glazeduck
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Posts posted by glazeduck
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13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Who you like?
"Like" might be too strong of a strong word, but in the event that Star is not cutting it AND we don't draft a rookie capable of holding his own, DaQuon Jones, Steve McClendon, Daniel McCullers, Abry Jones, Domata Peko, Snacks Harrison could all be worth a look. And, in this scenario, if we're supposing that Buffalo doesn't draft any of the 8ish 1Ts available in the draft, there's also the possibility of additional veteran cuts (because other teams WILL be drafting them).
I'm not Brandon Beane, but I see 1T as a very plug & play position. That's not to say that there aren't better or worse players out there, but it's almost impossible to have a superstar at that position, so if you're going to get, say an "80" out of one guy and a "75" out of another and there's a big difference in cost, I'd opt for the 75. Given the relative depth at the position in the draft and knowing there are at least serviceable bodies in FA, it's not a position I'm wanting us to splurge on...
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There are a LOT of reasonable solutions in FA left, too. We'll be fine here even if Star isn't up to snuff.
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6 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:
What is the bears plan exactly? They should have fired Nagy and just blew it up. Dalton for a year to go 8-8 and have no QB, no way to get one and an aging defense
They're a mess. Ownership is cheap so they're trying to make it work with Nagy one more season. I called this a "must-win" season for them about a month ago and people laughed.
That said, I think the argument is that they have enough on the defensive end to be competitive. ARob, Kmet, Mooney and Montgomery with a QB that doesn't make a lot of mistakes isn't sexy but could win some games. It's a thin margin there, but it's looking like they're going to be in a lot of 17-13 type games...
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1 minute ago, HOUSE said:
I am guessing with Tribisky in Buffalo, Beane could be one of the interested teams. I think he needs a new start...
Yeah I could definitely see it, definitely agree he needs a new start (would certainly help my dynasty team!).
It seems as though we're looking at speedy KR/deep threat guys and bigger guys and Miller's not really either of those things, hence my thinking of them waiting to see how the draft falls out first, but even as just a replacement or camp competition for Duke, I'd be all for it.
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I liked this guy coming out and for whatever reason, he's not really clicked... Feels more like a guy who might be worth a future pick if we opt to go elsewhere in the draft.
Guessing someone else likes him more than we do, but could certainly do worse and would be an interesting future replacement for Beas...
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8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
Exactly! I'm high on Alim, but think there's a small chance we go DT in the first 3 rounds. I think I like Tonga best of all the late rounds NT prospects.
Tonga's an interesting one. I'm discounting just about EVERY BYU player this year because of their absolutely silly/fluky scheduling situation, but he's been a solid performer for years. 1Ts are very replaceable in my eyes, so I think I hope we just take the last "solid" option on the board, but I do love me some big polys in the trenches. Wouldn't hate it if we took him late enough!
Also LOVE Alim! He's probably my biggest exception to the "replaceable" rule in this class...
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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Eliminating players from consideration using that methodology is bad practice.
It actually works both ways........in some seasons where the class is considered strong at a position.......players actually get moved up higher than they should on the assumption that it's just a great class..................the rising tide raises all ships.
In years where it's assumed there is no talent.........sometimes players get written down because of the perception of the class as a whole.
George Kittle is the best in the game........he didn't slip to the 5th round because he was in a great TE class...........he slipped because he was mis-evaluated.
That can happen in a good class or a bad one.
Agree to disagree on just about all of this...
The draft evaluation process is almost never a binary thing -- barring you and I or Thanos being in the draft, every player will be on some sort of evaluation spectrum for every front office. I didn't "eliminate" your guy, I simply said he was "probably a JAG" (also probably not the insult you're taking it as, more on that in a minute). That's not to say that Beane and his team have no idea who Bushman is or deleted his evaluation page without filling any of it out, simply that he's likely nothing special.
It's important to keep in mind that front offices are having to constantly track, evaluate, rank and do due diligence on more than 500 of the world's best athletes across 24 positions, use those evaluations to develop a strategy in concert with the coaching staff and then identify how to optimally execute. And all of that is happening first during the playoffs and then free agency and the offseason (where they're absolutely also keeping track of their own players, personnel taking time off, etc.) I'm exhausted just typing all of that out.
Simply put, there's too much going on for them to be completely dialed in with every prospect, all the time, so that kind of back-of-napkin math can be helpful. Teams monitor sites like The Draft Network every day to make sure there's not something that they missed because, 1) ESPN, TDN, etc. don't have to worry about the external stuff and can focus solely on evaluations and pumping out content, and 2) because that has now become big business. Anyone can write about how great so many of these WRs are -- and many of us on this site have for free. The big scores would come in finding that needle in the haystack. So my point on Bushman, is -- if there was substantial evidence that he could be some diamond in the rough -- it's a good bet that there would be a decent amount of content out there hypothesizing that, and beyond BYU fan sites, there's not a ton. Like it or don't, but that's more or less the process in a real front office, so I tried to answer your question as such. At the end of the day, EVERY draft pick is at least somewhat an educated guess, and teams use every resource possible to get as much education as possible, but that's also balanced with the need to triage their work, so guys like Bushman, who may or may not even get drafted will automatically get less attention in the evaluation process, than, say, a Pat Freirmuth. That's just the way it works.
To your point on Kittle, he wasn't some unknown quantity, he just wasn't a special athlete or body going the draft process. That class was actually stocked with TE prospects: OJ Howard and David Njoku were two of the best athlete profiles in TE draft history; Evan Engram, Jordan Leggett and Jake Butt were studs in college, and Adam Sheehan had the basketball prototype that GMs are still overdrafting. Kittle wasn't some little known prospect, he was just pushed down by guys who -- at the time -- were better athletic prospects or appeared to be more well-rounded players. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to his smaller stature, most GMs thought the was maxed out as a Jordan Reed type and didn't anticipate him becoming a better athlete. Is some of that misevaluation? Maybe, but quite clearly he has become a better athlete since the 2017 draft, so you have to give the guy credit for his own development as well. But he was 100% an example of a talented guy getting pushed down in a good (or perceived to be good) class.
Lastly, on the JAG thing -- a former player of his (forgetting who, I'll try to dig it up) recently joined a podcast to talk about how Sean McVey saw essentially 90-95% of his roster as JAGs -- like, literally replaceable on the daily type JAGs. His philosophy was that special players win and lose you games, and there are only a handful of special players on each team, so he wanted his personnel strategy to be focused on adding those special type players and filling in with JAGs (FWIW, the Rams' general strategy over the past 5ish years seems to back that up pretty solidly). While that may be a bit on the extreme side, even if you extended the ratio to be 50/50, we're still talking about 30 guys every roster who are "just another guy", meaning very easily replaceable with similar talent and skillset. Now take what we know about draft success rates, -- where even first rounders routinely bust -- and you're looking at verrrrry long odds...
All of the above is meant to be educational, not confrontational -- you asked what I thought about Bushman: I think at best he's a replaceable/replacement-level player (there are worse things to be in or around the NFL). Maybe he becomes something special, and I can agree that -- in general -- a guy coming off an injury has the ability to be under or misevaluated, but I can just about guarantee you that GMs are going to take chances on a lot of other guys over a guy already in his mid-20s (redshirt senior + mission) coming off of a torn Achilles. Like I said... long odds.
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1 hour ago, Motorin' said:
wow!
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1 hour ago, CNYfan said:
What is the Board opinion on Matt Bushman - TE-BYU?
This is a an injury sleeper, that has me somewhat intrigued. I do not watch significant college foot just read up draft prospects in March and April.
I’ve read and watched next to nothing on him, so the following should be taken with a grain or more of salt...
He’s very likely a JAG. The logic being that this TE class is SO BAD that any option with any amount of potential would instantly stand out. Maybe a guy like that goes under the radar in a stacked class like this year’s WR class, but not when we’re talking about literally 5 viable guys (and I have reasonable doubts about 2 of those).
Time will tell, and I’m familiar with the injury situation, but probably not anyone I’d bet any meaningful amount of money on...
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15 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:
He’s definitely a DAWG!! How fast is he?
Not a blazer but fast enough.
Ran mid 4.4s at his pro day but looks like he plays more like a 4.6ish guy.
Not always the case but I think it’s fair to suggest he might get a little faster with pro training and likely will be able to improve his route running with pro coaching.
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16 minutes ago, Philly McButterpants said:
The guy didn't draft himself. He may have been a POS, but this is a stupid reason.
I wasn't aware I needed a good reason to dislike a player. My bad, thanks for setting me straight.
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Just now, NewEra said:
If any of those players were the pick @30, it means that they like that particular player more than the others for one reason or another and don’t want to chance letting him go. If that’s the case I wouldn’t be upset. If the guy they pick turns out to be a good starter for the next 5-10 seasons, no one will talking about if they’re worth it or not. It’s worth it.
that’s said, if there isnt one guy that stands out and they’d would be happy with a handful of corners, trade down or draft a different position.
Yeah I obviously don't have their board, but it really feels like a Melifonwu or Campbell type at 30 would be a pretty massive reach to my own eyes. I'm with you on trusting their evaluations and if it works out it'll ultimately be moot, but that reach feeling feels twice as cringe-worthy when you consider the pool of talent at that position (again, to my eyes)...
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17 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Yup. Looking like corner. There are a handful of corners that could be worthy of the 30th selection. I think surtain and Horn will be gone by the 12th pick. Farley could be gone by then as well. Any of these guys could be the pick
Farley
Newsome
campbell
Melinfonwu
Stokes
some say Samuel
Really only your top 2 feel like "worthwhile" picks at 30 -- there's about 8 guys that are about the same caliber as your bottom four, some of which will likely be able to be had at 61.
I think a trade up or back are both very likely. Beane likes to move around to go get his guy, and has shown time and again that if he can't, he's open to moving back to draft value. While I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a risk on Oweh, if both he and Ossai are on the board at 30, it feels incredibly likely that we may take even a little less than fair value to move back a few spots where we could still get one of those guys...
I appreciate the OP's hard work and I think it's definitely a worthwhile thought exercise, but Beane just isn't the type of guy to let himself get stuck in a situation where he has to take a guy he doesn't like just because the board shakes out that way. He'll move up or back...
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There's a bunch of late rd WRs who are interesting, but this guy has won my heart...
https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/04/2021-nfl-draft-profile-wr-jonathan-adams-jr/
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2 minutes ago, Success said:
Fans have always held draft position & contract dollars against a player. That has never really affected how I feel about a player - that's more a reflection of the front office.
I always liked Whitner, Kelsay & a few others who fall under that category.
Everyone watches sports differently, that's what's so great about them.
For me, as a Bills fan and someone who was going to classes WITH Haloti, watching him absolutely destroy triple teams on a weekly basis at Oregon, it was stupidity compounded upon stupidity compounded upon stupidity.
Whitner could've been a Hall of Famer and I still would've held being picked over Haloti against him.
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12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
That wasn’t Whitner’s fault. I am a lifelong Buckeyes fan and was still living in Ohio when the Bills drafted him. I was like “What are they thinking? Good player, but that high? Crazy.” Then we all watched the Browns GM, Phil Savage, hand Haloti Ngata to the Ravens and lost our collective 💩
Oh and F Kelvin Benjamin.
You're not wrong, it's not Whitner's fault we made a bad decision. That doesn't change the fact that all I could think about was how awesome it would be to have Ngata in the trenches throughout the Whitner era...
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Whitner. That we took him over Haloti will always haunt me (and the franchise).
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2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
Right.....but what was Shaq Thompson's snap count.......starter right?
Isaiah Simmons' snap count was 30ish% and that guys' one of the freakiest athletes to ever get drafted. Better draft capitol than Thompson too.
That's not starter numbers.
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28 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
This is a great post. "Big Nickel" carries some magical connotation, but the idea is a bigger extra DB who can cover and play the run well is better than a smaller smaller extra DB. Having someone who can do both makes the defense a little less vulnerable against the run when in nickel.
The "Big Nickel" is only special if you have a special player to play it - like pretty much every position.
It doesn't *have* to be a special player -- most players on every roster aren't special players. But when you have a capable nickel DB in TJ already, other more pressing needs and aren't just stocked to the gills with picks, it becomes more of a luxury pick at a point where it's hard to justify taking a luxury pick.
That's my 2 cents. Fun idea, obvious benefits when done right, not worth force-fitting.
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I feel about the Big Nickel a lot like I feel about drafting a 1T. We could certainly use it, bordering on calling it a need, but unless it's a truly special player (would've LOVED to somehow get Simmons last year), I don't think it's something worth throwing a valuable pick at. I could probably be convinced that JOK is special enough to take at 30, but he's not worth trading up for. Behind him though...
- Naz in the 3rd (or possibly w/ a trade back from 61) would potentially be interesting (but probably not happening)
- Mukuamu possibly trading back from our 3?
- Stephens and Deablo maybe with one of our 5s?
The big Nickel is a fun concept that makes a lot of sense as a counter to a lot of the biggest offensive trends in football, and obviously McD is more or less the inventor of the role, so there's plenty of logical connections that are easy to make for why we'd do it. But just because a guy is too small to play linebacker and too slow to be a true safety doesn't mean he's going to automatically be a fit for that role. If a guy we like is at or near the top of the board for one of our picks and there's not a more glaring need for it, by all means let's do it. But I think the hype around here of just assuming it's on the shopping list because we don't have one is maybe getting out over our skis a little much.
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Almost posted this same question earlier today. I’d love to take a chance on Hooker.
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Devine Deablo
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Young player, position of need, elite upside, zero risk, Pro Bowl caliber name. Hard to not absolutely love this one!
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Marshall wouldn't be my #1 choice in a vacuum, but I'm a big fan of mining under-appreciated value and this feels pretty likely to be the case. We've seen underrated LSU WRs pop once they get into the pros, and certainly a guy playing behind Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson would not be getting as much attention/production. Hard to argue with the measurements and definitely feels like the kind of piece that would add another element to this offense.
Wouldn't hate it at all!-
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Bears discussing trades involving WR Anthony Miller
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
More to being a deep threat than just speed. I think specifically, what we're looking for are guys who can get deep on the outside. That brings into play things like release, hand-fighting, body control, ability to mix up speeds, etc. Miller's fast enough, but from what I've seen, he's more of a slot guy and wins most often on lateral routes, as opposed to vertical routes. I could see him being a weapon stretching the seam, but I don't see him succeeding in an outside WR role, especially with Diggs and Davis in the longterm plans.