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First Round Bust

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  1. 10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

    I don’t know… the one smart thing about him is how he manages his money. Apparently he hasn’t spent any of his nfl earnings and has lived off of his marketing deals. I do think he’s more inclined to sign somewhere he feels is a true contender with a great Qb more than anything and money isn’t the biggest factor. He would probably rather just retire again than go play with just any team. That said I don’t think the Bills would offer the min. I do recall he said he wants to play with Joe Burrow so we will see where that goes. 

    ok maybe more of a hometown discount than min salary...1, existing cap it tight  2. Knox deserves to start  3. Bills arent and cannot pay a TE to split duties

  2. love the fitz and all that goes with him and his legacy and mutual admiration of our fair city, but at age 40, coming back from hip surgery to heave TDs and picks galore as a throwback immobile pocket of yesteryear isnt going to happen, so lets leave it at that and expect him to retire as a beloved Bill

     

    now who we gonna get...Barkley, Andy Dalton, Jake Fromm. Mariota, Winston ???? god help us

  3. interesting take, did they consider that 2 of the 3 top picks did not play the 2020 season; plus two of our later picks, the 'goose and Jack Anderson, were poached from the PS, with Anderson even having some starts for the iggles, that should be taken into overall formula as well ?

     

    The '21 Bills draft right or wrong will be judged by the productivity of two DEs and the relevnat number sacks, hurries, and then if not enough how well they set the edge and play the run...

     

     

  4. its historic, its intrinsic, we were all on board with moves like Kay Stepheson for Chuck Knox and Hank Bullough for Kay, Wade for Marv, Greg Williams as well

    Not much love for Dick Jauron, must be the name...and another mediocre coaching record prior to be hired

    But I recall my dad hating the Marv Levy hire as another one of the above

     

    I also remember the days of yesteryear when Lou Saban would move RBs to LB - Bo Cornell

    WRs to DB - Ike Harrison

    and DLs to OL and vice versa

    all within the confines of training camp

     

    He did get OJ to 2,000 yards and Joe D to the HOF, and the Bills to one playoff

     

    imagine how much we would flame and debate these kind of moves nowadays

  5. 6 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

    I have run the draft simulator on PFF about 100 times.  Sad, I know.  So I have concluded we should trade down.  Of course, I Trust the Process and Beane is a wizard.  So doing my best Beane, here is a shot at a mock that I liked - thoughts?  Tyler Smith is listed at tackle, but he is a guard for us in this mock, projected to slide inside:

     

    Round 1:  Trade down, we get 35 and 67 from Houston for 25 and 127

    Round 2 (Pick 35); Kyler Gordon, CB, Wash;

    Round 2 (Pick 57); Travis Jones, DL, Conn;

    Round 3 (Pick 67); Tyler Smith, G/T, Tulsa

    Round 3 (Pick 89); Boye Mafe, Edge, Minn

    Round 5 (Pick 166) Hassan Haskins, RB, Mich

    Round 6 (Pick 184) Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

    Round 6 (Pick 202) Kyle Philips, WR, UCLA

    Round 7 (Pick 242) Matt Ariaza, P, San Diego State

     

    I liked this about the best of all the mocks I ran.  Fire away!

    I do like the trade idea, but I like a WR in round 1 more and its a deep CB draft so trade up in the second round for a CB...I do like the variety of your picks but am stoked about the P...Ariaza is the best come out in a long time... holds the NCAA's record for most 50 yard punts and 60 yard punts,. ... And it isn't because he hits it low, as Araiza's punting average was the best in college football at 51.19 net yards, per NCAA.com.Jan 12, 2022...rumored to go in rounds 3-6 which is high but likely worth it...and I love Tarvis Jones at DT as he does press the pcoket...dont see us making 9 picks...thats too many to make our roster plus 2 got snatched from the PS last season as well.

  6. 14 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

    I'd be happy with Williams.  There would be some development that would need to happen, but he's got the freakish athleticism to make one drool.   My guess is he would not be a huge producer in his rookie year, but a team that is patient might have a real game breaker in a couple years.  It Buffalo didn't draft Williams, they might take a look at Calvin Austin III a bit later in the draft.  He's smaller - 5'9" but has a Tyreek Hill like skill set and speed.  He'll likely be the fastest prospect in the draft.

     

    1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

    I’ve discussed this at length.  @First Round Bust I skimmed your post and it looks correct.  I don’t see any kind of reworking of Star’s contract though.  He has little reason to do so.  The two realistic options are:

     

    1) Keep him this year, cut him next.

    2) Designate him a 6/1 release prior to his roster bonus that is due on 3/26.

     

    The first option is if the team really wants to move on now.  The second is if they don’t think they can swing replacing him this off-season.  The difference in spend and cap hit is $4.1M savings this season.  That’s all this really boils down to.

     

    They probably keep him one more season on his current contract. 

     

    yeah, this would be the second requested pay-cut for Star and likely as well as for Morse. which if neither bite would likely mean the release of Morse, which is not how McBeane like to operate given no existing replacement for Morse (other than Feliciano who is likely to be cut as well)...

  7. most of us want to move on from Star, but according to Joe B (Athletic - small extract below) likely have to keep one more year...

     

    warning lots of math and accounting ...not for those easily bored with facts and budgets who want to sign free sexy agents.

     

    We have just learned...because of his salary renegotiation before he opted out, $2.5 million of his base salary was automatically guaranteed for the upcoming season, now would be taking a dead-money cap hit of $7.7 million and basically robbing themselves of both the cap space and the player. due to only $700,000 in potential cap savings, it may not add up to releasing him outright.

     

    Bills can make the best of a difficult situation by negotiating a pay cut with Lotulelei for 2022.

    Even though Lotulelei’s play wasn’t as good late in the season, his value to the Bills is likely worth much more than $700k in cap space they’d save.

     

    By cutting and replace with someone who hasn’t been in their system or is inexperienced and likely at a similar cost to the cap space saved. That should be motivation enough to strike a renegotiated deal with Lotulelei. From the player’s perspective, as a 32-year-old, his best chance for maximizing his money is likely in Buffalo.

     

    base salary for 2022 is $6.15 million, $2.5 million of which is already guaranteed. If Bills ask Lotulelei to reduce that base salary by $1.5 million to $2 million and ensure the remainder, that would lock in Lotulelei between $4.15 million and $4.65 million guaranteed for the upcoming season with the chance to earn $350,000 more in per-game roster bonuses.

     

    Star likely would not come close to $4.15 million to $5 million on the open market and team already saves a minimum of $1.5 million on the 2022 salary cap, more than double what they would have saved by releasing him outright, plus they get to keep the player.

     

    Additionally, can convert all but around $1 million of that renegotiated salary into a signing bonus and prorate it over the next two seasons. A negotiated pay cut of $1.5 million and that base salary conversion would save Bills a total of around $3.3 million on the 2022 cap, more than quadruple what they would save by releasing Lotulelei outright.

     

    Reduces 2023 cap savings to move on from Lotulelei, they would still be able to save about $4.5 million to cut him next offseason...can kick the can down the road another year and not have to draft a DT with a higher pick this year  given Oliver's ascension (likely to pick up option) Harry (hoping to resign) Zimmer (depth- rehab ACL) Bryan (resigned for two year not just one - two pressures on 15 pass rushes plus position flex) and now Star...other than mid-late round PS stash would could be poached by other teams

     

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  8. 15 hours ago, Maynard said:

    I’m all about Williams if he fell to 25. Doubt he does though. 

    glad you mentioned, since we are contenders, and the future is NOW, do we have a problem being more liberal with our draft pick capital than say before when we were roster building ?  Case in point...we have nine (9) picks this draft, and we lost two picks from last season (G, CB) due to being cut and snatched from PS, (BTW I love saying *****).

    So trading-up for Jameson, based on draft points, we can go as high as pick #15 in the first round if we trade our second-round (52) as well as first (25)...is Jameson worth that ?  We can then move back into the second round by trading, say our number 3 this year and next years number 2 which gets us a CB or DT in say mid-second round...to get back into the third round we can trade 4th round picks this year and next to get BAA....then we still have several late round picks to draft guards, RB, and maybe a P ? 

    One of things we may have to do, due to the cap,  is rely more on this years draft picks as depth-backups as opposed to cut and place on PS and risk loosing as we did last year...come mid-late season the rooks are a bit more ready to play...

  9. good athletes, but lets debate pros and cons:

     

    CB - its a deep CB draft so what is the diff between pick 25 and say pick 52 for a CB which is based on Levi leaving or not ?  I say he does, if so would be a depth pick, non-starter at least until mid-season ?

     

    DT - Davis (UGA) gap-plugger and run stopper for sure, but has no pass rush skills at college level,  so a two-down player, and Bills current interior pass rush is next to nothing - other draft-eligible DTs have better pass rush stats that our  DL surely needs, OK with waiting until second rounder.

     

    IOL - other than this center, https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/tyler-linderbaum/82291/draft-profile, I dont see the Bills making an IOL a first-rounder, while we could draft Morse replacement and groom, and we don't need OT tackles this draft, at least not a high pick, so draft some guards in the middle rounds...the next Wyatt Teller pls...

     

    WR - strengthen a strength - Jameson Wiliams - my first round focus and hope -  will drop based on ACL tear in Jan 'ship game - also returned 2 kicks for TDs - big play ability is needed as Bills WR YAC was lowest in the league (and yes I am looking at you cole beasely) he becomes McKenzie replacement, start him as the limited gadget, jet sweep, backup returner to Speedy when he returns mid-late season from rehab.

     

    From PFF:

    Weaknesses

    Long but lean and lanky.

    Suffered ACL tear in the national title game.

    Press release is narrow and indecisive.

    Strider requiring extra time getting in and out of breaks.

    Competitiveness diminishes near the noise.

    Instances where he failed to finish routes.

    Below-average play strength when battling for catch space.

    Inconsistent tracking and working back to underthrows.

    Sources Tell Us
    "How does a player with this kind of talent catch only 15 balls at Ohio State? That's the question our coaches are going to ask when they get involved." -- Pro personnel director for AFC team

     

     

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  10. good for him...following in the footsteps of another Bills obsure clipboard holder, who attended five straight super bowls without playing, or is that paying ?  as well as 8 years in the NFL...great work if you can get it..and another accolade, he is a unique trivia question...suck on it Trebek

     

     

    Gale Reed Gilbert is a former American football quarterback who played eight seasons in the National Football League for the Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, and San Diego Chargers. He is the only player in NFL history to be on five consecutive Super Bowl teams, none of which won.

  11. Marcus West extract from wikipedia -

     

    Dee line all the way

     

    As a player:

    Indianapolis Colts (2006)*

    Amsterdam Admirals (2007)

    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2007)

     * Offseason and/or practice squad member only

    As a coach:

    Wartburg (2008)
    Defensive line coach

    Chattanooga (2009–2015)
    Defensive line coach

    Austin Peay (2016–2017)
    Assistant head coach/co-defensive coordinator/defensive line coach

    Minnesota (2018)
    Defensive line pass rush specialist

    Charlotte (2019–present)
    Assistant head coach/co-defensive coordinator/defensive line coach

  12. rams strength is a young innovative coach who has been to the big game twice already and has an extensive coaching tree of assistants now head coaches and he keeps on winning !

     

    he is able to take a mediocre to slightly above average qb and raise his game, (and save momey and picks in not having a super start qb to carry the team) they over-invest in the skill D positions (which the Bills seem to do) but it seems to pay, add the LA-LA-LAND sunshine and glamour appeals to vet free agents to add quality depth for the championship run...could that happen in Buffalo ?

     

    Their warts are burning high draft picks, a soon to be 41 year-old LT, a punter is 11th on your pay scale ?,  and are 10M over the 2022 cap, but that is the cost of winning.

     

    Stafford does not make to the SB if he is Bills, Chefs, Packers or Bengals qb, but now he has a ring, the game-winning-drive and TD pass in a super bowl which everybody wants !!!   

     

     

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  13. baseball ?  he could use as negotiion ploy - as a top pick or near, he commands a bonus of 5-6-7 million tops,  and then a minor leager salary until he makes the majors which unless he is major leaue ready - less than 1% chance -so really unless he wants to play baseball this a threat and nothing more...

     

    trades ?   teams that need a qb and have multiple first rounders and or a quality-decent qb coming back are plentiful...Wilson, Tua, Watson, Phll, NYG, maybe he wants to go to Pitts or TB, NO,

     

    great off-season fodder

  14. it means the end of another fun and interesting season is upon us..sigh...I always refer to the Pro Bowl as the the NFL season funeral....

     

    but we can look forward to free agency next month, excessive mock drafts (the draft cant come soon enough)...the playoffs keep getting better due in part to the salary cap and the parity it creates in a macro-sense...so its hard to go from that intensity to.....

  15. With the Senior Bowl (yesterday)  East-West Shrine (last week) games and more importantly practices going on recently Bills scouts are active...a limited extract from todays BN about Bills scouts, dirs, etc...experienced, local and national, a little insight into the process...

     

    quick name a scout, they have been with us for years...thankfully...

     

    Terrance Gray was hired by General Manager Brandon Beane in May 2017 as director of college scouting after spending the previous 11 years in the Vikings organization. At the same time, Lake Dawson was hired from Cleveland to be assistant director of college scouting. Dawson had 22 years of NFL experience before joining the Bills. Gray was promoted last May and still oversees all of college scouting.

    The Bills have five area college scouts. Pete Harris scouts the Northeast, Mike Szabo the Southeast, Brian Fisher the Midwest, A.J. Highsmith the Southwest and Tyler Pratt the West Coast. Keith Jennings is the Bills scout for BLESTO, the 12-team national scouting service.

    Dennis Hickey is a national scout who came to the Bills in 2017 after serving as general manager of the Dolphins. Doug Majeski, who joined the Bills’ scouting staff full time in 1989, is a senior college scout who mostly handles a select number of schools in the Northeast and on the West Coast.

    Gray says having such a veteran group has helped navigate the scouting challenges the past couple of years.

    “I was an area scout before I took the director of college scouting when I came here in 2017,” Gray said. “Anyone who knows the actual day to day of scouting, you’ve got to be a self-starter, you’ve got to be motivated, you’re really working independently. To have guys with that amount of experience is a great benefit.

    “Dennis Hickey is a former GM,” Gray said. “Lake was a vice president. Szabo could be a director. Brian Fisher’s experienced. Doug Majeski is a former director. It makes my job a lot easier. But beyond that, it’s great to be able to bounce ideas off guys – little check points in our process. I always tell our guys if you see something you think we can do better or that I may have missed along the way, let me know. ... Whether it’s coverage of schools, how many looks we get on a kid, the small school process, there’s so many layers to what we do. Having that degree of experience in our room is beneficial.”

    The Bills divide all the college prospects into tiers over the summer.

    Tier 1 prospects get at least two looks per area scout, at least one look per national scout, and the Bills’ top personnel executives (Beane, Gray, etc.) check them out.

    Tier II prospects, who might have peaked at the college level, are seen by at least one area scout and one national scout.

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