[1/7/24 Week #18 GAMEDAY Bills at Dolphins PregameThread Edit: Jags lost WE’RE IN!]

Waddle and Mostert not expected to play.

So Bills are facing Dolphins without Phillips, Chubb, Howard, Waddle, Mostert, possibly Holland, and with a hobbled Hill.

This is approaching all-time fail category if they're not able to pull it off

[Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME]

14 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

Nicely done

[What are YOU doing to get the Bills into the playoffs?]

13 hours ago, stevestojan said:

I am a HORRIFIC gambler. I would lose a bet on how many times a broken clock was right in a day. 
 

So, to take one for the team, I put $250 on 3-team money line parlay for Jags, Steelers, Dolphins. There’s zero chance I win. The payout is $1,374. 
 

So, in summary, I just paid $250 for the Bills to make the playoffs. (And yes, to hedge the emotional breakdown with a grand to have fun with if the worst happens). 
 

I didn’t say I was emotionally healthy. 
 

 

 

I did the same but only $5. 😂

[Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME]

41 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss).

[Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME]

 

[What are YOU doing to get the Bills into the playoffs?]

Bills' NYT 95% chance of playoffs is very inaccurate. The actual probability that the Bills will miss the playoffs, based on the odds of a disqualifying three-leg parlay, are 18.9%. So, there is a true 81.1% chance the Bills will make it one way or another.

[Anyone else have a good feeling about the Titans vs. Jags?]

Jags will win, Steelers will win, Bills will lose, Diggs will be off the team somehow

 

Book it

[Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME]

24 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

so if we win, we’re almost certainly hosting either the Colts or Texans for the WC Game?

Would be the Steelers if they win and Jags lose

[Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME]

 

[Patriots at Bills postgame thread]

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Not how I want to get in but I could see Baltimore's back ups beating the Steelers.

Yeah, but we're now in "I could see it" territory which is not what most fans were expecting going into this week

[Road to the Playoffs]

 

[Around the NFL Week 17]

 

[Patriots at Bills postgame thread]

 

[Damar Hamlin as leading candidate for AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year receiving fan blowback]

I don't think people know what "qualms" actually means. This is the second time in less than 24 hours I've seen it misused.

[Ja’Marr Chase on Chiefs Secondary: “It’s not like they got a Jalen Ramsey..”]

I can't stand this guy. He's a big ***** #######.

[What Bills Christmas presents did you get?]

29 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Sorry? I don’t if this is serious?

It's serious. Thanks

[What Bills Christmas presents did you get?]

Nothing. My wife left me.

[Will Buffalo vs Miami be flexed to Sunday night??]

6 minutes ago, Ryan Simpsons said:

Noooooooooooooooo please nfl 

Simulcast, not exclusively streamed

[The #2 seed is actually obtainable now]

16 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

Steelers can win out and we could beat Pats, lose Miami and still get in. All we need to happen is any combination of 2 of the 5 teams that are 8-7 have to lose just 1 game and then we clinch with a 10-7 record. Ex: 1 bengals loss and 1 Colts loss or 1 Texans loss and 1 Steelers loss and we still get in at 10-7

I know, but that's not going to happen if the teams who are favored win

[The #2 seed is actually obtainable now]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

They already announced it wasn't getting flexed

This isn't true

Fun fact: the Raiders have a 68% chance of making it if they beat the Colts and Broncos.

 

Getting the 2 seed and hosting the Raiders would be fun!

[The #2 seed is actually obtainable now]

15 hours ago, Draconator said:

The Steelers games have no bearing on the Bills playoff chances what so ever. Get a grip.

This couldn't be more wrong

15 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

There's a scenario where we could be going into the final game with a win for the 2 seed and a loss knocks us out of the playoffs.  Wild.

Uber realistic. Most likely way to get to this scenario:

 

Steelers beat Seahawks and Ravens backups

All relevant favorites win

Bills beat NE, lose to MIA

 

=Bills out

 

15 hours ago, Draconator said:

I really don't think we are going to lose the next two, but obviously I'm in the minority 

??? Losing the next two is not the concern

[Bills will probably be #3 or #2 seed if they win out]

18 minutes ago, Kellyhero68 said:

 

I know? The tweet was before the Chiefs lost. They have now lost.

[AFC Standings, schedules, & Rooting Interests FINAL 1/7/24 BILLS 2 Seed!]

15 minutes ago, Billznut said:

I’m pretty sure this is not accurate. A few other games would have to have certain outcomes for this to be realistic. As far as I know. 

If what I said in the tweet happens and the teams who are favorites when their games, this is exactly what the scenario will be.

[AFC Standings, schedules, & Rooting Interests FINAL 1/7/24 BILLS 2 Seed!]

 

[AFC Standings, schedules, & Rooting Interests FINAL 1/7/24 BILLS 2 Seed!]

The Bengals-Chiefs game next week is MASSIVE. If the Bengals can pull the upset, which I can totally see, we're going to be back in nail-biting territory.