Shaw66
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Posts posted by Shaw66
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1 minute ago, Luxy312 said:
He's not under contract with Washington. He's an unrestricted free agent. Washington hasn't tagged him either, so they have no rights.
He's not an unrestricted free agent until the period ends for the Redskins to franchise him. I think that's early March. Until then, he is exclusively Washington property. As others have said, he only can talk to other teams if the Redskins gave him permission, which may have happened. However, it's interesting that if Washington gave him permission, say, a week ago, that that information didn't leak out.
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I would also expect Cousins to do his search more deliberately than this. Washington didn't tell him to look for a deal until they locked up Smith, at least I wouldn't think so, so that means Cousins made a decision really fast. Maybe he knew all along.
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1 minute ago, TheTruthHurts said:
I'm guessing Cousins gets traded. I don't think you need to make public if permission was given to talk to other teams.
Thanks. Those are both good points. But can he get traded if he isn't under contract for 2018? He isn't under contract until he's franchised and he's signed.
It may be true, but it seems kind of odd in this situation.
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I don't get it. Did the Redskins cut Cousins? If not, he can't be talking to Denver; it violates his contract with Washington. It's tampering. And if they DID cut him, doesn't Denver talking to him violate the free agency rules? What am I missing?
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14 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:
Maybe no love because he is overrated? Franchise QB's are hard to come by, but you let Cousins walk?
Maybe Washington is wrong and the guy is better than sliced bread.
Look, are we having a conversation, or are you just arguing because you like to argue?
Yes, Kelly wasn't committed to Buffalo and it worked out okay. But the Bills OWNED THE RIGHTS to Kelly, and if Kelly wanted to play in the NFL he HAD to play in Buffalo. If he had been a free agent, he never would have signed in Buffalo. Cousins is completely different. He IS or will be a free agent, so the fact that he doesn't feel a commitment to Washington is a big deal.
I don't care if you lived in the midwest and didn't like it. You aren't on the shortlist of QBs the Bills are interested in. Cousins is the one who matters, and he's a down-to-earth, hard-working midwest boy. Born there, raised there, went to high school and college there. I'm guessing he doesn't like the east. And, as someone else pointed out, the Redskins didn't exactly show him a lot of love when they talked contract.
You asked me how can he be that good if Washington is giving up on him, and I answered - because he doesn't want to be there, not because Washington doesn't want him. Your response? Why is Washington giving up on him?
Come up with something better.
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23 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:
Washington is dumping him for Smith. What are you seeing that Washington isn't?
Why not trade for Foles?
You have to read other things I've written at length.
First, there's no way Cousins isn't better than Taylor. He's a pocket passer with enough mobility as a guy needs these days. His numbers have been significantly better than Taylor's for three years. His three-year numbers are top 10 in the league.
Second, he fits the McDermott philosophy. He's smart, hard working, believes that winning is a process and he's personally dedicated to process. He's the kind of guy who in a system with five-year continuity will get better each year, because he learns more and more.
Washington is dumping him because he doesn't want to be there. They mismanaged their relationship with him, and I suspect he's told them he'll listen to their offer but he's certainly going to listen to others. Translation: if your offer isn't the very best, I'm leaving for someplace that suits me better. I don't know any of that, but that's my sense. He's a hard-working midwest guy who isn't at home in east coast bull ****. I think he wants out.
So it's not so much that Washington doesn't want him, but they aren't willing to invest in a guy who isn't committed to them.
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I don't think that McB will be regular big spenders in free agency. I think they want to grow their own talent by getting players in the draft, undrafted rookies, guys off practice squads. Hyde's about as high as I expect them to go for free agents. I expect their free agent spending will be on role players.
Except QB. They might spend big on a QB.
So that makes me think that they don't need to blow up the roster except to the extent that they need cap room to buy a QB, if they go that route. You certainly don't want to unload serviceable players to create cap room that you don't really want to use. And that then makes me think that they're not unloading guys whose cap savings are under $4 million. Why move a guy who's useful to you if you don't need the room.
Seems to me Taylor, Glenn and Clay are the guys who are at risk.
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2 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:
I don't want any of the Minnesota guys (bridgewater..how is the knee and stat wise taylor is just as good, Bradford yeah this guy cant even stay healthy, Keenum lightning in a bottle maybe?)
Smith interested me but that option is done with the trade
The guy I liked coming out of college watching a lot of big ten games is the guy I really hope the back the truck up to make sure they get in Cousins. They did this for a DE and that didn't work out that great but when a guy who is arguably around top ten you make your move. Now this should not stop the franchise form drafting QB's the same way the Pats do it every year and they have Brady but if you going to pay for a position QB is it.
I only listed the FA way because I think the cost is way too high to move up in the draft and you are sacrificing too much with all the holes the Bills need to address with all the FA's because with one of the older rosters in the league it tells me they need fresh bodies in via the draft so moving up makes no sense. Not to mention the failure rate of first round QB draft picks
It looks exactly the same to me. I'm going to have to make a big bet somewhere, and I think Cousins is the best bet.
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3 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:
You upgrade the position while not sacrificing building a team. Smith is an upgrade over Taylor and Cousins isn't an elite QB and won't carry a team like a HOF QB. Is Smith good enough to win a SB? Maybe with the right supporting cast.
Is there a HOF QB in the draft? It doesn't appear so to me, but who knows.
I don't think so. I don't think Smith is any better Cousins, and I don't think he plays the style that McB wants, although admittedly no one knows for sure what they want. If you believe they like Peterman's style of play, Cousins is a good Peterman, and Smith is a good Taylor.
Plus, Smith won't want to be someone's bridge to a bright young rookie. That's what he was in KC this year. He'll want a quick ride to the top. If Minnesota really is in the market, Smith is perfect for them, and they're perfect for him.
Plus, Smith costs $20 million for 2018, which means you're eating more cap room than if you just keep Taylor. Granted, Smith is a better QB, by why spend $20 million to get someone who isn't your future.
I don't see these guys using a bandaid approach.
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26 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:
You want to pay the least you can so you can build a team while still having a shot at a championship. So, who fits that category. Cousins perhaps, but he won't come cheap so maybe that rules him out. The question then becomes what free agent is better than Taylor. It seems there are a few out there.
My best guess? We sign Alex Smith and draft a QB that falls to us in Round 2.
I think this is seriously wrong. There aren't enough to go around. When you find one that you think is the right guy, you pay him what it costs, and you don't pass on him because you think it costs too much. If you cheap out at QB, you get a cheap QB, and he's not taking you anywhere.
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16 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Hey Shaw. Always enjoy your stuff.
Yeah, I went off about Taylor. You did bring him up in your OP. I wouldn't have mentioned him if you hadn't. If you mention something in the OP, surely you have to expect that people might want to comment on it, sometimes extensively.
And again, it's NOT $18 million in cap to keep Taylor. It's $23 million. $18 million this year and about $5.5 mill next in dead cap when he's gone. One year of Tyrod play for $23 mill. So the other guy would have to cost $15 mill to make it the same cap hit. And Tyrod is not going to be here after that, whereas another guy could stay here as a QB whisperer/mentor. Some guys fit that role, but I don't think Tyrod fits it or would be interested in it. Tyrod isn't a good match for the Bills right now. They want a guy who can throw from the pocket consistently. Keep Tyrod and we'll hear yet more of the "adjust the offense to fit the guy who can't run the kind of offense they want to build" stuff.
And I have to disagree with you that we don't know whether this regime is the type to open their wallets. They come from Carolina, a team which handles it's cap money in a very intelligent way, frankly a Patsian way. They don't bring in big-ticket FAs. They bring in small- to middle-size contracts in FA to fill holes and they build through the draft. And in their time here in Buffalo they have been extremely abrupt about radically upgrading this team's cap status. They brought this team from moderately severe cap trouble to a team without a lot of cap money right now, near the middle of the league with around $30 mill, but with no real cap problems going forward. They traded and cut guys who were going to cost a lot in the future. They brought in low- to mid-tier FAs, doing very well with the safeties in particular. They've followed the blueprint. I'd argue we already know what kind of guys they are. They've said they want to build through the draft and they've continued playing the cap game and the FA game exactly the way the Panthers - and the Pats and Steelers and Pack and frankly the best teams year in and year out do it.
$18 million in dead cap in 2018 (not yet including Wood) shows the price they were willing to pay to get this team on a good financial footing going forward. They'll be at or very very near the top of the league in dead cap this year because they cleared the decks.
The Packers and Pats do write bigger FA checks to keep their own guys that they know fit the system, Brady and Rodgers certainly included. That's part of that FA script that the Pack, the Pats, the Steelers, the Panthers, the Niners, etc. use. You don't sign your own guys indiscriminately, but for guys at important positions in your scheme who play at a high level and already know the system, yeah, you pay the big bucks to bring some guys back. But writing a big check to keep your elite QB is a radically different thing to writing a big check to bring in a new and very expensive FA QB. When have the Pats or Pack done that, even going back 20 or 30 years to the very beginning of free agency? I just don't see it. Could be wrong of course, but I really don't think so. And as I say, I'd love to see them bring in Cousins. I just don't think they will, for these reasons.
And Carolina wrote a big check for Cam, while they both were there.
I know all three QBs were already on the team, and that made less risky than a free agent, but the point is that if those teams are McBeane's models, all three have spent big bucks on QBs. (By the way, as a complete aside, I believe Kraft and Brady have a handshake deal that Brady is going to get paid some big dollars after he retires, doing public appearances or bein a consultant or something. Wait and see.) So I'm not going to be surprised if they write a big check for a free agent. They know what QBs cost.
As for Taylor, I hear you, but I don't think the total dollars are what matter. It's the 2018 cap hit. 2019 they can afford the hit.
I'm betting the Bills will be serious contenders for Cousins, or maybe Bridgewater or possibly Bradford. I don't think they'll have any interest in trading up, and I don't think they'll like the uncertainty of pinning the next two or three years on an unproven rookie taken in the first or second round, along with a guy who is placeholder. I think McBeane are actively building, and they'll want their QB of the future on board in 2018 if they can get him So I'm expecting they'll write a big check to someone.
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9 minutes ago, Captain Murica said:
This is the one team outside of Washington re-signing Cousins I think will actually be making a conscious effort to sign him. My reasons are they have failed to develop either Petty or Hackenberg, and that being said Bowles is on borrowed time. I think he could be in the win now mind set after getting a pass for the past 2 seasons. He signed an extension, but that doesn't mean much.
Do you think the Jets are in a better position going forward than the Bills? I'd call them about even, but I don't really know.
My guess is the Cousins doesn't like living in DC and wouldn't like NYC. My guess is he'd like to get back to the midwest.
1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:I think Wood has zero effect. I believe this GM understands you can fill every other hole on the roster and until you have a Franchise QB you are pissing in the wind. The Bills are trading up. Book it.
Really depends on whether they fall in love with anyone. If they fall in love with Cousins, they pay a fortune and get him. Fall in love with Darnold, pay a fortune in picks to move up.
Anyone's guess.
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20 minutes ago, dneveu said:
Just adds to our consistent flow of dead money. We're already at about 18 million dead cap for 2018. I get that the previous regime made some mistakes - but at some point its nice to just have the player play for the money that you paid him.
The flow of consistent dead money results from two things: Some mistakes and turnover in the front office. When you have four head coaches in six years, and three GMs, there are going to be changes, and changes created dead cap money. I think the Pegulas hired Beane and McDermott for the long term, and getting to the playoffs in 2017 makes them pretty secure for the next two years and probably three. If they drop a bundle on Cousins and he doesn't bust, the dead space will end, because there won't be a lot of other big contracts. Dareus and Watkins are gone, Clay and McCoy will have run out.
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9 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
We also have 1 corner on our roster as well as many other major holes. Cordy staying put won't affect whether or not we will sign Cousins we have the money for both. With 3yrs remaining and 23mil left on his deal if healthy that's a steal for a LT in todays market.
Don't get me wrong. I'd like to keep Cordy. I don't have a problem with him. And I don't need know if they need to move him in order to have room for Cousins. All I'm saying is that if the Bills want Cousins and if they need cap room, I don't think they'll have any problem deciding to move him.
I don't think, for example, that Beane would agree with you that Cordy is a "steal" at that price. I think he'd tell you that difference between what he gives you and what a $3 million tackle gives you isn't worth $4 million. I think he'd tell you that their are only about five offensive tackles in the league he'd ever consider "steals" at some price; the rest of them aren't special enough to worry make them worth a premium over completely ordinary talent. I think he'd tell you he'd just as soon have a $35 million QB who's really good and have 52 guys worth $3 million a piece. I don't think he'd lose any sleep over losing Glenn.
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8 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
I think we only save 4.5 mil by releasing Glenn i don't think that's enough savings consideration his replacement will cost at least that much 5mil per and that's for a 3rd teir tackle.
I think you're missing the point. They won't replace him in free agency. They'll replace him the draft, and it'll cost WAY less than $5 million.
First, you have to ask "replace what?" He barely played last season, and the Bills went to the playoffs. Glenn leaving doesn't leave anything like the gaping hole Wood does, who played every snap last season. Whatever cap saving they get on Glenn is found money.
Second, they were going to be drafting linemen already, so their plans don't change much if they lose Glenn.
Third, if they write a big check to get Cousins, that's a long-term move. If they're squeezed for cap space in 2018, that doesn't matter so much. THey're fine in 2019 and beyond.
I don't see the problem.
3 minutes ago, gobillsinytown said:Is 28 to 35 mill per year the actual range that's being talked about? Wow..........Cousins is a good QB but that would be really breaking the bank.
I can't imagine it going beyond $30. But as I said, I think he'll be the highest paid in the league, so that'll put him over $25.
If you want a top 10 QB, he's the only one who's even arguably there and available. I'd expect five serious buyers, a couple dropping out along the way. That's going to push the price.
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4 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:
I hope Denver, Arizona, New York, Washington and Cleveland don’t figure that out too. A 5 team bidding war could really drive up the price.
I think in six months Cousins will be the highest paid player in the league. It's always worked that way - become a free agent at the right time.
The Pegulas have already shown us once that they aren't afraid to pay what it takes. They paid $1.2 billion for a franchise that almost everyone agreed wasn't worth more than $1 billion.
Any team that has a serious interest in the guy, any team that really wants him, goes into the auction knowing he's going to pay a price that looks unreasonably high.
The Bills have shown pretty good discipline when their players have become free agents. Byrd, Gilmore, etc. - the Bills have let them walk when the Price got too high. QB is the most important position on the team. If you see a good one, you have to expect to pay more for him than seems right.
We'll see.
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21 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
The major difference is we don't have #12 to fill the holes . But i see what your saying. This is even more of a reason to sign Cousins because they're gonna want to build this team in there image via the draft. Can't do that when u give up multiple pks in 2018 -19
That's the conclusion I've come to. These guys love picks, so if they like Cousins they sign him, unload Taylor and if necessary Glenn to give them enough cap room, draft a lot of talent this year, live through limited cap space this year, and then plug remaining holes in 2019. It seems to be the lowest risk way to go.
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11 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
When is enough enough? We keep opening additional holes on this team its gonna eventually bit them in the rear.
I really think people need to look at what Beane and McD are doing. They unloaded some of the best talent, by far, on the team - Gilmore, Watkins, Darby, Dareus, Woods. They aren't afraid to let players walk. It seems clear that they are operating very much in the Belichick model - get a lot of low priced players and teach them. When they write a big check, it's for a Hogan or Gillislee, a check that isn't too hard to swallow if the guy doesn't work out. The only place where they spend consistently is on shut down corners.
I have no illusions about Glenn being protected. McDermott will coach the players he has, and he's happy to do that.
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31 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:
If they can trade Glenn after 6/1 then they could add $11.25 million to the 2018 salary cap. Even releasing him would add $9.75 million.
Might be worth it.
We'll see, but I think this regime is very much in the Belichick model. I think their view is that four players for $4 million each are always better than one player for $12 million. I think if the Bills want Cousins and can save $10 million in cap space moving Glenn, it's happening.
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14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Tyrod's top 22 or 23, probably.
And will cost $23 mill for a year. $18 mill this year and $5 mill dead money next. For a guy who will never be the guy who can play from the pocket that they have said they want. Against $8.6 mill dead cap this year and none next year if they cut him, and $7.6 mill dead cap this year and none next year if they trade him.
I just don't think this is as difficult a decision as some seem to think.
As for what to do? I personally want them to do what they can do to trade up and get a guy early, assuming they think there's someone there they like. I want them to draft a guy who has a good shot at being a top ten guy. IMHO the difference between top ten and top five isn't very predictable beforehand, outside of the occasional Peyton Manning / Andrew Luck type guy. So if my guy turns out to be top five ... terrific, but don't hold off till there's a guy there who's predictably top five. That could be a wait for years.
And I'd love to see them get Cousins but I think you left off your decision tree their attitude towards money, which seems to be downright Patsian and Packian. And I don't mind that, it's the most likely way to achieve success in the long run. But I don't see them springing for Cousins, though I would. IMHO there's a chance though not a great one that they pick up Bridgewater or Alex Smith. I would like to see that. But the finances / trade price may well be prohibitive.
My best guess is a cheaper vet guy to be the bridge and transition into the QB mentor, a guy like Fitz or McCown.
Oh, and if they don't like what they're able to get early, I hope they deal one of this year's 1st round picks back to a crappy team for next year's 1st and some extra booty, like maybe a 3rd or 4th this year. That'd give us a shot at trading up next year.
I do agree that it's a complex decision with a lot of interesting junction points. I'm not smart enough to be anywhere near sure what they'll do.
Hi Thurm. Good to hear from you.
First, I love Patsian and Packian. Great words!!!
Second, you've gotten quite animated about Taylor, when he is at best remotely related to this thread. But since you're on the subject, I've gotta say that if your cap numbers are correct, and I have no reason to think they aren't, then I agree completely that they need to cut him. It seems completely clear that he isn't McDermott's guy for the future. If it' costs $18 million in cap space to keep him and $8 to cut him, cut him or trade him and use the cap room to acquire the QB you want long term, if there is one. But if all you're acquiring is a guy who's one or two year bridge, and if you have to pay that guy $10 million per, you haven't saved anything. Taylor can be your bridge at $10 million a year just as easily as some other guy.
But as I said, that's beside the point. The Patsian/Packsian point is the point. Dollar cost is clearly a part of the decision tree, but I talked about it more in terms of whether he's worth it rather than the question of institutional stinginess. We haven't seen this new regime to know whether they'd be willing to open their wallets for a big-time contract, so we don't know. However, the Patsian/Packian reference doesn't establish anything. The Packers did write a big check to keep Rodgers - he has the fifth highest average salary among QBs. Brady is lower, but even he is at $20 million. We don't know how much the Pats would have paid Brady if he'd insisted on what he's worth. He willingly gave up dollars to help the Pats acquire other talent.
Not saying the Bills would break the bank for anyone. Just saying I don't think we know what their attitude is about such things.
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1 hour ago, Bring it said:
Shaw, how much if at all do you think the loss of E. Wood affects our chances of getting someone like Cousins?
Would you look to FA rather than the draft to fill the center position? How to pay for it?
I wrote about this in another thread. I think Wood retiring increases the likelihood that the Bills sign a free agent QB. The retirement creates one more hole to fill. The cheapest talent is in the draft and undrafted free agents, and when you need a lot of talent, you look for cheap talent.
If you mean does it affect what Cousins is thinking, I think it does but not enough to change his mind. Cousins is looking for the right situation long-term, not immediately. He won't want to change teams again. So it's much more important to him to land with the right coach and GM; if they're right, personnel issues will be dealt with soon enough.
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13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
Im on the other side. Who ever pays him highest guaranteed contract is the team he signs with. Sure with in a few mil he will go to the best team and fit. If Cleveland offers 100 mil guaranteed and a total of 125 or 130 hes a Brown.
I don't think you get who Cousins is. He will go to the place he thinks is the best fit for him. Money won't be the deciding factor, as long as it's enough money to satisfy him.
He will think about this like Brady does. He wants to win, and that trumps the money.
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11 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
It comes down to philosophy to me. By signing Cousins you are filling the biggest need of the franchise through FA. You are going to sign him to a premium contract. You are going to be paying him more than the Elite Qbs are making. By doing so every hole on the team DT, 3 LBs, CB, Oline and Wr are going to be filled by a rookie going into next year. You may be able to get an old vetran at 1 or 2 of those positions but going into the 2018 season you are looking at starting 6 to 7 rookies. I know building through the draft is important but to me that is too much. This past year shows that there needs to be good balance and good competition. By not signing Cousins you can pretty much sign a starter in FA at each group listed including QB. The biggest contract handed out imo should be DT that is second largest hole to Qb. With Buffalo abundance of draft picks I realisticly believe Buffalo can move up on draft day and pay a high price. The actual number of picks im not sure of but it will be significant. Still what ever trade will still leave the Bills with 6 or 7 picks this year. After getting the first franchise Qb potential Qb since Kelly they will still have the ability to add 2 or 3 day 1 contributors. By filling holes in Fa they will not be desperate to find 4 to 5 starters but 1 or 2 starters and 3 to 4 depth players. Building a balanced and disciplined football you need a good balance of veteran leadership and young athleticism. The best success is to fill as many holes as you can in Fa. Look to add 2 impact players in the draft and allow time to develop the rest of the picks.
Yours is a point of view, but I don't think it's Beane's point of view. I think he's all about rookies and low-priced free agents. So I don't think he thinks that paying the premium for Cousins is "too much." Of course, I don't know, but that's what I think is going on.
Plus, if they think he's the guy, he's the guy for the next 6-8 years, and the cap hell that might result from signing him lasts only one year. My understanding is that in 2019 there's plenty of cap room.
I don't think Beane will be afraid of the price tag. I think the whole question is whether the Bills think he's the guy.
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13 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:
Fair enough points.
I've read a ton on cousins, I totally get your point.
I still don't see us ahead of Dever or AZ, but let's stop arguing about that.
I'd be happy with him.
I just don't want to put all our eggs into his basket as there's a very real chance we don't get him, even if it's equal between us, AZ and Denver that's a 1/3 shot
Absolutely. My point is that people who think that the Bills can't compete for him are incorrect. He may go to any of several teams for any of several reasons, but the Bills have as good a shot as any.
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The GM's QB Decision Tree
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Thanks. That makes sense. I'm not sold on Cousins, but I don think he's the best option to build a winner in the short term. Not a 100% option, but a better way to go considering all the variables.
I'm just guessing about the midwest, but there's a lot of evidence suggesting it could be true.
And I'm not interested in him because I think he's a Hall of Famer. I don't think he is. I think it's a mistake to say no to every candidate who isn't a certifiable Hall of Famer. You'll be waiting forever.
I'm fine if you don't think he's good enough. There's a lot of evidence to support that belief.