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Mikie2times
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Posts posted by Mikie2times
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8 minutes ago, Avisan said:
Are we going to pretend here that QBR has zero correlation with quality of team coaching?
He's not getting into X's and O's, mechanics, or overriding Brady with any frequency. He's not a QB coach and has no offensive experience.
What do you think he is doing with Allen to impact that number so much?
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11 hours ago, muppy said:
my go to is the built in beer fridge under the family room desk STOCKED at all times with beers of all flavors. My go to's are Stella Artois , Moose head or Corona. Hubby likes dark chewier beers even an occasional Guinness, fat tire, Sam Adams etc
lol I went to the beer fridge to see what he had stocked in there. My son was home recently and his friends brought over some crazy stuff
"Elysian Superfuzz Blood Orange Pale and a Elysian Contact Haze HAZY IPA....what the heck?...that last one I wondered if it were somehow cannabis infused lol Geez
tagging @Mikie2times for veracity lol 🙂
I can validate 😆 I like Stone as well, food is decent, great vibe, and the beer is great.
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19 minutes ago, FireChans said:
He might be!
What if he’s one of those coaches that had to fail for a large part of his career and then turns it around and becomes a winner and a HoFer?
What’s the standard deviation of wins? In a 16-17 game schedule, the difference between 74% and 72% is non-significant.
It's not significant. What is significant is teams having a nearly identical regular season record as us with the QB play we had. Everybody wants to boast about our regular season championships and how we might lose that consistency if it weren't for McD. Our fan base is like a bunch of beaten dogs. McD gave us a treat for the first time in 20 years and and we didn't think we deserved more. Meanwhile the best window in this franchises history is going to pass us by as a result.
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1 hour ago, FireChans said:
None of this has anything to do with what I said. He would still have broken the drought.
Not to mention, this QBR “analysis” is terrible lol.
Sorry.
I mean, what exactly is flawed with looking at teams record with high performing QB’s? If you want to take it back prior to 2020 you can. It included over 20 qualifying teams. The fact is you just don’t lose a lot of games in this league when you get QB play at that level. It’s a huge advantage. Your baseline win% pushes 75% when you get that level of QB play. So it becomes really hard to parcel out what contribution your coach makes especially when your performance is so poor in the postseason and on the side of the ball he specializes in.
How can you explain Burrows performance in 3 separate opening drives? Does that not shine a light on a deficiency in game planning and X’s and O’s?
These are the teams that have faced KC multiple times in the playoffs during the Super Bowl run and how Mahomes has performed.
KC is the best, but why are they just a little bit better against us?
Our AFC east titles are built on facing teams without winning records and a team that can’t beat any teams with winning records. Our playoff appearance in 2017 built on a one more win than Rex Ryan accomplished. These are things to feel good about, sure. But are you carrying these trophies into games vs Burrow and Mahomes as evidence that we can even perform at an average level?
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4 hours ago, Billl said:
He had a WR exactly like Claypool. His name was Kelvin Benjamin.
Come on now. Duke Williams was closer to Benjamin than Claypool. Neither are in the same ball park athletically to Claypool.
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2 hours ago, FireChans said:
You asked what he would be. He would’ve been the HC of the most successful season in the last 17 years of Bills history.
If the average winning % in the NFL since 2020 for teams that have a QBR of 65 or better on the season is 74% and we have had a 72% winning % then is that hard to determine what exactly this would look like with a replacement level coach? Allen has been over a 65 every year since 2020. This isn't that complicated. All these people defending our AFC east crowns and glory years as if that would just cease to exist are kidding themselves. This division sucks and we start every hand with an ace. Winning every year in this group is par for the course. Miami is the only scent of competition and they can't beat anybody who is .500 or better. McD is Jag and when we go up against strong competition he proves it time and time again.
How is it even possible the Bengals have opened with three drives on us, over 150 yards, zero incompletions, and 21 points. You have multiple games to learn from your experiences and nothing. It is difficult to be that bad. Like REALLY difficult. If somebody asked me if a team would be able to open with 3 drives, 3 scores, and no incompletions on over 15 throws I would literally bet everything in my bank account that wouldn't happen. That's not even bringing up KC. That is the Bengals, the team nobody talks about because they're stuck on discussing why we were too injured to stand a chance against KC.
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3 hours ago, HappyDays said:
This is something:
As they say timing is everything, best WR on our roster if the timing is right. You had to wonder why a team like Buffalo would consider him. That is why it peaked my interest. They had to have seen something to make them feel it would be different this time.
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Maybe Tyreek and Brown can start a daycare. I would trust them.
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2 hours ago, McBean said:
The better question is, how much better would the drought QB’s have been if they had HC Sean McDermott?
Sean made Josh. Not the other way around. Know this.
McD the QB whisperer. By all means, don’t be afraid to discuss your thought process.
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6 minutes ago, bearstobills said:
And McD took a Tyrod Taylor led team with mediocre weapons to the playoffs in his first year. I'd say that's getting the best out of your players. Btw, I'm not a McD believer, but I definitely wanted to counter your argument.
I hate to sound like a broken record but if we don't get in by a miracle that season blends in with the rest pretty easily. Even worse by plenty of measures. Not enough to anoint the man and the records of teams with elite QB play is plenty to explain away our success. As I said earlier, teams with a QBR of 65 or higher have a better winning than we do in the regular season since 2020.
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-The Bills are 48-18 since 2020 with a regular season win % of 72.7%. All 4 season Josh Allen posted a QBR of 65 or higher.
-The rest of the NFL is 211-73 (74.3% winning %) since 2020 when a team has a QB with a 65 or higher QBR on the year and at least 10 starts.
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43 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:
McD's first playoff loss wasn't much of a disappointment to me because it was so expected. That roster just wasn't good.
Since then, I've had some higher expectations. But at the beginning of the playoffs, I never thought, "This is our year." The landscape was never particularly favorable. Every year, there were teams that were healthier, or better, or both.
So overall, I think McD's playoff record is about what I'd expect given the strength of the roster at the start of the playoffs. And I suppose that, in itself, is disappointing. You want the coach to elevate the team and squeak out some victories against better squads. McD hasn't done that - not in the playoffs.
Though, any statistician will tell you about the importance of sample size. Coaches don't coach enough in the playoffs for their performance there to become a meaningful sample. But they do coach a lot of regular-season games. And the Bills' success is well known...
Since 2020:
KC 51-16
Bills 48-18
Packers 43-24
Cowboys 42-25
49ers 41-16
When pitted against other NFL coaches, McD usually comes out on top. It doesn't happen as often in the playoffs because (1) tougher opponents, (2) injuries, and (3) bad luck. It's not because McD suddenly turns into a coaching moron. Anyway, the small sample size makes the record an almost meaningless metric. Reid went 6-5 in his first 11 playoff games. McD's 5-6. I'm hoping things coalesce and McD, like Reid, ends up with 3 rings.
Just covering your stuff, but might as well include all the rest of it.....
Teams with a QB in the top 5 in QBR have gone 225-86 since 2020, good for a 72% winning which is identical to McD's regular season winning % during that time. Allen has finished 3rd, 6th, 2nd, and 3rd in those years. We should expect to win 70% of our games with a top 5 QB.
Just looking at who made the conference championship and beyond since 2020. If you have a QBR in the top 5 you have a 50% chance of going to the conference championship. 3 of the 4 Super Bowl winners are represented.
2023 = 2 of the 5 made it to the conference championship, one made it to the Super Bowl
2022 = 2 of the 5 made it to the Super Bowl, one won the Super Bowl
2021 = 3 of the 5 made it the conference Championship, one won the Super Bowl
2020= 3 of the 5 made it to the conference Championship, one won the Super Bowl
Andy Reid is 15-3 in the playoffs since Mahomes. Prior to that he is 11-13.
Burrows is 14 of 14 for 181 Yards and 3 TD's on opening drives vs Buffalo
One of those games he had 3 starting offensive lineman out, why do injuries only matter for us?
We have accomplished nothing more than what you should expect to accomplish with a top 5 QB in the NFL. We have no basis to suggest we have performed any better or worse.
Regarding the infamous playoff drought year we allowed the exact same amount points as we did two years prior under Tyrod Taylor and Rex Ryan while scoring 77 points less. About 6-10 teams per decade make the playoffs with a -50 point differential. We ended up being one of them. Anoint the man.
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Joe Burrow on his first 3 drives vs Buffalo
14 for 14, 181 Yards, 3 TD's
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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I think he could yes. The defeat to the Bengals two years ago was on the players. Josh included. He sucked.
Last year? How about the first 3 drives for both teams in the three times we have seen them? Did they not score fast enough the previous three tries?
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
Or when he doesn't have to get past that same Patrick Mahomes.
You think he's getting past the Bengals?
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I love people talking about Andy Reid, as if that is a possible development story McD could aspire to.
Reid playoff record with Mahomes 15-3, 4 AFC Championships, and 3 Super Bowls
Reid playoff record without Mahomes, 11-13, one NFC Championship
I guess we can expect things to get better when McD gets a better QB 😆
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We would have gotten to at least a few divisional playoffs games and likely at least one AFC championship game. So not that different.
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1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:
Uhm...
McD made the playoffs with
Tyrod Taylor
Kelvin Benjamin
Deonte Thompson.
And
Vlad Ducasse.
He is no Jauron. But to be fair Jauron never had Ramon Humber.
What incredible thing did he do his first year? Dalton doesn't complete that pass and he blends in with the rest of the 20+ years of futility without a second thought.
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1 hour ago, zow2 said:
Yeah, when i think about this stuff it bother me. A team like the Steelers have all the trophies and their best two QB have been Bradshaw and Roethlisberger. I'm sorry but Kelly and Josh Allen are better than that duo and we have squat. So obviously it points to coaching and a serious lack of clutch defense when it matters most.
McD is organized, consistent, respected. He is certainly above average. I just don't think he is A) the X's and O's guy we want B) the strategic thinker we want as far as taking the next step. Skilled offenses take his system apart. Bengals and KC specifically and just because they have skill doesn't mean it's white flag time. KC and the Bengals both have defenses that have performed even better as competition grew in the past. We have no answer for either team on either side. It doesn't get discussed but things like the fake punt. They fumbled, it shifted the narrative to the missed TD pass. But awful, awful call. Being aggressive was not the wrong call. A poorly executed fake point with Damar Hamlin was the wrong call and it could have been a decision that cost us a Super Bowl had the script been different.
Do the Bills at the very least get to one AFC Championship game without him? I have to think the answer is yes. Does Allen make us a perennial contender? I have to think the answer is yes. So why do people just cling to this notion that since we sucked for 20+ years we should wait until McD becomes synonymous with guys like Wade Phillips or Marty? Hell, it's already happening. The odds of us going full blow in that direction are so sever vs the odds of the narrative changing.
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The only coaches in NFL history with a .600 or better winning % an no Super Bowl, NFL Championship, or conference championship are Marty, Lafleur, and McD.
When you move that goal post to .550 the list includes.
Mike Smith
Don Coryell
Mike Zimmer
Wade Phillips
Jason Garrett
Chuck Knox
Kevin Stefanski
Chuck Pagano
He has the best QB out of anybody on either list and by a mile in most instances. Do something to change it.
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Legend, glad he was able to live a long life.
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Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:
Wait is that the online of abs? Must be AI because I read right here he doesn't do anything in the offseason.
Gabs. You get them from rotating your torso. They come with a porn stash.
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I never realized the guys on the cover are not actually Jim, Thurman, Andre, and Bruce. I thought it was an older photo at first but I zoomed in and that’s certainly not them back then. At best the older versions and I don’t think that’s even possible.
Caleb Williams is off to a rough rookie start
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I didn't see Williams do very much that was designed. He was however a complete freak off schedule. To me he is a poor mans Josh Allen. Does not have all the athletic skill Allen has but a talented kid. Will he be able to reinvent himself to be more structured? Josh was able to do it enough.