SaulGoodman
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Posts posted by SaulGoodman
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29 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
He needs it because Chiefs fans see with their own eyes that Allen is better. They’re insecure.It's not KC bias if every time you turn on the TV, a national analyst is calling Mahomes the most talented QB ever. Frankly, a lot of the media goes further in praising him than I do.
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2 hours ago, Success said:
So, Mahomes gets the kicker excuse for that game, but JA doesn't get it for the game this past January. Got it.
Why would I make excuses for a win? Just pointing out that he had plenty to overcome in that game and had to be practically flawless.
As for January, sure, that missed kick hurt their chances. Never said otherwise. Although a kick in the mid-40s for a weak kicker is different than one of the league’s best missing two chip shots.
2 hours ago, Success said:Most people thought Allen played better than Mahomes that game. It was close & they both played great - but there really isn't a case for Mahomes winning that game for the Bills if he had been their QB.
Most people think Mahomes is a better QB than Allen. You pick and choose when you want to listen to most people.
Why would there not be a case for Mahomes winning that game for Buffalo? He’d be facing a weaker defense that repeatedly blew coverage and left Diggs or Davis open by a mile. If you thought they picked on Klein, imagine what Mahomes and better receivers would have done to Sorenson, Niemann, and Hughes.
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3 hours ago, Success said:
That was one of the biggest "back into the playoffs" stories in NFL history.
You generally give no context to the counter-points you try to make.
How does Mahomes win the 13 seconds game?
Does he rush out to tell the ST unit to squib it at the end?
You seem to think there's nothing more that Allen could have done in that game, but Buffalo punted on about half their possessions (4 of 9). KC punted on 2 of 11. It's Mahomes that had to be nearly flawless, because his defense was blowing coverages constantly and leaving receivers open by a mile. Plus his kicker missed two easy kicks.
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40 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:
If Mahomes was saddled with McD, I don’t think he’d have a SB. He’s just too big of an obstacle.
And yet he reached the playoffs in his first season with a mediocre roster and Tyrod Taylor.
Why is he such a big obstacle in your mind?-
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My guess is Allen would have a couple SB appearances and maybe one ring.
Year by year…2017 - Allen sits behind Alex Smith
2018 - Still raw and developing, Allen is surrounded by a lot of offensive talent but arguably the worst defense in the league. Probably a pretty solid season but no ring.
2019 - Allen probably would’ve had a good shot at reaching the Super Bowl.2020 - Allen and the Chiefs host Mahomes and Buffalo in the AFCC. Allen probably wins, then loses to Tampa in the SB. Can’t overcome a third string OL and receivers that drop everything.
2021 - Mahomes wins the 13 seconds game.2022 - If Allen couldn’t score on the Bengals with Buffalo, he probably wouldn’t have had much luck with a high ankle sprain and a WR corps of MVS, Skyy Moore and Marcus Kemp.
2023 - Allen loses in divisional in Buffalo-
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11 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
SimmonsByard
Gilmore
Clowney
Shaq Barret
Danielle Hunter
Chris Jones
Christian Wilkins
DJ Reader
Leonard Williams
Derrick Henry
Jerrick McKinnon
Sutton
Jeudy
Mooney
Hollywood Brown
Curtis Samuel
Pick 2 of the above
Fill the rest of the roster with board members
this was MY IDEA. MINE!!!!!😂Seriously. Bidding War. Either way helps us
I keep seeing Chris Jones mentioned here. If KC, a team in a much better cap situation, can’t afford to keep him (despite clearly viewing it as a priority), how would the Bills be able to?
I think it’s a moot point though. Sounds like he’s very close to a deal.
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11 minutes ago, Doc said:
I love how they plan to be healthy in the playoffs...
Except for several starters being out this postseason, several injuries to key players last postseason, and their entire OL in 2020.
But there is some planning involved in avoiding a rash of injuries. There’s a reason that teams like the Titans and Ravens seem to always have numerous injuries and KC doesn’t.
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4 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:
The choir boys don't always win. In fact they usually don't.
Something tells me the Bills aren’t full of choir boys. And Hardman’s not a criminal.-
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1 hour ago, Success said:
I've provided facts all over this thread.
Every time I do, you move the goalposts. It's a repetitive pattern, and it has gotten boring for me.
I’ve been consistent. Far more so than those who hype the Bills rosters each year and then pull a 180 immediately after the season ends.-
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20 minutes ago, Success said:
But my opinion is BASED in facts. Who said they don't matter?
Saying that one opinion is irrefutable is saying exactly that. There are plenty of facts that support the other side. Where are all these facts you’ve provided anyway? -
4 minutes ago, Success said:
My conclusion in the last post I made is final, and irrefutable.
Everything else is just fluff.
Admitting that you’ve made up your mind and facts don’t matter?That’s no different than saying it’s irrefutable that Mahomes is a better QB than Allen.
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7 minutes ago, Success said:
Mahomes has had a much better situation, from the start.
It's cool, though. It doesn't mean Mahomes is a bad QB or anything.
Okay, let’s look at 2022. Allen had the #1 rated roster and Mahomes the #8. Mahomes had a high ankle sprain at the beginning of the first playoff game and played the AFC title game without several key players.
Was Mahomes’ situation far better in 2022?
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17 minutes ago, Success said:
The bolded seems to be the go-to as some sort of "proof."
But I don't think the bolded is accurate. I've heard plenty of analysts say that Allen has to carry his team more than any other top QB, and that Reid is one of the best coaches of all time. And analysts correctly hyped the Chiefs '23 defense, all through the season & playoffs.
Who was saying that this year?
As for Andy Reid, he’s one of the most successful coaches of all time. I’ve never said otherwise. I’ve just pointed out facts. Such as…the Andy Reid narrative was very different in 2018, when he had a losing record in the playoffs and was coming off a home loss to Marcus Mariota.
Obviously anyone is going to rate Reid higher than McDermott. And Kelce higher than Kincaid. But the main difference in both cases is longevity. McD’s first several years are pretty comparable to Reid’s first several. And is there really a huge difference between Kelce and Kincaid as of the Buffalo game? Kelce’s slowing down. I won’t be surprised at all if Kincaid has the better stats next season.
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23 minutes ago, SCBills said:
Spags has the KC Defense playing pretty well most playoffs.
and poor KC, Mahomes has a bad OL once and got wrecked because of it. Was blessed with Hill/Kelce and now… awww… all y’all get is an all-time TE and multiple high round picks at WR.
Last year top 2 OL.
This year Top tier Defense.
KC runs the league but Chiefs fans stay insecure the second anyone challenges the notion that Mahomes has been blessed beyond measure with the organization/teams around him.
Well, sure he’s had some talented players and solid coaches. So has Allen.
Mahomes’ defenses have been worse than Allen’s regular season or postseason by any measure until this year. The difference is that he never faces the Chiefs. Plus, it’s not like his defenses have shut down Buffalo. They just get a few stops.
Pretty much all my takes are echoed by most national analysts. They aren’t crazy, uncommon opinions.
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1 hour ago, Billl said:
They’re clearly excluding the Super Bowl, because that obviously makes sense.
Ah, right….who cares about how a defense performs in that game?Guess a guy’s not allowed to have a decent defense once in 6 years, even if his receivers and tackles suck?
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1 hour ago, SCBills said:
How did they get 13.7? -
4 hours ago, Success said:
This is like a cherrypicking festival.
Allen throws more picks than Mahomes, for sure. But he also had 44 TD's to Mahomes' 27 TD's this past year. That's more the kind of QB Allen is - he takes more risks, but makes more big plays. And how is his playoff ratio of TD's to INT's?
Mahomes had more big plays than any QB in the league in his first few seasons, and he takes plenty of risks. Of course, swapping Tyreek Hill for MVS, along with a dramatic shift in the way teams defend KC (and a big downgrade in tackle play) led him to take a different approach the last few years.
4 hours ago, Success said:And Allen was admittedly bad in last year's Cincy game. But why do you choose that game, but fail to mention Mahomes' meltdown in the 2nd half against Cincy in the game right after 13 seconds?
Because that's one bad half (consisting of like four possessions) out of 18 playoff games. And because the narrative is that it's always Allen's teammates/coaches that let him down.
4 hours ago, Success said:Beyond that, you keep bringing up how KC stole a SINGLE PLAY from the Bills. No one ever said the Bills staff has zero creativity. Singling out 1 play for any kind of coaching comparison is the height of cherrypicking, and completely unscientific.
Because that play continues to be singled out by fans as one of the best examples of Andy's allegedly incomparable genius, and because it's led to three TDs in SBs. Plus, I doubt it's the only creative play that Bills coaches have used. Do you really think that Reid is a savant who understands offensive concepts that no one else in the league can? And you know that he's been criticized greatly throughout his career for choking away playoff games (losing record before Mahomes) and bad decisions/poor clock management, right?
4 hours ago, Success said:My assertion is based on a much more broad overview of MANY stats and factors that make up a more true comparison between both QB's, both coaching staffs and both teams as a whole. It's a much more holistic view. Ergo, the facts actually DO support my assertion.
Like what?
Btw, going back to the supporting cast debate, here are the preseason PFF roster rankings for each team since each QB became a starter:
2018:
KC - 13
Bills - 16
2019:
KC - 7
Bills - 29
2020:
KC - 4
Bills - 7
2021:
KC - 2
Bills - 4
2022:
KC - 8
Bills - 1
2023:
KC - 4
Bills - 6
Notice that, despite the narrative that Mahomes walked into the greatest situation imaginable, his initial roster was ranked 13th. Only slightly above Buffalo's. It may have been better than 13, but obviously it wasn't considered an ultra-loaded roster. Even after Mahomes' MVP season in which his offense averaged 35 ppg, the ranking only rose to 7th the following season. Also, as beebe pointed out, Alex Smith had by far his best season statistically in 2017, and Mahomes doubled his TD total as a first-year starter the next year. With over 1000 more passing yds and nearly 10 more points per game (a few ppg away from a record). Meanwhile, Buffalo's roster ranking plummeted the year after Allen took over, and his rookie stats were weaker across the board than Tyrod Taylor's from the previous year.
Btw, here's what they had to say before the 2020 season: Biggest weakness: It's not a popular sentiment in the city of Buffalo, but this is a very good roster that probably will be limited by shaky quarterback play. Even if you want to discount the PFF grades or advanced accuracy metrics, Allen finished the 2019 season with a 58.8% completion percentage that was lower than each of the 32 quarterbacks with the most regular-season attempts. He had bottom-10 marks in yards per attempt and passer rating as well.
None of this supports the idea that there's been a massive gap in talent between these teams, especially in recent years. Or that Allen would have had insane levels of success in KC. I'm sure you'll attack PFF's credibility or something, but they study every play of every game and earn a lot of money doing what they do. No one's perfect, but they're definitely a better resource than the biased opinion of a fan.
The fact that Allen wasn't very sharp or accurate in his first two seasons doesn't help your case either. He wasn't likely to win big in those first two years, which would have left him only 4 seasons to surpass what Mahomes has done. So basically, he'd have needed to win the last four SBs.
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30 minutes ago, beebe said:
Spags has been getting credit for beating Brady twice in a Super Bowl for like a decade. It's one of the oddest things. If you do a Twitter search that includes the words "Spags," "Brady" and "twice," you'll see comments about it almost daily. In reality, he was putting the finishing touches on a 10-38 record with the Rams before getting fired (his defenses were mostly terrible.)
He caught on with the Saints a year later as their DC where he oversaw arguably the worst defense in NFL history. He was fired after one season.
The New Orleans Saints have fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after one season -- a record-setting year in the wrong way.
New Orleans ranked last in the NFL in total defense and run defense, yielding the most yards (7,042) ever in a single season.
After a few years as an assistant and position coach with the Ravens, Spags returned to the Giants in 2015. Two of his three defenses, including the one that led to his departure for a second time, were terrible, finishing close to dead last in both yards and points allowed.
In KC, his defenses haven't been particularly good in regular seasons up until this year. He's been 15th, 16th, 22nd, 14th and 7th in DVOA. We have seen an uptick in KC's defensive performance most years in the playoffs, but certainly not always. This year was the clear exception (KC's defense was great.)
But from 2019-2022, Spags' defenses allowed: 31, 24, 20, 17, 24, 31, 27, 36, 21, 20, 20, 35 pts in 12 playoff games. That's an average of 25.5 points per game allowed in the playoffs. If KC's offense had performed less-than-amazing, or had the Chiefs lost playoff games where the offense scored 30-plus—ie the 13 seconds game, or the Eagles Super Bowl—the narrative surrounding Spags would be much different.
McDermott's defenses have given up 23.4 points per playoff game in his tenure by comparison (less than 20 pts vs non Chiefs opponents.)
McDermott's defenses on the whole have far outperformed Spags' defenses in the regular season, and they've been very close during the playoffs (edge would go to McDermott statistically.)
Easy now....you're dropping too many facts.
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On 2/22/2024 at 12:09 AM, LABILLBACKER said:
The difference between Patrick and Josh is very small. Give Josh coaches like Andy & Spags along with Travis & Tyreek and he's got 2 rings. Both qbs are dead even in athleticism yet Mahomes processes plays faster. Give Patrick McDermott and Dorsey and he's hating life. Mahomes infrastructure is worlds better in KC.
In college, Mahomes killed it in spite of poor coaching and skill players that no one's heard of since.
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3 hours ago, Success said:
Mirrored by every analyst & pundit? In the age of hot-take sports media? The fun thing on that is, we can all experience the joy of watching those narratives turn on a dime over the next decade+.
I'm not sure if Allen would have gotten 6 for the Pats, but who knows. He might have gotten 7 or 8.
And thank you, btw. It's awesome that I can have my own opinion about Josh Allen & the Bills - on a Bills board.
So….the player who’s been much more mistake-prone (137 INTs/fumbles vs 99 in fewer games) with a defense that has provided far more takeaways (163 to 138) would have accomplished more than Mahomes in KC? By upgrading his offensive talent for a few seasons while downgrading defensively every year but one?Seems doubtful. Especially considering Allen was very inaccurate his first two years (at that point Mahomes had already notched a historic MVP season and a SB victory).
KC had better offensive skill players during Mahomes’ first few years but hasn’t the last few. They’ve also had a weak running game most years, weak tackle play in half of Mahomes’ seasons, receivers that led the league in drops by a mile this year, the worst run blocking in the league for a few years, and weak defense every year but one. They’ve also been among the most penalized teams annually while their opponents are among the least.
Somehow this adds up to a situation so much better than Allen’s that he’d have 6x as many AFC title game appearances as he has now, 3 or more SB rings and at least two MVPs?
Also, is the difference in coaching as drastic as you make it out to be if one of Reid’s most lauded plays was stolen from the “uncreative” Bills?
And was it the defense’s fault that Allen led his offense to 10 points vs Cincinnati last year? A hobbled Mahomes scored more than twice as many points vs the same team the next week, while throwing to a depleted WR corps consisting of MVS, Skyy Moore and Marcus Kemp from the practice squad.
I don’t think the facts support your assertion.
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1 hour ago, Success said:
I 100% believe Allen would be as successful as Mahomes if he was playing for KC. If not more..
What now?
You can claim whatever you want to believe. That’s the beauty of what if scenarios. The difference is, my opinions on Mahomes are mirrored by practically every analyst and pundit.
You probably also believe that Allen would have more SBs than Brady if he had played in NE, since he has the bigger arm and all.
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1 minute ago, Success said:
Who does that?
You're on a board of fans that have had a chance to watch everything McDermott has done.
To make a blanket conclusion about him because he backed into the playoffs one year w/ Tyrod Taylor? Not very scientific. I mean, what's your premise? Allen & Mahomes have had equal circumstances every step of the way, so obviously Mahomes is way better based on results?
Are you saying that the narrative about McDermott wouldn't be vastly different if a couple plays/decisions were reversed?
And no, I don't think Allen walked into the perfect circumstances. But that doesn't mean he'd have won as much or more as Mahomes if the roles were reversed, as many claim.
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2 minutes ago, Success said:
That's your sample size?
We needed a miracle play by Andy Dalton & Tyler Boyd to even have a chance that year.
As opposed to the people who judge him based on one or two decisions from a few games?
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17 minutes ago, LEBills said:
The Chiefs won 53 games in the 5 seasons prior to Mahomes starting (the early Andy Reid Era). Mahomes was throwing to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in 2018The Bills did make the playoffs in 2017 with a -56 point differential (good for 22nd out of 32 teams). Josh was throwing to Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Robert Foster.
If a talent-depleted team led by Tyrod Taylor reached the playoffs, McD must be better than many think.
What if Allen and Mahomes swapped exact situations?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by SaulGoodman
Not to take away from the game he had, but again, they punted on almost half their possessions. The scoring flurry didn't happen until very late in the game. So obviously the offense and Allen could have done more. It's not like they were facing an elite defense. They were facing a defense with as many or more holes as the one KC faced in January. Sorenson, Niemann, Hitchens and Hughes were massive liabilities and easy for a quality QB to exploit. They didn't "lie down," but they might as well have. Numerous blown coverages, WRs running wide open, and a DB falling down on 4th and 15, leaving Davis high school open for the go-ahead score.
Never expected you to say otherwise. You quoted me and I responded.