Billl
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Posts posted by Billl
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2 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:
I mean he avg 10 ypc... That's not why he was drafted. Anyone could've done that in Reid's system
Xavier Worthy regular season: 10.8 YPC
Khalil Shakir regular season: 10.8 YPC
Xavier Worthy postseason: 15.1 YPC (3 TDs)
Khalil Shakir postseason: 9.7 YPC. (0 TDs)
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That’s a solid deal for Beane. WR contracts are insane anymore. 4 seasons ago, the only WRs making over $15 million were Julio Jones, AJ Green, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Sammy Watkins.
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6 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:
And most of it was rub routes and behind the line of scrimmage. He doesn't play to his timed speed and is too small to develop over the middle. He's a nice wr 3 tho.
A premium Lt would be more impactful imo.
Worthy led all rookies in TDs including postseason with 12, so he’s one hell of a WR3. For the sake of perspective, Shakir has 9 in his 3 year career and just got a $60+ million contract.
I’m curious as to who you think the premium LT available at 32 was. I mean, a franchise QB would have been more impactful for the Jaguars, but I still think Brian Thomas Jr. was a pretty good pick.
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1 hour ago, streetkings01 said:
59 rec 638 yards 6 touchdowns in a Chiefs offense that was meh all season until they played the Bills in the playoffs.
How am I supposed to feel about that? Maybe I’m one of the few who doesn’t really care about the Worthy trade, because I don’t see him as being an over the hump player for us!
He played in 19 games including postseason. He had 78 catches on 119 targets plus 23 rushes for 1,037 yards and 12 TDs.
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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:
We all of course realize that in the history of recorded sports there has never been one example of a guy improving from his rookie year
The assumption is that all will rookies improve over time. That doesn’t mean they can’t be major contributors in year one, especially late in the season and in the playoffs. Coleman had 1 catch for 5 yards in the WC round, 1 catch for 5 yards in the Divisional, and 1 catch for 12 yards in the CCG. If he’d put up 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD against KC, Buffalo likely would have been in the Super Bowl. Even if he becomes a stud in year 3, that doesn’t change the past.
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
Correct but it is value above replacement and it is lower in the slot for reasons I have explained previously. A team would be insane to give multiple 1sts for him.
So what do you think Shakir is going to get on his next contract? He’s 800 yards and 4 TDS.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
But that's why slot receivers are not good uses of first round picks. Because I can find receivers who win matched up on linebackers in space on day 2 and even day 3 of the draft.
Not at the level Ladd did it, you can’t. Including the postseason, he had the third most yards in the entire league. On top of that, he exploded in the second half of the season. He’s easily worth multiple first round picks. No way they’d trade him to Buffalo for their next two first round picks, for example.
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26 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
Do you feel McConkey significantly better than Shakir? If so who did we have on the roster that have to replace Coleman on the outside?
Yes, McConkey is significantly better. I’m a fan of Shakir, but we saw his ceiling in 2023 and we saw what happens when you try to make him a #1 in 2024. As far as replacing Coleman goes, who cares? He had 550 yards and 4 TDs. Ladd’s worth Shakir, Coleman, and a 1st rounder. You build a team around a guy like that.
Guys who can get 550 yards and 4 TDs grow on trees. DeAndre Hopkins had 600 yards and 5 TDs and was traded for the 170th pick in the draft. Replacing that kind of production shouldn’t be what keeps a GM up at night. What should keep them up is figuring out how to get elite talent to help maximize the production of an MVP caliber QB.
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16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Ladd can play outside as he did at UGA. He played 70.3% of his snaps there and parlayed that into getting picked early. He played nearly 30% of the snaps on the outside as a rookie. He’s not ONLY a slot guy like Beasley for example. He’s closer to Amon-Ra St. Brown. He will probably be somewhere closer to like 60/40 slot to boundary.
Even if McConkey is strictly a slot guy, who cares? He played 17 games and had 1350 yards. Shakir played 18 games and had 900 yards. Now the debate is whether or not to give him a contract likely in the neighborhood of 4/$70 million. Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy played primarily on the outside, and Coleman looked like a slot being miscast as an X.
When you draft enough high end talent, the roster construction takes care of itself.
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2 hours ago, Cray51 said:
It was a top heavy draft that provided some great players (Daniels, Bowers, Nabers, BJT, Alt), but really cools off after pick 25.
In what way did it cool off after pick 25? Xavier Worthy went at 28. McConkey was 34. Braden Fiske was 39. Dejean went 40th, and Kamari Lassiter was 42nd. Those are all foundational pieces for the teams that drafted them.
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22 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:
He honestly seemed more interested in regaining that 3rd round pick he had given up to acquire Douglas than he was in making a pick in the 1st round.
I thought the exact same thing. It felt like he cared more about a third round pick that he didn’t have than the first round pick he did have. He started out with a first and second but no third and wound up with two seconds, a third, and no first.
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3 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:
I need to sign Cook and Shakir as they make this offense go.
Cook does, but I disagree on Shakir. He was way overused this season. He was used perfectly in 2023 and was an incredibly efficient player. He’s also a case study in diminishing returns. When people just assume that if you double a player’s targets then you can pencil them in for double the production, I’d refer them to Shakir’s 2024 season. He got more than double the targets, but his production barely moved, and his efficiency took a nosedive.
He’s excellent in his 2023 role, but trying to run an offense through him is a terrible idea. Let him be a complimentary piece similar to a Cole Beasley. Shakir should be getting around 60-70 targets a season. If someone offers him $20mm AAV, you shake his hand and wish him well.
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12 hours ago, Drewski said:
I read some articles saying he's a trade candidate. Thoughts?
And what would you want for him?
Would be hard to see him go but it's all business in the end...
When thinking about trading a player and his value, first put yourself in the shoes of the other GM. What would you be willing to give up in order to acquire a 31 year old coverage Linebacker who has missed 25 games over the past two seasons? You’d be looking at one of those swaps of 7th round picks type of trades.
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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Because I disagree with you. Inside in the NFL you can still influence with scheme. You can get Ladd McConkey 400 odd yards by matching him up on linebackers. You can shield a guard by using your centre to double guys. The reason there is and will always be a higher tarrif on people who play the outside positions in the NFL is because the extent to which you can influence those spots with scheme is more limited. There are points, normally high leverage ones too, in every game where your offensive tackles, edge rushers, boundary corners and outside receivers will be 1 on 1 and will just have to win that matchup. And that is why the value on those spots is and alwats will be higher.
Agree McConkey is a stud. And I also agree Khalil Shakir shouldn't be influencing draft strategy. That wasn't my point in terms of the corner the Bills painted themselves into. It wasn't the existence of the slot guys they had that painted them into that corner. It was the non-existence of any viable outside players. And it led multiple times this season to problems in big spots, even after trading away a 3rd round pick. In week 4 a Ravens defender said publicly that their strategy was just stack the middle of the field because the Bills were no threat outside.
I agree with your point about being able to influence matchups more easily out of the slot, but that can’t be dispositive in terms of whether or not you draft a blue chip player. I’ve seen this used to explain away why they didn’t draft McConkey or Xavier Worthy, but if you’re passing on guys who played a combined 36 games and put up 2400 yards and 20 TDs as rookies because they “don’t fit”, then something is fundamentally broken. This is especially true given that they drafted Coleman instead who is arguably a better fit in the slot but they’re trying to convert to an outside receiver anyway.
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14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
888 of his 1149 yards this year came inside vs slot corners, safeties or linebackers. Of those a staggering 451 yards came on 28 receptions from 31 targets when matched up on a linebacker. Ever likely his man coverage win % is so high. He is running routes against linebackers. It's a mismatch.
Ladd can play on the boundary. He isn't Khalil Shakir who can't. He just isn't special on the boundary. He played 30% out there (and had about 23% of his production out there). The place where he is special is in the slot where you can use him as a mismatch piece against safeties, nickels and linebackers.
I am not a hater on Ladd McConkey. I had a solid grade on him, I was definitely higher on him than I was on Keon Coleman put it that way. But anyone who thinks the Bills drafting him would have solved their boundary receiver issue is barking so far up the wrong tree they might as well be a cat.
Why do you care so much about where a player lines up? McConkey is a stud, full stop. As much as I respect your evaluations, you can’t see the forest through the trees when it comes to evaluating WRs and CBs because you haven’t caught up to where the league has gone. The best WRs play the slot. The best CBs play boundary but can also play slot, support in run defense, and can rush when needed.
Ladd McConkey would have made 32 teams better. Khalil Shakir should not be influencing draft strategy.
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21 minutes ago, Gigs said:
He looks amazing against backups. He dissapears against talent
Didn’t he just have 100 yards and a TD in the AFCCG?
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2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
Starting linebacker.. one of their best pass rushers... And one of their best run stuffers
Sweat Baun and Williams all played great this year and are going to get paid
That team is loaded. They just played the most impressive game of football I’ve seen in 20+ years.
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14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Allen is better than Favre even without a SB on his resume IMHO
There was a stretch of several years during which nobody even debated who the best QB was because Favre was on a completely different level. He won 3 consecutive MVPs and went to back to back Super Bowls win in one of them.
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Well deserved, seems like a good dude as well. Congrats
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Just now, 0017 said:
Lamar isn’t there?
If he is, I haven’t seen him. I’ve seen Josh 50 times.
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I can’t wait to find out who won. It could either be the guy sitting in the front row with his starlet girlfriend or the guy who isn’t there? The suspense is killing me.
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18 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
Yes, as much as I respect Damar I hope we don't re-sign him.
His open field tackle against Henry in the divisional was probably the best play of his career.
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2 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
Hamlin not winning Comeback Player this year or last year is a big fumble by the NFL.
Statistically speaking, the Bills will recover.
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This show has been hilarious.
The Worthy Trade Keeps Looking Worse and Worse
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Of course. In his last 10 games, he never had fewer than 4 catches and scored 7 TDs. Presumably, he’ll have Rashee Rice lined up opposite him for most of the season plus likely Hollywood Brown as well. That would be a top 5 set of receivers.