MrEpsYtown
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Posts posted by MrEpsYtown
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28 minutes ago, Virgil said:
That’s fair. I guess I just don’t believe that type of player should be a round 1-3 pick. I want this picks to be fully time starters by year two.
While I like our roster, I don’t think we are in a place for a luxury pick, which is what that feels like to me. Granted; we can’t trade in this draft, but I’d trade back and get my starting G/C or Safety.
I typically agree with this, but with the Bills they rotate guys so much that this extra high end DL is immensely important. Do I think they should rotate as much as they do? No. But they do and it’s McDermott’s philosophy and a pass rusher here is the value imo. We should be getting immediate starters early in the draft.
There are zero high end cheap, young, defensive tackles or DL on the roster. I think they could draft more than 1.
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10 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t McD not put them and Oliver on the field together? McD likes the big boy next to the rusher. So this player would back up Oliver, no?
Yes Jones and Oliver would still start. I think on run downs one of Fiske or Jenkins would be rotational with Ed, who had been around 60-70% of the overall snaps. On passing downs I would put Jenkins or Fiske on the field with Oliver and let them Hunt. So in my world this guy who would take the other 30% of run down snaps and also take all the pass rush snaps that went to guys like Phillips and Settle the last couple of years. My point is that this complimentary interior pass rush person does not exist on the roster at the moment. The value is there at this point in the draft.-
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12 minutes ago, Virgil said:
I just don’t see the point in either DT. Oliver has that spot locked up, we would want someone who can replace Jones eventually.
This is a high pick on a backup
To me it’s two fold. It’s a case of BPA, and also it’s about getting after the QB. The only guy on the roster with any interior pass rush acumen is Oliver. It is one of the most expensive things to buy on the open market and interior pressure is the best way to beat Mahomes. Jenkins and Fiske potentially give you that. I like Kitchens, but I think you can find a safety later in the draft. I would have gone Walker or one of the DTs here.
I’ll add some highlights as poll is starting to close:-
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1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:
I appreciate all the work you put into this. I still am a bit unsure that this approach is the right way to go. I understand the Chiefs WR room but I do believe they are the exception, not the rule.
Looking around the league, if your approach is the case, why are pass catchers making increasingly more and more money? Sure, the increase in cap makes a ton of impact, but guys like Chase and Jefferson are going to shatter the ceiling. Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are being paid big money. Even teams with more cap space such as the Jags are paying through the nose for guys (Kirk/Davis). Why not simply draft players with day 2 picks and spend the money elsewhere?
Production is obviously important. However I feel that when that production happens is even more crucial. I think a lot of the guys names above have shown that they can win when it matters, and for a team trying to win the SB, they can’t wait around for a rookie to hopefully be that for them.
I think prices have gotten out of control at that position, and I do think you should pay guys like Jefferson and Chase, but the cost of these guys has some collateral damage. Minnesota has to reset their QB situation to pay Jefferson. The Bengals will have to lose Tee Higgins and others to pay Chase. To me, they are the exception, they are the guys who take over games. My point is that there really isn’t much difference between a Romeo Doubs and a Gabe Davis. A team like Jacksonville keeps throwing money at the position and it doesn’t get them anywhere. When they pay Lawrence they will no longer be able to do that. But spending money on guys like Gabe, giving huge money to a Diggs or a Tee Higgins is lunacy.
Once you pay the Quarterback, I don’t think you can pay these guys as well. I think if you have a franchise QB, a real one like Mahomes or Josh etc and you can keep that guy upright, I don’t think it matters who is catching the ball. now if the Bills could find a Chase or Jefferson then they would need to do everything they can to keep them. But the only way you get a Chase is picking in the top 5 and the only way you get a Jefferson is if you get lucky and identify the right guy through scouting.
I think the Bills are resetting their cap and as you said I think they will draft a couple of young guys and spend the money elsewhere going forward. I think Kincaid is there #1 and they just need to surround him with complimentary pieces. The Bills don’t have any money and so they are going to have to go forward with the idea of waiting and hoping rookie wide receivers step up and help them win a Super Bowl. I think this is the avenue they chose when they decided to move Diggs.
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2 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:
Genuinely asking:Is the packers passing game something we should strive to be like? These are good players taken with decent selections and they’re getting good production but does that result in wins?
My concern here is, just acquiring guys who catch the football and are trustworthy only get you so far when teams line up and make you beat them. I want guys who can win 1v1 when I need them too. Especially with the increase in man coverage the bills saw in 2023, having solid players may not be enough.
793674
581
422
355352
Those are the yardage totals from the players you mentioned in the tweet. Not good enough IMO
I think it’s a fair question. In terms of man to man coverage stuff, I believe you beat man coverage with scheme. The players matter to some extend, they need to be fast and run good routes and understand leverage, but there are a number of ways to beat man and we just didn’t do a good enough job scheming guys open and getting into those concepts last season. Daboll was excellent at this. And I am not saying we need to throw a bunch of cones out there and expect wins, but to me it’s about quality and quantity, not just one uber guy who costs you 30 million dollars or a massive amount of draft capital. That’s why I love what the Packers did. They drafted multiple young, fast receivers and tight ends.
Sorry for the length of this, but I was curious as well, so I put on my nerd hat and dove deep…
So just out of curiosity I looked at the Bills top 4 WRs and two TEs and here is their production:
1,183 - Diggs
786 - Davis
611 - Shakir
150 - Harty
673 - Kincaid
186 - Knox
Believe it or not, Allen and Love both had an equal number of pass attempts.
The Packers top 4 WRs amassed a total yards output of 2,470 yards and the two TEs amassed 707, all together it’s 3,177 yards. This was done in 85 games total of playing time as both Watson and Musgrave missed a bunch of games. Zero first round picks. All first and second year players and a 1st year starter at QB.
The Bills totals for top 4 WRs is 2,630 and the two TEs amassed 859, so it totals up to 3,519. This was done in 96 games of playing time as Knox missed some games. 1st round picks spent on Diggs and Kincaid. Kincaid and Shakir are first/second year players, the other Bills guys are vets. (Diggs, Harty, Davis, Knox). Plus an all world veteran QB.
The Bills’ group, in 2023, cost about 32 million in cap with Shakir being the cheapest player. The Packers’ group cost about 7.5 million dollars. I guess my point is, is the extra 342 yards in 11 more games worth 24.5 million dollars in cap? I don’t think so. In analytics, a yard is a yard. It’s moneyball, this number one receiver stuff, to me, is old school thinking. A catch is a catch. You just need good players with speed and some ability to run routes and get open against leverage.
In both cases, it wasn’t enough as both teams lost in the divisional round. The Packers just did it in a much cheaper way.
Let’s look at the team who did actually win it all, KC:
Top 4 WR:
Rice - 938
Watson - 460
MVS - 315
Moore - 244
TEs:
984 - Kelce
305 - Gray
The Chiefs WRs totaled 1957, and the TEs totaled 1289 for a total of 3246. This less than the Bills totals in more attempts by Mahomes. This was done in 94 total games. The Chiefs receiver and TE groups cost about 29 million, 26 of which is just Kelce and Valdes-Scantling. Zero first round picks.
To me the idea of a number 1 must have receiver is an antiquated concept. You can get the same amount of production much cheaper. The problem with the Bills model is they were paying guys who weren’t good enough. Diggs did not really produce enough to get this team to a championship and Knox is overpaid as well. Harty was a waste.
The Packers went to this model because they carried 57 million in dead cap this past year, and I believe that is where the Bills are headed. It’s not about massive amounts of trade up capital to get into the top 5. They can get a really good player in the 20s who improves the receiver room and helps make up for the catches that left with Diggs, Davis, and Harty. And they have the opportunity to complete this mission in a much more cost friendly way.
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13 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:
Tez Walker all day every day and twice on the 2nd day of the draft lol...People sleeping on this dude.
8 minutes ago, mrags said:Love me some Walker. I would pull the trigger depending on what we did in the 1st rd. But after taking Mitchell I think I’d wait until the 3rd rd and maybe try and trade up for him.
Walker seems like a kid this braintrust has been following awhile. Being from the Charlotte area, Beane probably watched him play in middle school. I would not hate doubling down with him in the second.-
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2 minutes ago, Low Positive said:
Speaking of former Steeler almost-star WRs, Chase Claypool is still a FA. How about him? /s
I have two memories of Claypool that stick in my head…signaling a first down and wasting time when his team was trying ti spike the thing…-100 awareness and selfishness. The other memory is running a slow, lazy, terrible route getting undercut by Taylor Rapp and costing his team a chance at victory.-
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1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
There are no “number 1s” in that group. I keep spamming the board that this idea of a #1 is overdone. You just need good players who catch the football and are trustworthy to go with your awesome QB. It’s even better if they are dirt cheap, which is what the Packers have done here. -
1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:
Attempted murder of an opposing fan. He should be fine.
Watson needs a running mate -
He’s way more of a diva than Diggs ever was and he isn’t as good. He’s a zero effort player who can’t catch.
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
Trice is similar to the AJE we drafted in that he is just a big powerful bull rusher. My worry with all 3 of those edge guys if we are talking purely Bills fits is I think they might all ideally project better as 3-4 outside linebackers. I have said before and I will repeat here if the Bills don't get one of the top 3 or 4 (depending how you feel on Chop) guys in round 1 (and I think now we are DEFINITELY going WR) then I'd pass on edge in this class until they get into day 3 shot in the dark territory. When there are a few guys worth a punt on. It is not a deep edge group.
Makes a ton of sense. I think they are actually in good shape there where they maybe don’t have to force it. IMO there is something about Trice, I just think he makes it and I think he would be fine at a base end.
Fiske and Jenkins both 3 techs? I feel like they would opt for the bloodlines and the 34 inch arms if it came down to it.
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40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
No skin off my nose I'd have offered them to @Virgil for the Bills poll in any event:
2 RBs - Brooks and Benson
1 TE - Sanders
1 IOL - Haynes
2 DTs - Fiske and Jenkins
3 EDGE - Trice, Braswell and Isaac
2 CBs - Tampa and James
1 S - Bullock
Trice is a great fit for the Bills defense. He is similar to AJ Epenesa. Very productive, big and long, and had a terrible combine. He’s a disruptive pass rusher with a big motor. Braswell is the much more explosive athlete, but he’s smaller. Issac is a meh for me. If i’m picking I take Trice. I feel like he plays way faster than he tested.
Jenkins makes a ton of sense with them knowing him all the way back to when dad was playing for the Panthers. And Jenkins is a great fit. I also like Fiske as you mentioned.
Where do you have Marshawn Kneeland?
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32 minutes ago, TPS said:
I wouldn't call this a ringing endorsement of your argument given it took a miracle reception by David Tyree to upset the Patriots and ruin their almost perfect season.
That’s true. Having Moss took things to an overload level for the Pats! It’s when they were at their best, freak catch or not, they still did not win! But crazy things happen in these championship games like the refs deciding that the Chiefs were allowed to hold on offense!-
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24 minutes ago, Sweats said:
I think the media is over-blowing and hyping our needs way more than what we actually need.
What annoys me is the this notion of a #1 receiver. The Chiefs won the last two championships without much at receiver but a TE who was a threat. The Niners have a #1 receiver who is a slot guy and is hurt a-lot. The Patriots won all those years without a real #1 and the time that they had one in Randy Moss they lost to the Giants. The Eagles won one with a backup QB and Zach Ertz.
I think it is just an overrated notion that we need a big X or whatever. Erhardt-perkins doesn’t even really have these traditional receiver positions built in. It’s about concepts and you have an outside guy and an inside guy. In trips you have an outside guy, and inside guy and a middle guy and they run different routes depending on the concept called and the coverage.
We just need good players who can run routes and be where they are supposed to be. If you can get a game breaker who the defense has to double, thats amazing.
How many true #1s are there in the league anyway? Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase…CeeDee Lamb and Amon Ra St. Brown probably but they are really slot players. Davante Adams probably, but he is slowing down as is Cooper Kupp and I need to see Nacua repeat this year before I annoint him. Deebo, but he is a slot/gadget guy. This notion that you need a true number 1 is a myth. There are like 5-6 teams in the league with true #1 receivers imo.
Just give your all world QB weapons that are reliable, catch the football, and play within the system.
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Just watching the combine on the ole DVR. Leggette is just built different from everyone else. His physique is impressive, but looks a little stiff in drills. Coleman probably next most impressive pysique. Franklin looks anorexic. Mitchell looks the part. Jacob Cowing is impressive as well. McKonkey is silky smooth.
And our WR coach is running drills down there getting a first hand look.
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100% drafting one in the first round. Brian Thomas is the somewhat attainable trade up dream, and to me the best fit after the top 3. Otherwise I like pretty much everyone in that next tier. I would also consider drafting another guy in the second or the 4th.
But I think they should add another guy.
Free agency falls in tiers with
30 something vets who were once big time:
OBJ
Michael Thomas
Allen Robinson
Big with Speed:
MVS
Jalen Guyton
Michael Gallup
DJ Chark
Small with speed:
Mecole Hardman
Scotty Miller
What I would do? Trade for Terrance Marshall. He’s fallen behind Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen as well as John Mingo. Marshall is big and fast, a former second round pick who played for Brady at LSU and in Carolina. He needs a fresh start badly and he should cost nothing. Maybe a late round pick swap. 6-2, 205, runs 4.4 and plays outside, can play inside. They don’t have a sixth and we have two of them. Maybe swap a sixth for their seventh. They have been trying to trade him, he is unhappy, you have the fit with Brady and you have Dan Morgan down there. Give him a fresh start.
So:
1st round rookie
Samuel
Shakir
Marshall or second draft pick
Hollins
Hardman or another speed free agent
Shorter
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10 hours ago, wolfpack78 said:
Take a flier on Michael Thomas on a one year prove it deal.
I don’t hate it. He knows the offense and he has something to prove. He doesn’t stretch the field, but if he’s healthy he can ball. -
Drew Haddad. Really miss that dude
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2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Nah, I still wouldve taken a lot more Diggses...es on the 2020-2022 Bills. He was great while he was here, until he wasnt. All that stuff doesnt change that.
Ha! I think Dallas makes a lot more sense, but anything is possible.
Perhaps when Trevon Diggs gets cut after another lackluster injury riddled season they can go be somewhere as a package deal-
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26 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Makes sense, lol
I’m sure he will just sign with them after 1 year with the Texans. It’s like Brett Favre and the Vikings. -
1 hour ago, PonyBoy said:
Off topic..
I worked with a guy years ago in a physical trade industry who's last name was Sweat. Lazy MF'er.
His nickname was Don't Breaka 😀
Stay gold Ponyboy. Stay gold-
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9 minutes ago, H2o said:
Passed over Payton Wilson to take Cooper?
Some people have Cooper over Wilson, they are both super athletic, Wilson has more experience and was way more productive. Cooper doesn’t have the injury red flags. I think it’s a pick your flavor situation. DJ has Cooper as the 26th best player in the draft.-
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21 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
With the 39th pick the Carolina Panthers select Zach Frazier, Center, West Virginia. @Alphadawg7 is now on the clock.
Center is a gaping hole was a consideration at 33. With a small qb interior oline is vital imo. Frazier would be a home run.
Ohh nice fit there. Perfect spot.
If Rex Ryan had not been fired, and we still drafted Josh Allen...
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
If Rex and Whaley stayed they would have drafted Deshaun Watson in the first round in 2017