I tend to agree with you. The Patriots are in transition. Bilichick being the coach that he is will still be in the hunt for a playoff position, but it's not a given. The Jets are overrated. Their defense is very strong, but I question how well they'll play as a team. Also, Ryan is a blowhard. They'll do reasonably well and compete for a playoff spot, but again not a given. The Dolphins will rebound from last season and should be in the hunt, but they have weaknesses. The Bills should be better, but also have a tough schedule, but I think they'll still be in the hunt. I think what you have in the AFC East is 4 teams that could all end up near .500 with perhaps just a win or two separating the top team from the bottom team. I don't think a wildcard will come out of the AFC East. I think the division winner will be the only AFC East playoff team.