OGTEleven

My post simply questioned King's assertion that Whitner would be there. It made no value judgement on Whitner whatsoever. It was in plain english. With that said, you and King seem to be playing a zero sum game with your analysis. Let's say the fish hopped us into 14 and picked Whitner. Let's say for whatever reason we really disliked Bunckley. What do you do then? Take a safety with a bad hip like miami? Take a tackle like Justice that subsequently slipped another 20 or so picks? The point is that the Bills targeted the players they liked at their need positions and then went and got them. Time will prove them right or wrong. Your ad nauseum theory that taking "good player a" and "good player b" will inevitably be proven right in your eyes because there are bound to be two good players that were picked between 15 and 32. Then you can play "see I told you so" assuming the Bills should have taken those two particular players.

Who's to say that a team that could not afford to trade up to #7 or higher, but wanted Whitner, might not have been anxious to trade up to #13 or 14? If he is to put 95% odds on Whitner being there at 15, he would have had to know the desires of 32 teams, not just 6 or 7.

8MM

3, 4, 5, or 6 more games like that? Better keep the ER open late in Buffalo and Ott. I don't think I can take that.

Except for Fusaichi Pegasus

Sometimes in the Derby the longshots are actually high quality horses that have just been pointed correctly. Unbridled and Alysheba come to mind. They weren't super long but they fit the Derby real well. Sometimes the prep winners have no business going a mile and a quarter and end up 4-1. See Mr. Frisky. That's why i like AP Warrior a bit. His style was a bad fit in the SA Derby but will likely be a good fit tomorrow. I will buy the notion that closers need some racing luck. That is always true in the Derby (Sea Hero is a good example).

Here's what I have: In my top tier I'm going to play (in order of preference) AP Warrior, Brother Derek, Deputy Glitters My second tier (also in order) is: Steppenwolfer, Bob and John, Point Determined, Sweetnorthernsaint, Private Vow, Storm Treasure, Cause to Believe The Derby is all about value which is why I have Deputy Glitters in my top tier. He will certainly be about 50-1 and he is underrated. He could run dead last but is a value for 50-1 if he runs his race. I'll use all of the horses in my top tier. From my second tier I will only bet the horses (in exotics) that I think present a value after seeing the odds. I put them in sequence of which I think will show the best value. I'll only use a few of them in actual bets. The year Monarchos won I hit the exacta by using Invisible Ink second. He was an outsider with potential and he ran his best race. He was 50-1. The exacta paid big ($1200). You can't cover all the angles, so you might as well cover a few high paying ones. Good luck all.

I purposely do not study too much before the Racing Form for the Derby comes out. This way I don't fall in love with a horse and chase him. With that said, I always at least see some things before I read the form. My pre-form analysis is: I agree with whoever said sometimes a horse gets loose in a race packed with speed but I'm going to take my chances with that. I think Brother Derek has a ton of quality I'm not yet sold on Bob and John or Barbaro but that could change I like what I've read about AP Warrior If you're looking for a real bomber don't give up on Deputy Glitters.

Is it possible that a sentce for this @#% could be too harsh? Even in the eyes of France?

I didn't purposely spell his name wrong but don't care enough to look it up either. What do you all think of his life sentence? Did he win and prove that we are a weak willed nation? Did we win by proving we stick to our principles no matter the crime? Did we win by denying him his desire to be martyred? IMO, he didn't win, but we lost. I'm no big fan of the death penalty. I have mixed feelings about it. Also IMO, if there is a case where it should be used, this is it. Even if 9/11 had been thwarted, this merits death. For this and other reasons I think our court system has been shown as mamby pamby. What are our principles? To try to see gray everywhere? To make sure he gets to speak at his own sentencing? To make sure we hear "both sides" of a story, even when there is only one? Although I feel pretty strongly he should be put to death, that isn't even my own number one concern. Why did this trial take so long? It's 2006. The attacks were in 2001. Why are we compelled to hear every nuance of every angle any idiot can dream up? Why are his lawyers on C-Span claiming this is a victory for everyone? He wants them dead too. I don't like it. What do you think?

I never saw anyone say the refs helped the Pats after the Pats had won a game 49-7 or 56-14.

What does his grandfather have to do with anything?

You wrote: So it's a bad pick unless he's the next Ronnie Lott? To what standard would you hold Bunckley, Ngata, etc? Would any pick at 8 have to be the best in history at his position? I'll accept that safety is not often a #8 position, but it was also a need spot for this team. The players available in the other need spots are where we should make comparisons.

Don't sigh about it because it is exactly what you are doing about Whittner. You are saying we could have done better than him. Who would have been better?

And so far you've named exactly no one you would have taken instead of DW.

It's fine to have that opinion but you sound so definitive. If you are so sure, why not name the player the Bills should have taken instead or as option B with a trade down? By not naming anyone, you don't really back up your opinion.

I live near Albany and have heard that in a couple of different places. One NY beat reporter was on a local sports radio show and said the whole room was confused at the DE pick and thought the Giants needed DT. It does seem to explain a few things regarding the Giants moves.

I'm not sure he hates the Bills as much as he loves TD. It's understandable to defend a friend, but friendship should not impact your professional stance. If your friend screws something up, you tell him.

You want links now? I'm not lying. The TD fauult thing was in a chat and the GM thing was on TV. "Run out of town" implies "not given a fair chance". Mortenson could give a crap about Butler or Polian. TD was certainly given a fair chance. He certainly wasn't solely to blame, but he had a big role.

RW runs GMs out of town? (3 GMs in 17 years) None of the Bills problems are TD's fault? Your standards of disproof are indeed high.

In a nutshell......Yup. I base this on him stating that none of the Bills problems are TD's fault and that RW basically runs GMs out of town. We have had three GMs since Polian took over in the late 80s. What is the average number of GMs per team in that time period? My guess is that 3 is below the average. Ever since this diatribe, I have not seen him say one word about any Bills player, management member or coach that is positive. The math doesn't add up. That's a lot of people for everyone to be an idiot. And suddenly Modrak goes from genius to moron?

The one word that pins Mort is unprofessional. So he is friends with TD. Get over it. I have seen him on three different occasions just slam the Bills out of left field. After McCargo he slammed them again and went back to Whitner. Kiper basically said the Whitner pick was a good one. Mort continues to go out of his way to slam the Bills. In the years TD was here we did no wrong in his eyes. That, my friends, is the work of a hack, not a professional.

So your solution was to keep Donahoe and ax Mularkey? Under this scenario which genius was going to select the next head coach? Would his choice have been equal to or better than Jauron? Maybe we could have gotten the up and coming DC from Eastern Central Wyoming State. Then we could have drafted a 4 foot 9 center to address the OL.

Why not parlay those valuable 2006 round 5-7 draft picks for future value? The Ravens need a punter and the Chargers need a long snapper. Some wise trades in the late rounds, and more in 2007, and 2008 could yield us the entire first round (picks 1-32) in the year 2144. Can you say Super Bowl 2146 Champions. Yeah Baby.

Did thousands of people show up to watch you mase and pay $50 each?