SaulGoodman
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Posts posted by SaulGoodman
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3 hours ago, pigpen65 said:
3 and long Mahomes is either running it or the refs give them a first down with a penalty. Can't do anything about the refs but keep a spy on Mahomes. Big downs don't leave Kelce uncovered. Seems simple enough but if happens every single game, and was the game winning play vs the Bills last year. Mahomes is going to look for Kelce. Cover the ***** guy.
Don’t you guys think the ref stuff is a little overdone?That roughing call is going to be made 99% of the time. That’s the way they call it now for all QBs.
Allen draws roughing the passer at a far higher rate than Mahomes (and flops for a lot of calls) but I’m betting it would get annoying to hear “the refs will give him a first down,” rather than giving him credit for what he accomplishes.
3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:Has brown looked 100%? I haven’t seen enough of him to be able to tell
He doesn’t seem hindered, although he didn’t have a big impact in the Texans game. Should’ve had that deep ball though. I’m still not quite sure that wasn’t a reception. Didn’t get a very good angle of it. I hate that Andy is so reluctant to challenge.-
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I don’t think doubling Kelce is a good strategy these days. Maybe when he was faster/more dominant and their top WRs were Smith-Schuster, MVS and Toney. But not with Brown, Worthy and Hopkins out there.
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1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
well, you missed the word RUSH before defense in my post which was literally the entire point of the post so this is awkward haha im sorry you felt insulted but it’s entirely due to reading comprehension.
Baltimore and Denver allowed 3.6 ypc and 4 ypc (1st and 2nd best). in the regular season and were 1st and 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game. If we’re talking about total defense I’d agree that KC is right there with those two teams or better because Baltimore and denver were giving up some big passing plays when they had issues. I was specifically talking about rushing though because that’s what the bills like to do
Lol. You're right, I completely missed the word "rush." Probably because I was in a rush. 😄
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5 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
I think the chiefs are gonna have a hard enough time stopping the run especially if it’s gonna be one of those ‘blind eye to OL holding’ games
its flying under the radar but the bills have run the ball effectively on arguably the two best rushing defenses in the league to the point where Payton literally said in his press conference he was baffled by it and I’m sure Harbaugh would agree. The chiefs rush defense is def good/fringe top 10 but ravens/broncos are on a whole other level
Ravens and Broncos defenses on a whole other level? No. Neither are as good, especially with Watson and Omenihu back in the fold.
Not counting Week 18 against the Chiefs' backups, Denver's D allowed almost 30 ppg over their last 5, and were lucky it wasn't worse (Jonathan Taylor's blunder while jogging into the endzone and some other flukery). They allowed 500 yds or just under several times in that stretch. Saying they're on another level from KC's D is an insult.
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57 minutes ago, mjt328 said:
No way.
Their offense was #15 in the NFL in scoring this season. That is easily the worst they have been with Patrick Mahomes under center.
After losing Tyreek Hill, they weren't as explosive. But they were still very efficient with Travis Kelce in his prime.
Now they aren't explosive, they aren't efficient, and they have been suspect at both tackle positions on the O-Line.
I agree the defense has stepped forward as the other side of the ball has gone backwards. Better than 2022, sure.
But that group was absolutely dominant last year. This year I think they are just good. We can absolutely put 30-40 points on them.
PPG doesn't necessarily tell the story. Not to mention, sitting starters and losing 38-0 dropped them several places. KC's offense ranked highly in success rate, EPA/play, dropback EPA, and others. At one point, they had the highest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL in years. It hasn't been a very explosive offense, but that doesn't mean it's ineffective.
Adding Hollywood Brown and making a change at LT has made a big difference too. Not to mention the emergence of Worthy. At one point early in the year, their best WR was Smith-Schuster, who was like the 5th option in a bad NE offense last year. And they were really hindered by Kingsley/Morris at LT.
I know I'd much rather go to battle w/ Hollywood/Hopkins/Worthy/Kelce/Smith-Schuster than Smith-Schuster/MVS/Kelce/Toney/Watson.
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18 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:
And you have decisive evidence with many more data points to prove that certain officials do not influence the outcome of Mahomes games with preferential flagging?
I don't think anybody is going to be able to prove anything either way.
If his record with one official was 50-0, and 10-40 with another, that would be an indicator that something's fishy. But 4-0? For all we know that's 4 games vs bad teams.
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2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:
There is an article on this in The Athletic. I'd encourage everyone to read it. I did some further analysis based on that article. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6074720/2025/01/20/patrick-mahomes-refs-penalties-chiefs/
The answer is yes, for some officials.
Lets look at the details.
Sando analyzed Mahomes' W-L record by referee. You'd expect the average record should be about 75%, given he wins 75% of games.
I've picked out just a few
Ref W-L record
Clay Martin 7-0 (note: Martin was the ref on Saturday. hmm....)
Brad Rogers 5-0
Boger 4-0
Shawn Hochuli 10-2
Cheffers 10-3
Clete Bakeman 6-5
Brad Allen 4-4
If we do a chi square analysis of Martin vs Bakeman or Allen, the outcome (P = 0.017 is highly significant).
Obviously the head referee mostly affects games by late hit calls. The DPI and Hold calls come more from a back judge. But the referee can affect those calls as well, by guiding "principles" of what to call, and guiding discussions about flags.
So me, I'm hoping to see Bakeman or Allen next Sunday. Anyone but the unholy triumvirate of Martin/Rogers/Boger.
I don't think sample sizes of 4 or 5 tell you much.
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1 hour ago, mjt328 said:
The Chiefs are playing in their 7th straight AFC Championship game.
In my opinion, this is the 7th-best team they have fielded in that period of time.
I'd say this year's roster is definitely better than '22 or '23. Much better receiving corps than either team, and much better defense than '22.
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7 hours ago, zow2 said:
The KC board is clowning the Bills. They think it’s gonna be an easy win and our D will get shredded by Kelce, Worthy, Hollywood, DHop, Pacheco, etc. They honestly don’t think it will be a competitive game.
Not sure where you’re seeing this. I have seen a lot of overconfident Bills fans though.-
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6 hours ago, Beck Water said:
And there it is…rules expert Anderson explains that both were called correctly.
The rules might suck, but calling it by the books isn’t evidence of a fix or favoritism.
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4 hours ago, Beast said:
KC had 131 return yds, plus 20ish yds subtracted on an intentional safety.
Both teams had 9 possessions, but only 6 of KC's were actually "drives." One was the safety, another was a kneel-down at the end of the 1st half, and the first possession started at the 13 after the long kick return.
So the Chiefs basically scored 3.3 points per drive and averaged around 40 yds per drive. Texans averaged 1.5 points per drive and slightly over 40 yds per drive.
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59 minutes ago, Punch said:
To hone in on this point, I certainly do think message boards can be a waste of time, but perspective and moderation should be considered. For me, I'm a displaced Bills fan living 7 hours away. I've been a member of this board for nearly two decades and it's a way for me to experience community around our common bond. I don't think its much more complicated than that.
The reasons for your persistent agitating presence, however, are somewhat more elusive to say the least.
I’d say I’m pretty respectful. Even when I’m insulted by someone, I generally don’t respond with an insult.
Again, if it agitates you for someone to disagree with a very subjective and conspiratorial narrative, maybe I’m not the problem.
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36 minutes ago, Punch said:
We're not here to fête other teams, but I wouldn't call that bias. You're acknowledging you're here to glean some satisfaction from agitating other fanbases, which proves the assertion you're not posting in good faith.
No, I didn’t say that.
If it agitates you for someone to offer a factual counter argument to “NFL’s fixing every Chiefs game,” then maybe your KC hatred is reaching unhealthy levels.
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1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:
The game where he lined up in the backfield and false started every play and made the league look dumb for letting it all go? Why would they hold that against him? Blaming Collinsworth for pointing it out is like jailing the witness to a crime. Your argument isn't really getting extra traction here.
I’m explaining what happened. I don’t care what Collinsworth says.4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:You're not here to engage in good faith. Even the other Chiefs fans here at least make an attempt. You instead have made yourself the debate club president of the fanbase and not a single conversation on here has ever been enriched by you joining it. Homers of losing teams are endearing. Homers of dynasties are weird freaks. Don't be a weird freak.
I’m a weird freak for bringing some facts into the hate party. Lol. Okay. Hate on. -
20 minutes ago, Punch said:
If I were a Chiefs fan, the last thing I would ever think of doing is go to a rival team's fan message board to argue that they shouldn't criticize the Chiefs.
The fans of the other 31 teams all feel same way, even Troy Aikman was loudly grousing during yesterday's broadcast. Regardless of the validity of the claims, you're wasting your time.
You could argue that almost every minute spent on any message board is a waste of time. But if it’s interesting or entertaining to you, I’d argue it’s not a waste of time.I wouldn’t expect fans of 31 fanbases to change their minds. At least you admit that bias plays a huge part in the perception. That’s enough for me.
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15 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:
If he wasn't getting called for cheating on the snap in Jax and he is getting called (not enough) for cheating on the snap in KC, then Occam's Razor tells me that the Chiefs coach him to cheat. Does that make sense?
Well, considering the DB's, it might.
No, what makes sense is that there was a national uproar from fans/media after Collinsworth bitched about Taylor in game 1 last year. This led to the NFL relentlessly targeting him beginning in week 2.
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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
This is loser stuff. Your team has won three championships. Be a better fan than this.
But it’s not “loser stuff” to blame every single KC win on officiating? Lol. Wow. -
1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:
Nobody SAW Taylor's habit until he joined the Chiefs. "Targeted immediately" are you kidding? He might lead all tackles in penalties, but as a percentage called versus penalties actually committed I'd bet he's one of the lowest in the league, considering his daily double of illegal formation and false start on most passing downs.
Again, he’s been penalized MUCH more than in Jacksonville, and it started immediately after he joined the Chiefs. Somehow, in haters’ minds, an immediate dramatic increase in penalty rate indicates favoritism for KC. Please make it make sense.
Your own Dion Dawkins is known for the same kick step. Let me guess…he never gets away with a penalty? Or just 80% less than Taylor? And you know this because you study every snap of both payers.
If we’re being honest, we all know there are numerous penalties that go uncalled in every.single.game. Technically there’s holding on almost every snap. To expect imperfect/inconsistent refs to be perfect when officiating KC is ridiculous.
We also know that armchair refs aren’t as knowledgeable about rules as trained officials and rules experts. -
52 minutes ago, NewEra said:
“Here and there”- we certainly have different opinions of what that means.
Of course, and it’s not hard to fathom why. Difference is, I have facts to support my takes. The other side can only point to the occasional call or missed call, which can be done for any team. But the microscope isn’t pointed toward other teams, is it?
52 minutes ago, NewEra said:If you can’t see the difference- I can’t help ya. But I already knew that
Um…if one literally thought that NFL games were scripted and rigged, and it enraged them to the point of continual blowups…why would that person continue to religiously support and fork over money for a “fake” and illegitimate product? That’s no different than following WWE. Actually worse, because people only follow WWE for the entertainment value of goofy promotions and trash talk. -
4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
The reason it isn't normally a flag is because the refs warn the coach, warn the player and only then do they call a flag. Reid and Toney were both warned. It was a penalty. 100% correct flag.
No, they weren’t warned. Reid specifically mentioned that."Very disappointed that it ended the way it did," Reid said. "Normally I'll get -- I never use any of this as excuses, but normally I get a warning before something like that happens in a big game. (It's) a bit embarrassing in the National Football League for that to take place…
"I've been in the league a long time and I haven't had one like that. So, not where, at least in that kind of position there where it is not given a heads up to." -
16 minutes ago, NewEra said:
You’ve never seen anyone mention iffy calls from other teams? Only KC? 😂 put down the egocentric glasses and fire up your crack pipe.
yes- you’ve mentioned it all before. And then, like clockwork, the chiefs are beneficiaries of lame calls and everyone on earth agrees- except chiefs fans. Then we can watch you waste your minutes on earth telling everyone that KC gets crewed by the refs more than any other team. Again, like clockwork.
Who’s denying that KC benefits from questionable calls now and then? Definitely not me. But you realize that an iffy call here and there isn’t proof of a conspiracy, right?
16 minutes ago, NewEra said:millions of people watch. The WWE. There are more WWE fans on earth than chiefs fans
Yep. How many of them rage about it being scripted, but keep coming back? Lol.
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18 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:
So do you agree or disagree he lined up Offside? Should it be called more? That’s a different debate, but did he or did he not line up Offside?
So we’re only talking about alleged bad calls? Then why did people freak out in 22 after a late hit two yds out of bounds and a defensive hold in which the defender grabbed a handful of jersey? Which was defended by rules experts.
Aside from a few iffy personal fouls yesterday (which led to a grand total of three points), what are all the blatantly bad calls that have helped KC in big games?
18 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:Your argument in regards to Mahomes doesn’t hold any water. Are refs psychic when he throws a touchdown on plays that are flagged against his team? You can’t use the same logic for your argument and then also use it against your logic.
I’m not the one claiming conspiracy. I’m saying that plenty of impactful calls go against KC.
18 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:People did call out Jawan Taylor while he was in Jacksonville, but he played in Jacksonville so it didn’t get as much publicity. And again, Taylor starts early on many occasions every game, he should be called for those false starts! Honestly as far as Jones is concerned, I don’t pay enough attention to know what you’re saying is true. As a Bills fan though, we watched for years as Jerry Hughes would get held multiple times every game and not get the call, so even if it is true you’re not going g to get sympathy for that on a Bills discussion board.
I’m not looking for sympathy. But you’re kind of helping to prove my point. Every team can complain about calls/no-calls. Was there a conspiracy to help every team that held Jerry Hughes? No, just KC.
There are questionable or missed calls in every single NFL game, and everyone knows this. But if KC benefits from a call, there’s an undeniable conspiracy.
Come on, people.
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38 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:
if kc wins the sb, you can call it or see it anyway you want. I certainly don't compare it to the lowly WWE. the $ vegas and the nfl generate makes the WWE look like a flea circus for two bits a show.
I have been a fan far too long to not see what the hell is going on. just go out there and read it for yourself. look, like I said, call it what you want but if kc gets the 3 peat then yes, I damn sure believe it could be scripted. if whoever wins tonight's game, both with the ability to beat their ass in arrowhead, especially a healthy bills team, and lose because of poor officiating/bad calls like were called against the texans D yesterday. two personal foul calls for clearly non contact (as shown in replay) to the head and the 2nd one he was trying to elude and became a runner, you can't TACKLE him?
even old redeye aikman sounded off about the calls.
I believe, the texans, who gave the bills one of their 4 losses, had been healthy and had all their starters on offense it would of given them a better chance. stout enough defense but they were not to touch patty and penalized 30 yards doing so. hard to beat a good team as it is but when favored calls go their way as well. you usually lose. wait, usually. against the chiefs, you lose.
I get it, missed fg and xp at the end of the 3rd did not help their chances but they were able to keep it close until the 4th when the other personal foul against them as well as a missed Offside on the chiefs on the punt. which had that been called it would of given the texans a first down and another shot?
if kc doesn't make it or if somehow by the grace of the nfl refs they do make it and lose, I'll accept that I looked like a damn fool, no scripted 3 peat. if they go on to win it all, no one will convince me otherwise that it wasn't a scripted nfl fairytale with the frog, princess and prince all crowned as the nfl's only team to win 3 straight sb's.
The “record with such and such officials” stuff is silly. He has a great record with pretty much any ref.I think it’s ridiculous to claim that if a b2b champ and winners of 22 of the last 23 (not including the game in which starters sat) wins again, it’s proof of a fix. But people need a reason to justify their KC hate and they found one. Is what it is.
Of course, when questionable or game-changing calls go their team’s way, those calls were obvious and correct and “nothing to see here.”
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17 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
It’s really simple. People hate seeing KC win. It has gotten to the point that any calls they get, justified or not, would be viewed as some grand conspiracy.
Yep. And what really pisses people off about this is that they thought they were finally done with a team dominating the NFL (NE), then another team immediately replaced them.
I get it. But KC fans were very loyal and supportive through decades of heartbreak and frustration. To hear people talk incessantly about “Chiefs fatigue” after they finally broke through for a 5-6 year stretch is kinda annoying. Just like it would be to Bills fans if everybody were whining about Bills fatigue after they finally broke through and won a few SBs.
How to stop chiefs?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by SaulGoodman
Lol. They're showing that on ESPN now?
People are sure bent out of shape over a few calls that were defended by rules experts. I think they were soft calls too, but it's a soft league now and that first one's going to be called every time. Has been all year.
As for that graph, it looks bad on the surface, but a few things:
1) It's a blatant cherrypick. If they went back one more game, it would include the SB vs Tampa, which had a massive disparity in favor of the Bucs. During that full playoff run, KC's opponents were penalized 11 times to 21 for the Chiefs. Convenient of them to leave that out, among others. No one felt sorry for the Chiefs when they were hosed vs Brady twice in massive games. 11 penalties for 120 yds vs 4 for 39. One TD drive was basically all penalty yards. Where was the outrage? Now we're supposed to feel sorry for the Texans due to a couple supposedly bad calls that resulted in a total of 3 pts? They'd have lost anyway.
2) The average penalty disparity in that stretch is only a couple fouls, and the margin in most of those games is between 5-20 yds. In a few of them, the teams were either tied in total penalties or KC had more penalty yds. Without looking at each penalty individually, it really doesn't tell us much.
3) In Sharp's Twitter thread, he implied that KC got a lot of the "significant" calls in those games. He failed to mention that they were the only team to have a TD wiped off the board last postseason (and it happened twice). Or that there were two TDs negated the previous postseason, and also a negated INT. Opponents had zero of either. So, 0-5. Just a few off the top of my head from the last two years. There were plenty of other big calls against KC too, like the defensive hold on 3rd and 13 that gave SF a new set of downs in OT. I guess Sharp doesn't consider those significant?
Disingenuous nonsense pushed by people w/ agendas.