Bledsoe 2005: gone Travis Henry 2004: ineffective, but pushed McGahee. Travis Henry 2005: gone. Nate Clements 2004: Pro Bowl-type season Nate Clements 2005: got beaten more often than an egg at a chef school. Draft picks who contributed significantly more to the team in 2005 than 2004? None. The combination of reduced contributions from many draft picks, without new contributions from others, proved devastating. Add in the loss of Pat Williams and Ross Tucker, the injuries to Spikes, Villarrial, and Teague, and there's the reason for the worse record.

You've hit the nail on the head.

While Ramius's post seemed to be about Moorman, it was really about McGahee. People have been saying that McGahee lacks dedication to the team because he's not at the voluntary workouts. Some are even saying this shows a lack of character, and suggesting he may not fit with what Marv is trying to build. Ramius was pointing out Moorman is also missing those required workouts. As you wrote, it would be silly to cut him.

Other than scrambling, precisely what is it that Flutie did to help his team win, that Brister didn't do?

To make up for this, he has Ko Simpson ranked #2.

In all seriousness, this would be a good problem to have. I'm sure we'd both agree Jim Kelly should have been starting back in the early '90s. If another QB can create the same unity in the fan base Kelly did, it means he's doing something right!

The comment you're responding to addressed what Reich achieved in college. The names of the Bills' offensive linemen are hardly relevant to that. My point about Reich was that if you take away his emotional stability, he probably wouldn't have achieved those comeback wins either in college or as a pro. So emotional stability is something you should look for from your QB. You're welcome to disagree with this point if you care to. But it seems like you're getting a little off the subject.

My point was that OJ has done something no other RB has done--2000 rushing yards in a 14 game season. But anything Jim Kelly's done, guys like Montana, Elway, and Unitas have done better.

It's funny. I'd been a strong Holcomb backer, but I'm starting to develop a preference for Nall over Holcomb. Holcomb gives you accuracy, quick decision making, and the ability to dump the ball off when nothing's there. Losman gives you arm strength and a good deep ball, as well as youth and mobility. Maybe Nall can be the best of both worlds.

Do I look like I'm interested in your opinion? Didn't think so.

For some reason, I thought Brown had been "replaced" with Villarrial before the 2003 season. It, ahem, turns out this happened prior to the start of the 2004 season. It looks like can't remember/doesn't matter was playing RG in 2003, not LG.

You're right about the 2003 offense being gutted: QB: Bledsoe. Gone. LT: Jennings. Gone. LG: don't remember/doesn't matter. Gone. C: Teague. Gone. RG: Villarrial. Still here. RT: Mike Williams. Gone. TE: Mark Campbell. Gone. RB: Travis Henry. Gone. WR: Eric Moulds. Gone. WR: Bobby Shaw. Gone. WR: Josh Reed. Still here. So much for TD building any kind of continuity on offense. Meanwhile, teams like the Colts are able to retain guys like Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison for very long periods of time. That's why their offenses produce while ours doesn't.

Let's look at the results of these past Bills efforts. The Bills' offensive line in 1997 had the following players: Ethan Albright Ruben Brown Bill Conaty John Fina Corbin Lacina Corey Louchiey Jamie Nails Jerry Ostroski Mike Rockwood Marcus Spriggs Dusty Zeigler If you're comparing TD to this, you're setting the bar awfully low. But at least the Bills' lines of the 1990s had more continuity than they did under TD. The starting line in 2004 had the following guys: Jennings, Tucker, Teague, Villarrial, and Mike Williams. The only guy left from that list is Villarrial.

Maybe that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Fans think he's on his way out the door to Miami, so they stop supporting him. Willis sees the lack of fan support, gets sick and tired of it, and decides to go someplace else when his contract expires.

As much as I hate him, I'd have to say OJ was probably the best. No other RB has rushed for over 2000 yards in a 14 game season; nor has any RB rushed for over 2000 yards through the first 14 games in a 16 game season. The other candidate would be Bruce Smith; as he's one of the best defensive ends ever. Jim Kelly? He's good, but guys like Elway and Montana were clearly better.