FireChans
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Posts posted by FireChans
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Just now, Doc said:
Run on WRs and OTs now
Well yeah lol. Almost all of the other first round graded players have been taken.
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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:
I don't disagree. This was a particular conversation regarding certain specific aspects of Singletary's overall game, his propensity to face an inordinately low % of 8man fronts included.
That honestly must be an error. It makes no sense.
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REACH! @GunnerBill in SHAMBLES
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Just now, Margarita said:
I keep reminding myself the bills “first round pick” is Stefan Diggs. Otherwise I’d be bitter we don’t have a selection. I don’t hunk the sure proven guy with his skills Er was a good move. It not having a 1st rounder to look forward to is a bit bittersweet
It’s so nice. We have the most proven player taken. A star already.
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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:
Sorry, 1000% sample size
Drawing a conclusion from 5% of a players plays is always a losing proposition.
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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Yeah, Carolina is definitely gunning for Lawrence or Fields.
A few other teams too.
I don’t think that many. Pats don’t seem like tankers. Lots of teams with ancient QB’s who may not get high enough.
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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
ESPN says he only faced an 8 man box 8 times. If these are the 8 times then I think it's fair to draw some conclusions from 100% sample size.
You don’t calculate sample size from its own set lol. You’d make a statistician’s head explode right now.
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
Okay Derrick Brown makes sense too. They lost 3 DTs this offseason and Short is 31 and coming off a serious injury. Brown is a really solid player.
They are going for Lawrence.
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14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Yes, these questions are supposedly answered by the Nextgen stats...which was kind of the point of the exercise.
If the plays above are the 8 times all year he faced an 8man front, he was actually more effective against it than his average attempt. If they're not, then ESPN's calculating their 8man box very differently than what that defense looks like traditionally. As it stands, I see little evidence suggesting either is incorrect.
Yes, if you believe that 8 plays is indicative of anything. Which I don’t.
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Just now, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:
Sam Darnold was a better prospect. That’s what you said “Best prospect in 20 years”. Tu’a isn’t even the best prospect in 5 years.
I’ll even say that coming out of college, Jimmy Garapalo was thought of better as a pure passer than Tu’a, but I recognize that might be a stretch.
Anyone with an injury history like him, with size like him, and is left handed, is going to have a lot of strikes against him to start his pro career.
Tua was the presumptive #1 pick for about a year and a half. This is wrong.
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1 minute ago, njbuff said:
Are you ret@rded?
Allen was projected to go first overall by a lot of folks.
All of them were projected #1 to be fair.
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3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Kind of feel bad of Tyrod. I thought the Chargers might give him a year with a total project QB in waiting. There will be huge pressure to turn the offense over to Herbert right away.
The pressure will mount when Tyrod plays like trash like he does everywhere.
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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:
gotta hit on all of those picks and their Brittle QB needs to stay healthyI mean if they hit on a couple their team will get pretty talented pretty fast. I doubt all of their picks suck.
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Just now, Margarita said:
Just because they got him doesn’t guarantee he will succeed though. High round QBs can bust its not a given.
Well of course, he could bust. But I think he’s a good prospect.
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5 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:
I’m not too worried. That team has more holes than Swiss cheese. They literally traded away an all pro DB and a Pro Bowl LT. Those will take at least two of those firsts, assuming they hit on them. Picks only do you good if you hit on them. Miami needs to hit on the rest of their firsts and their firsts next year AND have Tua not bust. That’s a lot of If’s.
They have 4 firsts left between this year and next. And an extra 2nd next year. They could be very good very fast.
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***** this is bad. The Dolphins still have two more firsts and got the QB they were trying to get the #1 pick for at the beginning of the year.
*****.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
Of course, which is why I specifically chose 8 plays: that's the amount that (according to NextGen stats) he faced an 8 man front all season
Right. But you’re still trying to draw a conclusion from those 8 plays, just the opposite one. So that’s the same problem.
A better way to make any kind of comparison. How many 8 man fronts do RB’s in the NFL face on average? How well do RB’s in the NFL do against 8 man fronts vs not? If all RBs in the NFL, all 10000 carries or whatever, do significantly worse against 8 man boxes and ALSO saw significantly more 8 man boxes than Devin on average, that would support he was likely benefitted from not facing those boxes this year, despite those 8 carries above.
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4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
gained 7 yards on this play
and finally cause my computer didn't like all these photos- gained 15 yards on the ground
...to recap- these are 8 examples of Singletary rushing against an 8 man box. Theoretically (according to NextGen stats) this is all the rushes he had vs such fronts. Except I know that can't be the case since his YPA on these rushes was a sterling 13.25 and according to the aforementioned posters his YPA was inflated by the lack of facing 8 men in the box.
From this we can surmise A- ESPN and I have a different definition of 8men in the box (totally possible- as we know the nextgen stats are computed via chip in players helmets/pads so they may not set off close enough to LOS, but cmon...these are definitely 8 man fronts by any stretch, majority run downs as well) as well as B- they might have calculated Singletary's 5.3% vs 8men in the box very low (because these are simply from his highlight reel as referenced above, I don't have the energy to go through every single snap) ie calculated it incorrectly and finally C-unless he lost a TON of yards on a BUNCH of other attempts vs 8man fronts (possible but imo wildly unlikely enough to bring down a 13.25 ypa) then the idea that his overall YPA was inflated due to facing an inordinately small percentage of 8 man fronts is simply incorrect.
Would he really have to lose a TON of yards?
Could we maybe argue D - drawing any kind of conclusion from 8 plays is silly?
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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:
Eh, the Chiefs could select me at 32 and be one of the best couple of teams in the NFL. I doubt Gibson is the pick but wanted to go bold.
It’s actually very interesting and off topic, but the Chief’s GM/FO have one of the most interesting jobs going forward. The goal is no longer SuperBowl or bust but building sustainability.
The Chiefs are stacked, you are correct. But if you are wasting first round picks, even late firsts, you won’t be stacked for long. If I’m the Chiefs GM, I start making draft picks for a year or three from now, because if you don’t, you’ll wake up one morning as the Falcons.
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19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
There are some answers that I like (Hurts, CEH, Greenard).
I will get wild though and say Antonio Gibson at 32 to KC. They can afford the luxury of an explosive playmaker and will know exactly what to do with him.
I would love it becaus that the kind of draft move that makes you waste a decade of a HoF QB’s career.
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1 hour ago, Doc said:
Is he as highly-rated as Quinnen Williams was last year?
No.
1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:What QB’s do well against interior pressure? Russell Wilson, maybe?
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1 minute ago, Doc said:
At least. The 3rd pick is 2200 points. The 18th and 26th are 1600. If they count next year's 1st as equivalent to this year's 2nd, that's 510 points, which is 90 short. And then there's the premium for moving into the top-3.
That Lions team also has a HUGE need at CB after trading away Slay. Would be hard to walk away from Okudah, especially with their HC coaching for his job next year.
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Highsmith baby, lets goooo
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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
That would be OUTRAGEOUS. Two top 5 talents in this draft could change their franchise. Draft Tua and Jeudy and let them cook.
Devin Singletary YPA vs 8Man box
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
We need to trade up for Taylor and let Singletary only play special teams. Maybe if his 2nd Gen stats prove he’s good on Punt Block, he can return a punt if Andre Roberts goes down.