[Bills vs Broncos-Monday Night Football]

54 minutes ago, Breakout Squad said:

Ughhhh I couldn’t do it. We still have a chance. As bad as we look it’s always refreshing to see the Jets get destroyed at home. 
 

Chiefs are the class of the AFC and look SB bound. The AFC East is still up for grabs. It’s a strange year. It seems like most teams are capable of winning. 

The team that got hammered by Denver is the clear class? Don't seem at all clear to me.

[Josh Allen Slowing?]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

Joe Burrow is only 198 days younger than Josh and gets a serious injury every year. Is their window closing?

I was joking-- My Cousin Vinny reference.  Allen has tons of football left in him at 27.  Look at Brady and Rodgers.

[Josh Allen Slowing?]

He's 27.  His biological clock, and the Bills window of opportunity are-- stomp stomp stomp-- ticking.  😁

5 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Clearly he's washed up at 26

 

[Playoff Chances Across The NFL Midseason]

57 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

For all the love stroud gets... he did lose the H2H matchup 2 weeks ago to carolina and had like 120 yards passing.  

That's so last week.  Anything anybody ever did outside the last 2 hours is meaningless..

[Season on the Brink]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

Miami is more of a pretender than we are, and they have almost as tough a schedule.

 

If we aren't tied w/ them or still a game back when that game comes around, I'll be surprised.  I think we'll still have a chance to win the division that week.

 

 

The Bills did that after the Hail Murray that one year.

 

Last year we started hot & ended cool.

 

I think this team is capable of a strong run.  But it's completely unpredictable as of today. They're in a funk that started in London.

 

That's the hope.  But the hope tank is getting dry, and we need to see some real progress in the next two weeks or it is time to hit the links.

[Season on the Brink]

15 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Yeah i mean, ideally josh would not stare down gabe davis then underthrow him.  that pretty much set the tone for the rest of the game.  let's find some receivers who can get open or a OC that can scheme guys open  becuase outside of Diggs we have none of that

And the Kincaid fumble was a killer

[Season on the Brink]

3 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

 

I always think that the Bills should have splurged and traded for AJ Brown as opposed to the Von Miller splash signing.

Post hoc, maybe.  Ex ante, Von was a free agent and Brown likely would have cost a Bills 1st and 2nd, as Titans got 18th overall and 3rd from Eagles.

[Season on the Brink]

2 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Yeah lets see if we can beat Denver and the Jets before we start anointing ourselves playoff contenders quite yet.  It doesn't seem like there is any urgency in the coaching ranks to change anything so not sure why results would be any different

Perhaps not turning the ball over would be a good place to start.  Teams that are -2 in turnovers lose 84% of NFL games.  To be in that 16% on the road against maybe the hottest team in the NFL is nigh on impossible.  Clean that up and results will come IMO.

[Season on the Brink]

4 minutes ago, Bills4lf said:

With our remaining schedule, if we make the playoffs, we'll be battle tested.

Agree.  Have to win Denver NYJ and Pats at home.  That's 8.  Then 2 wins against Phil, KC LAC Dallas Miami.  If they can go 2-3 in those 5, they will be playoff ready.  But right now it is baby steps.  Need to start looking like a real playoff team.  Starts with not losing the turnover battle.  -2 at Bengals just won't win many games.

[Season on the Brink]

39 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Thanks Dr Phil i feel a lot better now. I think i'll clean my room and do a pushup

Probably couldn't hurt. 😁

[Season on the Brink]

5 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

If the Bills are going to win any more games this year, they are going to have to get much tougher.  They're getting manhandled every game now, they are soft mentally and physically.  The coach is a dunce who thinks he is a genius, but can't answer simple questions in a press conference. It's the Rex Ryan show without any of the amusing aspects.  If we're going to be clowns lets at least have the whole circus

No need to be so bitter. They are not soft IMO-- right now they are not playing their best.  Maybe they can fix it, maybe not,  I don't know as I cannot tell the future.

 

 

 The situation is not your fault and you have zero chance of making it better. .  Walk away for a while and take a deep breath and then see what happens.

[Season on the Brink]

1 minute ago, May Day 10 said:

 

Is that really for the Bills?  I wanted to check but its behind a paywall.  The AFC record made me wonder how that would look 

 

I guess that Chargers game could be really big for a tiebreaker.  Especially with a loss against the Bengals already, who may also be a wildcard team.  

It likely won't come down to tiebreakers.  There almost certainly will not be 4 teams in AFC non-division winners.  Bills won't make it with 9 wins due to tiebreakers however.

[Season on the Brink]

4 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

 

Ill also add that the Broncos are no joke now and are coming off a bye, and the Jets defense has the Bills dialed up.  If those games go poorly, I can see the thing really coming off the rails and drama will rear its head

10-7 will make the playoffs-- any combination.  95% chance on NYT predictor.  Like last year some 9 win teams will get wild card slots, like Miami and NYG last year.  

[Season on the Brink]

Just now, gordong said:

stick a fork in them...they are getting a nice top 10 draft pick. hopefully a WR like they SHOULD have gotten this off season. 

If you think that, you should make a large wager.  No way they have a top 10 pick.  Zero.

 

3 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

I don’t know how you could have any optimism. For 5 straight weeks our offense has been bad. We have the firepower, but get little production out of it. 
 

On top of that, we are going into a much tougher portion of our schedule. I can’t imagine us beating KC or the Eagles….Dallas for that matter too. And I think playing Miami in Miami with a completely different, and weaker, defense than the first game, I see that as a loss too. 
 

This team isn’t in a rut. It is just a mediocre team. 

Then you should forget about the team for now and do something more enjoyable than investing emotional effort on an underperforming mediocre team.  Life is too short.  

[Season on the Brink]

3 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

I am not optimistic per se, just stating facts.  Even if they improve, KC and Eagles are likely losses on the road. 

 

I am just choosing for now not to be as unhappy as you are about the team.  If you feel that pessimistic, then just tune the team out for a while, see the results, and if your prognosis is correct you can stay tuned out.  No need to let something like football make you feel bad needlessly.  Because if I do not see wins and improvements the next two weeks, I will make myself turn to other pursuits.  Should not let entertainment make you feel bad. 

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

I'm now more concerned with how we right this ship in the next 2 years and take advantage of JA's career back 9.

Coaching changes and Beane has to be willing to make some tough decisions regarding players and then he has to draft better.

I just don't see this team, righting this ship, this year. My optomism is not blind. There is an underlying fundamental problem and you have to look at common denominators

I agree to an extent.  Something is not right with this team right now.  I do not know if it is fixable or something more deep rooted.  No one outside the team itself does. I am willing to see.

[Season on the Brink]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

As Tony Dungy used to always say,  You need to play your best football in Nov/Dec.   So they better get their act together against Denver and go from there.

Totally agree.  Things can change a lot between now and January.  Seems to me if they can turn this around a bit then the final 5 game stretch will be pre-playoffs playoffs.  But it remains to be seen if they can change or if this is a lost season.

[Season on the Brink]

5-4 with eight games to play.  Not where we thought this team would be.  Not where anybody thought they would be. So where do the Bills go from here.

 

First, the overwhelming emotions that the Bills are done because they lost to Cincinnati on the road are overblown.  Given how all teams are playing so far in 2023, this looked like the toughest game left on the schedule, and most figured they would lose.  So it's not this game, but the overall play the last five weeks.  And the one game the Bills surely would like to have back is the Pats loss-- that was a killer.  Other than that, losing to Jax in London given how the NFL set up that game was also surely a loss too.  So here they are, 5-4, the current 8 seed and out of the playoffs, looking up at teams like Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  So what is next.

 

The Bills have an opportunity now to reset and reemerge in the playoff discussion.  Or this could end up being a lost season, and a reboot will be required to get this team to the upper echelons in 2024 and 2025.  Allen is not going anywhere at 27, and the great Bills teams of the early 1990s began after Kelly turned 30. And with the QB, you will always be good, if not great. So no window is closing IMO overall.

 

So the Bills have two beatable opponents coming up, and a good chance to experiment on offense and to try and find themselves.  They get to do it without crowd noise-- which I think impacted the up-tempo offense in Cincinnati (Allen could not stand at the line and bark out signals as he did against Tampa).  But the Bills can try and get this down at home in the next two weeks, and then try to take it on the road where communication is more difficult.

 

Anyway, since this is all just entertainment and not life and death, I am going to just enjoy the ride for now and see what happens.  We have a lot of strong players on this team, and now we get to see what they are made of in a crisis.  Because it is a crisis.  The next two weeks are must win games, and they need to get their offensive act together and playing Denver first, who Miami beat with 70 points, is a good place to start.  Then a huge step up in class against a really good Jets defense.  We will learn if they are learning.

 

Either they will regroup and find their game, or they won't.  I'm all in for now, but the next two weeks will be the crucible for the gauntlet that is the last six weeks of the season.  It will either be a blast, of I can look to do other things than hanging on what the Bills do during the holidays.  Truly a season on the brink IMO.  

[Is 10 Wins enough to make the playoffs? What is the path to 10 wins?]

3 hours ago, uticaclub said:

What's the point of getting a wild card if we are just going to lose in the first round because we can no longer beat good teams. This isn't 2015 where we would be happy to be there. If we do sneak in the playoffs the chance of us making any noise would be minimal 

But you say there is a chance. 🙂

[some perspective on a down season]

8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Excellent post.

 

And I would bet that in most of the down-year situations that these teams had, there was an underlying reason why the team struggled. Injuries, new/rookie player(s) in key positions, etc.

 

If you told me after the Jags game that the season was over due to all the injuries on defense -- and that the team was destined to lose a lot of 38-35 type games -- I would not have been happy but would have understood. The part that is so discouraging is that it is the offense, which has been mostly healthy, that has not been living up to its end of the bargain. Even against bad teams like the Giants and Pats.

Yeah, it is mystifying how the Bills rank 5th in both points per game and yards per game.  It feels much worse.  I guess a few good games pulls up the averages.

[some perspective on a down season]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

A little closer to home, the Bills under Jim Kelly never had a "trough year" from 1988 to 1996...

1994?

[Bills @ Bengals postgame thread]

31 minutes ago, JohnnyBuffalo said:

You feel that was enough?   The line isn’t giving up pressure with 4 rushing or worse less?   You feel they are able to run the ball when needed?

I did, but I agree that the performance, especially running the ball, leaves a lot to be desired.  OLs everywhere are not great however, and it is hard to have All-Pros at every position.  I think you and I agree, it's just that they thought they had fixed it but they have not.

11 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Who have both played poorly.

Torrence certainly has potential. McGovern just wasn't very good before we got him, and he's not very good now. Add to that the perpetual "project" guy in Spencer Brown, and you still have a poor offensive line.

Well they paid McGovern like he was good, and most reviews I saw of his play for Dallas were good.  The line seemed fine early on, but has regressed, like most of the team.

[Bills @ Bengals postgame thread]

31 minutes ago, JohnnyBuffalo said:

If this team is to do anything with Josh Allen as their QB they need to address the O line.    If there was any semblance of run game and better pass blocking Josh is lights out.   He is more gifted than all the other QBs but he’s exactly the same as them with pressure…every QB makes mistakes with constant pressure.    
 

The O line is what needs addressing first above ALL else.  

They did address it with McGovern and Torrence.  

[Bills @ Bengals postgame thread]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yes, plenty of blame to go around. They just aren’t very good right now. 

Agree.  And the simple fact is that in NFL games, when you are minus 2 in turnovers you lose 84% of the time.  They are certainly not good enough right now to be in that 16% that wins when -2.

[Never thought I'd see a Josh Allen lead team on the outside looking in]

Fact is that winning the Division is likely to be the easiest way in.  That means simply winning the same number of games as the Dolphins until the rematch last game of season.  That will make that game essentially the first round of the playoffs.  Miami has Cowboys and Ravens and @Jets on schedule.  If they lose two, that means the bills can have 6 losses going into that game.  Three and we go to 7.

 

Must win games are Broncos Pats and Jets at home.  Toss up games are Dallas at home, and at Chargers. At KC and Philly are losses.   Need to win toss up games, or steal a loss game.  

 

NYT playoff calculator projects if we beat Pats Jets and Broncos at home, and a win against Dolphins, 73% playoff chance.  If the Bills beat either Dallas or the Chargers too, playoff chances are 90% plus.  

 

As bad as things feel right now, there is still time to turn this thing around as in 2021.

[Bills @ Bengals Game Thread - 2nd Half]

Two turnovers to none.  That explains the game.  Can't do that against a good team.  Losing by 6 is not bad with that.