Beck Water

Poyer was a 7th round draft pick and Hyde was a 5th round draft pick, and both have done very well for us. On the other hand the Bengals have 2 2nd-round picks as their safeties KC has a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick On the third hand, the SF49ers have an UDFA and a 5th round player as their safeties The Eagles have a 6th round pick and a 4th round player It's probably true overall that not many 6th round draftees wind up starting anywhere on a football team It seems like a "lock" that one of the two teams playing in the Superbowl is gonna be starting late round safeties It seems to be a general consensus that the Bills DL (maybe any DL) critically depends upon being gap sound AND getting pressure up the middle. That wasn't happening last Sunday for the Bills, due to the injuries the post you responded to pointed out. I personally think that the 1TDT is of especial importance to McDermott, but I've been told I'm incorrect there by someone who ought to know more than I so 🤷‍♂️. All I know is that Edmunds and Milano looked hella better this season with the DL keeping them clean, and Oliver was here last year but DaQuan Jones wasn't.

Certainly, I just think he has a preference to give a guy a hot minute to call around and line something up and then "leave to pursue other opportunities" because that's how it was handled when Andy Reid fired McDermott as DC - it was painted in the media as a decision to pursue another opportunity with the Panthers as their DC, even though it was rumored to be a firing (and actually was). I agree that if he needs to fire someone, he will.

I was disappointed in our OL, that's for sure.

A lot of players have said they were not "themselves" the first year back from an ACL.

McDermott *did* fire Rico Dennison and the following year Juan Castillo. But I think the list of coaching assistants who have "pursued other opportunities" is longer.

I think Joe Marino is usually reliable? Anyway Thanks for the source.

Where? It's actually not the McDermott way to fire people. He prefers to allow coaches to "pursue other opportunities", like McDermott did when Andy Reid fired him. Heath Farwell, the DL coach a couple years back, etc. I do believe that it's time for Leslie Frazier and Sean McDermott to get a divorce, though. If Frazier wants to continue to coach and be considered for HC positions, he needs to go somewhere else and install a top defense there, out of McDermott's shadow where it's ambiguous who is really responsible for various decisions.

*blink* Did NOT see that coming. People have said this, but I can not find anywhere: where is the info on Frazier's contract or the lack thereoff?

Oh, Dear.

Sweeney is a FA, and I don't see us re-signing him I would like to see more of Morris. He showed good route running abilities and good hands in the targets he got. And, a good number of the yards he got were after the catch. What I don't know, is how is his blocking coming along. Better than Sweeney overall I guess, since Morris bumped him on the depth chart and overall took 30% of the snaps! but that might be too low of a bar. I agree with you that we didn't get as much offensive contribution out of the TE position as we could have.

Ty Dunne has a valid point there Also, my perennial plaint Boogie Basham over Creed Humphrey in 2021

When has Mel Kiper ever been correct about who the Bills draft?

Yeah, we had a mass influx of people here from the BBMB when it shut down.

This. Just look at the interview requests Lou Anarumo has gotten: 🦗 The current hiring trend is to hire inexperienced hot-shot offensive minds, either from the college ranks or from the staff of hot offensive teams. I think last year, Matt Eberflaus was the only hire from the D side, and he was over-due and had been overlooked for interviews in previous years. (OK, Lovie Smith with the Texans, but I think they're in their own world) Nathaniel Hackett, Mike McDaniel, Kevin O'Connell, Brian Daboll. Who requested to interview Ryans that he turned down? Oh, OK - turned down interviews with Colts and Arizona, accepted interviews with Broncos and Texans. So he has interviewed. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/22/demeco-ryans-had-four-interviews-scheduled-but-he-canceled-two-of-them/

The problem with going for raw, underdeveloped athletic freaks with high draft picks is, unless a team can really develop them quickly, they wind up starting to contribute just before they want to get paid.

You make some interesting points. My initial impression was that what the Bengals did was similar to what the Bills did in 2019 when they signed Morse, Feliciano, Spain, Long and Waddle as well as drafting Cody Ford, except of course that Ford and Waddle didn't work out, then once Spain got paid he got too "cool for school" from the coach and once Feliciano got paid he decided to get skinny. But looking at Overthecap and such, I think overall Karras Collins and Kappa are a higher tier of FA. Certainly the Bills have invested more than a 4th round pick in OL. Cody Ford in the 2nd; Spencer Brown in the 3rd. The problem is one can't play and the other isn't looking good. I think the real problem for the Bills might be talent evaluation on OL and/or scheme and coaching. I know with NE, "Coach Scar" seemed able to turn a group of relative nobodies into a solid OL. Of course, part of that was Brady's ability to read the defense and to get the ball out quickly in rhythm to the correct guy, often 4-5 yd passes that turned into 10. Kind of like....Burrows 🤐 There's a lot more to being a good GM than being a good evaluator of NFL talent. That's why there's a whole staff. It's possible that losing a couple of the FO guys we lost was big for us. It does seem as though there are a couple of position groups (OL, RB) where we are just having trouble.

Bengals changed their OL, but especially early in the season, it wasn't so clear that they fixed it. 1st 4 games of the season, Mixon was getting less than 3 ypc (2 and 2.5 in a couple of those games). And Burrow was getting pressured and sacked - 7x game one, 6x game 2. The thing is, they evolved their offense pretty promptly to work better with the line they had - different run plays, getting the ball out faster. Burrows rocks 10.2 Y/Completion. That's 5.6 air yards per completion, and 5.2 YAC per completion. I'm right with you that I want Beane to make substantial investment in offensive line and in WR this off-season, but IMHO we have to fundamentally change either our offensive philosophy, or our offensive execution, or both, to take best advantage.

Beane most definitely botched letting Crowder break his leg and go on season-long IR, then waiving Hodgins due to a roster "squeeze play" caused Tre White not being ready to play when added/injuries - only to see Kumerow go on IR a week or 2 later. How could he ***** up by not predicting all that? Seriously, there were a number of folks (myself included) who thought Beane had NOT done enough to address talent at WR this off-season and we were going into the season pretty thin. We were depending upon 3 out of 4 starters to step in and step up (Davis, McKenzie, 5th round Shakir) and that seems improbable, but then of course 2 of the 3 had had fantastic games towards the end of the 2021 season, so it's not like they'd never shown they could play. And you may be right that Allen asked for more help but it was also reported that actually Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie went to Beane and asked him to sign Beasley.

So it's kind of interesting, I read an article on Beane. Basically as a young multi-sport athlete, he was always under-sized and epitomized the "it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog" mantra. McDermott was cast in the same mold (albeit, with a more restrained temper) as a DB. I wish I could find the link, IMHO it sort of shed some light on why Beane and McDermott may over-value under-sized players with "good work ethic" "good background" etc.

It's a point, although if he's a "cap casualty" in Tampa, I don't know how we afford him here.

It means Tasker and Brown provide the "Party Line" talking points provided to the team.

No argument on that Miami and Cinci got push up front. On the other hand, Jones DNP vs. Cinci and no word on when during Mia he got injured. Phillips of course was playing with a torn rotator cuff, DNP vs Miami. I will say that the resources expended on the 1TDT kind of argue that McDermott, Frazier, and Beane don't agree with you. Those resources may not always have been well-spent, or on the right guy, but they do keep spending them. Jones and Settle account for 6% of the Bills cap this season. So would you argue that having Jones out and Phillips, possibly Oliver playing hurt made no difference? We would still get "out physicalled" because we don't have "dudes"? I have to say, if allocating $55M (24%) of the estimated cap for 2023 (excluding Phillips) plus investing 2- 1st round (one #6), 2- second round, 1 third round, and our biggest FA signing is not sufficient to give us whatever we need on the DL, that seems to be a huge talent evaluation issue.

I'm a little confused as to what your intended meaning is. Are you saying the 1TDT position (DaQuan/Settle) isn't a big cog in what makes the thing go? Or that Jordan Phillips (3TDT usually) isn't? If it's nothing we haven't seen all season, how did Miami and how did the Bengals appear more able to exploit more motion in the run game? Was it just because we weren't keeping the backers clean?

Fair. I've said before and I'll freely acknowledge, I struggle to see what's really happening on the field as far as coverage from the TV broadcast. I can see things, but I need all-22 and sometimes several watches. One thing I think I saw repeatedly throughout the game, though, was the Bengals using motion to pull the D out of position and then running into the gap their motion helped to create. Now, it may be that if the front were solid, that wouldn't have mattered, I don't know. And it could be more a function of who we had in the backfield, not being able to play as a unit and adjust correctly when one defender moved. But I saw the Dolphins do this, and I saw the Bengals do this, and we didn't seem to have an effective answer. Maybe there wasn't an effective answer available with the personnel we had on the field. You kind of hint at agreement with that when you mention the limitations the D faced by losing Hyde, then Hamlin. Marlowe didn't cut it, and when Jaquan Johnson came in (roughly half the game) then Poyer went out, it was defensively over. Do you disagree with this? "One perception (or misperception) that I have, is that McDermott/Frazier's scheme depends upon having a couple of key pieces. One is the piece Star Lotulelei was supposed to be but wasn't, but DaQuan Jones was, this season: the huge man who can hold the point of attack and move it back to anchor. Those guys seem hard to find, and hard to have capable backups for. Tim Settle was not that guy." I would like to know this also, as I have searched and can not find information to this point.

Do you think so? McDermott said it was his best year, and he's the sort of player who will continue to work on getting better. Beane said their mantra has been 'draft, develop, re-sign'. I think we make every effort to keep him. Poyer, was injured a TON which happens as players get older, I think he's gonna be a casualty. Oliver is a good question. In theory, we could help ourselves a lot by signing him to a contract and taking a lot of his guaranteed $11M off the books, but I'm not sure we're sold yet. McDermott commented that the DL play was "inconsistent".