Yeah, you're right, in a more open format of debating McCain would likely win.
I think its a lot closer than that. Right now, McCain needs just one more state to flop sides (like Minnesota, for example), and he'll be up in the electoral count.
The most important current statistic is that Independents are split into 1/3rds between McCain, Obama, and Undecided. Obama needs to make sure the Independents break for him in a large way.