Orton's Arm

Your comparison is invalid, because Dilfer only became the starter partway through the year. Even if he'd produced the same number of yards or TDs per game as Flutie, he'd look worse due to having played fewer games.

Reich also achieved the biggest comeback in college football history. To me, that says something about his level of emotional stability even as a very young man.

Which is a nice way of saying JP doesn't yet have their respect on the field. In any case, I'm curious as to the context in which this came up. Consider these two different scenarios: Scenario A Interviewer: Takeo, tell me about the Bills' quarterback situation. Takeo: Well, first let me say JP is well-liked by his teammates. That said, he's unproven, and needs to earn our respect on the field. Scenario B Interviewer: Is it true Losman is disliked by his teammates? Takeo: Well . . . I guess you could say Losman is liked by his teammates. He just needs to earn our respect on the field. Depending on how the question was asked, Takeo might have been going out of his way to stick up for Losman, or he might just have been politically correct.

Did I use the phrase "all-time greats"? I didn't, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. I was merely saying RJ had potential. I agree his rating was inflated, for the reasons you mention. But even after you shave off a few points to compensate for the fact RJ might take a sack while a different QB would throw the ball away, you're still looking at an accurate passer, who threw a nice deep ball, and who has pretty good mobility. If he'd had a little more toughness, if he'd learned to dump the ball off sometimes instead of taking the sack . . . well, no sense in dwelling on what might have been. RJ didn't acquire these attributes, and he's no longer in football.

The last time I checked, Rob Johnson had a higher QB rating than Jim Kelly. Unfortunately, sacks and injuries canceled out the potential Johnson's QB rating implied.

The Cowboys have the best player in the division in Terrell Owens.

I know you and I have had our differences, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Nonetheless, I agree with the heart of your post. Defenses figured Flutie out. He deserved to be benched for the Tennessee game, because his production had been mediocre during the regular season. The Bills were winning games despite Flutie, not because of him. Johnson had real potential. It's too bad he couldn't learn to sense and avoid pressure; to dump the ball off if nothing was open. That said, I felt he played very well in the second half of the Tennessee game. One play in particular comes to mind. It was 3rd and long, with the Bills trailing. One of Johnson's shoes came off, and it looked like he was going to call timeout to put it back on. Instead, the offense ran a play, and Johnson converted a clutch 3rd down pass to Peerless Price. It was a great play, despite the direction Johnson's career would take.

What's with this thread still being alive?

Funny you should mention Losman. Did I mention I have concerns about him?

If that happens, I bet Levy won't exactly be congratulating himself at having passed up both Leinart and Cutler. That said, I see potential in Nall. During his year in NFL Europe, Nall passed for 2050 yards and 18 TDs. To put that into perspective, Kurt Warner had 50 more yards but three fewer TDs in his NFL Europe season. Not that every NFL Europe star goes on to become the next Kurt Warner. But it'll be nice to see what Nall does. Last week was the first time I watched an NFL Europe game. The quality of play was a lot higher than what I'd expected.

Maybe that's true. But the better teams tend to get more than average performance from their draft picks, while worse teams tend to get less than average production. To keep this from drifting off-topic--for example, with questions about whether Losman will someday be good--I'll look just at who produced what in 2005. Bills' pick: Nate Clements. Comparison Steelers' pick: Troy Polamalu. Advantage: Steelers. Bills' pick: Mike Williams. Comparsion Steelers' pick: Kendall Simmons, G. Advantage: heavily in favor of Steelers. Bills' pick: Drew Bledsoe. Comparison Steelers' pick: none necessary, as Bledsoe wasn't on the roster in 2005. Bills' pick: Willis McGahee. Comparison Steelers' pick: Casey Hampton, NT. Advantage: slightly in favor of Steelers. Bills' pick: Lee Evans (750 receiving yards). Comparison Steelers' pick: Heath Miller, TE (450 receiving yards + blocking). Advantage: Bills. Bills' pick: J.P. Losman. Comparison Steelers' pick: Ben Roethisberger. Advantage: ridiculously in favor of the Steelers. In 2005, the Steelers got a lot more production from their first round draft picks than the Bills did that same year. This goes a long way towards explaining why the Steelers won the Super Bowl, while the Bills went 5-11. Edit: one of the reasons the Bills did better in 2004 than in 2005 was because their first round draft picks produced more in 2004. Bledsoe was still on the roster and producing in 2004. Nate Clements did a lot better in 2004, and Mike Williams was worlds better in 2004 than 2005. Lee Evans also produced more, as did Willis McGahee after adjusting for the number of games played.

I disagree. I feel the draft is the strongest single tool at team building. Look at the Steelers' first round picks from 2001 - 2005. 2001: Casey Hampton. Result: an outstanding NT. 2002: Kendall Simmons, G. Result: a quality starter on football's best OL. 2003: Troy Polamalu, SS. Result: a dominating playmaker for their defense. 2004: Ben Roethlisberger, QB. Result: in 2005, Big Ben posted a QB rating in the 90s during the regular season and the playoffs. 2005: Heath Miller, TE. Result: very encouraging thus far. Compare this to TD's drafting record during the first round: 2001: Nate Clements. Result: regressed considerably after his Pro Bowl season in 2004. 2002: Mike Williams. Result: Bust 2003a: traded for Drew Bledsoe. Result: released after three years. 2003b: Willis McGahee. Result: This was the second time in three years TD used a high draft pick on a RB, despite starting off with Antowain Smith. Thus far, McGahee's been about what you'd expect from someone drafted where he was. 2004a: Lee Evans. Result: chosen 13th overall, Evans has yet to prove he can be the go-to guy. 2004b: J.P. Losman. Result: discouraging thus far. The difference between the Bills' and Steelers' drafting records goes a long way towards explaining the different outcomes experienced by those two teams.

Bear in mind Marv added three DTs to the roster via free agency and the draft. Yes, the Bills could use yet another DT, even if all the new additions work out. But at least the position isn't being ignored.

I'm not exactly lobbying Canton to have TD enshrined into the Hall of Fame. I completely agree that, had he been given extra picks, he probably would have squandered them on offensive skill position players, players where the team was already strong, busts, marginal backups, or guys who would have been allowed to hit free agency after just four or five years. TD was more than just a successful Losman pick away from being a worthy Bills GM. That said, he sure didn't help his situation by spending all those picks on Losman.

And when you're not on an irrational pro-JP rant, you're fun to talk football with too.

I may as well add a dash of unpredictability to my posting record by agreeing with you. Football is a team game. Judging a quarterback by his win/loss record would make sense if the other 52 men on the roster were merely there to cheer him on. Say you put Joe Montana on last year's Texans team, and Ryan Leaf on last year's Pittsburgh team. Odds are Pittsburgh is going to pile up more wins than the Texans. Does that make Ryan Leaf a better quarterback than Joe Montana?

I'll mark this down as the first time a cow avatar warned me I was being led astray!

While I completely agree the offensive line was an embarrassment to the Bills franchise, it still matters who the quarterback is. Holcomb has some limitations, but he's very good at turning lemons into lemonaide. In all the games where Holcomb played start to finish, the Bills scored at least 16 points. That was also the Patriots' minimum points per game--a low water mark they hit twice last year. So the offense could have produced under Holcomb even if (as is likely) none of the added draft picks had been used on offensive linemen. Assuming the three Losman picks A) weren't busts, and B) weren't used on offensive skill players, they really would have helped the team.

Your intuition isn't leading you astray.

Point taken. And yet . . . Bledsoe wasn't there because TD had faith in Losman. Wyche spent all that time over the summer teaching Losman, and not Bledsoe or Holcomb. All those mini-camps and so on were devoted to getting Losman ready. The Bills didn't have that 1st, 2nd, and 5th round pick because TD had faith in Losman. Give the Bills back those picks, give them a better veteran QB situation--either with Bledsoe or with a Holcomb who's been given more snaps in training camp--and the Bills would have had a much better winning percentage than 3-4 would imply.

Well, look at the Bills' front office and coaching staff after JP's first year as starter. Through firings and resignations, the Bills lost the GM who drafted Losman, Losman's head coach, his offensive coordinator, and his position coach. Someone should hand Losman a broom, because that's a clean sweep!

My main concerns about Losman involve his decision-making, ability to see the field, accuracy, and consistency. As for his attitude, Losman is too much of an emotional roller coaster. It's hard for him to get excited without getting overexcited. When he's down, he gets too down. Part of being a successful quarterback is having an even keel; as Frank Reich did in the comeback game. Not every quarterback is going to have a Reich-like level of emotional maturity, but Losman gives you less than the minimum you need. As was pointed out earlier in this thread, Losman probably didn't work very hard his rookie year. Much was made in the media of how hard he worked last offseason getting ready. Assuming the media reports aren't just hype, Losman's hard work was probably an emotion-laden decision driven by his need to win his teammates' approval, and not because of any inner fire. Well, one wonders, does it matter why Losman worked hard, just so long as he did? But if his hard work came because of one strong emotion, what happens when he starts feeling different emotions? Will he continue to work hard? In any case, how can a man who's unable to govern his own emotions hope to guide his team?

That team had no way of avoiding risk. Brees is a risk because of the injury. Rivers was drafted fourth overall, so the Chargers really have to put him on the field at some point to see what he can do. They've had the chance to watch Rivers in practice and the preseason. Most teams are competent enough to use these things to get at least some idea of how ready a guy is.

New England gets away with using lower round draft picks because they're looking for a different type of lineman than most teams. Belichick and Pioli are more willing than most teams to overlook the absence of elite athleticism if a guy has good intelligence, toughness, and passion for football. As for the Colts: I've read their offensive line's inadequate play was a big reason for their playoff loss; and that it's one of their biggest off-season needs. Not to say their line is anywhere as bad as ours, but on the other hand it's not as good a line as Pittsburgh's or Seattle's. As was pointed out, the latter two teams' lines were largely built through high draft picks. Looking at the elite left tackles in the league, a lot of times those guys were chosen very early in the draft (Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli back before he got hurt, etc.) The strategy of building a good line through high draft picks is a good one. Of course, every time you find a good offensive lineman, you have to keep him. You don't let him hit free agency after just four years, as TD did with his lone OL drafting success.

Between the snaps he takes backing up Triplett, and the snaps he takes alongside Triplett on 3rd down, McCargo may well be on the field as much as Anderson. It's at least as important to have a good DL play on 3rd and 7 as it is to have it on 1st and 10.