Backintheday544

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice

Right now NYT needle has: House 227 Rep - 208 Dem Sen 51 Rep - 49 Dem but has Walker winning. If he doesn’t get 50 percent it’s a run off where he most likely loses making it 50-50 again. If that’s the outcome of the night, the Republicans take a big L. Vastly under-performed their expectations. That’s not even a red wave in the house. With a President favorability rating low, inflation high, or should have been a red tsunami but it won’t be.

MA elects first lesbian governor: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/massachusetts-maura-healey-rcna55236

He’s not even gay. Let alone the first openly gay governor. That was the guy in CO a couple years ago,

His name is Wes Moore. He lost to Dan Cox.

209 of 226, Spanberger takes the lead in VA07 https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2022 November General/Site/Member_House_of_Representatives_(07).html

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2022 November General/Site/Member_House_of_Representatives_(07).html Abby down 49.14 to 50.68. 203 of 226 reporting. Prince William has 7 districts left and FBurg City has 2.

VA10 and VA7 looking more definitely blue. VA10 means red tsunami is most likely off. VA7 means a red wave is probably off. Closeness of each means blue wave is gone. Ill call it now, Dems keep Senate, Republicans flip the house, but not by much.

I mean, anything is legal if you have money.

You have Spotsy, Prince William and Stafford as the primary big counties. Prince William is pretty big. Vega would need to do better than the 53 percent she’s getting in Spotys to win. Not totally the same counties but Spotsy was part of the district that voted out Eric Cantor for Bratt because Cantor wasn’t right enough, If it goes to a run off Walker could always abort his campaign or pay someone to abort it for him. I don’t like his chances in a run off where Kemp isn’t helping to drive out vote.

He’s from Culpeper one of the parts in VA 7 but you can see the break outs here: https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2022 November General/Site/Member_House_of_Representatives_(07).html Abigail is down 7,000 votes. 39 districts not in. 21 of those are Prince William where Abigail is up 64/36 with larger population centers. Fredericksburg city leans hard D and is 3 outstanding. Theres just too much volume that will go D.

We can see the prior tweet from the right leaning poster is clearly false. Vega hasn’t had 77 percent of the vote since it was 1 percent of the districts reporting. This, VA2 and 10 are the ones I’m following most tonight. 52.3/47.5 now with more Prince William coming

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2022 November General/Site/Member_House_of_Representatives_(07).html Spamberger is close with major dem areas not reporting

VA7 one of the projected indicators looking good for Dems:

There’s several criminal investigations against him due to it.That tends to hurt someone.

They showing national wide and state by state.

Watching NBC’s exit polls, I’m more hopeful for Dem prospects than this morning.

Exit polling is putting abortion high in peoples issues. CNN has an exit poll on abortion; Slightly fewer than 4 in 10 said they felt enthusiastic or satisfied about the decision, while about 21% said they felt dissatisfied, and roughly 4 in 10 that they were angry. About 60% of all voters said that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, up from 51% among voters who turned out for the 2020 general election.

Interesting exit poll in PA:

I didn’t ask why they didn’t vote for it. SoCal informed us: “Stop taking everything on face value. The adults I saw this past week wouldn’t have been helped by another pork filled federal spending bill. WAKE UP“ I simply provided the bill and asked him to show the pork. If you would like to show the pork go ahead.

It’s nice for you to give your own opinion…. Oh wait you don’t really have one except for copying and pasting news articles. plus this bill is filled with pork which is what your fellow righties said. None of your post is pork.

Here’s the bill, please point to the pork. Since you say it’s filled with it, if you only want to point to a couple provisions that’s fine: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7780/text?format=txt

Where in the Constitution does it say all government actions must be fair? If we cure cancer tomorrow do we not give it to people currently with cancer because it wouldn’t be fair to the people who died before? Is it fair when the GOP passes tax cuts that help the wealthy but raise the deficit a ton like TCJA? No. Why? Because government action doesn’t need to be fair. Any time the government acts, there will be people who come out for the better and people who feel it isn’t fair.

Debt to income doesn’t make sense. Say a lawyer has $150k in debt (3 years at $50k). Makes $200k. Debt to income is .6. A person making $30,000 took out $10k for community college. Their ratio is .33. So in your scenario, are we giving forgiveness to the higher ratio or lower ratio? plus the administrative burden is an issue. We saw with the stimulus payments what a pain it was to get IRS systems to talk to SS systems so people on SS who don’t file got a stimulus. Now you’d have DOE trying to talk to IRS and do a calculation. (Maybe it won’t be as hard since DOE already pulls IRS income info for IBR)