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As of now, it appears that the Bills have cut five fomer draft choices, all mid or late picks: Sullivan, Sobieski, Sape, Stevenson and Smith. I was suprised about Stevenson; I thought he played well on special teams. I think these cuts are good evidence that we are failing to find diamonds in the rough in the later rounds. How many late round picks from the TD era are starting for the Bills? How many are quality back-ups?

I think we need more production from our drafts in 2002 and 2003. It is unreasonable to expect draft picks from 2004 to be ready for the pro bowl, but looking at our picks in 2002 and 2003, I don't see players that are ready to be quality starters. In fact, many teams start their draft picks in the first year; it is becoming a necessity that players contribute quickly with the salary cap and relatively short contract lengths. Of course we need to give the players time to develop, but I don't see many stars coming out of Williams, J. Reed, R. Denney, C. Wire, J. Bannan, L. Sape, C. Kelsay, Crowell and Pucillo. Other teams did get quality players from these drafts. If we have another poor season, it will be mostly about a failure in talent from recent drafts since our free agent signings have been comparatively better.

I don't think E. James is the same player that he was before the injury and I believe his knee injury was not nearly as severe as McGahee's. I agree that we have to give McGahee more time, and frankly, we don't have a choice. If he is really lacking speed now, will another six months make a significant difference?

At DT, how many will we keep? Four or five? Even at five, Bannan or Sape will be gone (Williams, Adams, Edwards and Anderson). At DE, I assume either Gildon or McKenzie will be cut (unless Gildon fills a LB spot, then it would be Stevenson or Crowell). On the o-line, Tucker, Pucillo and Sobieski all play guard and center, who will get cut? At safety, I assume if Baker makes the roster then Prioleau gets cut. At wr, how can Smith make the team with Moulds, Evans, Reed, Shaw and Aiken? Should be interesting.

We needed a lot of help last year, not just on the defensive line. The only way that drafting McGahee makes sense is if he ends up being a better back than Henry. Only time will tell.

I would have taken any of the players on my earlier list over McGahee. At best, McGahee will be a part time player this year. The other guys could have been productive starters for the first two years. With no way to know how well McGahee will recover and play, and considering he did not play last year, give me the guy who would have contributed immediately.

I think it is a little early to talk about pro-bowl caliber players from the 2003 draft. I also think, to be fair, you also need to consider second round picks. From the selections in the first and second rounds that came after McGahee, I would have loved for the Bills to have selected D. Clark (TE-Indy), E. Steinbach (G-Cinci), E. Wilson (CB-NE) or A. Boldin (WR-Arizona).

I have come up with three possible scenarios for 2005. I am assuming that (i) both players will play in 2004, (ii) neither player suffers a significant injury during the season and (iii) there is no trade in 2004. The percentages below are pure guesses. Scenario #1. Both players on roster for 2005 season. Possible since both are under contract for that season. But I can't see this happening because neither player would be happy for a second year of this and I would anticipate that one would hold out (probably Henry since his contract will be up at the end of the season) to force a trade. Probability: 35% Scenario #2. McGahee traded before 2005 season. Unlikely. He would need to play a significant amount this year and show that he will be a great player. If he plays part time, would a team give up a number one pick for him? Would TD trade him for less? No. Even if we got a number one pick it would make no sense to draft a guy number one, get one season of play (probably on, at best, a shared basis) and then trade him. Probability 20% Scenario #3. Henry traded before 2005 season. Most likely. Unlike McGahee, if he stays healthy, Henry will have trade value. His contract is up in 2005 and if the Bills are not interested in a long-term deal, will probably want to move on. Probability 65% Conclusion: None of this really makes any sense unless McGahee recovers to the point where he is at least as good as Henry. Why would you trade Henry in 2005 if you are unsure about McGahee's future as a top back? TD really needs McGahee to show this season that he can be a top back, otherwise using a number one pick on McGahee was a big mistake. I am not sure that McGahee will be in top form this season (or ever), so it will be interesting to see how this plays out for 2005.

I don't think Sullivan can play guard or tackle. When he started a couple of years ago, I remember that Paul Zimmerman of SI reviewed our line play and made some really negative comments about Sullivan. I know many don't seem to respect Dr. Z, but he seems spot on about this. How can people say they are excited or even comfortable with Smith starting at LG? Okay, maybe he is better than what we have (i.e., Pucillo, Tucker and Sullivan), but that doesn't mean he will be a quality starter. I am kind of shocked that TD let it come to this, particlarly after the poor play of the o-line last year.

I understand that this season will be the real test, but I think the biggest problem the Bill have now is that recent draft picks have failed to develop. Many seem to tout that so many of our draft picks are still on our roster. I would argue that since our roster was completely purged when Donahoe took over, it was inevitable that many of the picks listed below would make the roster, regardless of talent. 1. Possible quality starters. I believe that M. Williams, J. Reed, C. Wire, W. McGahee, McGee, Anderson, Denney and Kelsay have to step-up and show that they can be quality starters. I have serious doubts about Wire, Reed, Denney, Kelsay and Williams. 2. Possible quality back-ups. I have no confidence that any of the following will even become quality back-ups: R. Edwards, J. Bannan, L. Sape, Crowell, Stevenson, Thomas, Sobieski, McFarland, Pucillo and Aiken. I believe that TD's first draft was very strong. Clements, Schobel, Henry and Jennings are, at a minimum, quality starters. It seems like we have had problems finding quality players in the draft since.

I am not sure it is TD's ego involved here, but it is clear that it is not coaching. Now that we are on our third o-line coach in three years it seems to me it is about talent and the lack of development thereof. If you can criticize TD regarding the o-line it would be for overestimating the talent of his draft picks. I am not sure if that is ego or an example of poor talent evaluation.

I agree with you. It is very interesting that Donahoe has missed so badly with his o-line picks. Jennings has been solid, but Williams and Sullivan have been disappointments and Sobieski and Pucillo haven't done much. That is one for five. Maybe we should have used higher picks on some o-linemen over the last four drafts (I think Sobieski and Pucillo were 7th rounders). Donahoe needed Mike Williams to be at a minimum very solid and he hasn't been. I would have drafted a guard in the first or second round this year. The Bills will be lucky if Smith can play decently. I remember Wilson and Donahoe saying last season that there would be significant changes to the o-line. I hope starting Smith at LG wasn't what they were talking about.

I agree with many of the posts, but I think his drafts deserve an overall grade of C. The first, in 2001, was strong. But 2002 and 2003 have, so far, been disappointing. I realize it takes a number of years before one can accurately judge a draft, but I see a lot of disappointments in M. Williams, Reed, Sullivan Wire and Denney. I aslo wonder about Kelsay, Sobieski, Pucillo, Aiken and Crowell. Some of these guys need to step-up befoer we can say that Donahoe deserves a higher grade. Time will tell, but drafting guys that are back-up types or marginal starters won't get us to the Superbowl.