Backintheday544

Id vote for her. But I prefer a Shapiro or Whitmer. I think anyone they chooses though energizes the base more than Biden. My phones been blowing up from my Dem friends about this who haven’t said anything about the election before.

Because 1) she can pick her VP. Picking Shapiro gives her PA if she’s already in the margin of error. 2) if you look at senate polling, Dem senators in swing states are doing a ton better than Biden. So the switch would likely give her a boost to align with what down ballot polling is showing.

Public policy is the only Trump Harris poll I saw from a couple days ago. Trump +2. Within margin of error and without Harris campaigning: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/07/18/so-you-wanted-some-harris-polling-00169524

Id put money on a VP from MI, WI or PA.

Ahhhh going with dense. Got you. I can’t deal with dense since you come off like a 4 year old. Blocked

Great! We’re going with you just being stupid. I can work with that. ok so Trump was almost assassinated. In plain language that means someone tried to kill him (keeping the words small for you). We then looked at the first polls after the attempt. A poll is where people are asked their opinion. Now this is where it might get confusing for you. We saw that the first polls didn’t really change post assassination attempt. When all that happened Trump was for sure running against Biden. Now yesterday, big news came out. Don't worry about reading those nasty left wing leaning news outlets about it. There’s a couple threads here. A lot of senior Dems, and Obama (he’s that mean man you don’t like) said Biden should not run. Then there was news Biden may drop out. Drop out is like what you did in high school, except this is the Presidential race. Now in US politics people vote for people. If they get more votes then they get a job (something you may get one day!). If Biden doesn’t run, he can’t get votes. Because someone else not named Biden is running instead. Now if someone not named Biden runs, that means polls of Trump vs Biden don’t mean anything. Why? Because he’s not running. So that’s a lot of words for you and I’m sorry if so many put together makes your head a little ouchy, but hopefully now you can understand why polls of Trump v Biden on Monday may not mean as much as polls of Trump v Biden on Friday.

I don’t know if you’re dense or just amazingly stupid, but there’s been some pretty major changes this past week on if Biden will be the candidate. So yes, if the Dems change out Biden, please keep looking at Trump Biden projections dumbass.

Since you have no preference, the. Let’s keep with 538. Trump has a great run politically and he’s still 50/50 to win vs an 83 year old that none of the Dems want to run; https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Also what of Nate’s modeling do you think is more accurate than 538 or is it just your feels that his is better?

Hard to look at data when we don’t know who Trump is running against. Several Dems are polling well ahead of Biden vs Trump so we will see post Dem convention when they make their nomination where the polls are at.

Why you looking at Trump vs Biden? Why didn’t you share these Nate Silver tweets?

Luckily he wouldn’t need it then because if he’s at least +5 over Trump in WI as internal Dem PACs show, then he’d have the lead there.

From this Dem leak: Give me Shapiro. He would win PA easy. The plus 5 over Biden in WI and MI would give him the election with PA.

Here’s the full clip; https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/video/trump-tuchman-wisconsin-rnc-voters-performance-digvid 2 As of the 13 but mostly B and Cs That actual panel gave: A - 2 B - 5 C- 4 D - 2 so just as many Ds from undecided as As

They granted a stay. I can’t disagree with any argument saying Biden is wrong because they haven’t ruled it. It probably sucks for the people who had cancellation since their debt would be at max $12,000 I believe, but overall 97 percent of Biden’s student loan forgiveness is still granted.

It’s the 8th circuit putting an emergency stay on it. you can read the entire ruling here: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca8.109302/gov.uscourts.ca8.109302.805045608.0.pdf It’ll take you 10 seconds. its interesting as this is for the SAVE plan. Presidents in the past have been allowed to change plans. Bush, Trump and Obama all did it. This is now destined for the Supreme Court. Would totally change student loans if the SC finds the President cant change plans. I think the interest part of this ruling that the other court rulings didn’t do was it blocked the cap on monthly repayment at 5 percent from the 10 percent it was (depending on plan). Toss everyone’s loans on administrative forbearance into SCOTUS determines. Gets everyone closer to their 10 or 20 years without making payments. This highlight to the several million voters that Republicans just made their monthly student loan payment increase. Biden also announced another $2 billion in PSFL forgiveness today. Also this effects $5.5 billion of the $168.5 billion forgiven.

Voters don’t chose the Presidential nominee. The delegates at the convention do. Biden can release his delegates to vote who they want at the convention. We have to remember, Biden is not the official nominee for the Dems yet.

Politico got a Dem PAC internal polling: 4 Dems are polling 5 points better than Biden in swing states: Kelly, Moore, Whitmer, Shapiro. Give me Shapiro. He wraps up PA for the Dems.

Man you need to take a reading comprehension class. i said I didn’t subscribe to him. I didn’t subscribe to him because of how he compared himself to 538, which I provided.

This was Nate’s comparison so I haven’t followed his: The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. (Other changes are documented here.3) If you’ve received this post by email or are viewing it on the Substack app, we strongly recommend that you instead use the web version for interactive charts. Charts in the app don’t update when we add new data, so switch over to your browser to see our most up-to-date forecast.

I don’t subscribe to Nate Silver so I haven’t seen it. Can you copy and paste the write up?

I figured yall were covering 2 with digging into the Secret Service failed due to DEI thing yall have been discussing so I just focused on the polls since they just came out.

He didn’t die. We’re not going to get fun legislation like the Brady bill after the Regan assassination attempt. The only thing really left is 1) what effect will it have on the election (which we can only see thru polls) or 2) come up with crazy conspiracy theories

If you look back in the thread, several people said this wrapped up the election for Trump. We will see how other polls come out, but I think it just shows the Trump contingent is pretty set at that 44-47 percent range when it’s Biden v Trump.

First polls out post assassination attempt and…….. no Trump boost: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680 Here’s the poll: https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/democratic-voters-remain-divided-over-ditching-biden 46/45 Trump. 2 percent margin of error. Prior Morning consult polls: Trump +2,Trump +2, Trump +2, Trump +1 (defending order by date)