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Lost

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Posts posted by Lost

  1. 1 minute ago, Roundybout said:

    My post wasn’t a “Coleman vs. Worthy” post. I did not like the pick, but he’s shown skills that have been sorely lacking on our team - a big jump ball catcher. 
     

    My post was discussion of a general concern that our corps as a whole still doesn’t separate well, so it’s on Josh to be very accurate and Brady to scheme them up better.

     

    Now, the separation will certainly improve when Cooper is involved more, but right now it’s not great. 

     

     

    I've always viewed Cooper as a good route runner with some good contested catch ability, not a true separator.   If we're putting any stock in these stats, Cooper's yards of separation is only 2.8 which would put him in the bottom half of the league for starting WRs and 3rd on the Bills.   

     

    Interestingly enough Kalil Shakir is currently ranked 9th in the league with an average separation of 4.3.

     

    https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

     

  2. In regards to the below thread @Roundybout started relating to Bills WR lack of separation.  I think an easy test of whether that actually matters or not could be decided if at this point in time, if people would rather have Xavier Worthy who is undeniably a better separator than Coleman.   According to next gen stats Worthy's avg separation is 3.6 to Keon's 2.2.   I suspect most people after half a season of play to evaluate would rather keep Coleman over Worthy but let's let the votes speak for themselves.  

     

     

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  3. 10 minutes ago, papazoid said:

    you think they are trying to avoid cap hit incentives ?

     

    Contract Notes: 1 yr @ $2.8 mil

    $1.6M guaranteed ($1.0 mil signing bonus + $600,000 of salary)

    Per Game Active Bonus: $30,000 ($510,000)

    Playing Time Incentives
    (non-cumulative)
    58%: $250,000
    70%: $550,000
    80%: $725,000

    Interceptions Incentives
    (non-cumulative)
    2: $200,000
    3: $350,000
    4: $475,000

     

    I swear half of our salary cap is paying for non-contributors.  Some due to injury(Von Miller and Milano have had barely any presence the last two years), Some massive overpays(Knox, Bass) and also some just flat out bad signings(Samuel).

  4. 1 hour ago, thronethinker said:

    Been a little inflation since the stadium budget was created.

     

    They agreed the deal at the height of the post Covid supply chain issues.   Construction costs were already highly inflated at that point.   Stadium probably coulda been built for around 1 Billion in 2019 or 2020.   Hell we could have had an Allegiant stadium for the price we're paying.

  5. At that point in time, RB was probably the one position we really didn't have a need but damn,  the Ravens are paying him the same amount we signed Curtis Samuel for and Henry is having an exponentially greater effect on the Ravens passing game than Samuel is ours.   Cook has been the most consistent piece of our offense this year but he doesn't fundamentally change the way defenses play against us.   Having someone with the physical stature of Henry is forcing teams to bring in an extra LB because he is just trucking over smaller safeties and DBs.   This might rank in the top 5 missed opportunities in the Beane era, right up there with drafting Cody Ford over DK Metcalf.   

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  6. Most will probably disagree with this one but I absolutely loved the 2022 week 10 games against the Vikings.  This was the one where the Bills made a goalline stand to keep the lead with 1 minute left in the 4th, then Josh fumbled on the goal line giving them a TD but we still almost came back and won after that.  From just a football fandom standpoint it was an awesome game to watch.  Pure exhilaration and a nail biter from start to finish.   Good announcers, circus catches by both teams, back and forth til the very end of the game.  Only drawback was we didn't come out on top.  

  7. 7 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

    From Joe B at the athletic

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5825498/2024/10/07/bills-wide-receiver-trade-cases-deadline/

     

    The Carolina Panthers are looking at yet another lost season, and even though they just traded for Diontae Johnson, 28, in the offseason, it might be more worthwhile to move him and collect a young asset in the form of a draft pick. From an on-field perspective, he’s an electric route runner who gains ample separation while slotting in perfectly to meet the current need at Z-receiver. His ability to win underneath is outstanding, and in a two-high-shell-dominated NFL world, Johnson could be a target sponge with an elite quarterback.

    The biggest thing standing in the Bills’ way is that Johnson is in the final year of his contract. He also has a higher cost because of his relatively young age compared to the other top receivers potentially on the market. There would be no guarantee of anything past 2024 if they did it, and that’s a slight risk for Beane and his roster.

     

     

    However, they could look at it as a “try before you buy” situation to see how Johnson meshes with the room and, more importantly, Allen. Johnson’s cap hit is not prohibitive enough for them to rule it out, either. They can make it work. It all depends on trade cost and their willingness to take a slight risk with Johnson unsigned in 2025.

    Diontae Johnson trade cap hits

    WRPre-Week 6Pre-Week 7Pre-Week 8Pre-Week 9Pre-Week 10In-Season Money OwedProrated Rate

     

    Diontae Johnson

    $4,941,176.47

    $4,529,411.76

    $4,117,647.06

    $3,705,882.35

    $3,294,117.65

    $7,000,000

    $411,764.71

    (Over the Cap)

    Verdict: Keep an eye on this one. Johnson has the type of talent to invest in and has several in-prime years remaining. If they’re going for a one-year rental type, it’d be worth seeing how he fits in with the Bills and whether it warrants a contract extension as a pillar player. He could be a star with Allen as his quarterback.

     

     

    Considering the Bills only deal with Carolina and the Giants, this unfortunately seems like it has more probability of happing than I would like.  

  8. 1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

    This is not a good sign, IMO...

     

    Even in their first 3 games when they were scoring a ton of points the Bills were only converting 33.33% of their 3rd downs.  

     

    Now after the last two games that has dropped to 32.14% which is ranked 25th in the NFL.

     

    Over the past 4 years, the Bills have converted 3rd downs at a historic rate never seen in NFL history at 49.8% over that period of time.  That's absurd.  No matter what the down and distance, the Bills converted 1 out of every 2 3rd downs.

     

    Last year they converted 49.39% of 3rd downs, best in the NFL.

     

    It is a very worrying sign that the Bills are not converting well on 3rd downs, even when things were going well on offense.  

     

    To go from 1st in the NFL over the last 4 years to 25th and having over a 17% decrease in efficiency thru 5 games this year is a stunning dropoff. To put it in perspective, both New England and the Jets have a better 3rd down conversion rate than we do.  There is NO WAY that should happen when you have Josh Allen on your team.

     

    If they want to fix this offense, they need to fix the 3rd down conversion rate. The offense is not ever getting a chance to get into a flow because they are constantly in start-stop mode on offense.

     

    Seems like that is where the lack of a #1 WR option comes into play the most...Allen has nobody he can count on in 3rd down situations...Shakir might become that guy but he isn't yet.

     

    Just my opinion but the 12 personnel and other heavy packages are killing this passing offense.   spread out the formation, run either 11 personnel with Kincaid off the line of scrimmage or bring in 4 wideouts and dial up some more quick hitters.   Having extra tight ends in to help block isn't doing much because they're whiffing their blocks most of the time anyway and leaving only 2 pass options which are usually both gonna be double covered.  

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