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Beck Water

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    Why the Bills don't "need" a traditional X receiver

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

    Nobody is arguing the Bills don't need guys that can separate and generate YAC...it was a huge problem last season.

     

    The point is, there are lots of guys in the draft this year that excel at that, so we should be excited. But instead, lots of posters want to trade our whole draft for a big-bodied traditional X. We don't need that to accomplish the goal, especially if we plan on running 12 personnel at any kind of decent clip.

     

    If your point is that the Bills should be very very very sure and then be even more sure before trading, not the entire draft, but maybe top picks from this year AND next...I agree with you

     

    If your point is the Bills don't need a guy who can play X or boundary receiver because we can put 2 TE on the line and play our receivers off ball - I disagree

     

    My caveat being that I think what you need there is a guy who is "sturdy enough" and "big enough" and "fast enough" combined with being a human who is "very good at football" as Dawkins once said of Diggs....sure other things being equal as @Buffalo716 take the guy who is bigger and faster....but chasing size and speed in receivers sometimes mean you wind up with a guy who is not as good at playing football as a guy with OK size but great moves and hands....mensa conclusion I know

    37 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

    Right but if you can't beat man, you can't beat the Chiefs. 


    The Bills play 98% zone (just ball parking because it's a lot) and we can't beat a starting QB in the playoffs. We have not beaten a team above the 5 seed. You need to effectively play man in some capacity to win. 

     

    I think this ball-parking is incorrect.....the Bills play a lot more man than you think.  The reason they wanted Elam, of course, is that Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson were Burnt Toast playing man, that's one of the things we lost when Tre White was injured.  But with Benford and Douglas I think they played man last year more than you'd think.

    Why the Bills don't "need" a traditional X receiver

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Beck Water

    8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

    I would love to see that data. 

     

    I would love to find the source, too, I have a pretty decent memory so I believe I read it - actually it may have been in a Cover1 video - but I've been rummaging around and no can find.  Lots of stuff on which Ds play the most man by down and etc.

    I don't subscribe to any of the stat services though, so maybe someone here who does could find it.
     

    5 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

    Unfortunately for the Bills, Snead plays for KC or we'd have 1 or 2 championships. Snead just abuuuuused Diggs man. It was very hard to watch. 

     

    Well, he's on to the Titans now.

    Why the Bills don't "need" a traditional X receiver

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

    Don't get me wrong I agree 

     

    I want a big physical guy... Who has the skill set to dominate press man

     

    If you give me two equal football players.. 100% the same skill set... And one is 5'11 195

     

    And one is 6'3 223 ... Give me the big dude all day everyday and twice in Sundays 

     

    I want a guy who will come down with a tough catch

    That one was but for some reason it was marked 2023 season but it was from the 2022 season 

     

    So the numbers I used were from two seasons ago 

     

    I cannot find 2023 numbers... And unless I watch every snap to see how many times he was pressed and how he beat it... I can't give a real assessment other than he's always been good at beating press 

     

    So I doubt he just became horrible even if he regressed

     

    Well, we've talked before, you know I acknowledge that when it comes to watching broadcast film I have "slow eyes" and need all-22 and a couple watchings to know what I'm seeing....but to my eyes, we had real problems beating man coverage last season and that includes Diggs, at least in the 2nd half of the season.

     

    It wasn't always press, in that JT O'Sullivan QB School youtube vid on the division game vs KC you can see routes where Snead just sat back and waited for Diggs route to bring him to him, basically - he must have felt pretty confident he understood what route concepts were going to be run from different sets and cues.

    Why the Bills don't "need" a traditional X receiver

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

    Italicized: I am not disputing that. He was great. Until he played the Chiefs, Sneed just OWNED him man... unfortunately. 

     

    And I agree. However, we need a bigger body IMO (which is why im SO against Worthy for this team..i don't dislike worthy, i dislike him for this team in it's current state) to win off the line and make contested catches. It's been a lot time since we've had a WR make contested catches regularly (outside of Diggs 2 years ago). 

     

    Actually.....I read somewhere (and if you ask me for a link, answer is "I don't got it") the Bills faced one of the highest % of man coverage last season because Diggs for whatever reason was having uncharacteristic problems getting a clean release off press man and beating physical man coverage downfield, as he did in previous years, and that link you shared from PFF illustrates why....absolutely no one else on the team was beating it - not Harty, not Shakir, not Sherfield, not Davis

     

    vs 2020 and 2021 where IIRC we had one of the lowest rates of man coverage because our receivers would kill it and Josh would carve it up.

    • Agree 1

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

    I think Beane remembers what it was like to only have Cole Beasley and John Brown and knows you need a stud out there to just be a difference maker..  Diggs while great in the regular season, did not perform when it mattered in the playoffs.

     

    I think BTJ would fit in perfectly with this team and play to Josh's strengths..    

     

    I hope Beane remembers that.

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Monty98 said:

    Who did we draft in 2015...I wish I knew we could trade previous bad picks away! Damnnn aha.

     

    No 1st round (traded for Sammy Watkins prior year) - can we get that one back?

    2nd round Ronald Darby - Beane and McDermott traded him away for Jordan Matthews and a 2018 3rd rounder - he is actually a pretty decent player, has struggled with injuries (2 ACLs and a hip) but played for the Ravens last season and just signed a 2-year with Jax, still in the league

    3rd round John Miller - we moved on from him after 2018, but I lean towards Juan Castillo was more the problem - he went on to start for the Bengals and Panthers before hanging up his cleats in 2022, which is OK mileage for a 3rd rounder

    The rest of that draft - Yikes! and Yowza, yeah, if we could trade them away that's be good.

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

    There is NO player other than a QB that I would trade all those picks for.  None.  The 28th, 60th and 2025 1st should be three starters, and 128-160-163 collectively have a good chance of being a fourth starter.   There is practically no way that the guy you get at 9 could be more valuable than the combined value of four starters.  

     

    @Shaw66 you and I pretty much disagree entirely about the value of a "#1" or "X" or "boundary" receiver [in the sense of a guy who is "that good at football" and can get open on his own with some combination of moves, speed, strength and or size], with you saying there isn't a need, WR are a dime a dozen now a days, and teams don't value them because modern offenses just scheme guys open, and me offering various counter-points and data.

     

    But we agree completely on this.  

     

    Sell the farm to move up for a guy you think can be the QB for the next 10-14 yrs

     

    But WR?  No, the opportunity cost of losing 3 cost-controlled good players, too high.

    • Like (+1) 1

    TSW Mock Draft 3.0 - Completed!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 4/22/2024 at 9:37 AM, Virgil said:

     

    19-   LA Rams (875) - MrEpsYtown *Traded* Bills - TSW Poll - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU

    20-   Pittsburgh (850) - Big Blitz *Traded* Cardinals - GunnerBill - Quinyon Mitchell, DB, Toledo

    21-   Miami (800) - Alphadawg7 -  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

    22-   Philadelphia (780) - stinky finger - Terrion Arnold, DB, Alabama

    23-    Minnesota (760) - H2o - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

    24-   Dallas (740) - Might Rather - Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

    25-   Green Bay (720) - Virgil - Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa

    26-   Tampa Bay (700) - RyanC883 *Traded* Washington - mrags - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

    27-   Arizona (680) - GunnerBill *Traded* Pittsburgh - Big Blitz *Traded* Washington - mrags - Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

    28-   Buffalo (660) - TSW Poll *Traded* Rams - MrEpsYtown - Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn St

    29-   Detroit (640) - frostbitmic - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

    30-   Baltimore (620) - Allen2Moulds - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

    31-   San Francisco (600) - QLBillsFan - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke

    32-   Kansas City (590) - section122 - Nate Wiggins, DB, Clemson

     

    Trades:

    The Broncos are trading 2024 #12, #76, #121, #136, #147, 2025 #1, 2025 #2 to the Commanders for 2024 #2

    The Commanders are trading #12, #100, and #121 to the Bears for #9

    The Bills are trading #28, #163, and 2025 2nd Rounder (From Vikings) to the Rams for #19

     

    I just wanna say I really like this trade for the Bills.  I think it's fair value for both parties

    If we're going to trade up, this is the sort of trade up I'd like to see.

     

    And I don't know much about Brian Thomas Jr but I like his draft profile.

     

    Virgil, once again, a big salute for all the work you put in year after year to do these. 

    SALute!

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    Draft Day Coverage?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

    ESPN, NFLN, ABC, or something else?

     

    I loved Berman & Kiper for so many years. Therefore, my preference would be watching Mel, but Greenberg, Riddick and Booger…🤮.

     

    Not a big fan of Eisen, but I am going to switch to NFLN this year. 
     

    Sorry Mel. 😞

     

    Well, I don't have cable so it's either ABC or bananagrams.  I'm kind of leaning towards bananagrams.

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    Things aren't going well in Cincinnati

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    4 hours ago, H2o said:

    They can not show up to anything and hold out for an extended period. Higgins can sit out until week 11 (I believe) and still get his year accrued towards FA. Hendrickson can sit out all of TC. If they fine him for, it will only tick him off more. Then you have Chase coming up on his contract as well. Great times at WKRP 

     

    I would say that the latter is the cause of the former - the Bengals probably want to negotiate with Chase and then work out other contracts.

    JMO.
     

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Beck Water

    15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

    You missed the point.   It's not that some guys aren't valuable.  Those guys you name are extraordinarily valuable.   And they put up nice stats.  They just don't fit the stud receiver mold.   They aren't tall, they aren't big, and they aren't fast.   They have other skills that make that, combined with decent size and speed, makes them valuable.  

     

    I've been talking to people here about the fact that the typical stud receiver - the big, tall, fast guys - aren't the kind of guys that teams are looking for now.  Blazing speed is nice, but not necessary.   Size is nice, but not necessary.   There are a lot of guys with measurables like Samuel and St. Brown and Kupp, they're all over the place.  What teams are looking for is guys with with decent size and speed and who are good scheme fits. 

     

    Now this is interesting.  We've been talking about #1 receivers.  

     

    I just went back and looked at what you wrote in your post to which I replied.  You did not use the phrase "typical stud receiver" or "big tall fast guys".  This is what you said:

     

    "I think, in fact, that receivers are becoming a dime a dozen, just like running backs.   Successful teams don't need a top-five running back, and I think the passing game already has evolved to the point that they don't need a top-five receiver.  I mean, they'll have a guy who is top-five in the stats, but he'll get there by being a scheme fit rather than being a great receiver.   I think that's exactly what we've seen in Kansas City.  And it's what we've seen in LA and Detroit and SF. "

     

    I'm speaking to the point that guys like Kupp, Samuel, and St Brown are special players, and their teams regard them as special players.  They are getting paid like special players.   To use Emmanual Acho's term, they are "Freakazoids".

     

    I searched your content for stuff about #1 receivers, stud receivers, and big tall fast guys.  Bearing in mind the search engine here has its flaws, I don't find a lot of stuff where you specify that to you, #1 receiver or stud receiver means "tall big fast" to you.  In fact, to the contrary.  So if that's now what #1 receiver or stud receiver means to you, I'll agree that teams have value for WR who don't fit that mold now a days.  But I don't think that's because receivers are a dime a dozen or because they are 'scheme fits', as you said in the post I responded to above.

     

    From your post linked above, you said "A typical #2 is not good to great at getting separation and is not good to great at making contested catches.   A guy who is good to great at one or both of those skills is a #1 receiver.   People are naming players like Hill and Waddle and Cinci's wideouts.   Someone mentioned Gronk and Edelman.   They're all #1 receivers.  Why?  Because they're all good to great at getting open using their own skills, or in Gronk's case they're open when they're covered, so they don't need to separate."

     

    I agree completely with your description of a #1 receiver quoted above, from August of 2023 to be fair.  There's nothing in there about "big tall fast guys", and I think that's appropriate.  I call to mind something Dawkins said about watching Diggs during an off season throwing session right after Diggs was traded to the Bills.  It was something to the effect of "until then, I didn't realize a human could be that good at football". 

     

    That's a #1 WR to me: not a "big tall fast" guy, but a human who is "that good at football", who can separate, who can make contested catches, who - as you said in Aug 2023 - is "good to great at getting open using their own skills or is open when covered" or as Dawkins said, is "just that good at football"  Jefferson is a #1 WR even though he's not that tall and not that fast, because he has those traits.  Amon-Ra St Brown, same.

     

    I believe teams still covet big tall fast guys and super-fast shifty guys who are "just that good at football".  The catch (see what I did there?) is that while in theory, these guys superior physical traits should help them get open or be "open when covered".  But a lot of times, other things aren't equal, which is why a 5th round receiver like Diggs or a 4th round receiver like Amon Ra St Brown who has enough height and speed but also the hard-to-define ability run deceptive routes, to fake DBs out of their cleats, who have passion and works at their craft, becomes better at football.  

     

    I don't believe so many WR get drafted in the first round because they are "decent scheme fits", nor do they get highly paid because of this.  They get drafted in the first round because based upon college tape and measurables, GMs believe they will be "a human who could be just that good at football" in the NFL.  And that's why they get paid, too, once they prove that's who they are.
     

    Elsewhere, I made the point as far as I can tell, "#1 receiver" is becoming like "franchise QB" used to be on this board BA (before Allen): a term that people define in different ways, without realizing it, resulting in a lot of talking past each other.  But in this exchange, it seems to me you are changing up what you're talking about, to insert a definition of #1 WR as a "big tall fast stud" that you weren't stating in your various posts on this topic, and that differs from a definition you have used in previous posts (like last August, quoted above).

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Beck Water

    On 4/24/2024 at 6:35 AM, section122 said:

    A thought I can't shake:

     

    How many wrs currently in the nfl would you trade 2 1st round picks for?  It isn't many.  I get the idea of the player being cost controlled but I still have a hard time seeing it being worth it especially since it likely will cost additional picks.

     

    This.  When we traded for Diggs, we only gave up 1 - late first rounder.

     

    It would be next year's 1st, probably the next year's 2nd we got for Diggs, maybe this year's second.    So then you have to figure in the opportunity cost of the players you would have drafted and had a chance to keep on a cost-controlled contract for 4 years.

     

    The bottom line is, no one really knows for sure the effect it will have on a man to have a net worth of ~$20M (#10 pick) overnight - what effect it will have on his lifestyle, his work ethic, his willingness to sacrifice his body for teammates, his humility and willingness to listen carefully and take coaching.  Will he keep his ears open, or will he become an "alligator station"?

     

    That's one of the reasons 1st round draft picks have a variable success rate that has nothing to do with athletic measurables and skills shown on college game tape.

     

    I'm not intending to pick on these college football players, btw.  I don't think any of us really know what the effect on us would be to have $2M dropped on us, let alone $20.

     

    13 hours ago, alg said:

    Didn't they pay out some money to Diggs just before trading him?

    And doesn't the Dawkins terms make him more attractive?

     

    I'm not sure what you mean about "the Dawkins terms".

     

    No, they didn't pay out money to Diggs just before trading him.  They kept him on the roster past the date where a guarantee for his 2024 salary kicked in, so Houston got a player who was owned $19M of which $18.5 was fully guaranteed.  But Houston assumed 100% of the guarantees that kicked in just before the trade.

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

     

     

     

    I would tell Dan Orlovsky, I would like to understand how he is defining "failure/disappointment" because I don't think he's telling us straight.

     

    Kadarius Toney, Henry Ruggs, and N'Keal Harry certainly failures, but what about Dante Pettis?  Jaelen Reagor?  Rashad Bateman?  What about Jameson Williams?  Then there are guys who are can play, but maybe just aren't contributing at the level you'd like from a 1st rounder.

     

    Then what about the fact that in many of those years, one or more 2nd round picks are out-performing the 1st rounders?

     

    Questions, so many questions.

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    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

    👀👀👀👀👀

    I agree! His twitchtness is unbelievable,  phenomenal hands and route running.  A TD maker as Beane likes to say and as I said,  he's so twitchy making life miserable for DBs..

    Some insight into why they moved on from Diggs imo.

     

     

     

     

    Brandon Beane said that?  The same Brandon Beane who said this about Stefon Diggs?

    "He’s a No. 1 receiver. I firmly believe that. I’m not wavering off of that,” Beane said. “I think teams — Listen, we have to continue to put weapons out there to keep teams from bracketing him or locking him down in different ways to take him away. They know you’re gonna want to — Stef can still play. I’m sure he would love to have that deep ball again. He’d be the first to tell you. He’s super competitive. He’s going to work his tail off this offseason. I know there’s various reasons or questions on this, there’s production and all that, but I still see Stef as a No. 1 receiver.”

     

    I think Beane tends to speak the truth, but not "the whole truth" or "nothing but the truth" this time o' year.

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Beck Water

    39 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

    that whole athletic mock draft was kind of unrealistic.

     

    If they do anything like this for a WR he had better be among the leagues top wr in year one.

     

    Agreed on both points.

     

    In 2018, I will say this, though:
    Buscaglia called the Bills drafting Josh Allen, although he called them as trading up to #5 with Denver vs #7, and giving up 2019 1st rounder as well as 2018 2nd round, and drafting Allen #5.  And we have heard from Beane that they had a tentative deal fleshed out with Denver which Denver backed out of because "their guy" was on the board.

     

    The thing is, when the Bills traded up in 2018 you could read the tea leaves that they were "QB or Bust".  Dealing Cordy Glenn to trade up in the 1st round, etc.

     

    Where we are, wanting a team to trade all the way back to #28, is a hard sell, whatever Beane might or might not like to do.

     

    PS on the other hand, in 2018 Charlie Campbell had the Bills trading up to #7 and drafting a safety, Derwin James.  Nothing against James, he's a fine safety but for the draft resources :sick:

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